Detailed Predictions for: 9-Mile
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.850727, -117.972205, 5616
LZ Altitude (f): 4776
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 70 70 W 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 70 70 W 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 69 69 W 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 68 68 W 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 68 68 W 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 67 67 WNW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 66 66 WNW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 71 71 WNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 79 80 NNE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 83 86 ENE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 89 94 E 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 91 98 ESE 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 93 102 ESE 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 94 103 SE 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 95 103 S 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 96 103 SSW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 95 100 SW 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 94 97 SW 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 92 93 WSW 20 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 87 87 WSW 20 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 79 79 W 21 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 75 75 W 19 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 71 71 W 18 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 69 69 W 17 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 68 68 W 16 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 69 69 W 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 68 68 W 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 68 68 W 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 67 67 WNW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 66 66 WNW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 66 66 W 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 71 71 NW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 79 80 NE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 82 85 ESE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 87 92 SE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 89 96 SE 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 91 100 SE 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 92 101 SE 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 94 102 SSE 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 94 101 SSE 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 94 99 S 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 95 98 SSW 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 92 93 SW 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 87 87 WSW 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 81 81 WSW 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 76 76 WSW 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 71 71 W 16 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 68 68 W 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 W 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 65 65 WNW 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 65 65 WNW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 63 63 WNW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 63 63 WNW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 63 63 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 66 66 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 70 70 SW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 75 76 S 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 78 81 S 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 81 86 S 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 84 91 S 16 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 86 95 S 18 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 88 97 S 19 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 89 97 SSW 20 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 90 97 SSW 21 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 90 95 SW 23 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 88 91 SW 24 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 84 85 WSW 25 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 78 78 WSW 25 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 72 72 WSW 25 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 68 68 W 24 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 64 64 W 21 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 62 62 W 20 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 60 60 W 19 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 60 60 W 19 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 59 59 W 18 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 57 57 W 17 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 56 56 WNW 16 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 57 57 WNW 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 61 61 W 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 66 66 WSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 71 72 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 75 78 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 80 85 S 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 83 90 S 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 86 95 S 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 88 97 S 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 89 97 S 14 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 90 97 SSW 16 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 90 95 SSW 17 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 88 91 SW 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 82 83 SW 19 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 76 76 WSW 20 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 71 71 WSW 20 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 67 67 WSW 19 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 63 63 W 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 61 61 W 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 60 60 W 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 59 59 W 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 59 59 W 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 58 58 W 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 57 57 WNW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 58 58 WNW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 62 62 W 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 68 68 WSW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 74 76 SW 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 78 81 SSW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 81 87 SSE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 83 90 SE 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 85 94 SE 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 87 96 SE 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 88 96 SE 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 90 97 SSE 12 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 90 95 S 12 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 89 92 S 12 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 85 86 S 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 79 79 SW 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 74 74 WSW 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 70 70 WSW 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 67 67 W 12 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 65 65 W 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 63 63 W 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 62 62 WNW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 62 62 WNW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 61 61 WNW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 61 61 WNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 62 62 WNW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 67 67 NNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 73 73 NNE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 78 80 ENE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 81 84 E 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 83 89 ESE 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 85 92 ESE 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 87 96 SE 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 89 98 SE 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 90 98 SSE 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 92 99 SSE 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 93 98 SSE 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 92 95 S 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 88 89 S 12 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 83 83 SSW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 77 77 SW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 73 73 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 69 69 W 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]