Detailed Predictions for: Telluride
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.903889, -107.82286, 12200
LZ Altitude (f): 8750
Sounding

Station:

 KGJT

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 WNW 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 49 49 NW 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 48 48 NW 6 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 39 39 NW 6 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 42 42 NW 6 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 44 44 NW 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 47 47 NW 10 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 45 46 NW 12 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 45 48 NW 14 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 47 52 NW 16 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 48 54 WNW 16 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 51 59 WNW 16 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 53 61 WNW 16 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 57 65 WNW 16 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 58 65 WNW 16 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 60 65 WNW 17 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 60 63 WNW 18 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 60 61 WNW 18 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 60 60 WNW 16 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 57 57 WNW 12 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 53 53 WNW 10 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 53 53 NW 8 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 52 52 NNW 6 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 51 51 N 5 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 N 5 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 49 49 NNE 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 47 47 NE 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 47 47 NNE 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 46 46 N 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 45 45 NNW 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 48 48 NNW 6 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 47 48 NW 8 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 48 51 WNW 9 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 49 53 WNW 10 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 50 56 WNW 12 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 53 60 WNW 12 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 55 62 WNW 13 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 57 64 WNW 14 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 59 65 WNW 14 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 60 65 WNW 14 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 60 63 WNW 14 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 59 60 NW 14 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 57 57 WNW 12 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 53 53 W 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 50 50 W 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 49 49 WSW 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 48 48 SSW 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 48 48 S 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 S 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 47 47 S 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 46 46 S 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 46 46 S 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 46 46 S 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 46 46 S 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 47 47 S 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 48 49 SW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 49 51 WSW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 51 55 W 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 53 57 W 10 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 54 58 W 11 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 55 59 W 11 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 56 60 W 12 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 57 60 W 12 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 58 60 W 12 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 59 60 W 13 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 59 60 W 13 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 58 58 W 12 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 56 56 WSW 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 54 54 SW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 54 54 SW 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 53 53 SSW 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 52 52 S 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 S 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 51 51 S 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 50 50 S 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 49 49 S 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 48 48 S 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 48 48 S 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 47 47 S 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 46 47 SSW 11 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 46 48 SSW 13 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 47 51 SSW 14 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 48 53 SW 17 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 50 56 SW 18 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 52 58 SW 19 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 53 59 SW 20 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 55 60 SW 20 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 56 60 WSW 20 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 56 58 WSW 21 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 52 53 WSW 23 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 50 50 WSW 19 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 48 48 WSW 16 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 46 46 WSW 13 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 45 45 SW 12 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 44 44 SSW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 44 44 S 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 S 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 41 41 S 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 40 40 S 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 40 40 S 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 40 40 S 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 40 40 S 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 41 41 SSW 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 42 43 WSW 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 44 47 W 6 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 45 50 W 8 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 47 54 W 10 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 48 55 W 11 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 50 58 W 12 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 51 59 W 13 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 53 60 W 14 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 54 59 W 16 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 54 57 WNW 17 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 53 54 WNW 17 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 52 52 WNW 14 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 49 49 W 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 47 47 W 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 46 46 WSW 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 45 45 SSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 45 45 S 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 43 43 S 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 42 42 SSE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 41 41 SSE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 41 41 SSE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 41 41 SSE 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 42 42 SSE 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 43 43 S 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 44 45 SSW 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 46 49 SW 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 48 53 WSW 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 49 55 WSW 9 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 51 57 W 10 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 52 59 W 11 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 54 61 W 13 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 55 61 W 14 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 56 60 W 16 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 56 59 W 17 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 56 57 W 17 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 54 54 W 14 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 52 52 W 12 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 49 49 W 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 48 48 WSW 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 47 47 S 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]