SoaringPredictor for Mt Crested Butte

Detailed Predictions for: Mt Crested Butte
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 38.94, -106.9656, 11500
LZ Altitude (f): 8700

Sounding
Station:	KGJT
Date/Time UTC:	N/A
Temp/Wind data from:	NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts

Time (Local)	High Temp	Puddle Temp	Wind (mph)	Wind Gust	Thermal Ceiling (ft)	Soaring Ceiling (ft)	Above Launch (ft)	Thermal Type	Thermal Index (F)
12 Midnight Wed	50	50	NW 5	19	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 AM Wed	49	49	NW 5	19	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 AM Wed	42	42	NW 5	19	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 AM Wed	39	39	NW 5	18	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 AM Wed	42	42	NW 4	17	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 AM Wed	44	44	NW 4	17	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 AM Wed	46	46	NW 5	19	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 AM Wed	54	55	WNW 6	23	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 AM Wed	62	65	WNW 8	25	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 AM Wed	66	71	WNW 9	25	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 AM Wed	69	76	WNW 10	24	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 AM Wed	72	80	WNW 10	24	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Noon Wed	73	82	WNW 11	24	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 PM Wed	74	82	WNW 12	24	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 PM Wed	75	82	WNW 12	24	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 PM Wed	76	81	WNW 13	25	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 PM Wed	76	79	WNW 13	26	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 PM Wed	75	76	WNW 12	26	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 PM Wed	72	72	WNW 11	25	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 PM Wed	66	66	NW 9	23	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 PM Wed	60	60	NW 6	20	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 PM Wed	56	56	NW 5	19	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 PM Wed	53	53	NNW 4	18	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 PM Wed	50	50	NNW 3	16	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Midnight Thu	47	47	NNW 2	13	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 AM Thu	46	46	N 2	10	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 AM Thu	44	44	N 1	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 AM Thu	43	43	N 1	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 AM Thu	42	42	NNW 1	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 AM Thu	41	41	NNW 2	8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 AM Thu	45	45	NW 2	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 AM Thu	53	54	WNW 3	12	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 AM Thu	61	64	W 3	14	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 AM Thu	66	70	W 4	17	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 AM Thu	69	75	WNW 5	18	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 AM Thu	71	78	WNW 6	19	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Noon Thu	72	80	WNW 8	20	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 PM Thu	73	80	WNW 9	20	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 PM Thu	74	80	WNW 10	20	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 PM Thu	76	81	WNW 10	21	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 PM Thu	76	79	WNW 10	21	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 PM Thu	74	75	WNW 9	21	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 PM Thu	70	70	NW 6	18	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 PM Thu	63	63	NW 5	14	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 PM Thu	57	57	NW 3	11	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 PM Thu	53	53	NNW 3	10	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 PM Thu	50	50	NNE 2	11	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 PM Thu	49	49	NE 2	11	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Midnight Fri	48	48	ENE 2	10	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 AM Fri	47	47	ESE 2	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 AM Fri	45	45	SSE 1	8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 AM Fri	43	43	SSE 1	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 AM Fri	42	42	S 1	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 AM Fri	43	43	S 1	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 AM Fri	49	49	SSW 1	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 AM Fri	57	58	SW 2	8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 AM Fri	64	67	WSW 2	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 AM Fri	70	74	WSW 3	11	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 AM Fri	73	79	W 4	14	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 AM Fri	75	81	W 5	17	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Noon Fri	76	83	W 6	18	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 PM Fri	76	82	W 8	18	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 PM Fri	76	82	WNW 8	19	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 PM Fri	77	81	W 9	19	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 PM Fri	77	79	W 9	20	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 PM Fri	75	76	W 8	20	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 PM Fri	71	71	W 6	18	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 PM Fri	66	66	W 4	14	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 PM Fri	61	61	WSW 3	11	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 PM Fri	57	57	SW 2	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 PM Fri	55	55	S 1	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 PM Fri	53	53	S 1	8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Midnight Sat	52	52	S 1	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 AM Sat	50	50	S 1	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 AM Sat	48	48	S 1	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 AM Sat	46	46	S 1	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 AM Sat	44	44	SSE 1	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 AM Sat	45	45	SSE 1	8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 AM Sat	50	50	S 2	10	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 AM Sat	56	57	SSW 3	13	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 AM Sat	62	64	SW 4	17	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 AM Sat	66	70	WSW 6	19	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 AM Sat	69	74	WSW 9	21	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 AM Sat	70	76	WSW 11	23	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Noon Sat	71	77	WSW 12	24	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 PM Sat	72	78	W 13	24	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 PM Sat	73	78	W 13	25	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 PM Sat	74	78	W 14	27	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 PM Sat	74	76	W 14	29	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 PM Sat	74	75	W 16	31	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 PM Sat	68	68	W 13	26	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 PM Sat	62	62	W 10	23	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 PM Sat	58	58	W 8	19	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 PM Sat	54	54	W 5	16	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 PM Sat	51	51	W 3	13	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 PM Sat	49	49	W 2	11	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Midnight Sun	46	46	W 2	10	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 AM Sun	44	44	NW 2	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 AM Sun	43	43	NW 2	8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 AM Sun	40	40	WNW 2	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 AM Sun	39	39	SW 1	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 AM Sun	40	40	S 1	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 AM Sun	46	46	SSW 2	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 AM Sun	54	55	WSW 3	12	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 AM Sun	61	64	W 4	14	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 AM Sun	65	70	W 5	16	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 AM Sun	68	75	W 8	17	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 AM Sun	70	77	W 9	18	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Noon Sun	72	80	W 10	18	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 PM Sun	72	79	W 10	19	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 PM Sun	73	79	W 10	19	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 PM Sun	74	79	W 10	20	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 PM Sun	74	77	WNW 10	21	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 PM Sun	73	74	WNW 10	21	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 PM Sun	69	69	WNW 9	19	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 PM Sun	62	62	NW 6	16	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 PM Sun	57	57	NNW 4	12	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 PM Sun	53	53	N 3	11	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 PM Sun	50	50	NE 2	10	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 PM Sun	48	48	ENE 2	10	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Midnight Mon	46	46	ENE 2	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 AM Mon	44	44	E 1	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 AM Mon	43	43	E 1	8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 AM Mon	41	41	ESE 1	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 AM Mon	39	39	ESE 1	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 AM Mon	40	40	ESE 1	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 AM Mon	46	46	SE 1	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 AM Mon	54	55	S 1	8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 AM Mon	62	65	SSW 2	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 AM Mon	66	71	SSW 3	10	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 AM Mon	70	76	WSW 4	12	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 AM Mon	72	78	W 5	14	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Noon Mon	74	81	W 6	17	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 PM Mon	75	82	WNW 8	18	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 PM Mon	75	81	WNW 9	19	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 PM Mon	76	80	WNW 9	20	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 PM Mon	77	80	WNW 9	21	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 PM Mon	76	77	WNW 9	21	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 PM Mon	71	71	NW 8	20	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 PM Mon	65	65	NW 6	17	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 PM Mon	59	59	NNW 5	14	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 PM Mon	55	55	N 4	12	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 PM Mon	52	52	NNE 3	10	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only. No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates. These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying. Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released. If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid. Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST). If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level. We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes. Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate. Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink. It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website. Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature.

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun. When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air. The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals. A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable. Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates.

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]