Detailed Predictions for: Tiger Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 1830
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

21 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 59 59 S 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 S 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 58 S 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 59 S 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 60 60 S 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 60 S 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 61 61 SW 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 62 62 SW 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 62 62 SW 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 63 63 S 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 63 63 S 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 64 64 S 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 63 63 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 63 63 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 63 63 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 60 60 W 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 57 W 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 56 W 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 56 NE 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 NE 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 55 NE 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 SE 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 54 SE 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 54 SE 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 53 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 53 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 55 S 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 57 57 S 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 58 S 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 60 61 N 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 62 63 N 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 63 64 N 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 64 66 N 7 2398 2388 558 Blue 2
3 PM Thu 66 68 N 7 2409 2393 563 Blue 4
4 PM Thu 66 67 N 7 2404 2388 558 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 66 67 N 7 2404 2388 558 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 66 66 N 7 2398 2388 558 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 65 65 N 7 2393 2388 558 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 61 61 N 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 57 57 N 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 55 55 N 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 55 55 NE 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 NE 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 54 NE 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 53 53 NE 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 53 NE 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 52 NE 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 52 NE 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 51 NE 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 52 NE 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 54 NE 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 55 NE 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 59 NE 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 59 60 NW 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 62 64 NW 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 63 65 NW 6 2393 2388 558 Blue 1
2 PM Fri 65 67 NW 6 2404 2388 558 Blue 3
3 PM Fri 66 67 NW 6 2404 2388 558 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 67 68 NW 6 2409 2393 563 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 66 67 N 5 2404 2388 558 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 67 67 N 5 2404 2388 558 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 66 66 N 5 2398 2388 558 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 62 62 N 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 58 58 N 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 55 N 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 55 E 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 55 E 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 54 E 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 54 E 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 53 E 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 52 E 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 51 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 52 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 54 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 55 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 59 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 59 61 SW 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 62 64 SW 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 63 66 SW 7 2398 2388 558 Blue 2
2 PM Sat 65 68 SW 7 2409 2393 563 Blue 4
3 PM Sat 66 68 SW 7 2409 2393 563 Blue 4
4 PM Sat 67 69 SW 7 2414 2398 568 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 67 68 SW 1 2409 2393 563 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 67 67 SW 1 2404 2388 558 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 66 66 SW 1 2398 2388 558 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 63 63 SW 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 60 60 SW 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 58 58 SW 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 57 57 NE 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 NE 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 57 NE 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 56 NE 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 56 NE 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 55 NE 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 55 SE 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 54 SE 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 54 SE 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 56 SE 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 58 SE 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 59 59 SE 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 61 62 E 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 63 65 E 2 2393 2388 558 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 64 66 E 2 2398 2388 558 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 65 67 E 2 2404 2388 558 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 67 69 E 2 2414 2398 568 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 67 68 E 2 2409 2393 563 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 67 68 N 5 2409 2393 563 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 67 67 N 5 2404 2388 558 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 66 66 N 5 2398 2388 558 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 62 62 N 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 58 58 N 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 56 N 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 56 E 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 E 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 55 E 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 54 E 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 E 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 53 E 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 53 NE 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 NE 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 53 NE 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 55 NE 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 57 NE 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 59 61 NE 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 60 63 N 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 63 67 N 8 2404 2388 558 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 64 68 N 8 2409 2393 563 Blue 4
2 PM Mon 66 70 N 8 2419 2403 573 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 67 70 N 8 2419 2403 573 Blue 6
4 PM Mon 68 70 N 8 2419 2403 573 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 67 69 N 8 2414 2398 568 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 68 69 N 8 2414 2398 568 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 67 67 N 8 2404 2388 558 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 63 63 N 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 58 58 N 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 56 N 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 55 NE 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 55 NE 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 54 NE 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 54 NE 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 53 53 NE 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 52 NE 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com