Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 2350
LZ Altitude (f): 506
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

21 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 64 64 W 9 2409 2393 43 Blue 4
6 AM Wed 64 64 W 9 2409 2393 43 Blue 4
7 AM Wed 65 65 W 8 2415 2399 49 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 68 68 W 9 2430 2415 65 Blue 8
9 AM Wed 72 73 W 9 2506 2441 91 Blue 13
10 AM Wed 77 79 W 9 2740 2614 264 Blue 19
11 AM Wed 81 82 W 10 2886 2739 389 Blue 22
12 Noon Wed 84 86 W 10 4261 3065 715 Blue 26
1 PM Wed 85 87 SW 7 4766 3307 957 Blue 27
2 PM Wed 84 84 W 17 3317 2836 486 Blue 24
3 PM Wed 82 82 W 25 2886 2739 389 Blue 22
4 PM Wed 79 79 W 13 2740 2614 264 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 75 75 NW 22 2577 2472 122 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 71 71 W 12 2446 2430 80 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 68 68 W 12 2430 2415 65 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 65 65 W 7 2415 2399 49 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 64 64 W 9 2409 2393 43 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 63 63 W 12 2404 2388 38 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 62 62 W 15 2399 2388 38 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 W 14 2393 2388 38 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 60 60 W 14 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 58 W 14 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 58 W 15 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 57 W 14 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 57 W 12 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 W 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 58 W 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 60 W 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 63 64 W 9 2409 2393 43 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 67 70 W 8 2441 2425 75 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 71 75 W 8 2577 2472 122 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 74 79 W 8 2740 2614 264 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 76 82 W 9 2886 2739 389 Blue 22
2 PM Thu 77 83 W 10 3072 2788 438 Blue 23
3 PM Thu 79 84 W 10 3317 2836 486 Blue 24
4 PM Thu 80 83 W 10 3072 2788 438 Blue 23
5 PM Thu 80 82 W 12 2886 2739 389 Blue 22
6 PM Thu 77 77 W 12 2652 2539 189 Blue 17
7 PM Thu 74 74 W 10 2540 2446 96 Blue 14
8 PM Thu 70 70 W 10 2441 2425 75 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 67 67 W 10 2425 2409 59 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 65 65 W 9 2415 2399 49 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 63 63 W 9 2404 2388 38 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 W 9 2393 2388 38 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 60 60 W 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 59 W 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 57 W 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 W 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 56 W 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 56 W 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 58 58 W 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 60 60 W 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 64 64 W 6 2409 2393 43 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 68 69 SW 6 2436 2420 70 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 71 72 S 7 2473 2436 86 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 75 76 S 8 2615 2505 155 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 78 80 SW 9 2789 2652 302 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 80 82 SW 10 2886 2739 389 Blue 22
3 PM Fri 82 84 SW 12 3317 2836 486 Blue 24
4 PM Fri 83 84 W 13 3317 2836 486 Blue 24
5 PM Fri 83 83 W 14 3072 2788 438 Blue 23
6 PM Fri 81 81 W 15 2837 2691 341 Blue 21
7 PM Fri 78 78 W 16 2692 2577 227 Blue 18
8 PM Fri 75 75 W 16 2577 2472 122 Blue 15
9 PM Fri 72 72 W 16 2473 2436 86 Blue 12
10 PM Fri 70 70 W 16 2441 2425 75 Blue 10
11 PM Fri 68 68 W 16 2430 2415 65 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sat 66 66 W 16 2420 2404 54 Blue 6
1 AM Sat 64 64 W 16 2409 2393 43 Blue 4
2 AM Sat 63 63 W 16 2404 2388 38 Blue 3
3 AM Sat 61 61 W 16 2393 2388 38 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 60 60 W 15 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 59 59 W 15 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 59 59 W 15 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 60 W 14 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 63 63 W 14 2404 2388 38 Blue 3
9 AM Sat 66 67 W 14 2425 2409 59 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 71 74 W 14 2540 2446 96 Blue 14
11 AM Sat 75 79 W 14 2740 2614 264 Blue 19
12 Noon Sat 78 83 W 15 3072 2788 438 Blue 23
1 PM Sat 80 85 W 17 3742 2885 535 Blue 25
2 PM Sat 81 86 W 20 4261 3065 715 Blue 26
3 PM Sat 82 86 W 22 4261 3065 715 Blue 26
4 PM Sat 82 85 W 24 3742 2885 535 Blue 25
5 PM Sat 81 83 W 25 3072 2788 438 Blue 23
6 PM Sat 78 78 W 25 2692 2577 227 Blue 18
7 PM Sat 75 75 W 25 2577 2472 122 Blue 15
8 PM Sat 71 71 W 25 2446 2430 80 Blue 11
9 PM Sat 68 68 W 25 2430 2415 65 Blue 8
10 PM Sat 66 66 W 25 2420 2404 54 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 64 64 W 22 2409 2393 43 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 63 63 W 22 2404 2388 38 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 62 62 W 22 2399 2388 38 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 62 62 W 22 2399 2388 38 Blue 2
3 AM Sun 60 60 W 22 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 59 59 W 22 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 58 58 W 16 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 58 58 W 16 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 60 60 W 16 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 62 62 W 16 2399 2388 38 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 65 67 W 16 2425 2409 59 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 69 72 W 16 2473 2436 86 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 72 76 W 16 2615 2505 155 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 75 81 W 16 2837 2691 341 Blue 21
1 PM Sun 78 84 W 16 3317 2836 486 Blue 24
2 PM Sun 80 86 W 16 4261 3065 715 Blue 26
3 PM Sun 81 86 W 16 4261 3065 715 Blue 26
4 PM Sun 81 84 W 16 3317 2836 486 Blue 24
5 PM Sun 80 82 W 26 2886 2739 389 Blue 22
6 PM Sun 77 78 W 26 2692 2577 227 Blue 18
7 PM Sun 73 73 W 26 2506 2441 91 Blue 13
8 PM Sun 70 70 W 26 2441 2425 75 Blue 10
9 PM Sun 67 67 W 26 2425 2409 59 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 64 64 W 26 2409 2393 43 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 62 62 W 17 2399 2388 38 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 61 61 W 17 2393 2388 38 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 61 61 W 17 2393 2388 38 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 60 60 W 17 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 58 W 17 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 57 W 17 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 56 W 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 56 W 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 58 W 10 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 61 61 W 10 2393 2388 38 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 64 66 W 10 2420 2404 54 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 68 71 W 10 2446 2430 80 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 72 77 NE 7 2652 2539 189 Blue 17
12 Noon Mon 75 81 NE 7 2837 2691 341 Blue 21
1 PM Mon 77 83 NE 7 3072 2788 438 Blue 23
2 PM Mon 79 85 NE 7 3742 2885 535 Blue 25
3 PM Mon 81 86 NE 7 4261 3065 715 Blue 26
4 PM Mon 82 85 NE 7 3742 2885 535 Blue 25
5 PM Mon 81 83 W 9 3072 2788 438 Blue 23
6 PM Mon 79 80 W 9 2789 2652 302 Blue 20
7 PM Mon 75 75 W 9 2577 2472 122 Blue 15
8 PM Mon 71 71 W 9 2446 2430 80 Blue 11
9 PM Mon 68 68 W 9 2430 2415 65 Blue 8
10 PM Mon 65 65 W 9 2415 2399 49 Blue 5
11 PM Mon 64 64 N 9 2409 2393 43 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 62 62 N 9 2399 2388 38 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 61 61 N 9 2393 2388 38 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 60 60 N 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 58 58 N 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 58 N 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com