Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 2350
LZ Altitude (f): 506
Sounding

Station:

 KOTX

Date/Time:

 18 MAY 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 45 45 NW 13 2518 2456 106 Blue 9
6 AM Fri 44 44 NW 13 2495 2446 96 Blue 8
7 AM Fri 46 46 NW 13 2542 2474 124 Blue 10
8 AM Fri 51 52 NW 10 2918 2648 298 Blue 16
9 AM Fri 54 57 NW 10 5393 4012 1662 Blue 21
10 AM Fri 56 61 NW 10 12030 5725 3375 Blue 25
11 AM Fri 58 63 SW 3 13153 10635 8285 Blue 27
12 Noon Fri 60 66 SW 3 14369 12882 10532 Blue 30
1 PM Fri 62 68 SW 3 14902 13986 11636 Blue 32
2 PM Fri 64 70 SW 6 15628 14518 12168 Blue 34
3 PM Fri 64 69 SW 6 15165 14253 11903 Blue 33
4 PM Fri 64 68 SW 6 14902 13986 11636 Blue 32
5 PM Fri 64 65 W 8 14100 12283 9933 Blue 29
6 PM Fri 64 64 W 8 13829 11894 9544 Blue 28
7 PM Fri 62 62 W 8 12423 8429 6079 Blue 26
8 PM Fri 58 58 W 13 5769 4542 2192 Blue 22
9 PM Fri 55 55 W 13 4584 2903 553 Blue 19
10 PM Fri 54 54 W 13 4046 2739 389 Blue 18
11 PM Fri 54 54 NW 9 4046 2739 389 Blue 18
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 NW 9 2918 2648 298 Blue 16
1 AM Sat 51 51 NW 9 2740 2602 252 Blue 15
2 AM Sat 50 50 NW 7 2694 2565 215 Blue 14
3 AM Sat 49 49 NW 7 2648 2542 192 Blue 13
4 AM Sat 48 48 NW 7 2603 2518 168 Blue 12
5 AM Sat 46 46 NW 7 2542 2474 124 Blue 10
6 AM Sat 45 45 NW 7 2518 2456 106 Blue 9
7 AM Sat 47 47 NW 7 2566 2494 144 Blue 11
8 AM Sat 52 53 NW 7 3492 2693 343 Blue 17
9 AM Sat 54 56 NW 7 5011 3467 1117 Blue 20
10 AM Sat 57 60 NW 7 11109 5352 3002 Blue 24
11 AM Sat 58 63 SE 5 13153 10635 8285 Blue 27
12 Noon Sat 60 66 SE 5 14369 12882 10532 Blue 30
1 PM Sat 62 68 SE 5 14902 13986 11636 Blue 32
2 PM Sat 64 70 SE 5 15628 14518 12168 Blue 34
3 PM Sat 64 69 SE 5 15165 14253 11903 Blue 33
4 PM Sat 64 67 SE 5 14637 13563 11213 Blue 31
5 PM Sat 64 65 S 7 14100 12283 9933 Blue 29
6 PM Sat 64 64 S 7 13829 11894 9544 Blue 28
7 PM Sat 63 63 S 7 13153 10635 8285 Blue 27
8 PM Sat 60 60 S 7 11109 5352 3002 Blue 24
9 PM Sat 58 58 S 7 5769 4542 2192 Blue 22
10 PM Sat 57 57 S 7 5393 4012 1662 Blue 21
11 PM Sat 57 57 S 6 5393 4012 1662 Blue 21
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 S 6 5011 3467 1117 Blue 20
1 AM Sun 55 55 S 6 4584 2903 553 Blue 19
2 AM Sun 54 54 S 6 4046 2739 389 Blue 18
3 AM Sun 53 53 S 6 3492 2693 343 Blue 17
4 AM Sun 53 53 S 6 3492 2693 343 Blue 17
5 AM Sun 52 52 E 3 2918 2648 298 Blue 16
6 AM Sun 51 51 E 3 2740 2602 252 Blue 15
7 AM Sun 53 53 E 3 3492 2693 343 Blue 17
8 AM Sun 57 57 E 3 5393 4012 1662 Blue 21
9 AM Sun 59 60 E 3 11109 5352 3002 Blue 24
10 AM Sun 61 62 E 3 12423 8429 6079 Blue 26
11 AM Sun 62 63 SE 5 13153 10635 8285 Blue 27
12 Noon Sun 64 65 SE 5 14100 12283 9933 Blue 29
1 PM Sun 65 66 SE 5 14369 12882 10532 Blue 30
2 PM Sun 67 68 SE 5 14902 13986 11636 Blue 32
3 PM Sun 67 68 SE 5 14902 13986 11636 Blue 32
4 PM Sun 67 68 SE 5 14902 13986 11636 Blue 32
5 PM Sun 67 67 SE 5 14637 13563 11213 Blue 31
6 PM Sun 67 67 SE 5 14637 13563 11213 Blue 31
7 PM Sun 66 66 SE 5 14369 12882 10532 Blue 30
8 PM Sun 63 63 SE 5 13153 10635 8285 Blue 27
9 PM Sun 61 61 SE 5 12030 5725 3375 Blue 25
10 PM Sun 60 60 SE 5 11109 5352 3002 Blue 24
11 PM Sun 60 60 NW 8 11109 5352 3002 Blue 24
12 Midnight Mon 59 59 NW 8 9130 4975 2625 Blue 23
1 AM Mon 58 58 NW 8 5769 4542 2192 Blue 22
2 AM Mon 57 57 NW 8 5393 4012 1662 Blue 21
3 AM Mon 56 56 NW 8 5011 3467 1117 Blue 20
4 AM Mon 56 56 NW 8 5011 3467 1117 Blue 20
5 AM Mon 55 55 S 7 4584 2903 553 Blue 19
6 AM Mon 56 56 S 7 5011 3467 1117 Blue 20
7 AM Mon 58 58 S 7 5769 4542 2192 Blue 22
8 AM Mon 60 60 S 7 11109 5352 3002 Blue 24
9 AM Mon 60 60 S 7 11109 5352 3002 Blue 24
10 AM Mon 60 61 S 7 12030 5725 3375 Blue 25
11 AM Mon 60 62 SW 10 12423 8429 6079 Blue 26
12 Noon Mon 62 64 SW 10 13829 11894 9544 Blue 28
1 PM Mon 64 66 SW 10 14369 12882 10532 Blue 30
2 PM Mon 66 68 SW 10 14902 13986 11636 Blue 32
3 PM Mon 66 68 SW 10 14902 13986 11636 Blue 32
4 PM Mon 64 65 SW 10 14100 12283 9933 Blue 29
5 PM Mon 63 63 SW 16 13153 10635 8285 Blue 27
6 PM Mon 62 62 SW 16 12423 8429 6079 Blue 26
7 PM Mon 61 61 SW 16 12030 5725 3375 Blue 25
8 PM Mon 60 60 SW 16 11109 5352 3002 Blue 24
9 PM Mon 58 58 SW 16 5769 4542 2192 Blue 22
10 PM Mon 56 56 SW 16 5011 3467 1117 Blue 20
11 PM Mon 54 54 W 9 4046 2739 389 Blue 18
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 W 9 3492 2693 343 Blue 17
1 AM Tue 51 51 W 9 2740 2602 252 Blue 15
2 AM Tue 50 50 W 9 2694 2565 215 Blue 14
3 AM Tue 49 49 W 9 2648 2542 192 Blue 13
4 AM Tue 48 48 W 9 2603 2518 168 Blue 12
5 AM Tue 48 48 W 12 2603 2518 168 Blue 12
6 AM Tue 50 50 W 12 2694 2565 215 Blue 14
7 AM Tue 52 52 W 12 2918 2648 298 Blue 16
8 AM Tue 54 54 W 12 4046 2739 389 Blue 18
9 AM Tue 56 57 W 12 5393 4012 1662 Blue 21
10 AM Tue 57 59 W 12 9130 4975 2625 Blue 23
11 AM Tue 58 61 W 15 12030 5725 3375 Blue 25
12 Noon Tue 59 62 W 15 12423 8429 6079 Blue 26
1 PM Tue 60 63 W 15 13153 10635 8285 Blue 27
2 PM Tue 61 64 W 15 13829 11894 9544 Blue 28
3 PM Tue 62 64 W 15 13829 11894 9544 Blue 28
4 PM Tue 62 64 W 15 13829 11894 9544 Blue 28
5 PM Tue 62 63 W 18 13153 10635 8285 Blue 27
6 PM Tue 61 61 W 18 12030 5725 3375 Blue 25
7 PM Tue 59 59 W 18 9130 4975 2625 Blue 23
8 PM Tue 58 58 W 18 5769 4542 2192 Blue 22
9 PM Tue 57 57 W 18 5393 4012 1662 Blue 21
10 PM Tue 56 56 W 18 5011 3467 1117 Blue 20
11 PM Tue 55 55 W 15 4584 2903 553 Blue 19
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 W 15 3492 2693 343 Blue 17
1 AM Wed 50 50 W 15 2694 2565 215 Blue 14
2 AM Wed 48 48 W 15 2603 2518 168 Blue 12
3 AM Wed 47 47 W 15 2566 2494 144 Blue 11
4 AM Wed 46 46 W 15 2542 2474 124 Blue 10
5 AM Wed 46 46 W 14 2542 2474 124 Blue 10
6 AM Wed 48 48 W 14 2603 2518 168 Blue 12
7 AM Wed 50 50 W 14 2694 2565 215 Blue 14
8 AM Wed 53 53 W 14 3492 2693 343 Blue 17
9 AM Wed 54 55 W 14 4584 2903 553 Blue 19
10 AM Wed 55 57 W 14 5393 4012 1662 Blue 21
11 AM Wed 55 57 W 10 5393 4012 1662 Blue 21
12 Noon Wed 56 59 W 10 9130 4975 2625 Blue 23
1 PM Wed 57 60 W 10 11109 5352 3002 Blue 24
2 PM Wed 58 61 W 10 12030 5725 3375 Blue 25
3 PM Wed 59 61 W 10 12030 5725 3375 Blue 25
4 PM Wed 60 61 W 10 12030 5725 3375 Blue 25
5 PM Wed 60 61 NW 20 12030 5725 3375 Blue 25
6 PM Wed 59 59 NW 20 9130 4975 2625 Blue 23
7 PM Wed 58 58 NW 20 5769 4542 2192 Blue 22
8 PM Wed 56 56 NW 20 5011 3467 1117 Blue 20
9 PM Wed 55 55 NW 20 4584 2903 553 Blue 19
10 PM Wed 54 54 NW 20 4046 2739 389 Blue 18
11 PM Wed 52 52 W 9 2918 2648 298 Blue 16
12 Midnight Thu 51 51 W 9 2740 2602 252 Blue 15
1 AM Thu 50 50 W 9 2694 2565 215 Blue 14
2 AM Thu 49 49 W 9 2648 2542 192 Blue 13
3 AM Thu 47 47 W 9 2566 2494 144 Blue 11
4 AM Thu 45 45 W 9 2518 2456 106 Blue 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com