Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 2044
LZ Altitude (f): 120
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

21 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 56 56 S 8 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 S 8 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 55 S 8 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 55 S 10 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 57 S 10 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 58 S 10 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 60 60 S 14 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 61 61 S 14 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 61 61 S 14 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 62 62 S 10 2390 2388 344 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 62 62 S 10 2390 2388 344 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 62 62 S 10 2390 2388 344 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 63 63 SE 1 2395 2388 344 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 62 62 SE 1 2390 2388 344 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 61 61 SE 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 59 59 NE 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 57 NE 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 56 NE 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 55 SE 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 SE 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 54 SE 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 53 NE 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 53 53 NE 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 52 NE 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 52 NW 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 52 NW 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 52 NW 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 52 E 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 54 E 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 57 57 E 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 60 61 E 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 61 63 E 5 2395 2388 344 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 63 65 E 5 2406 2390 346 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 63 65 E 5 2406 2390 346 Blue 3
3 PM Thu 65 66 E 5 2411 2395 351 Blue 4
4 PM Thu 65 66 E 5 2411 2395 351 Blue 4
5 PM Thu 65 66 NE 2 2411 2395 351 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 65 65 NE 2 2406 2390 346 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 63 63 NE 2 2395 2388 344 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 61 61 NE 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 59 59 NE 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 57 57 NE 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 57 SW 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 SW 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 55 SW 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 55 SW 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 SW 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 53 SW 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 SE 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 53 SE 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 53 SE 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 53 SE 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 55 SE 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 59 SE 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 61 62 E 5 2390 2388 344 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 62 63 E 5 2395 2388 344 Blue 1
1 PM Fri 64 66 E 5 2411 2395 351 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 64 65 E 5 2406 2390 346 Blue 3
3 PM Fri 66 67 E 5 2416 2400 356 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 66 67 E 5 2416 2400 356 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 66 67 NE 2 2416 2400 356 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 66 66 NE 2 2411 2395 351 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 64 64 NE 2 2401 2388 344 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 62 62 NE 2 2390 2388 344 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 60 60 NE 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 58 58 NE 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 57 57 S 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 S 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 55 S 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 55 S 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 54 S 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 53 S 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 53 53 S 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 S 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 53 53 S 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 53 S 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 55 S 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 59 S 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 60 62 S 7 2390 2388 344 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 62 64 S 7 2401 2388 344 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 63 66 S 7 2411 2395 351 Blue 4
2 PM Sat 63 66 S 7 2411 2395 351 Blue 4
3 PM Sat 65 67 S 7 2416 2400 356 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 65 67 S 7 2416 2400 356 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 65 66 NE 3 2411 2395 351 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 65 65 NE 3 2406 2390 346 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 63 63 NE 3 2395 2388 344 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 61 61 NE 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 60 60 NE 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 58 58 NE 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 57 57 W 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 W 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 56 W 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 55 55 W 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 55 W 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 54 W 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 N 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 54 N 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 54 N 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 54 N 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 56 N 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 59 N 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 60 61 E 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 62 64 E 3 2401 2388 344 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 63 65 E 3 2406 2390 346 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 64 66 E 3 2411 2395 351 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 65 67 E 3 2416 2400 356 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 65 66 E 3 2411 2395 351 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 65 66 W 1 2411 2395 351 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 65 65 W 1 2406 2390 346 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 63 63 W 1 2395 2388 344 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 61 61 W 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 59 59 W 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 57 W 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 57 57 W 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 W 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 55 W 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 W 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 W 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 53 W 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 53 W 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 53 W 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 53 W 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 53 W 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 57 W 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 59 61 W 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 62 65 E 6 2406 2390 346 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 64 68 E 6 2422 2406 362 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 65 69 E 6 2427 2411 367 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 66 70 E 6 2432 2416 372 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 68 71 E 6 2437 2422 378 Blue 9
4 PM Mon 68 71 E 6 2437 2422 378 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 68 70 NE 7 2432 2416 372 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 68 69 NE 7 2427 2411 367 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 66 66 NE 7 2411 2395 351 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 63 63 NE 7 2395 2388 344 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 61 61 NE 7 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 59 59 NE 7 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 58 N 9 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 N 9 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 57 57 N 9 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 56 N 9 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 55 N 9 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 N 9 0 2044 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com