Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 2044
LZ Altitude (f): 120
Sounding

Station:

 KOTX

Date/Time:

 18 MAY 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 38 38 E 5 2400 2388 344 Blue 1
6 AM Fri 38 38 E 5 2400 2388 344 Blue 1
7 AM Fri 39 39 E 5 2410 2388 344 Blue 2
8 AM Fri 43 43 E 5 2453 2421 377 Blue 6
9 AM Fri 45 45 E 5 2486 2442 398 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 48 49 E 5 2586 2509 465 Blue 12
11 AM Fri 49 51 E 5 2677 2556 512 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 51 53 E 5 2816 2630 586 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 53 55 E 5 3830 2721 677 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 55 57 NE 3 4856 3245 1201 Blue 20
3 PM Fri 55 57 NE 3 4856 3245 1201 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 55 56 NE 3 4371 2811 767 Blue 19
5 PM Fri 54 55 NE 3 3830 2721 677 Blue 18
6 PM Fri 51 51 NE 3 2677 2556 512 Blue 14
7 PM Fri 49 49 NE 3 2586 2509 465 Blue 12
8 PM Fri 48 48 NE 3 2557 2486 442 Blue 11
9 PM Fri 46 46 NE 3 2510 2453 409 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 45 45 NE 3 2486 2442 398 Blue 8
11 PM Fri 44 44 SE 3 2468 2431 387 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 SE 3 2453 2421 377 Blue 6
1 AM Sat 42 42 SE 3 2442 2410 366 Blue 5
2 AM Sat 42 42 SE 2 2442 2410 366 Blue 5
3 AM Sat 41 41 SE 2 2431 2399 355 Blue 4
4 AM Sat 39 39 SE 2 2410 2388 344 Blue 2
5 AM Sat 39 39 SW 1 2410 2388 344 Blue 2
6 AM Sat 39 39 SW 1 2410 2388 344 Blue 2
7 AM Sat 40 40 SW 1 2421 2389 345 Blue 3
8 AM Sat 46 46 SW 1 2510 2453 409 Blue 9
9 AM Sat 48 49 SW 1 2586 2509 465 Blue 12
10 AM Sat 52 53 SW 1 2816 2630 586 Blue 16
11 AM Sat 54 56 SE 5 4371 2811 767 Blue 19
12 Noon Sat 57 59 SE 5 5615 4328 2284 Blue 22
1 PM Sat 60 63 SE 5 12246 6990 4946 Blue 26
2 PM Sat 61 63 SE 5 12246 6990 4946 Blue 26
3 PM Sat 62 64 SE 5 12827 9849 7805 Blue 27
4 PM Sat 62 63 SE 5 12246 6990 4946 Blue 26
5 PM Sat 61 62 E 6 11852 5569 3525 Blue 25
6 PM Sat 57 57 E 6 4856 3245 1201 Blue 20
7 PM Sat 55 55 E 6 3830 2721 677 Blue 18
8 PM Sat 54 54 E 6 3271 2676 632 Blue 17
9 PM Sat 52 52 E 6 2723 2584 540 Blue 15
10 PM Sat 50 50 E 6 2631 2533 489 Blue 13
11 PM Sat 49 49 E 0 2586 2509 465 Blue 12
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 E 0 2557 2486 442 Blue 11
1 AM Sun 47 47 E 0 2533 2467 423 Blue 10
2 AM Sun 46 46 E 0 2510 2453 409 Blue 9
3 AM Sun 45 45 E 0 2486 2442 398 Blue 8
4 AM Sun 44 44 E 0 2468 2431 387 Blue 7
5 AM Sun 43 43 S 2 2453 2421 377 Blue 6
6 AM Sun 43 43 S 2 2453 2421 377 Blue 6
7 AM Sun 44 44 S 2 2468 2431 387 Blue 7
8 AM Sun 50 50 S 2 2631 2533 489 Blue 13
9 AM Sun 51 51 S 2 2677 2556 512 Blue 14
10 AM Sun 55 55 S 2 3830 2721 677 Blue 18
11 AM Sun 56 56 S 7 4371 2811 767 Blue 19
12 Noon Sun 59 59 S 7 5615 4328 2284 Blue 22
1 PM Sun 62 62 S 7 11852 5569 3525 Blue 25
2 PM Sun 63 63 S 7 12246 6990 4946 Blue 26
3 PM Sun 64 64 S 7 12827 9849 7805 Blue 27
4 PM Sun 64 64 S 7 12827 9849 7805 Blue 27
5 PM Sun 63 63 SE 5 12246 6990 4946 Blue 26
6 PM Sun 59 59 SE 5 5615 4328 2284 Blue 22
7 PM Sun 58 58 SE 5 5238 3795 1751 Blue 21
8 PM Sun 56 56 SE 5 4371 2811 767 Blue 19
9 PM Sun 55 55 SE 5 3830 2721 677 Blue 18
10 PM Sun 53 53 SE 5 2816 2630 586 Blue 16
11 PM Sun 52 52 SW 1 2723 2584 540 Blue 15
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 SW 1 2677 2556 512 Blue 14
1 AM Mon 50 50 SW 1 2631 2533 489 Blue 13
2 AM Mon 50 50 SW 1 2631 2533 489 Blue 13
3 AM Mon 49 49 SW 1 2586 2509 465 Blue 12
4 AM Mon 47 47 SW 1 2533 2467 423 Blue 10
5 AM Mon 47 47 S 3 2533 2467 423 Blue 10
6 AM Mon 47 47 S 3 2533 2467 423 Blue 10
7 AM Mon 48 48 S 3 2557 2486 442 Blue 11
8 AM Mon 50 50 S 3 2631 2533 489 Blue 13
9 AM Mon 50 50 S 3 2631 2533 489 Blue 13
10 AM Mon 52 52 S 3 2723 2584 540 Blue 15
11 AM Mon 53 53 S 8 2816 2630 586 Blue 16
12 Noon Mon 54 55 S 8 3830 2721 677 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 55 56 S 8 4371 2811 767 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 56 57 S 8 4856 3245 1201 Blue 20
3 PM Mon 56 56 S 8 4371 2811 767 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 56 56 S 8 4371 2811 767 Blue 19
5 PM Mon 55 55 S 13 3830 2721 677 Blue 18
6 PM Mon 53 53 S 13 2816 2630 586 Blue 16
7 PM Mon 52 52 S 13 2723 2584 540 Blue 15
8 PM Mon 52 52 S 13 2723 2584 540 Blue 15
9 PM Mon 51 51 S 13 2677 2556 512 Blue 14
10 PM Mon 49 49 S 13 2586 2509 465 Blue 12
11 PM Mon 49 49 S 6 2586 2509 465 Blue 12
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 S 6 2586 2509 465 Blue 12
1 AM Tue 48 48 S 6 2557 2486 442 Blue 11
2 AM Tue 48 48 S 6 2557 2486 442 Blue 11
3 AM Tue 47 47 S 6 2533 2467 423 Blue 10
4 AM Tue 46 46 S 6 2510 2453 409 Blue 9
5 AM Tue 46 46 SE 3 2510 2453 409 Blue 9
6 AM Tue 46 46 SE 3 2510 2453 409 Blue 9
7 AM Tue 47 47 SE 3 2533 2467 423 Blue 10
8 AM Tue 49 49 SE 3 2586 2509 465 Blue 12
9 AM Tue 50 50 SE 3 2631 2533 489 Blue 13
10 AM Tue 52 52 SE 3 2723 2584 540 Blue 15
11 AM Tue 52 52 S 6 2723 2584 540 Blue 15
12 Noon Tue 54 54 S 6 3271 2676 632 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 55 55 S 6 3830 2721 677 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 56 56 S 6 4371 2811 767 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 56 56 S 6 4371 2811 767 Blue 19
4 PM Tue 56 56 S 6 4371 2811 767 Blue 19
5 PM Tue 55 55 SE 3 3830 2721 677 Blue 18
6 PM Tue 52 52 SE 3 2723 2584 540 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 51 51 SE 3 2677 2556 512 Blue 14
8 PM Tue 50 50 SE 3 2631 2533 489 Blue 13
9 PM Tue 49 49 SE 3 2586 2509 465 Blue 12
10 PM Tue 47 47 SE 3 2533 2467 423 Blue 10
11 PM Tue 47 47 SE 5 2533 2467 423 Blue 10
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 SE 5 2510 2453 409 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 46 46 SE 5 2510 2453 409 Blue 9
2 AM Wed 45 45 SE 5 2486 2442 398 Blue 8
3 AM Wed 44 44 SE 5 2468 2431 387 Blue 7
4 AM Wed 43 43 SE 5 2453 2421 377 Blue 6
5 AM Wed 43 43 S 7 2453 2421 377 Blue 6
6 AM Wed 43 43 S 7 2453 2421 377 Blue 6
7 AM Wed 44 44 S 7 2468 2431 387 Blue 7
8 AM Wed 46 46 S 7 2510 2453 409 Blue 9
9 AM Wed 47 47 S 7 2533 2467 423 Blue 10
10 AM Wed 49 50 S 7 2631 2533 489 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 49 49 SE 6 2586 2509 465 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 51 52 SE 6 2723 2584 540 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 52 53 SE 6 2816 2630 586 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 53 54 SE 6 3271 2676 632 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 53 54 SE 6 3271 2676 632 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 53 53 SE 6 2816 2630 586 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 52 52 NE 5 2723 2584 540 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 50 50 NE 5 2631 2533 489 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 49 49 NE 5 2586 2509 465 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 49 49 NE 5 2586 2509 465 Blue 12
9 PM Wed 48 48 NE 5 2557 2486 442 Blue 11
10 PM Wed 46 46 NE 5 2510 2453 409 Blue 9
11 PM Wed 46 46 NE 2 2510 2453 409 Blue 9
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 NE 2 2510 2453 409 Blue 9
1 AM Thu 45 45 NE 2 2486 2442 398 Blue 8
2 AM Thu 45 45 NE 2 2486 2442 398 Blue 8
3 AM Thu 44 44 NE 2 2468 2431 387 Blue 7
4 AM Thu 43 43 NE 2 2453 2421 377 Blue 6

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com