Detailed Predictions for: Fort Ebey
Launch Altitude (f): 251
LZ Altitude (f): 66
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

21 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 57 57 SE 20 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 SE 20 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 56 SE 20 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 57 SE 16 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 57 SE 16 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 57 57 SE 16 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 58 58 SE 17 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 59 59 SE 17 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 61 61 SE 17 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 61 61 S 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 61 61 S 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 61 61 S 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 60 60 W 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 60 60 W 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 59 59 W 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 57 57 W 18 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 56 W 18 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 55 W 18 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 55 W 18 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 W 18 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 55 W 18 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 W 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 55 W 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 55 W 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 55 N 2 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 N 2 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 N 2 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 55 NW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 55 NW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 56 56 NW 5 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 57 58 NW 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 59 61 NW 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 61 63 NW 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 61 64 NW 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 62 64 NW 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 61 63 NW 6 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 61 62 W 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 60 60 W 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 60 60 W 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 56 56 W 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 55 55 W 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 55 55 W 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 54 54 W 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 W 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 54 W 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 54 W 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 W 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 54 W 14 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 W 12 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 53 W 12 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 54 W 12 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 54 W 12 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 54 W 12 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 55 55 W 12 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 56 57 W 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 58 59 W 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 60 61 W 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 60 61 W 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 61 62 W 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 61 62 W 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 60 61 W 17 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 60 60 W 17 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 59 59 W 17 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 56 56 W 17 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 55 55 W 17 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 55 W 17 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 54 W 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 W 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 54 W 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 54 W 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 54 W 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 54 W 8 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 54 S 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 S 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 S 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 54 S 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 54 S 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 55 55 S 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 57 58 S 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 59 60 S 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 61 62 S 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 62 63 S 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 63 64 S 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 62 63 S 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 62 62 W 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 61 61 W 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 61 61 W 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 57 57 W 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 56 W 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 56 W 10 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 55 55 W 16 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 W 16 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 55 55 W 16 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 55 55 W 16 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 55 W 16 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 55 W 16 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 55 W 17 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 54 W 17 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 55 55 W 17 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 55 W 17 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 55 W 17 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 56 57 W 17 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 58 60 W 16 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 59 61 W 16 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 62 65 W 16 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 62 65 W 16 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 63 65 W 16 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 62 64 W 16 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 61 62 W 18 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 61 61 W 18 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 60 60 W 18 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 57 57 W 18 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 55 W 18 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 55 55 W 18 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 54 54 W 17 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 W 17 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 54 W 17 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 54 W 17 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 W 17 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 W 17 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 W 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 53 W 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 W 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 54 W 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 55 W 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 55 57 W 13 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 57 60 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 58 62 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 61 65 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 61 65 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 62 65 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 61 63 NW 7 0 251 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 61 63 W 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 60 61 W 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 60 60 W 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 56 W 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 55 W 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 55 W 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 54 NW 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 NW 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 54 NW 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 54 NW 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 54 NW 9 0 251 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 NW 9 0 251 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com