Detailed Predictions for: Blanchard
Launch Altitude (f): 396
LZ Altitude (f): 10
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

21 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 61 61 SE 15 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 60 60 SE 15 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 61 61 SE 15 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 61 61 S 14 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 62 S 14 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 63 63 S 14 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 63 63 SE 12 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 64 64 SE 12 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 64 64 SE 12 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 65 65 SE 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 66 66 SE 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 66 66 SE 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 66 66 S 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 65 65 S 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 65 65 S 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 63 63 SE 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 61 61 SE 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 61 61 SE 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 60 60 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 59 59 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 59 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 58 E 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 58 E 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 E 3 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 NW 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 NW 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 58 NW 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 59 59 NW 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 61 NW 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 62 62 NW 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 63 64 NW 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 65 66 NW 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 65 67 NW 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 66 69 NW 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 67 69 NW 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 67 69 NW 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 67 68 W 1 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 67 67 W 1 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 66 66 W 1 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 63 63 W 1 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 59 59 W 1 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 59 59 W 1 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 57 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 56 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 55 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 55 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 55 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 SE 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 53 SE 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 54 SE 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 56 SE 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 58 SE 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 60 SE 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 61 62 SW 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 64 65 SW 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 64 65 SW 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 66 67 SW 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 67 68 SW 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 67 68 SW 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 67 68 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 67 67 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 66 66 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 63 63 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 59 59 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 59 59 SE 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 57 57 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 56 56 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 55 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 55 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 55 SE 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 54 SE 12 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 SE 12 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 SE 12 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 56 SE 12 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 58 SE 12 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 60 60 SE 12 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 61 61 S 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 65 66 S 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 65 66 S 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 67 68 S 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 68 69 S 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 68 68 S 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 68 68 S 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 68 68 S 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 67 67 S 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 64 64 S 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 61 61 S 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 61 61 S 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 59 59 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 58 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 58 58 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 57 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 57 57 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 57 57 S 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 56 56 SW 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 55 SW 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 56 SW 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 58 58 SW 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 60 SW 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 61 62 SW 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 62 63 SW 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 65 66 SW 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 65 67 SW 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 67 69 SW 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 68 69 SW 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 68 69 SW 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 68 69 S 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 68 68 S 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 67 67 S 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 63 63 S 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 59 59 S 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 59 59 S 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 57 57 SW 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 SW 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 55 SW 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 SW 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 SW 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 SW 7 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 53 W 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 W 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 W 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 56 W 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 59 W 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 60 62 W 8 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 61 64 NW 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 65 68 NW 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 65 69 NW 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 68 72 NW 9 2390 2388 1992 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 69 72 NW 9 2390 2388 1992 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 69 71 NW 9 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 69 71 NW 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 69 70 NW 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 68 68 NW 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 64 64 NW 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 60 60 NW 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 60 60 NW 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 58 NE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 NE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 56 NE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 56 NE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 55 NE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 55 55 NE 5 0 396 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com