Detailed Predictions for: Pt Of The Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

 KSLC

Date/Time:

 18 MAY 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
6 AM Fri 56 56 NW 13 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 57 57 NW 13 5323 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 58 58 NW 13 5474 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 59 59 NW 13 5625 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 61 NW 13 6470 5474 274 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 61 62 NW 13 7449 5624 424 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 62 63 NW 25 8544 5856 656 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 62 63 NW 25 8544 5856 656 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 62 63 NW 25 8544 5856 656 Blue 3
3 PM Fri 62 63 NW 21 8544 5856 656 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 62 63 NW 21 8544 5856 656 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 61 61 NW 21 6470 5474 274 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 60 60 NW 9 5861 5324 124 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 58 58 NW 9 5474 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 56 56 NW 9 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 53 53 NW 14 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 52 52 NW 14 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 50 50 NW 14 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 49 49 W 6 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 47 47 W 6 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 46 W 6 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 45 SW 3 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 43 SW 3 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 SW 3 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 42 S 5 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 45 S 5 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 50 S 5 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 56 S 5 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 61 S 5 6470 5474 274 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 60 65 S 5 9949 7381 2181 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 63 68 W 6 11248 9887 4687 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 65 71 W 6 13654 11172 5972 White 11
2 PM Sat 67 73 W 6 14075 14075 8875 White 13
3 PM Sat 68 73 W 6 14075 14075 8875 White 13
4 PM Sat 69 73 W 6 14075 14075 8875 White 13
5 PM Sat 69 71 W 6 13654 11172 5972 White 11
6 PM Sat 68 69 N 3 11665 10324 5124 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 66 66 N 3 10390 8450 3250 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 63 63 N 3 8544 5856 656 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 60 60 N 3 5861 5324 124 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 58 58 N 3 5474 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 56 56 N 3 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 SE 5 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 53 53 SE 5 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 52 SE 5 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 51 SE 5 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 49 SE 5 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 48 SE 5 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 48 SE 5 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 51 SE 5 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 55 SE 5 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 62 SE 5 7449 5624 424 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 64 67 SE 5 10823 9397 4197 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 68 73 SE 5 14075 14075 8875 White 13
12 Noon Sun 72 78 NW 7 15120 15120 9920 White 18
1 PM Sun 74 81 NW 7 15732 15732 10532 White 21
2 PM Sun 76 82 NW 7 15936 15936 10736 White 22
3 PM Sun 77 83 NW 7 16139 16139 10939 White 23
4 PM Sun 78 82 NW 7 15936 15936 10736 White 22
5 PM Sun 78 81 NW 7 15732 15732 10532 White 21
6 PM Sun 77 78 E 7 15120 15120 9920 White 18
7 PM Sun 74 74 E 7 14286 14286 9086 White 14
8 PM Sun 71 71 E 7 13654 11172 5972 White 11
9 PM Sun 67 67 E 7 10823 9397 4197 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 65 65 E 7 9949 7381 2181 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 63 63 E 7 8544 5856 656 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 E 8 7449 5624 424 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 60 60 E 8 5861 5324 124 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 59 59 E 8 5625 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 59 E 8 5625 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 57 E 8 5323 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 56 E 8 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 56 E 8 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 59 59 E 8 5625 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 63 64 E 8 9510 6454 1254 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 68 70 E 8 13443 10752 5552 White 10
10 AM Mon 72 75 E 8 14495 14495 9295 White 15
11 AM Mon 77 82 E 8 15936 15936 10736 White 22
12 Noon Mon 81 86 S 8 16744 16744 11544 White 26
1 PM Mon 84 90 S 8 17544 17544 12344 White 30
2 PM Mon 85 90 S 8 17544 17544 12344 White 30
3 PM Mon 86 91 S 8 17743 17743 12543 White 31
4 PM Mon 87 91 S 8 17743 17743 12543 White 31
5 PM Mon 87 89 S 8 17344 17344 12144 White 29
6 PM Mon 85 86 S 13 16744 16744 11544 White 26
7 PM Mon 82 82 S 13 15936 15936 10736 White 22
8 PM Mon 77 77 S 13 14914 14914 9714 White 17
9 PM Mon 73 73 S 13 14075 14075 8875 White 13
10 PM Mon 70 70 S 13 13443 10752 5552 White 10
11 PM Mon 68 68 S 13 11248 9887 4687 Blue 8
12 Midnight Tue 66 66 SE 10 10390 8450 3250 Blue 6
1 AM Tue 64 64 SE 10 9510 6454 1254 Blue 4
2 AM Tue 62 62 SE 10 7449 5624 424 Blue 2
3 AM Tue 60 60 SE 10 5861 5324 124 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 58 SE 10 5474 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 57 57 SE 10 5323 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 SE 3 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 57 SE 3 5323 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 58 SE 3 5474 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 61 62 SE 3 7449 5624 424 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 63 65 SE 3 9949 7381 2181 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 66 69 SE 3 11665 10324 5124 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 68 70 NW 10 13443 10752 5552 White 10
1 PM Tue 69 71 NW 10 13654 11172 5972 White 11
2 PM Tue 70 72 NW 10 13865 11584 6384 White 12
3 PM Tue 70 72 NW 10 13865 11584 6384 White 12
4 PM Tue 70 71 NW 10 13654 11172 5972 White 11
5 PM Tue 69 70 NW 10 13443 10752 5552 White 10
6 PM Tue 67 67 NW 13 10823 9397 4197 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 64 64 NW 13 9510 6454 1254 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 61 61 NW 13 6470 5474 274 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 58 58 NW 13 5474 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 55 55 NW 13 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 53 53 NW 13 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 NW 5 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 50 50 NW 5 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 49 NW 5 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 49 NW 5 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 48 NW 5 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 47 47 NW 5 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 47 W 5 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 W 5 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 52 W 5 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 55 56 W 5 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 60 W 5 5861 5324 124 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 59 62 W 5 7449 5624 424 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 61 65 NW 8 9949 7381 2181 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 63 67 NW 8 10823 9397 4197 Blue 7
2 PM Wed 64 68 NW 8 11248 9887 4687 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 65 69 NW 8 11665 10324 5124 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 66 69 NW 8 11665 10324 5124 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 66 68 NW 8 11248 9887 4687 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 65 66 NW 8 10390 8450 3250 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 63 63 NW 8 8544 5856 656 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 60 60 NW 8 5861 5324 124 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 57 NW 8 5323 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 54 NW 8 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 52 NW 8 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 SW 1 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 49 SW 1 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 48 SW 1 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 47 SW 1 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 45 45 SW 1 5177 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 44 44 SW 1 5177 5200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com