SoaringPredictor for Mollies Nipple

Detailed Predictions for: Mollies Nipple
Launch Altitude (f): 4375
LZ Altitude (f): 3320

Sounding
Station:	KSLC
Date/Time:	18 MAY 2012
Temp/Wind data from:	NOAA Digital Forecast

Time (Local)	High Temp	Puddle Temp	Wind (mph)	Thermal Ceiling (ft)	Soaring Ceiling (ft)	Above Launch (ft)	Thermal Type	Thermal Index (F)
6 AM Fri	64	64	SW 16	3557	4375	0	White	0
7 AM Fri	65	65	SW 16	3781	4375	0	White	0
8 AM Fri	67	67	SW 16	4228	4375	0	White	5
9 AM Fri	69	70	SW 20	4903	4903	528	White	8
10 AM Fri	71	74	SW 20	5789	5634	1259	White	12
11 AM Fri	72	76	SW 20	6230	6230	1855	White	14
12 Noon Fri	74	80	W 23	7103	7103	2728	White	18
1 PM Fri	76	82	W 23	7533	7533	3158	White	20
2 PM Fri	78	84	W 23	7961	7961	3586	White	22
3 PM Fri	80	86	W 24	8390	8390	4015	White	24
4 PM Fri	81	85	W 24	8176	8176	3801	White	23
5 PM Fri	82	85	W 24	8176	8176	3801	White	23
6 PM Fri	81	82	W 20	7533	7533	3158	White	20
7 PM Fri	79	79	W 20	6886	6886	2511	White	17
8 PM Fri	77	77	W 20	6450	6450	2075	White	15
9 PM Fri	74	74	W 14	5789	5634	1259	White	12
10 PM Fri	71	71	W 14	5124	5124	749	White	9
11 PM Fri	68	68	W 14	4455	4455	80	White	6
12 Midnight Sat	66	66	NE 8	4005	4375	0	White	0
1 AM Sat	64	64	NE 8	3557	4375	0	White	0
2 AM Sat	62	62	NE 8	3431	4375	0	White	0
3 AM Sat	61	61	NE 3	3431	4375	0	White	0
4 AM Sat	59	59	NE 3	3431	4375	0	White	0
5 AM Sat	57	57	NE 3	0	4375	0	Blue	0
6 AM Sat	57	57	SW 3	0	4375	0	Blue	0
7 AM Sat	59	59	SW 3	3431	4375	0	White	0
8 AM Sat	63	63	SW 3	3431	4375	0	White	0
9 AM Sat	67	69	SW 3	4681	4681	306	White	7
10 AM Sat	71	75	SW 3	6010	6010	1635	White	13
11 AM Sat	74	79	SW 3	6886	6886	2511	White	17
12 Noon Sat	77	84	W 2	7961	7961	3586	White	22
1 PM Sat	80	88	W 2	8816	8816	4441	White	26
2 PM Sat	82	90	W 2	9242	9242	4867	White	28
3 PM Sat	84	91	W 6	9454	9454	5079	White	29
4 PM Sat	85	90	W 6	9242	9242	4867	White	28
5 PM Sat	86	89	W 6	9029	9029	4654	White	27
6 PM Sat	85	87	N 1	8604	8604	4229	White	25
7 PM Sat	84	84	N 1	7961	7961	3586	White	22
8 PM Sat	81	81	N 1	7318	7318	2943	White	19
9 PM Sat	78	78	N 1	6670	6670	2295	White	16
10 PM Sat	76	76	N 1	6230	6230	1855	White	14
11 PM Sat	74	74	N 1	5789	5634	1259	White	12
12 Midnight Sun	71	71	NE 9	5124	5124	749	White	9
1 AM Sun	69	69	NE 9	4681	4681	306	White	7
2 AM Sun	67	67	NE 9	4228	4375	0	White	5
3 AM Sun	65	65	NE 9	3781	4375	0	White	0
4 AM Sun	62	62	NE 9	3431	4375	0	White	0
5 AM Sun	60	60	NE 9	3431	4375	0	White	0
6 AM Sun	60	60	E 8	3431	4375	0	White	0
7 AM Sun	63	63	E 8	3431	4375	0	White	0
8 AM Sun	68	68	E 8	4455	4455	80	White	6
9 AM Sun	73	75	E 8	6010	6010	1635	White	13
10 AM Sun	78	82	E 8	7533	7533	3158	White	20
11 AM Sun	81	87	E 8	8604	8604	4229	White	25
12 Noon Sun	85	92	SW 8	9679	9679	5304	White	29
1 PM Sun	87	95	SW 8	10319	10319	5944	White	32
2 PM Sun	90	98	SW 8	10938	10938	6563	White	35
3 PM Sun	91	98	SW 8	10938	10938	6563	White	35
4 PM Sun	92	97	SW 8	10732	10732	6357	White	34
5 PM Sun	93	96	SW 8	10526	10526	6151	White	33
6 PM Sun	92	94	NE 6	10113	10113	5738	White	31
7 PM Sun	90	90	NE 6	9242	9242	4867	White	28
8 PM Sun	87	87	NE 6	8604	8604	4229	White	25
9 PM Sun	83	83	NE 6	7748	7748	3373	White	21
10 PM Sun	80	80	NE 6	7103	7103	2728	White	18
11 PM Sun	76	76	NE 6	6230	6230	1855	White	14
12 Midnight Mon	74	74	E 8	5789	5634	1259	White	12
1 AM Mon	71	71	E 8	5124	5124	749	White	9
2 AM Mon	69	69	E 8	4681	4681	306	White	7
3 AM Mon	68	68	E 8	4455	4455	80	White	6
4 AM Mon	65	65	E 8	3781	4375	0	White	0
5 AM Mon	63	63	E 8	3431	4375	0	White	0
6 AM Mon	63	63	E 8	3431	4375	0	White	0
7 AM Mon	66	66	E 8	4005	4375	0	White	0
8 AM Mon	72	72	E 8	5346	5342	967	White	10
9 AM Mon	77	79	E 8	6886	6886	2511	White	17
10 AM Mon	82	86	E 8	8390	8390	4015	White	24
11 AM Mon	85	90	E 8	9242	9242	4867	White	28
12 Noon Mon	89	95	SW 5	10319	10319	5944	White	32
1 PM Mon	91	98	SW 5	10938	10938	6563	White	35
2 PM Mon	93	100	SW 5	11348	11348	6973	White	37
3 PM Mon	94	100	SW 5	11348	11348	6973	White	37
4 PM Mon	95	100	SW 5	11348	11348	6973	White	37
5 PM Mon	95	98	SW 5	10938	10938	6563	White	35
6 PM Mon	94	95	W 12	10319	10319	5944	White	32
7 PM Mon	91	91	W 12	9454	9454	5079	White	29
8 PM Mon	88	88	W 12	8816	8816	4441	White	26
9 PM Mon	84	84	W 12	7961	7961	3586	White	22
10 PM Mon	81	81	W 12	7318	7318	2943	White	19
11 PM Mon	78	78	W 12	6670	6670	2295	White	16
12 Midnight Tue	75	75	S 6	6010	6010	1635	White	13
1 AM Tue	72	72	S 6	5346	5342	967	White	10
2 AM Tue	70	70	S 6	4903	4903	528	White	8
3 AM Tue	68	68	S 6	4455	4455	80	White	6
4 AM Tue	65	65	S 6	3781	4375	0	White	0
5 AM Tue	63	63	S 6	3431	4375	0	White	0
6 AM Tue	62	62	SE 6	3431	4375	0	White	0
7 AM Tue	65	65	SE 6	3781	4375	0	White	0
8 AM Tue	69	69	SE 6	4681	4681	306	White	7
9 AM Tue	73	74	SE 6	5789	5634	1259	White	12
10 AM Tue	77	80	SE 6	7103	7103	2728	White	18
11 AM Tue	81	85	SE 6	8176	8176	3801	White	23
12 Noon Tue	84	91	SW 13	9454	9454	5079	White	29
1 PM Tue	87	94	SW 13	10113	10113	5738	White	31
2 PM Tue	88	95	SW 13	10319	10319	5944	White	32
3 PM Tue	89	95	SW 13	10319	10319	5944	White	32
4 PM Tue	90	95	SW 13	10319	10319	5944	White	32
5 PM Tue	90	93	SW 13	9906	9906	5531	White	30
6 PM Tue	88	89	SW 21	9029	9029	4654	White	27
7 PM Tue	86	86	SW 21	8390	8390	4015	White	24
8 PM Tue	83	83	SW 21	7748	7748	3373	White	21
9 PM Tue	79	79	SW 21	6886	6886	2511	White	17
10 PM Tue	76	76	SW 21	6230	6230	1855	White	14
11 PM Tue	73	73	SW 21	5568	5488	1113	White	11
12 Midnight Wed	70	70	N 13	4903	4903	528	White	8
1 AM Wed	68	68	N 13	4455	4455	80	White	6
2 AM Wed	66	66	N 13	4005	4375	0	White	0
3 AM Wed	65	65	N 13	3781	4375	0	White	0
4 AM Wed	63	63	N 13	3431	4375	0	White	0
5 AM Wed	61	61	N 13	3431	4375	0	White	0
6 AM Wed	61	61	N 9	3431	4375	0	White	0
7 AM Wed	63	63	N 9	3431	4375	0	White	0
8 AM Wed	67	67	N 9	4228	4375	0	White	5
9 AM Wed	71	73	N 9	5568	5488	1113	White	11
10 AM Wed	74	77	N 9	6450	6450	2075	White	15
11 AM Wed	77	82	N 9	7533	7533	3158	White	20
12 Noon Wed	80	85	NW 12	8176	8176	3801	White	23
1 PM Wed	82	88	NW 12	8816	8816	4441	White	26
2 PM Wed	84	89	NW 12	9029	9029	4654	White	27
3 PM Wed	85	90	NW 12	9242	9242	4867	White	28
4 PM Wed	87	91	NW 12	9454	9454	5079	White	29
5 PM Wed	88	90	NW 12	9242	9242	4867	White	28
6 PM Wed	87	88	N 14	8816	8816	4441	White	26
7 PM Wed	85	85	N 14	8176	8176	3801	White	23
8 PM Wed	82	82	N 14	7533	7533	3158	White	20
9 PM Wed	78	78	N 14	6670	6670	2295	White	16
10 PM Wed	76	76	N 14	6230	6230	1855	White	14
11 PM Wed	73	73	N 14	5568	5488	1113	White	11
12 Midnight Thu	71	71	N 7	5124	5124	749	White	9
1 AM Thu	69	69	N 7	4681	4681	306	White	7
2 AM Thu	67	67	N 7	4228	4375	0	White	5
3 AM Thu	65	65	N 7	3781	4375	0	White	0
4 AM Thu	62	62	N 7	3431	4375	0	White	0
5 AM Thu	60	60	N 7	3431	4375	0	White	0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only. No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates. These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying. Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released. If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid. Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST). If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level. We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes. Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate. Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink. It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website. Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature.

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun. When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air. The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals. A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable. Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates.

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com