Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter
Launch Altitude (f): 9950
LZ Altitude (f): 8200
Sounding

Station:

 KSLC

Date/Time:

 18 MAY 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
6 AM Fri 44 44 W 8 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 45 45 W 8 7617 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 46 W 8 8772 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 46 46 W 16 8772 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 46 46 W 16 8772 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 46 47 W 16 9652 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 46 46 W 26 8772 9950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 46 47 W 26 9652 9950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 46 47 W 26 9652 9950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 46 46 W 26 8772 9950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 46 46 W 26 8772 9950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 46 46 W 26 8772 9950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 44 44 NW 13 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 43 43 NW 13 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 41 41 NW 13 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 39 39 NW 15 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 38 38 NW 15 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 37 37 NW 15 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 36 36 SW 6 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 36 36 SW 6 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 35 35 SW 6 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 34 34 E 3 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 33 33 E 3 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 32 32 E 3 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 32 32 NW 3 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 35 35 NW 3 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 38 38 NW 3 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 42 43 NW 3 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 45 48 NW 3 10104 9950 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 47 51 NW 3 11461 10085 135 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 49 54 W 6 14848 11424 1474 White 7
1 PM Sat 51 56 W 6 15281 14288 4338 White 9
2 PM Sat 52 57 W 6 15496 15224 5274 White 10
3 PM Sat 52 56 W 8 15281 14288 4338 White 9
4 PM Sat 53 56 W 8 15281 14288 4338 White 9
5 PM Sat 53 55 W 8 15067 12605 2655 White 8
6 PM Sat 51 52 N 2 12870 10540 590 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 49 49 N 2 10565 9950 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 45 45 N 2 7617 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 42 42 N 2 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 40 40 N 2 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 40 40 N 2 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 40 40 SE 7 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 39 39 SE 7 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 38 38 SE 7 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 37 37 SE 7 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 36 36 SE 7 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 35 35 SE 7 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 36 36 E 5 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 39 39 E 5 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 44 E 5 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 48 50 E 5 11017 9950 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 52 55 E 5 15067 12605 2655 White 8
11 AM Sun 56 61 E 5 16351 16351 6401 White 14
12 Noon Sun 58 63 W 9 16773 16773 6823 White 16
1 PM Sun 60 66 W 9 17405 17405 7455 White 19
2 PM Sun 61 67 W 9 17615 17615 7665 White 20
3 PM Sun 61 66 W 9 17405 17405 7455 White 19
4 PM Sun 61 65 W 9 17195 17195 7245 White 18
5 PM Sun 62 64 W 9 16984 16984 7034 White 17
6 PM Sun 61 62 S 3 16563 16563 6613 White 15
7 PM Sun 57 57 S 3 15496 15224 5274 White 10
8 PM Sun 54 54 S 3 14848 11424 1474 White 7
9 PM Sun 51 51 S 3 11461 10085 135 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 50 50 S 3 11017 9950 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 49 49 S 3 10565 9950 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 S 6 10565 9950 0 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 49 49 S 6 10565 9950 0 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 48 48 S 6 10104 9950 0 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 48 48 S 6 10104 9950 0 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 47 47 S 6 9652 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 47 S 6 9652 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 48 S 6 10104 9950 0 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 50 50 S 6 11017 9950 0 Blue 3
8 AM Mon 54 55 S 6 15067 12605 2655 White 8
9 AM Mon 57 59 S 6 15924 15924 5974 White 12
10 AM Mon 61 64 S 6 16984 16984 7034 White 17
11 AM Mon 65 70 S 6 18241 18241 8291 White 23
12 Noon Mon 68 73 S 12 18855 18855 8905 White 26
1 PM Mon 69 74 S 12 19057 19057 9107 White 27
2 PM Mon 69 74 S 12 19057 19057 9107 White 27
3 PM Mon 69 74 S 12 19057 19057 9107 White 27
4 PM Mon 70 73 S 12 18855 18855 8905 White 26
5 PM Mon 69 71 S 12 18450 18450 8500 White 24
6 PM Mon 68 69 S 14 18032 18032 8082 White 22
7 PM Mon 64 64 S 14 16984 16984 7034 White 17
8 PM Mon 60 60 S 14 16138 16138 6188 White 13
9 PM Mon 56 56 S 14 15281 14288 4338 White 9
10 PM Mon 54 54 S 14 14848 11424 1474 White 7
11 PM Mon 52 52 S 14 12870 10540 590 Blue 5
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 SW 16 11461 10085 135 Blue 4
1 AM Tue 51 51 SW 16 11461 10085 135 Blue 4
2 AM Tue 50 50 SW 16 11017 9950 0 Blue 3
3 AM Tue 49 49 SW 16 10565 9950 0 Blue 2
4 AM Tue 48 48 SW 16 10104 9950 0 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 47 47 SW 16 9652 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 SW 9 8772 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 47 SW 9 9652 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 49 49 SW 9 10565 9950 0 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 50 51 SW 9 11461 10085 135 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 52 54 SW 9 14848 11424 1474 White 7
11 AM Tue 54 57 SW 9 15496 15224 5274 White 10
12 Noon Tue 54 56 W 10 15281 14288 4338 White 9
1 PM Tue 54 56 W 10 15281 14288 4338 White 9
2 PM Tue 54 56 W 10 15281 14288 4338 White 9
3 PM Tue 54 56 W 10 15281 14288 4338 White 9
4 PM Tue 54 55 W 10 15067 12605 2655 White 8
5 PM Tue 53 54 W 10 14848 11424 1474 White 7
6 PM Tue 52 52 NW 12 12870 10540 590 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 49 49 NW 12 10565 9950 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 46 46 NW 12 8772 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 43 43 NW 12 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 41 41 NW 12 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 39 39 NW 12 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 38 38 NW 9 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 37 37 NW 9 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 37 37 NW 9 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 36 36 NW 9 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 35 35 NW 9 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 34 34 NW 9 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 34 34 W 8 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 36 36 W 8 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 39 39 W 8 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 42 43 W 8 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 44 46 W 8 8772 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 45 48 W 8 10104 9950 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 46 49 NW 9 10565 9950 0 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 47 51 NW 9 11461 10085 135 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 48 52 NW 9 12870 10540 590 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 48 51 NW 9 11461 10085 135 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 49 51 NW 9 11461 10085 135 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 49 50 NW 9 11017 9950 0 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 48 49 NW 10 10565 9950 0 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 45 45 NW 10 7617 9950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 42 42 NW 10 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 39 39 NW 10 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 38 38 NW 10 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 36 36 NW 10 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 35 35 NW 6 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 35 35 NW 6 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 34 34 NW 6 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 33 33 NW 6 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 33 33 NW 6 6713 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 32 32 NW 6 6713 9950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com