Detailed Predictions for: Inspiration Point
Launch Altitude (f): 6700
LZ Altitude (f): 4900
Sounding

Station:

 KSLC

Date/Time:

 18 MAY 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
6 AM Fri 52 52 W 13 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 53 W 13 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 54 W 13 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 55 W 14 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 56 57 W 14 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 57 58 W 14 5957 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 58 59 NW 24 6567 6700 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 59 60 NW 24 7650 6700 0 Blue 1
2 PM Fri 60 61 NW 24 8729 6700 0 Blue 2
3 PM Fri 60 61 NW 21 8729 6700 0 Blue 2
4 PM Fri 60 61 NW 21 8729 6700 0 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 59 59 NW 21 6567 6700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 57 57 NW 8 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 55 55 NW 8 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 52 52 NW 8 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 49 49 NW 15 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 47 47 NW 15 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 45 45 NW 15 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 E 7 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 41 41 E 7 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 40 40 E 7 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 E 5 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 37 37 E 5 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 36 36 E 5 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 36 36 S 6 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 40 40 S 6 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 45 45 S 6 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 52 S 6 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 54 57 S 6 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 58 63 S 6 10037 7591 891 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 61 66 SW 7 11339 9980 3280 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 63 69 SW 7 14109 11267 4567 White 10
2 PM Sat 65 71 SW 7 14532 13524 6824 White 12
3 PM Sat 66 71 SW 7 14532 13524 6824 White 12
4 PM Sat 67 71 SW 7 14532 13524 6824 White 12
5 PM Sat 67 69 SW 7 14109 11267 4567 White 10
6 PM Sat 65 66 SE 1 11339 9980 3280 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 62 62 SE 1 9609 6700 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 58 58 SE 1 5957 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 54 54 SE 1 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 52 SE 1 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 50 SE 1 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 E 8 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 47 47 E 8 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 45 E 8 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 44 E 8 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 E 8 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 41 41 E 8 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 42 42 E 5 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 E 5 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 50 51 E 5 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 58 E 5 5957 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 62 65 E 5 10914 9562 2862 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 67 72 E 5 14743 14743 8043 White 13
12 Noon Sun 71 77 W 6 15778 15778 9078 White 18
1 PM Sun 73 80 W 6 16391 16391 9691 White 21
2 PM Sun 75 82 W 6 16797 16797 10097 White 23
3 PM Sun 76 82 W 6 16797 16797 10097 White 23
4 PM Sun 76 80 W 6 16391 16391 9691 White 21
5 PM Sun 77 80 W 6 16391 16391 9691 White 21
6 PM Sun 76 77 E 9 15778 15778 9078 White 18
7 PM Sun 72 72 E 9 14743 14743 8043 White 13
8 PM Sun 67 67 E 9 13685 10417 3717 White 8
9 PM Sun 63 63 E 9 10037 7591 891 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 60 60 E 9 7650 6700 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 59 59 E 9 6567 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 E 12 5957 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 E 12 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 E 12 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 E 12 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 52 E 12 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 51 E 12 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 S 12 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 55 55 S 12 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 60 61 S 12 8729 6700 0 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 66 68 S 12 13897 10846 4146 White 9
10 AM Mon 71 75 S 12 15367 15367 8667 White 16
11 AM Mon 76 81 S 12 16594 16594 9894 White 22
12 Noon Mon 80 85 S 7 17402 17402 10702 White 26
1 PM Mon 83 89 S 7 18205 18205 11505 White 30
2 PM Mon 84 89 S 7 18205 18205 11505 White 30
3 PM Mon 84 89 S 7 18205 18205 11505 White 30
4 PM Mon 85 89 S 7 18205 18205 11505 White 30
5 PM Mon 85 87 S 7 17804 17804 11104 White 28
6 PM Mon 83 84 S 7 17200 17200 10500 White 25
7 PM Mon 79 79 S 7 16188 16188 9488 White 20
8 PM Mon 73 73 S 7 14954 14954 8254 White 14
9 PM Mon 68 68 S 7 13897 10846 4146 White 9
10 PM Mon 65 65 S 7 10914 9562 2862 Blue 6
11 PM Mon 63 63 S 7 10037 7591 891 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 62 62 SE 8 9609 6700 0 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 60 60 SE 8 7650 6700 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 58 58 SE 8 5957 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 56 SE 8 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 SE 8 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 53 53 SE 8 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 SE 6 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 SE 6 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 56 56 SE 6 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 60 SE 6 7650 6700 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 62 64 SE 6 10480 8643 1943 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 64 67 SE 6 13685 10417 3717 White 8
12 Noon Tue 66 68 W 8 13897 10846 4146 White 9
1 PM Tue 68 70 W 8 14321 11681 4981 White 11
2 PM Tue 69 71 W 8 14532 13524 6824 White 12
3 PM Tue 69 71 W 8 14532 13524 6824 White 12
4 PM Tue 69 70 W 8 14321 11681 4981 White 11
5 PM Tue 67 68 W 8 13897 10846 4146 White 9
6 PM Tue 65 65 NW 13 10914 9562 2862 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 62 62 NW 13 9609 6700 0 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 59 59 NW 13 6567 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 55 55 NW 13 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 52 NW 13 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 49 49 NW 13 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 NW 6 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 NW 6 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 45 45 NW 6 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 44 NW 6 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 44 NW 6 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 NW 6 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 NW 3 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 46 46 NW 3 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 49 NW 3 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 53 NW 3 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 55 57 NW 3 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 58 61 NW 3 8729 6700 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 60 64 NW 8 10480 8643 1943 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 61 65 NW 8 10914 9562 2862 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 62 66 NW 8 11339 9980 3280 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 63 67 NW 8 13685 10417 3717 White 8
4 PM Wed 63 66 NW 8 11339 9980 3280 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 64 66 NW 8 11339 9980 3280 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 63 64 NW 8 10480 8643 1943 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 60 60 NW 8 7650 6700 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 56 56 NW 8 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 53 NW 8 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 50 50 NW 8 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 48 48 NW 8 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 SE 1 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 45 45 SE 1 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 44 44 SE 1 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 43 43 SE 1 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 41 41 SE 1 5748 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 40 40 SE 1 5748 6700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com