Detailed Predictions for: Slide Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 8200
LZ Altitude (f): 6000
Sounding

Station:

 KREV

Date/Time:

 20 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Sat 31 31 SE 6 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 32 32 SE 6 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 31 31 SE 6 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 32 32 S 7 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 36 37 S 7 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 40 42 S 7 9922 9363 1163 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 43 46 SW 9 12462 10194 1994 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 45 49 SW 9 18358 12393 4193 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 46 50 SW 9 18750 13068 4868 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 47 51 SW 11 19143 17456 9256 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 47 50 SW 11 18750 13068 4868 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 47 49 SW 11 18358 12393 4193 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 43 44 SW 16 10957 9639 1439 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 40 40 SW 16 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 35 35 SW 16 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 33 33 SW 17 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 32 32 SW 17 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 32 32 SW 17 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 31 31 SW 10 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 30 30 SW 10 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 30 30 SW 10 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 30 30 SW 18 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 30 30 SW 18 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 30 30 SW 18 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 30 30 SW 16 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 30 30 SW 16 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 30 30 SW 16 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 31 31 SW 14 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 33 33 SW 14 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 36 37 SW 14 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 37 39 S 21 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 39 42 S 21 9922 9363 1163 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 40 43 S 21 10201 9363 1163 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 40 43 SW 21 10201 9363 1163 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 40 42 SW 21 9922 9363 1163 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 40 41 SW 21 9641 9363 1163 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 37 37 SW 19 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 34 34 SW 19 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 29 29 SW 19 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 28 28 SW 19 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 27 27 SW 19 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 27 27 SW 19 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 26 26 SW 18 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 25 25 SW 18 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 25 25 SW 18 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 25 25 SW 18 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 25 25 SW 18 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 25 25 SW 18 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 25 25 SW 15 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 26 26 SW 15 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 25 25 SW 15 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 26 26 SW 15 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 29 29 SW 15 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 33 35 SW 15 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 35 38 W 13 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 36 40 W 13 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 38 42 W 13 9922 9363 1163 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 38 42 W 13 9922 9363 1163 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 38 41 W 13 9641 9363 1163 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 38 40 W 13 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 35 36 NW 11 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 32 32 NW 11 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 28 28 NW 11 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 26 26 NW 11 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 26 26 NW 11 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 25 25 NW 11 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 25 25 NE 8 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 24 24 NE 8 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 24 24 NE 8 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 24 24 NE 8 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 24 24 NE 8 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 24 24 NE 8 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 24 24 N 24 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 24 24 N 24 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 24 24 N 24 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 24 24 N 24 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 26 26 N 24 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 28 29 N 24 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 29 31 NE 22 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 30 33 NE 22 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 31 34 NE 22 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 31 34 NE 22 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 31 33 NE 22 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 31 32 NE 22 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 28 29 NE 18 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 25 25 NE 18 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 21 21 NE 18 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 19 19 NE 18 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 19 19 NE 18 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 18 18 NE 18 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 18 18 NW 7 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 17 17 NW 7 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 17 17 NW 7 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 18 18 NW 7 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 17 17 NW 7 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 17 17 NW 7 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 17 17 NW 7 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 18 18 NW 7 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 18 18 NW 7 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 19 19 NW 7 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 23 24 NW 7 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 30 32 NW 7 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 33 36 E 7 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 36 40 E 7 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 38 42 E 7 9922 9363 1163 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 39 43 E 7 10201 9363 1163 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 39 42 E 7 9922 9363 1163 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 39 41 E 7 9641 9363 1163 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 36 37 E 7 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 34 34 E 7 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 30 30 E 7 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 28 28 E 7 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 28 28 E 7 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 27 27 E 7 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 27 27 W 9 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 26 26 W 9 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 26 26 W 9 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 26 26 W 9 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 26 26 W 9 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 26 26 W 9 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 26 26 W 6 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 26 26 W 6 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 26 26 W 6 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 26 26 W 6 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 28 29 W 6 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 30 32 W 6 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 31 34 W 11 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 32 36 W 11 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 33 37 W 11 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 33 37 W 11 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 33 36 W 11 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 33 35 W 11 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 31 32 W 11 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 29 29 W 11 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 26 26 W 11 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 26 26 W 11 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 25 25 W 11 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 25 25 W 11 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 25 25 SW 17 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 24 24 SW 17 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 24 24 SW 17 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 24 24 SW 17 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 24 24 SW 17 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 24 24 SW 17 9363 9363 1163 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com