SoaringPredictor for Slide Mountain

Detailed Predictions for: Slide Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 8200
LZ Altitude (f): 6000

Sounding
Station:	KREV
Date/Time:	11 MAR 2010
Temp/Wind data from:	NOAA Digital Forecast

Time (Local)	High Temp	Puddle Temp	Wind (mph)	Thermal Ceiling (ft)	Soaring Ceiling (ft)	Above Launch (ft)	Thermal Type	Thermal Index (F)
7 AM Thu	14	14	W 5	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
8 AM Thu	18	18	W 5	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
9 AM Thu	24	25	W 5	10000	9295	1095	Blue	0
10 AM Thu	30	32	W 5	11225	10730	2530	Blue	7
11 AM Thu	31	34	W 5	11687	10984	2784	Blue	9
12 Noon Thu	32	35	W 5	11957	11211	3011	Blue	10
1 PM Thu	33	36	SW 6	12443	11437	3237	Blue	11
2 PM Thu	34	36	SW 6	12443	11437	3237	Blue	11
3 PM Thu	33	34	SW 6	11687	10984	2784	Blue	9
4 PM Thu	32	32	SW 7	11225	10730	2530	Blue	7
5 PM Thu	30	30	SW 7	10843	10488	2288	Blue	5
6 PM Thu	30	30	SW 7	10843	10488	2288	Blue	5
7 PM Thu	29	29	SW 12	10735	10242	2042	Blue	4
8 PM Thu	29	29	SW 12	10735	10242	2042	Blue	4
9 PM Thu	28	28	SW 12	10626	9995	1795	Blue	3
10 PM Thu	28	28	SW 17	10626	9995	1795	Blue	3
11 PM Thu	28	28	SW 17	10626	9995	1795	Blue	3
12 Midnight Fri	28	28	SW 17	10626	9995	1795	Blue	3
1 AM Fri	27	27	SW 21	10497	9688	1488	Blue	2
2 AM Fri	27	27	SW 21	10497	9688	1488	Blue	2
3 AM Fri	27	27	SW 21	10497	9688	1488	Blue	2
4 AM Fri	27	27	SW 24	10497	9688	1488	Blue	2
5 AM Fri	26	26	SW 24	10249	9471	1271	Blue	1
6 AM Fri	26	26	SW 24	10249	9471	1271	Blue	1
7 AM Fri	27	27	SW 34	10497	9688	1488	Blue	2
8 AM Fri	28	28	SW 34	10626	9995	1795	Blue	3
9 AM Fri	29	29	SW 34	10735	10242	2042	Blue	4
10 AM Fri	31	31	SW 40	10996	10622	2422	Blue	6
11 AM Fri	31	31	SW 40	10996	10622	2422	Blue	6
12 Noon Fri	32	32	SW 40	11225	10730	2530	Blue	7
1 PM Fri	32	32	SW 46	11225	10730	2530	Blue	7
2 PM Fri	32	32	SW 46	11225	10730	2530	Blue	7
3 PM Fri	30	30	SW 46	10843	10488	2288	Blue	5
4 PM Fri	26	26	SW 41	10249	9471	1271	Blue	1
5 PM Fri	22	22	SW 41	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
6 PM Fri	20	20	SW 41	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
7 PM Fri	19	19	SW 41	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
8 PM Fri	18	18	SW 41	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
9 PM Fri	17	17	SW 41	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
10 PM Fri	16	16	NW 33	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
11 PM Fri	16	16	NW 33	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
12 Midnight Sat	15	15	NW 33	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
1 AM Sat	14	14	NW 33	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
2 AM Sat	14	14	NW 33	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
3 AM Sat	13	13	NW 33	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
4 AM Sat	13	13	NW 22	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
5 AM Sat	11	11	NW 22	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
6 AM Sat	10	10	NW 22	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
7 AM Sat	11	11	NW 22	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
8 AM Sat	12	12	NW 22	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
9 AM Sat	14	15	NW 22	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
10 AM Sat	17	19	N 18	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
11 AM Sat	17	19	N 18	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
12 Noon Sat	17	20	N 18	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
1 PM Sat	18	20	N 18	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
2 PM Sat	18	20	N 18	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
3 PM Sat	18	19	N 18	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
4 PM Sat	17	17	N 18	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
5 PM Sat	17	17	N 18	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
6 PM Sat	17	17	N 18	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
7 PM Sat	17	17	N 18	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
8 PM Sat	17	17	N 18	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
9 PM Sat	17	17	N 18	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
10 PM Sat	17	17	NE 7	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
11 PM Sat	17	17	NE 7	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
12 Midnight Sun	16	16	NE 7	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
1 AM Sun	16	16	NE 7	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
2 AM Sun	16	16	NE 7	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
3 AM Sun	16	16	NE 7	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
4 AM Sun	16	16	NE 7	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
5 AM Sun	16	16	NE 7	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
6 AM Sun	16	16	NE 7	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
7 AM Sun	18	18	NE 7	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
8 AM Sun	21	21	NE 7	9295	9295	1095	Blue	0
9 AM Sun	26	27	NE 7	10497	9688	1488	Blue	2
10 AM Sun	31	33	NE 10	11453	10838	2638	Blue	8
11 AM Sun	31	34	NE 10	11687	10984	2784	Blue	9
12 Noon Sun	33	36	NE 10	12443	11437	3237	Blue	11
1 PM Sun	33	36	NE 10	12443	11437	3237	Blue	11
2 PM Sun	34	36	NE 10	12443	11437	3237	Blue	11
3 PM Sun	34	35	NE 10	11957	11211	3011	Blue	10
4 PM Sun	33	34	N 2	11687	10984	2784	Blue	9
5 PM Sun	33	33	N 2	11453	10838	2638	Blue	8
6 PM Sun	33	33	N 2	11453	10838	2638	Blue	8
7 PM Sun	33	33	N 2	11453	10838	2638	Blue	8
8 PM Sun	33	33	N 2	11453	10838	2638	Blue	8
9 PM Sun	33	33	N 2	11453	10838	2638	Blue	8
10 PM Sun	33	33	W 5	11453	10838	2638	Blue	8
11 PM Sun	33	33	W 5	11453	10838	2638	Blue	8
12 Midnight Mon	32	32	W 5	11225	10730	2530	Blue	7
1 AM Mon	32	32	W 5	11225	10730	2530	Blue	7
2 AM Mon	32	32	W 5	11225	10730	2530	Blue	7
3 AM Mon	32	32	W 5	11225	10730	2530	Blue	7
4 AM Mon	32	32	W 5	11225	10730	2530	Blue	7
5 AM Mon	32	32	W 5	11225	10730	2530	Blue	7
6 AM Mon	32	32	W 5	11225	10730	2530	Blue	7
7 AM Mon	33	33	W 5	11453	10838	2638	Blue	8
8 AM Mon	35	36	W 5	12443	11437	3237	Blue	11
9 AM Mon	37	39	W 5	13382	12379	4179	Blue	14
10 AM Mon	40	43	SW 15	14994	13992	5792	White	18
11 AM Mon	41	45	SW 15	15423	15423	7223	White	20
12 Noon Mon	41	45	SW 15	15423	15423	7223	White	20
1 PM Mon	42	46	SW 15	15636	15636	7436	White	21
2 PM Mon	42	45	SW 15	15423	15423	7223	White	20
3 PM Mon	41	43	SW 15	14994	13992	5792	White	18
4 PM Mon	40	41	SW 15	14559	13071	4871	White	16
5 PM Mon	39	39	SW 15	13382	12379	4179	Blue	14
6 PM Mon	38	38	SW 15	13093	11934	3734	Blue	13
7 PM Mon	38	38	SW 15	13093	11934	3734	Blue	13
8 PM Mon	37	37	SW 15	12911	11667	3467	Blue	12
9 PM Mon	37	37	SW 15	12911	11667	3467	Blue	12
10 PM Mon	37	37	S 21	12911	11667	3467	Blue	12
11 PM Mon	37	37	S 21	12911	11667	3467	Blue	12
12 Midnight Tue	36	36	S 21	12443	11437	3237	Blue	11
1 AM Tue	36	36	S 21	12443	11437	3237	Blue	11
2 AM Tue	36	36	S 21	12443	11437	3237	Blue	11
3 AM Tue	36	36	S 21	12443	11437	3237	Blue	11
4 AM Tue	36	36	S 21	12443	11437	3237	Blue	11
5 AM Tue	35	35	S 21	11957	11211	3011	Blue	10
6 AM Tue	35	35	S 21	11957	11211	3011	Blue	10
7 AM Tue	36	36	S 21	12443	11437	3237	Blue	11
8 AM Tue	37	37	S 21	12911	11667	3467	Blue	12
9 AM Tue	39	40	S 21	14124	12889	4689	Blue	15
10 AM Tue	42	44	SW 19	15210	14795	6595	White	19
11 AM Tue	42	45	SW 19	15423	15423	7223	White	20
12 Noon Tue	42	46	SW 19	15636	15636	7436	White	21
1 PM Tue	43	46	SW 19	15636	15636	7436	White	21
2 PM Tue	43	46	SW 19	15636	15636	7436	White	21
3 PM Tue	42	43	SW 19	14994	13992	5792	White	18
4 PM Tue	41	41	SW 19	14559	13071	4871	White	16
5 PM Tue	39	39	SW 19	13382	12379	4179	Blue	14
6 PM Tue	39	39	SW 19	13382	12379	4179	Blue	14
7 PM Tue	38	38	SW 19	13093	11934	3734	Blue	13
8 PM Tue	38	38	SW 19	13093	11934	3734	Blue	13
9 PM Tue	37	37	SW 19	12911	11667	3467	Blue	12
10 PM Tue	37	37	SW 22	12911	11667	3467	Blue	12
11 PM Tue	37	37	SW 22	12911	11667	3467	Blue	12
12 Midnight Wed	37	37	SW 22	12911	11667	3467	Blue	12
1 AM Wed	36	36	SW 22	12443	11437	3237	Blue	11
2 AM Wed	36	36	SW 22	12443	11437	3237	Blue	11
3 AM Wed	36	36	SW 22	12443	11437	3237	Blue	11
4 AM Wed	36	36	SW 22	12443	11437	3237	Blue	11
5 AM Wed	35	35	SW 22	11957	11211	3011	Blue	10
6 AM Wed	35	35	SW 22	11957	11211	3011	Blue	10

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only. No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates. These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying. Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released. If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid. Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST). If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level. We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes. Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate. Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink. It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website. Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature.

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun. When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air. The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals. A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable. Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates.

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com