Detailed Predictions for: Slide Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 8200
LZ Altitude (f): 6000
Sounding

Station:

 KREV

Date/Time:

 3 SEP 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 53 53 SW 8 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 52 SW 8 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 52 SW 8 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 54 SW 8 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 57 SW 8 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 59 62 SW 8 14643 11551 3351 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 62 67 SW 13 16506 16057 7857 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 64 70 SW 13 17501 16465 8265 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 65 72 SW 13 19195 16983 8783 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 66 72 SW 17 19195 16983 8783 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 66 71 SW 17 17943 16641 8441 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 66 69 SW 17 17087 16289 8089 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 64 66 SW 23 16328 15859 7659 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 63 63 SW 23 15905 12264 4064 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 59 59 SW 23 11602 8200 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 57 57 SW 21 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 56 SW 21 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 55 SW 21 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 55 SW 22 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 SW 22 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 53 SW 22 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 53 SW 22 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 54 SW 22 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 53 SW 22 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 53 53 SW 21 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 52 SW 21 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 52 SW 21 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 53 SW 21 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 55 SW 21 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 57 60 SW 21 12328 8200 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 58 63 SW 25 15905 12264 4064 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 59 65 SW 25 16151 12876 4676 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 60 66 SW 25 16328 15859 7659 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 61 67 SW 30 16506 16057 7857 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 61 66 SW 30 16328 15859 7659 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 61 64 SW 30 16072 12640 4440 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 59 61 SW 33 12659 9487 1287 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 57 57 SW 33 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 53 53 SW 33 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 51 51 SW 33 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 50 50 SW 33 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 49 49 SW 33 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 49 49 W 29 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 W 29 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 W 29 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 47 47 W 29 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 48 W 29 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 47 W 29 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 47 47 W 30 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 46 W 30 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 46 W 30 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 47 W 30 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 48 49 W 30 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 49 51 W 30 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 50 54 W 32 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 51 56 W 32 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 52 57 W 32 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 52 57 W 32 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 52 56 W 32 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 52 55 W 32 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 51 52 NW 31 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 50 50 NW 31 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 48 48 NW 31 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 47 47 NW 31 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 46 46 NW 31 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 46 NW 31 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 46 46 NE 23 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 NE 23 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 45 NE 23 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 45 NE 23 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 45 NE 23 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 45 NE 23 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 45 45 E 24 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 E 24 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 E 24 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 46 E 24 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 48 49 E 24 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 51 54 E 24 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 54 58 SE 14 9494 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 56 61 SE 14 12659 9487 1287 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 57 63 SE 14 15905 12264 4064 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 58 63 SE 14 15905 12264 4064 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 58 62 SE 14 14643 11551 3351 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 58 61 SE 14 12659 9487 1287 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 56 57 SW 8 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 55 55 SW 8 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 52 52 SW 8 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 50 50 SW 8 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 49 49 SW 8 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 49 SW 8 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 48 E 14 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 E 14 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 47 47 E 14 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 47 47 E 14 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 47 47 E 14 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 47 E 14 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 E 22 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 E 22 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 46 E 22 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 47 E 22 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 47 48 E 22 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 49 51 E 22 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 49 52 SW 31 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 50 54 SW 31 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 51 55 SW 31 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 51 55 SW 31 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 51 54 SW 31 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 51 53 SW 31 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 49 50 SW 31 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 48 48 SW 31 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 45 45 SW 31 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 43 43 SW 31 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 42 42 SW 31 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 42 42 SW 31 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 41 41 SW 24 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 40 40 SW 24 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 40 40 SW 24 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 40 40 SW 24 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 40 40 SW 24 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 40 40 SW 24 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 40 40 SW 25 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 39 39 SW 25 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 39 39 SW 25 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 39 39 SW 25 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 38 39 SW 25 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 37 39 SW 25 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 37 39 SW 22 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 37 40 SW 22 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 36 39 SW 22 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 36 39 SW 22 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 36 38 SW 22 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 36 37 SW 22 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 37 38 SW 23 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 37 37 SW 23 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 39 39 SW 23 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 40 40 SW 23 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 40 40 SW 23 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 41 41 SW 23 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 41 41 SE 12 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 41 41 SE 12 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 41 41 SE 12 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 41 41 SE 12 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 41 41 SE 12 7352 8200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 41 41 SE 12 7352 8200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com