SoaringPredictor for Slide Mountain

Detailed Predictions for: Slide Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 8200
LZ Altitude (f): 6000

Sounding
Station:	KREV
Date/Time:	4 FEB 2012
Temp/Wind data from:	NOAA Digital Forecast

Time (Local)	High Temp	Puddle Temp	Wind (mph)	Thermal Ceiling (ft)	Soaring Ceiling (ft)	Above Launch (ft)	Thermal Type	Thermal Index (F)
4 AM Sat	21	21	SE 10	9151	9085	885	Blue	0
5 AM Sat	21	21	SE 10	9151	9085	885	Blue	0
6 AM Sat	21	21	SE 10	9151	9085	885	Blue	0
7 AM Sat	21	21	SE 8	9151	9085	885	Blue	0
8 AM Sat	23	23	SE 8	9611	9085	885	Blue	0
9 AM Sat	25	25	SE 8	9992	9381	1181	Blue	1
10 AM Sat	28	29	NE 13	10402	10109	1909	Blue	5
11 AM Sat	29	31	NE 13	10572	10315	2115	Blue	7
12 Noon Sat	31	33	NE 13	10980	10484	2284	Blue	9
1 PM Sat	32	34	NE 12	11255	10569	2369	Blue	10
2 PM Sat	32	33	NE 12	10980	10484	2284	Blue	9
3 PM Sat	32	33	NE 12	10980	10484	2284	Blue	9
4 PM Sat	30	30	NE 12	10487	10214	2014	Blue	6
5 PM Sat	28	28	NE 12	10317	9989	1789	Blue	4
6 PM Sat	26	26	NE 12	10112	9610	1410	Blue	2
7 PM Sat	23	23	N 14	9611	9085	885	Blue	0
8 PM Sat	22	22	N 14	9381	9085	885	Blue	0
9 PM Sat	22	22	N 14	9381	9085	885	Blue	0
10 PM Sat	22	22	N 14	9381	9085	885	Blue	0
11 PM Sat	21	21	N 14	9151	9085	885	Blue	0
12 Midnight Sun	21	21	N 14	9151	9085	885	Blue	0
1 AM Sun	20	20	SE 8	9085	9085	885	Blue	0
2 AM Sun	20	20	SE 8	9085	9085	885	Blue	0
3 AM Sun	20	20	SE 8	9085	9085	885	Blue	0
4 AM Sun	20	20	SE 8	9085	9085	885	Blue	0
5 AM Sun	20	20	SE 8	9085	9085	885	Blue	0
6 AM Sun	21	21	SE 8	9151	9085	885	Blue	0
7 AM Sun	22	22	SE 8	9381	9085	885	Blue	0
8 AM Sun	24	24	SE 8	9839	9153	953	Blue	0
9 AM Sun	27	27	SE 8	10217	9837	1637	Blue	3
10 AM Sun	30	31	SE 8	10572	10315	2115	Blue	7
11 AM Sun	31	33	SE 8	10980	10484	2284	Blue	9
12 Noon Sun	32	34	SE 8	11255	10569	2369	Blue	10
1 PM Sun	32	34	SE 8	11255	10569	2369	Blue	10
2 PM Sun	32	33	SE 8	10980	10484	2284	Blue	9
3 PM Sun	32	33	SE 8	10980	10484	2284	Blue	9
4 PM Sun	31	31	SE 7	10572	10315	2115	Blue	7
5 PM Sun	29	29	SE 7	10402	10109	1909	Blue	5
6 PM Sun	26	26	SE 7	10112	9610	1410	Blue	2
7 PM Sun	24	24	SE 7	9839	9153	953	Blue	0
8 PM Sun	23	23	SE 7	9611	9085	885	Blue	0
9 PM Sun	23	23	SE 7	9611	9085	885	Blue	0
10 PM Sun	23	23	SE 2	9611	9085	885	Blue	0
11 PM Sun	22	22	SE 2	9381	9085	885	Blue	0
12 Midnight Mon	21	21	SE 2	9151	9085	885	Blue	0
1 AM Mon	21	21	SE 2	9151	9085	885	Blue	0
2 AM Mon	21	21	SE 2	9151	9085	885	Blue	0
3 AM Mon	21	21	SE 2	9151	9085	885	Blue	0
4 AM Mon	22	22	S 8	9381	9085	885	Blue	0
5 AM Mon	22	22	S 8	9381	9085	885	Blue	0
6 AM Mon	23	23	S 8	9611	9085	885	Blue	0
7 AM Mon	24	24	S 8	9839	9153	953	Blue	0
8 AM Mon	25	25	S 8	9992	9381	1181	Blue	1
9 AM Mon	27	27	S 8	10217	9837	1637	Blue	3
10 AM Mon	28	29	SW 14	10402	10109	1909	Blue	5
11 AM Mon	29	30	SW 14	10487	10214	2014	Blue	6
12 Noon Mon	29	31	SW 14	10572	10315	2115	Blue	7
1 PM Mon	29	30	SW 14	10487	10214	2014	Blue	6
2 PM Mon	29	30	SW 14	10487	10214	2014	Blue	6
3 PM Mon	29	29	SW 14	10402	10109	1909	Blue	5
4 PM Mon	29	29	SW 14	10402	10109	1909	Blue	5
5 PM Mon	28	28	SW 14	10317	9989	1789	Blue	4
6 PM Mon	27	27	SW 14	10217	9837	1637	Blue	3
7 PM Mon	26	26	SW 14	10112	9610	1410	Blue	2
8 PM Mon	26	26	SW 14	10112	9610	1410	Blue	2
9 PM Mon	26	26	SW 14	10112	9610	1410	Blue	2
10 PM Mon	26	26	S 25	10112	9610	1410	Blue	2
11 PM Mon	25	25	S 25	9992	9381	1181	Blue	1
12 Midnight Tue	25	25	S 25	9992	9381	1181	Blue	1
1 AM Tue	25	25	S 25	9992	9381	1181	Blue	1
2 AM Tue	24	24	S 25	9839	9153	953	Blue	0
3 AM Tue	24	24	S 25	9839	9153	953	Blue	0
4 AM Tue	24	24	S 23	9839	9153	953	Blue	0
5 AM Tue	25	25	S 23	9992	9381	1181	Blue	1
6 AM Tue	25	25	S 23	9992	9381	1181	Blue	1
7 AM Tue	26	26	S 23	10112	9610	1410	Blue	2
8 AM Tue	26	26	S 23	10112	9610	1410	Blue	2
9 AM Tue	26	26	S 23	10112	9610	1410	Blue	2
10 AM Tue	25	25	SE 21	9992	9381	1181	Blue	1
11 AM Tue	25	25	SE 21	9992	9381	1181	Blue	1
12 Noon Tue	24	24	SE 21	9839	9153	953	Blue	0
1 PM Tue	24	24	SE 21	9839	9153	953	Blue	0
2 PM Tue	24	24	SE 21	9839	9153	953	Blue	0
3 PM Tue	25	25	SE 21	9992	9381	1181	Blue	1
4 PM Tue	25	25	NE 10	9992	9381	1181	Blue	1
5 PM Tue	25	25	NE 10	9992	9381	1181	Blue	1
6 PM Tue	24	24	NE 10	9839	9153	953	Blue	0
7 PM Tue	24	24	NE 10	9839	9153	953	Blue	0
8 PM Tue	24	24	NE 10	9839	9153	953	Blue	0
9 PM Tue	24	24	NE 10	9839	9153	953	Blue	0
10 PM Tue	24	24	N 9	9839	9153	953	Blue	0
11 PM Tue	24	24	N 9	9839	9153	953	Blue	0
12 Midnight Wed	24	24	N 9	9839	9153	953	Blue	0
1 AM Wed	24	24	N 9	9839	9153	953	Blue	0
2 AM Wed	23	23	N 9	9611	9085	885	Blue	0
3 AM Wed	23	23	N 9	9611	9085	885	Blue	0
4 AM Wed	23	23	NE 12	9611	9085	885	Blue	0
5 AM Wed	23	23	NE 12	9611	9085	885	Blue	0
6 AM Wed	24	24	NE 12	9839	9153	953	Blue	0
7 AM Wed	24	24	NE 12	9839	9153	953	Blue	0
8 AM Wed	25	25	NE 12	9992	9381	1181	Blue	1
9 AM Wed	27	27	NE 12	10217	9837	1637	Blue	3
10 AM Wed	28	29	E 14	10402	10109	1909	Blue	5
11 AM Wed	29	30	E 14	10487	10214	2014	Blue	6
12 Noon Wed	29	30	E 14	10487	10214	2014	Blue	6
1 PM Wed	29	30	E 14	10487	10214	2014	Blue	6
2 PM Wed	30	31	E 14	10572	10315	2115	Blue	7
3 PM Wed	31	31	E 14	10572	10315	2115	Blue	7
4 PM Wed	31	31	NE 13	10572	10315	2115	Blue	7
5 PM Wed	30	30	NE 13	10487	10214	2014	Blue	6
6 PM Wed	29	29	NE 13	10402	10109	1909	Blue	5
7 PM Wed	29	29	NE 13	10402	10109	1909	Blue	5
8 PM Wed	29	29	NE 13	10402	10109	1909	Blue	5
9 PM Wed	29	29	NE 13	10402	10109	1909	Blue	5
10 PM Wed	29	29	NE 18	10402	10109	1909	Blue	5
11 PM Wed	29	29	NE 18	10402	10109	1909	Blue	5
12 Midnight Thu	29	29	NE 18	10402	10109	1909	Blue	5
1 AM Thu	29	29	NE 18	10402	10109	1909	Blue	5
2 AM Thu	29	29	NE 18	10402	10109	1909	Blue	5
3 AM Thu	29	29	NE 18	10402	10109	1909	Blue	5
4 AM Thu	29	29	NE 18	10402	10109	1909	Blue	5
5 AM Thu	30	30	NE 18	10487	10214	2014	Blue	6
6 AM Thu	30	30	NE 18	10487	10214	2014	Blue	6
7 AM Thu	31	31	NE 18	10572	10315	2115	Blue	7
8 AM Thu	32	32	NE 18	10703	10399	2199	Blue	8
9 AM Thu	34	34	NE 18	11255	10569	2369	Blue	10
10 AM Thu	36	37	E 8	11790	11238	3038	Blue	13
11 AM Thu	37	39	E 8	12074	11637	3437	Blue	15
12 Noon Thu	37	39	E 8	12074	11637	3437	Blue	15
1 PM Thu	37	39	E 8	12074	11637	3437	Blue	15
2 PM Thu	38	40	E 8	12216	11778	3578	Blue	16
3 PM Thu	38	39	E 8	12074	11637	3437	Blue	15
4 PM Thu	37	37	E 7	11790	11238	3038	Blue	13
5 PM Thu	37	37	E 7	11790	11238	3038	Blue	13
6 PM Thu	36	36	E 7	11647	10965	2765	Blue	12
7 PM Thu	35	35	E 7	11505	10691	2491	Blue	11
8 PM Thu	35	35	E 7	11505	10691	2491	Blue	11
9 PM Thu	35	35	E 7	11505	10691	2491	Blue	11
10 PM Thu	35	35	SE 5	11505	10691	2491	Blue	11
11 PM Thu	35	35	SE 5	11505	10691	2491	Blue	11
12 Midnight Fri	35	35	SE 5	11505	10691	2491	Blue	11
1 AM Fri	35	35	SE 5	11505	10691	2491	Blue	11
2 AM Fri	35	35	SE 5	11505	10691	2491	Blue	11
3 AM Fri	35	35	SE 5	11505	10691	2491	Blue	11

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only. No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates. These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying. Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released. If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid. Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST). If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level. We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes. Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate. Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink. It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website. Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature.

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun. When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air. The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals. A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable. Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates.

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com