Detailed Predictions for: Slick Rock
Launch Altitude (f): 5075
LZ Altitude (f): 1140
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 19 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 42 42 E 10 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 41 E 10 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 41 41 E 10 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 44 E 8 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 42 43 E 8 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 54 57 E 8 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 58 62 S 5 5052 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 61 66 S 5 6214 5331 256 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 62 68 S 5 6783 5906 831 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 67 72 N 2 7902 7036 1961 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 67 71 N 2 7625 6756 1681 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 68 70 N 2 7346 6475 1400 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 66 67 N 4 6499 5620 545 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 59 59 N 4 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 53 53 N 4 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 47 47 NW 4 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 50 50 NW 4 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 47 47 NW 4 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 45 45 NE 5 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 NE 5 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 47 47 NE 5 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 46 NE 5 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 46 NE 5 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 NE 5 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 E 7 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 43 E 7 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 43 43 E 7 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 46 E 7 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 44 45 E 7 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 59 E 7 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 60 64 SW 4 5637 5075 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 63 68 SW 4 6783 5906 831 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 64 70 SW 4 7346 6475 1400 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 69 74 SW 4 8449 7590 2515 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 69 73 SW 4 8177 7314 2239 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 70 72 SW 4 7902 7036 1961 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 68 69 W 6 7065 6192 1117 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 61 61 W 6 4504 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 54 54 W 6 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 48 48 W 6 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 51 51 W 6 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 49 49 W 6 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 46 NE 4 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 NE 4 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 NE 4 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 47 47 NE 4 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 47 NE 4 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 46 NE 4 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 45 N 5 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 44 N 5 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 44 N 5 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 47 N 5 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 45 46 N 5 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 57 60 N 5 3999 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 61 65 W 4 5926 5075 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 64 69 W 4 7065 6192 1117 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 65 71 W 4 7625 6756 1681 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 70 75 W 4 8714 7865 2790 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 70 74 W 4 8449 7590 2515 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 71 73 W 4 8177 7314 2239 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 69 70 W 6 7346 6475 1400 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 61 61 W 6 4504 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 54 54 W 6 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 47 47 W 6 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 51 51 W 6 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 48 48 W 6 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 45 45 NE 3 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 NE 3 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 48 NE 3 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 46 NE 3 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 NE 3 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 46 NE 3 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 44 NE 1 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 43 NE 1 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 43 43 NE 1 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 45 NE 1 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 44 45 NE 1 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 53 55 NE 1 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 56 59 W 7 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 58 62 W 7 5052 5075 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 59 63 W 7 5345 5075 0 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 62 66 W 7 6214 5331 256 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 62 65 W 7 5926 5075 0 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 63 65 W 7 5926 5075 0 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 62 63 NW 7 5345 5075 0 Blue 1
6 PM Mon 56 56 NW 7 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 51 51 NW 7 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 46 46 NW 7 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 49 49 NW 7 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 47 47 NW 7 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 44 44 N 3 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 44 44 N 3 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 N 3 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 45 45 N 3 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 45 N 3 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 45 45 N 3 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 44 44 E 1 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 43 E 1 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 43 43 E 1 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 45 45 E 1 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 43 43 E 1 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 50 51 E 1 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 52 54 W 7 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 54 57 W 7 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 55 58 W 7 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 57 60 W 7 3999 5075 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 57 59 W 7 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 58 59 W 7 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 57 57 W 6 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 52 52 W 6 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 48 48 W 6 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 44 44 W 6 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 46 46 W 6 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 45 45 W 6 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 43 43 E 4 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 43 43 E 4 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 45 45 E 4 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 44 44 E 4 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 44 E 4 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 E 4 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 E 4 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 42 42 E 4 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 42 E 4 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 44 44 E 4 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 43 44 E 4 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 50 52 E 4 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 53 56 W 7 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 55 59 W 7 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 55 59 W 7 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 58 62 W 7 5052 5075 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 58 61 W 7 4504 5075 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 59 61 W 7 4504 5075 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 58 59 W 5 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 53 53 W 5 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 48 48 W 5 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 44 44 W 5 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 46 46 W 5 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 44 44 W 5 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 42 42 E 5 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 E 5 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 44 44 E 5 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 43 43 E 5 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 43 43 E 5 3543 5075 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 43 43 E 5 3543 5075 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com