Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 19 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 54 54 NE 20 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 54 NE 20 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 53 NE 20 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 55 NE 22 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 62 NE 22 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 70 73 NE 22 4411 3049 279 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 75 79 W 11 6389 5516 2746 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 78 83 W 11 7480 6619 3849 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 78 84 W 11 7749 6891 4121 Blue 16
2 PM Fri 79 84 NW 4 7749 6891 4121 Blue 16
3 PM Fri 79 83 NW 4 7480 6619 3849 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 78 80 NW 4 6664 5794 3024 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 76 77 NW 14 5832 4837 2067 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 74 74 NW 14 4887 3431 661 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 67 67 NW 14 2025 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 64 64 W 12 1612 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 61 61 W 12 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 59 59 W 12 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 59 59 NW 6 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 NW 6 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 53 NW 6 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 52 NE 2 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 51 NE 2 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 NE 2 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 NE 2 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 52 NE 2 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 51 NE 2 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 53 NE 6 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 60 61 NE 6 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 70 73 NE 6 4411 3049 279 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 75 79 W 6 6389 5516 2746 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 78 83 W 6 7480 6619 3849 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 79 85 W 6 8017 7161 4391 Blue 17
2 PM Sat 79 84 SE 2 7749 6891 4121 Blue 16
3 PM Sat 80 84 SE 2 7749 6891 4121 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 79 81 SE 2 6938 6071 3301 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 77 78 W 3 6111 5236 2466 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 75 75 W 3 5269 3888 1118 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 68 68 W 3 2162 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 64 64 W 3 1612 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 61 61 W 3 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 59 59 W 3 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 59 59 SE 1 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 58 SE 1 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 53 53 SE 1 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 52 SE 1 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 51 SE 1 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 50 50 SE 1 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 52 NE 3 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 NE 3 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 51 NE 3 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 53 NE 3 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 61 NE 3 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 71 74 NE 3 4887 3431 661 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 76 80 S 3 6664 5794 3024 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 79 84 S 3 7749 6891 4121 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 80 86 S 3 8283 7429 4659 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 80 85 S 3 8017 7161 4391 Blue 17
3 PM Sun 81 85 S 3 8017 7161 4391 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 80 82 S 3 7210 6346 3576 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 78 79 W 6 6389 5516 2746 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 75 75 W 6 5269 3888 1118 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 68 68 W 6 2162 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 64 64 W 6 1612 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 61 61 W 6 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 58 W 6 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 59 59 NE 1 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 NE 1 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 53 NE 1 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 51 NE 1 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 50 NE 1 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 49 NE 1 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 51 NE 1 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 51 51 NE 1 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 50 NE 1 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 51 NE 1 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 59 NE 1 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 66 68 NE 1 2162 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 71 74 S 5 4887 3431 661 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 73 76 S 5 5552 4368 1598 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 73 77 S 5 5832 4837 2067 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 74 77 S 5 5832 4837 2067 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 74 77 S 5 5832 4837 2067 Blue 9
4 PM Mon 74 75 S 5 5269 3888 1118 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 72 72 W 8 3925 2770 0 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 69 69 W 8 2676 2770 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 63 63 W 8 1474 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 59 59 W 8 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 56 W 8 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 54 W 8 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 54 SE 5 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 SE 5 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 49 49 SE 5 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 47 47 SE 5 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 46 SE 5 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 46 46 SE 5 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 SE 2 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 47 SE 2 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 46 SE 2 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 48 SE 2 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 55 SE 2 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 63 65 SE 2 1749 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 67 70 NW 11 3068 2770 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 70 74 NW 11 4887 3431 661 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 70 74 NW 11 4887 3431 661 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 71 74 NW 11 4887 3431 661 Blue 6
3 PM Tue 71 74 NW 11 4887 3431 661 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 71 73 NW 11 4411 3049 279 Blue 5
5 PM Tue 69 69 NW 11 2676 2770 0 Blue 1
6 PM Tue 67 67 NW 11 2025 2770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 61 61 NW 11 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 57 57 NW 11 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 54 54 NW 11 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 52 NW 11 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 52 52 N 16 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 N 16 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 47 47 N 16 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 46 46 N 16 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 45 45 N 16 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 45 45 N 16 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 NE 10 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 46 NE 10 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 45 NE 10 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 47 NE 10 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 55 NE 10 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 64 66 NE 10 1887 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 69 73 NE 9 4411 3049 279 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 72 77 NE 9 5832 4837 2067 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 72 77 NE 9 5832 4837 2067 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 73 78 NE 9 6111 5236 2466 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 73 77 NE 9 5832 4837 2067 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 73 75 NE 9 5269 3888 1118 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 71 72 W 6 3925 2770 0 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 69 69 W 6 2676 2770 0 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 63 63 W 6 1474 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 60 60 W 6 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 57 W 6 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 55 W 6 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 55 NE 3 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 NE 3 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 50 NE 3 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 49 NE 3 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 48 NE 3 1345 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 47 NE 3 1345 2770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com