Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 11 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
7 AM Thu 42 42 NE 10 1519 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 50 NE 10 2115 2770 0 Blue 7
9 AM Thu 54 56 NE 10 4531 3333 563 Blue 13
10 AM Thu 57 61 NE 6 4734 4638 1868 Blue 18
11 AM Thu 59 64 NE 6 5076 4731 1961 Blue 21
12 Noon Thu 61 66 NE 6 5589 4931 2161 Blue 23
1 PM Thu 62 67 SW 5 5843 5046 2276 Blue 24
2 PM Thu 63 67 SW 5 5843 5046 2276 Blue 24
3 PM Thu 62 64 SW 5 5076 4731 1961 Blue 21
4 PM Thu 61 62 W 9 4804 4669 1899 Blue 19
5 PM Thu 58 58 W 9 4641 4112 1342 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 53 53 W 9 3356 2770 0 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 50 50 NW 7 2115 2770 0 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 49 49 NW 7 2044 2770 0 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 48 48 NW 7 1974 2770 0 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 47 47 N 4 1904 2770 0 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 46 46 N 4 1833 2770 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 45 45 N 4 1763 2770 0 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 45 45 N 1 1763 2770 0 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 44 44 N 1 1693 2770 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 43 43 N 1 1611 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 42 42 E 2 1519 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 42 42 E 2 1519 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 42 E 2 1519 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 44 44 SE 2 1693 2770 0 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 50 51 SE 2 2294 2770 0 Blue 8
9 AM Fri 54 56 SE 2 4531 3333 563 Blue 13
10 AM Fri 56 59 S 4 4672 4494 1724 Blue 16
11 AM Fri 58 62 S 4 4804 4669 1899 Blue 19
12 Noon Fri 60 64 S 4 5076 4731 1961 Blue 21
1 PM Fri 61 65 SW 7 5333 4796 2026 Blue 22
2 PM Fri 62 65 SW 7 5333 4796 2026 Blue 22
3 PM Fri 61 63 SW 7 4946 4700 1930 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 61 61 SW 7 4734 4638 1868 Blue 18
5 PM Fri 58 58 SW 7 4641 4112 1342 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 55 55 SW 7 4145 2934 164 Blue 12
7 PM Fri 53 53 W 5 3356 2770 0 Blue 10
8 PM Fri 52 52 W 5 2952 2770 0 Blue 9
9 PM Fri 52 52 W 5 2952 2770 0 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 51 51 W 5 2294 2770 0 Blue 8
11 PM Fri 51 51 W 5 2294 2770 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 W 5 2115 2770 0 Blue 7
1 AM Sat 50 50 W 3 2115 2770 0 Blue 7
2 AM Sat 49 49 W 3 2044 2770 0 Blue 6
3 AM Sat 48 48 W 3 1974 2770 0 Blue 5
4 AM Sat 48 48 NW 2 1974 2770 0 Blue 5
5 AM Sat 48 48 NW 2 1974 2770 0 Blue 5
6 AM Sat 48 48 NW 2 1974 2770 0 Blue 5
7 AM Sat 49 49 SW 2 2044 2770 0 Blue 6
8 AM Sat 52 52 SW 2 2952 2770 0 Blue 9
9 AM Sat 55 56 SW 2 4531 3333 563 Blue 13
10 AM Sat 56 59 SW 6 4672 4494 1724 Blue 16
11 AM Sat 57 61 SW 6 4734 4638 1868 Blue 18
12 Noon Sat 58 62 SW 6 4804 4669 1899 Blue 19
1 PM Sat 58 61 W 7 4734 4638 1868 Blue 18
2 PM Sat 59 62 W 7 4804 4669 1899 Blue 19
3 PM Sat 58 60 W 7 4703 4607 1837 Blue 17
4 PM Sat 58 59 NW 5 4672 4494 1724 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 55 55 NW 5 4145 2934 164 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 52 52 NW 5 2952 2770 0 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 50 50 NW 5 2115 2770 0 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 49 49 NW 5 2044 2770 0 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 48 48 NW 5 1974 2770 0 Blue 5
10 PM Sat 48 48 NE 16 1974 2770 0 Blue 5
11 PM Sat 47 47 NE 16 1904 2770 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 NE 16 1833 2770 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 46 46 NE 16 1833 2770 0 Blue 3
2 AM Sun 46 46 NE 16 1833 2770 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 45 45 NE 16 1763 2770 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sun 44 44 NE 15 1693 2770 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 45 45 NE 15 1763 2770 0 Blue 2
6 AM Sun 45 45 NE 15 1763 2770 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sun 46 46 NE 15 1833 2770 0 Blue 3
8 AM Sun 53 54 NE 15 3753 2770 0 Blue 11
9 AM Sun 57 59 NE 15 4672 4494 1724 Blue 16
10 AM Sun 60 63 NE 10 4946 4700 1930 Blue 20
11 AM Sun 62 66 NE 10 5589 4931 2161 Blue 23
12 Noon Sun 64 69 NE 10 6349 5555 2785 Blue 26
1 PM Sun 65 69 NE 10 6349 5555 2785 Blue 26
2 PM Sun 66 69 NE 10 6349 5555 2785 Blue 26
3 PM Sun 65 67 NE 10 5843 5046 2276 Blue 24
4 PM Sun 65 66 NW 7 5589 4931 2161 Blue 23
5 PM Sun 61 61 NW 7 4734 4638 1868 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 57 57 NW 7 4610 3725 955 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 55 55 NW 7 4145 2934 164 Blue 12
8 PM Sun 54 54 NW 7 3753 2770 0 Blue 11
9 PM Sun 53 53 NW 7 3356 2770 0 Blue 10
10 PM Sun 52 52 N 7 2952 2770 0 Blue 9
11 PM Sun 52 52 N 7 2952 2770 0 Blue 9
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 N 7 2294 2770 0 Blue 8
1 AM Mon 51 51 N 7 2294 2770 0 Blue 8
2 AM Mon 49 49 N 7 2044 2770 0 Blue 6
3 AM Mon 49 49 N 7 2044 2770 0 Blue 6
4 AM Mon 48 48 NE 11 1974 2770 0 Blue 5
5 AM Mon 48 48 NE 11 1974 2770 0 Blue 5
6 AM Mon 48 48 NE 11 1974 2770 0 Blue 5
7 AM Mon 50 50 NE 11 2115 2770 0 Blue 7
8 AM Mon 59 60 NE 11 4703 4607 1837 Blue 17
9 AM Mon 66 68 NE 11 6097 5301 2531 Blue 25
10 AM Mon 69 73 NE 8 7345 6558 3788 Blue 30
11 AM Mon 72 77 NE 8 8595 7582 4812 Blue 34
12 Noon Mon 75 80 NE 8 9517 8521 5751 Blue 37
1 PM Mon 76 81 NE 8 9992 8829 6059 Blue 38
2 PM Mon 77 81 NE 8 9992 8829 6059 Blue 38
3 PM Mon 76 78 NE 8 8905 7898 5128 Blue 35
4 PM Mon 75 76 W 5 8282 7297 4527 Blue 33
5 PM Mon 71 71 W 5 6849 6059 3289 Blue 28
6 PM Mon 65 65 W 5 5333 4796 2026 Blue 22
7 PM Mon 62 62 W 5 4804 4669 1899 Blue 19
8 PM Mon 60 60 W 5 4703 4607 1837 Blue 17
9 PM Mon 59 59 W 5 4672 4494 1724 Blue 16
10 PM Mon 58 58 NE 5 4641 4112 1342 Blue 15
11 PM Mon 57 57 NE 5 4610 3725 955 Blue 14
12 Midnight Tue 55 55 NE 5 4145 2934 164 Blue 12
1 AM Tue 55 55 NE 5 4145 2934 164 Blue 12
2 AM Tue 54 54 NE 5 3753 2770 0 Blue 11
3 AM Tue 53 53 NE 5 3356 2770 0 Blue 10
4 AM Tue 52 52 NE 6 2952 2770 0 Blue 9
5 AM Tue 52 52 NE 6 2952 2770 0 Blue 9
6 AM Tue 52 52 NE 6 2952 2770 0 Blue 9
7 AM Tue 54 54 NE 6 3753 2770 0 Blue 11
8 AM Tue 62 63 NE 6 4946 4700 1930 Blue 20
9 AM Tue 67 69 NE 6 6349 5555 2785 Blue 26
10 AM Tue 70 74 E 4 7647 6805 4035 Blue 31
11 AM Tue 72 77 E 4 8595 7582 4812 Blue 34
12 Noon Tue 75 80 E 4 9517 8521 5751 Blue 37
1 PM Tue 76 81 E 4 9992 8829 6059 Blue 38
2 PM Tue 77 81 E 4 9992 8829 6059 Blue 38
3 PM Tue 76 78 E 4 8905 7898 5128 Blue 35
4 PM Tue 75 76 SW 4 8282 7297 4527 Blue 33
5 PM Tue 71 71 SW 4 6849 6059 3289 Blue 28
6 PM Tue 66 66 SW 4 5589 4931 2161 Blue 23
7 PM Tue 63 63 SW 4 4946 4700 1930 Blue 20
8 PM Tue 61 61 SW 4 4734 4638 1868 Blue 18
9 PM Tue 60 60 SW 4 4703 4607 1837 Blue 17
10 PM Tue 60 60 NW 5 4703 4607 1837 Blue 17
11 PM Tue 59 59 NW 5 4672 4494 1724 Blue 16
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 NW 5 4610 3725 955 Blue 14
1 AM Wed 57 57 NW 5 4610 3725 955 Blue 14
2 AM Wed 56 56 NW 5 4531 3333 563 Blue 13
3 AM Wed 55 55 NW 5 4145 2934 164 Blue 12
4 AM Wed 54 54 NE 6 3753 2770 0 Blue 11
5 AM Wed 54 54 NE 6 3753 2770 0 Blue 11
6 AM Wed 54 54 NE 6 3753 2770 0 Blue 11

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com