Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 4 FEB 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
4 AM Sat 54 54 NE 24 771 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 54 NE 24 771 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 NE 24 771 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 55 NE 24 868 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 58 58 NE 24 1579 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 61 62 NE 24 4405 2770 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 64 66 NE 23 6766 5117 2347 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 66 68 NE 23 7730 6175 3405 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 68 71 NE 23 8081 7652 4882 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 68 70 E 9 7966 7173 4403 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 68 70 E 9 7966 7173 4403 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 68 69 E 9 7852 6680 3910 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 67 67 E 5 7265 5654 2884 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 65 65 E 5 6254 4316 1546 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 62 62 E 5 4405 2770 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 60 60 NE 16 2342 2770 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 59 59 NE 16 1815 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 58 58 NE 16 1579 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 58 58 NE 25 1579 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 57 57 NE 25 1343 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 NE 25 1343 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 56 NE 25 1106 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 55 55 NE 25 868 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 55 NE 25 868 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 54 NE 20 771 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 NE 20 771 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 54 NE 20 771 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 55 55 NE 20 868 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 57 NE 20 1343 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 61 NE 20 3345 2770 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 63 64 E 17 5726 3282 512 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 65 67 E 17 7265 5654 2884 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 67 69 E 17 7852 6680 3910 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 69 71 NE 12 8081 7652 4882 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 69 70 NE 12 7966 7173 4403 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 69 70 NE 12 7966 7173 4403 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 68 68 E 2 7730 6175 3405 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 66 66 E 2 6766 5117 2347 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 63 63 E 2 5181 2770 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 60 60 E 2 2342 2770 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 59 59 E 2 1815 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 58 58 E 2 1579 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 57 E 7 1343 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 57 57 E 7 1343 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 E 7 1106 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 E 7 1106 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 56 E 7 1106 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 55 E 7 868 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 NE 10 868 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 55 NE 10 868 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 55 NE 10 868 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 55 55 NE 10 868 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 57 NE 10 1343 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 60 NE 10 2342 2770 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 63 64 NE 5 5726 3282 512 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 65 67 NE 5 7265 5654 2884 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 67 69 NE 5 7852 6680 3910 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 68 70 NE 5 7966 7173 4403 Blue 11
2 PM Mon 68 69 NE 5 7852 6680 3910 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 68 68 NE 5 7730 6175 3405 Blue 9
4 PM Mon 66 66 SE 3 6766 5117 2347 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 64 64 SE 3 5726 3282 512 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 61 61 SE 3 3345 2770 0 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 59 59 SE 3 1815 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 57 57 SE 3 1343 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 56 SE 3 1106 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 56 E 5 1106 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 55 E 5 868 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 55 E 5 868 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 55 E 5 868 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 54 E 5 771 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 54 E 5 771 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 53 53 E 3 771 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 52 E 3 771 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 E 3 771 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 E 3 771 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 52 E 3 771 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 53 E 3 771 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 54 54 S 9 771 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 55 55 S 9 868 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 57 57 S 9 1343 2770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 57 57 S 9 1343 2770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 57 57 S 9 1343 2770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 55 55 S 9 868 2770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 54 54 S 5 771 2770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 53 53 S 5 771 2770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 51 51 S 5 771 2770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 50 50 S 5 771 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 49 49 S 5 771 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 48 48 S 5 771 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 48 48 W 7 771 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 48 48 W 7 771 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 W 7 771 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 47 47 W 7 771 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 47 W 7 771 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 47 W 7 771 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 47 47 NE 15 771 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 47 47 NE 15 771 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 47 NE 15 771 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 48 NE 15 771 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 49 NE 15 771 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 52 NE 15 771 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 54 55 N 13 868 2770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 56 58 N 13 1579 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 58 60 N 13 2342 2770 0 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 59 61 N 13 3345 2770 0 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 59 60 N 13 2342 2770 0 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 59 60 N 13 2342 2770 0 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 58 58 N 12 1579 2770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 56 56 N 12 1106 2770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 55 55 N 12 868 2770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 53 53 N 12 771 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 52 52 N 12 771 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 52 52 N 12 771 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 52 N 17 771 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 52 N 17 771 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 N 17 771 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 52 N 17 771 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 51 N 17 771 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 51 N 17 771 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 51 N 17 771 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 51 N 17 771 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 51 N 17 771 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 52 N 17 771 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 55 N 17 868 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 57 58 N 17 1579 2770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 60 62 W 8 4405 2770 0 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 62 65 W 8 6254 4316 1546 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 64 67 W 8 7265 5654 2884 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 64 67 W 8 7265 5654 2884 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 65 67 W 8 7265 5654 2884 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 65 66 W 8 6766 5117 2347 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 64 64 W 8 5726 3282 512 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 62 62 W 8 4405 2770 0 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 59 59 W 8 1815 2770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 56 56 W 8 1106 2770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 55 55 W 8 868 2770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 54 W 8 771 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 54 54 NE 15 771 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 53 NE 15 771 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 NE 15 771 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 52 NE 15 771 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 51 NE 15 771 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 50 NE 15 771 2770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com