Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 3 SEP 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 62 62 N 1 1634 2770 0 Blue 1
6 AM Fri 61 61 N 1 1621 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 61 61 N 1 1621 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 65 65 N 3 1671 2770 0 Blue 4
9 AM Fri 78 80 N 3 1985 2770 0 Blue 19
10 AM Fri 89 93 N 3 3688 3031 261 Blue 32
11 AM Fri 92 98 SW 6 7811 4906 2136 Blue 37
12 Noon Fri 93 100 SW 6 9226 6805 4035 Blue 39
1 PM Fri 95 102 SW 6 10337 8436 5666 Blue 41
2 PM Fri 96 103 S 14 10840 9087 6317 Blue 42
3 PM Fri 97 103 S 14 10840 9087 6317 Blue 42
4 PM Fri 98 102 S 14 10337 8436 5666 Blue 41
5 PM Fri 96 98 S 14 7811 4906 2136 Blue 37
6 PM Fri 90 90 S 14 3033 2925 155 Blue 29
7 PM Fri 84 84 S 14 2259 2770 0 Blue 23
8 PM Fri 79 79 NW 3 1947 2770 0 Blue 18
9 PM Fri 75 75 NW 3 1795 2770 0 Blue 14
10 PM Fri 72 72 NW 3 1758 2770 0 Blue 11
11 PM Fri 69 69 NW 5 1720 2770 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sat 67 67 NW 5 1696 2770 0 Blue 6
1 AM Sat 65 65 NW 5 1671 2770 0 Blue 4
2 AM Sat 64 64 N 2 1659 2770 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sat 63 63 N 2 1646 2770 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sat 62 62 N 2 1634 2770 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sat 62 62 NE 3 1634 2770 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sat 61 61 NE 3 1621 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 61 61 NE 3 1621 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 65 65 NE 9 1671 2770 0 Blue 4
9 AM Sat 78 80 NE 9 1985 2770 0 Blue 19
10 AM Sat 89 93 NE 9 3688 3031 261 Blue 32
11 AM Sat 92 98 W 2 7811 4906 2136 Blue 37
12 Noon Sat 93 100 W 2 9226 6805 4035 Blue 39
1 PM Sat 95 102 W 2 10337 8436 5666 Blue 41
2 PM Sat 96 103 S 15 10840 9087 6317 Blue 42
3 PM Sat 97 103 S 15 10840 9087 6317 Blue 42
4 PM Sat 98 102 S 15 10337 8436 5666 Blue 41
5 PM Sat 95 97 S 15 6953 4288 1518 Blue 36
6 PM Sat 89 89 S 15 2997 2770 0 Blue 28
7 PM Sat 83 83 S 15 2167 2770 0 Blue 22
8 PM Sat 77 77 S 15 1871 2770 0 Blue 16
9 PM Sat 72 72 S 15 1758 2770 0 Blue 11
10 PM Sat 70 70 S 15 1733 2770 0 Blue 9
11 PM Sat 66 66 NW 2 1683 2770 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 NW 2 1659 2770 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 61 61 NW 2 1621 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 60 60 NW 2 1587 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 59 59 NW 2 1542 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 58 58 NW 2 1496 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 58 58 NE 2 1496 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 57 57 NE 2 1451 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 57 NE 2 1451 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 61 NE 2 1621 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 71 73 NE 2 1770 2770 0 Blue 12
10 AM Sun 80 84 NE 2 2259 2770 0 Blue 23
11 AM Sun 83 89 S 15 2997 2770 0 Blue 28
12 Noon Sun 84 91 S 15 3080 2961 191 Blue 30
1 PM Sun 85 92 S 15 3252 2996 226 Blue 31
2 PM Sun 86 93 S 15 3688 3031 261 Blue 32
3 PM Sun 87 93 S 15 3688 3031 261 Blue 32
4 PM Sun 88 92 S 15 3252 2996 226 Blue 31
5 PM Sun 86 88 S 15 2962 2770 0 Blue 27
6 PM Sun 81 81 S 15 2023 2770 0 Blue 20
7 PM Sun 76 76 S 15 1833 2770 0 Blue 15
8 PM Sun 71 71 S 15 1745 2770 0 Blue 10
9 PM Sun 68 68 S 15 1708 2770 0 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 66 66 S 15 1683 2770 0 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 63 63 E 7 1646 2770 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 61 61 E 7 1621 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 59 59 E 7 1542 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 58 58 E 7 1496 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 58 E 7 1496 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 57 E 7 1451 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 57 57 E 5 1451 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 56 E 5 1406 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 56 E 5 1406 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 59 59 E 5 1542 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 68 69 E 5 1720 2770 0 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 75 77 E 5 1871 2770 0 Blue 16
11 AM Mon 77 83 S 6 2167 2770 0 Blue 22
12 Noon Mon 78 85 S 6 2351 2770 0 Blue 24
1 PM Mon 79 86 S 6 2486 2770 0 Blue 25
2 PM Mon 80 87 S 6 2927 2770 0 Blue 26
3 PM Mon 81 87 S 6 2927 2770 0 Blue 26
4 PM Mon 82 86 S 6 2486 2770 0 Blue 25
5 PM Mon 80 82 S 6 2075 2770 0 Blue 21
6 PM Mon 76 76 S 6 1833 2770 0 Blue 15
7 PM Mon 71 71 S 6 1745 2770 0 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 67 67 S 6 1696 2770 0 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 64 64 S 6 1659 2770 0 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 62 62 S 6 1634 2770 0 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 60 60 E 5 1587 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 58 E 5 1496 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 57 57 E 5 1451 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 56 E 5 1406 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 55 E 5 1361 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 55 55 E 5 1361 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 54 E 3 1358 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 54 E 3 1358 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 E 3 1358 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 57 E 3 1451 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 65 65 E 3 1671 2770 0 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 73 73 E 3 1770 2770 0 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 75 81 S 13 2023 2770 0 Blue 20
12 Noon Tue 76 83 S 13 2167 2770 0 Blue 22
1 PM Tue 77 84 S 13 2259 2770 0 Blue 23
2 PM Tue 78 85 S 13 2351 2770 0 Blue 24
3 PM Tue 79 85 S 13 2351 2770 0 Blue 24
4 PM Tue 79 83 S 13 2167 2770 0 Blue 22
5 PM Tue 78 80 S 13 1985 2770 0 Blue 19
6 PM Tue 74 74 S 13 1782 2770 0 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 70 70 S 13 1733 2770 0 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 65 65 S 13 1671 2770 0 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 63 63 S 13 1646 2770 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 61 61 S 13 1621 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 59 59 SE 5 1542 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 SE 5 1451 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 56 SE 5 1406 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 SE 5 1361 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 SE 5 1358 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 54 SE 5 1358 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 53 53 E 5 1358 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 E 5 1358 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 53 E 5 1358 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 56 E 5 1406 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 63 63 E 5 1646 2770 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 70 70 E 5 1733 2770 0 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 72 78 SW 7 1909 2770 0 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 73 80 SW 7 1985 2770 0 Blue 19
1 PM Wed 74 81 SW 7 2023 2770 0 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 75 82 SW 7 2075 2770 0 Blue 21
3 PM Wed 75 81 SW 7 2023 2770 0 Blue 20
4 PM Wed 76 80 SW 7 1985 2770 0 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 74 76 SW 7 1833 2770 0 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 71 71 SW 7 1745 2770 0 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 67 67 SW 7 1696 2770 0 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 64 64 SW 7 1659 2770 0 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 61 61 SW 7 1621 2770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 60 SW 7 1587 2770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 58 E 3 1496 2770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 E 3 1451 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 55 E 3 1361 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 54 E 3 1358 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 54 E 3 1358 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 54 E 3 1358 2770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com