Detailed Predictions for: Pine Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 4000
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 10 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
7 AM Wed 26 26 N 21 6033 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 28 28 N 21 6033 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 33 34 N 21 7903 7000 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 34 36 NW 24 8980 7162 162 White 4
11 AM Wed 35 38 NW 24 9427 8524 1524 White 6
12 Noon Wed 31 34 NW 24 7903 7000 0 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 31 34 NW 24 7903 7000 0 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 29 31 NW 24 6033 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 29 30 NW 24 6033 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 28 29 N 35 6033 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 26 26 N 35 6033 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 25 25 N 35 6033 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 25 25 N 35 6033 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 25 25 N 35 6033 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 24 24 N 35 6033 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 24 24 N 24 6033 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 23 23 N 24 6033 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 23 23 N 24 6033 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 22 22 N 11 6033 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 23 23 N 11 6033 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 23 23 N 11 6033 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 23 23 N 16 6033 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 22 22 N 16 6033 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 22 22 N 16 6033 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 23 23 N 16 6033 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 29 30 N 16 6033 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 40 42 N 16 10162 9594 2594 Blue 10
10 AM Thu 45 49 NE 8 11812 10850 3850 White 17
11 AM Thu 46 51 NE 8 12230 11552 4552 White 19
12 Noon Thu 41 46 NE 8 10879 10316 3316 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 40 45 E 8 10700 10138 3138 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 38 42 E 8 10162 9594 2594 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 38 40 E 8 9800 9227 2227 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 35 36 E 8 8980 7162 162 White 4
5 PM Thu 32 32 E 8 6429 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 31 31 E 8 6033 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 31 31 E 8 6033 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 31 31 E 8 6033 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 30 30 E 8 6033 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 30 30 E 6 6033 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 29 29 E 6 6033 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 28 28 E 6 6033 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 28 28 E 6 6033 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 29 29 E 6 6033 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 29 29 E 6 6033 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 28 28 S 9 6033 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 27 27 S 9 6033 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 27 27 S 9 6033 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 28 28 S 9 6033 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 34 35 S 9 8579 7000 0 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 47 49 S 9 11812 10850 3850 White 17
10 AM Fri 51 54 W 11 12854 12854 5854 White 22
11 AM Fri 52 56 W 11 13268 13268 6268 White 24
12 Noon Fri 47 52 W 11 12438 12089 5089 White 20
1 PM Fri 47 51 W 11 12230 11552 4552 White 19
2 PM Fri 44 47 W 11 11204 10494 3494 Blue 15
3 PM Fri 44 46 W 11 10879 10316 3316 Blue 14
4 PM Fri 41 41 W 11 9983 9411 2411 Blue 9
5 PM Fri 39 39 W 11 9616 9043 2043 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 37 37 W 11 9204 7861 861 White 5
7 PM Fri 37 37 W 11 9204 7861 861 White 5
8 PM Fri 37 37 W 11 9204 7861 861 White 5
9 PM Fri 36 36 W 11 8980 7162 162 White 4
10 PM Fri 36 36 N 14 8980 7162 162 White 4
11 PM Fri 35 35 N 14 8579 7000 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 34 34 N 14 7903 7000 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 34 34 N 14 7903 7000 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 35 35 N 14 8579 7000 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sat 34 34 N 14 7903 7000 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sat 34 34 N 14 7903 7000 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sat 33 33 N 14 7189 7000 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sat 33 33 N 14 7189 7000 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sat 34 34 N 14 7903 7000 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sat 36 36 N 14 8980 7162 162 White 4
9 AM Sat 41 42 N 14 10162 9594 2594 Blue 10
10 AM Sat 43 45 NW 7 10700 10138 3138 Blue 13
11 AM Sat 44 47 NW 7 11204 10494 3494 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 40 43 NW 7 10342 9777 2777 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 40 43 NW 7 10342 9777 2777 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 38 40 NW 7 9800 9227 2227 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 38 39 NW 7 9616 9043 2043 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 37 37 NW 7 9204 7861 861 White 5
5 PM Sat 35 35 NW 7 8579 7000 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 34 34 NW 7 7903 7000 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 34 34 NW 7 7903 7000 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 34 34 NW 7 7903 7000 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 34 34 NW 7 7903 7000 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 33 33 N 5 7189 7000 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sat 33 33 N 5 7189 7000 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 32 32 N 5 6429 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 32 32 N 5 6429 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 33 33 N 5 7189 7000 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 32 32 N 5 6429 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 32 32 N 2 6429 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 32 32 N 2 6429 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 32 32 N 2 6429 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 33 33 N 2 7189 7000 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sun 38 39 N 2 9616 9043 2043 Blue 7
9 AM Sun 49 51 N 2 12230 11552 4552 White 19
10 AM Sun 53 56 W 2 13268 13268 6268 White 24
11 AM Sun 54 58 W 2 13682 13682 6682 White 26
12 Noon Sun 49 54 W 2 12854 12854 5854 White 22
1 PM Sun 48 52 W 2 12438 12089 5089 White 20
2 PM Sun 45 48 W 2 11600 10672 3672 White 16
3 PM Sun 45 47 W 2 11204 10494 3494 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 43 44 W 2 10521 9959 2959 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 40 40 W 2 9800 9227 2227 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 38 38 W 2 9427 8524 1524 White 6
7 PM Sun 38 38 W 2 9427 8524 1524 White 6
8 PM Sun 38 38 W 2 9427 8524 1524 White 6
9 PM Sun 38 38 W 2 9427 8524 1524 White 6
10 PM Sun 37 37 NE 2 9204 7861 861 White 5
11 PM Sun 36 36 NE 2 8980 7162 162 White 4
12 Midnight Mon 35 35 NE 2 8579 7000 0 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 35 35 NE 2 8579 7000 0 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 36 36 NE 2 8980 7162 162 White 4
3 AM Mon 36 36 NE 2 8980 7162 162 White 4
4 AM Mon 35 35 NE 2 8579 7000 0 Blue 3
5 AM Mon 34 34 NE 2 7903 7000 0 Blue 2
6 AM Mon 35 35 NE 2 8579 7000 0 Blue 3
7 AM Mon 36 36 NE 2 8980 7162 162 White 4
8 AM Mon 42 43 NE 2 10342 9777 2777 Blue 11
9 AM Mon 55 57 NE 2 13475 13475 6475 White 25
10 AM Mon 59 62 SE 5 14504 14504 7504 White 30
11 AM Mon 60 64 SE 5 14913 14913 7913 White 32
12 Noon Mon 54 59 SE 5 13887 13887 6887 White 27
1 PM Mon 54 59 SE 5 13887 13887 6887 White 27
2 PM Mon 51 54 SE 5 12854 12854 5854 White 22
3 PM Mon 51 53 SE 5 12647 12647 5647 White 21
4 PM Mon 48 49 SE 5 11812 10850 3850 White 17
5 PM Mon 44 44 SE 5 10521 9959 2959 Blue 12
6 PM Mon 43 43 SE 5 10342 9777 2777 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 43 43 SE 5 10342 9777 2777 Blue 11
8 PM Mon 42 42 SE 5 10162 9594 2594 Blue 10
9 PM Mon 42 42 SE 5 10162 9594 2594 Blue 10
10 PM Mon 41 41 SE 7 9983 9411 2411 Blue 9
11 PM Mon 40 40 SE 7 9800 9227 2227 Blue 8
12 Midnight Tue 39 39 SE 7 9616 9043 2043 Blue 7
1 AM Tue 39 39 SE 7 9616 9043 2043 Blue 7
2 AM Tue 40 40 SE 7 9800 9227 2227 Blue 8
3 AM Tue 40 40 SE 7 9800 9227 2227 Blue 8
4 AM Tue 39 39 SE 7 9616 9043 2043 Blue 7
5 AM Tue 38 38 SE 7 9427 8524 1524 White 6
6 AM Tue 38 38 SE 7 9427 8524 1524 White 6

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com