Detailed Predictions for: Pine Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 4000
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 3 SEP 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 58 58 NW 6 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 57 57 NW 6 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 59 59 NW 6 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 66 66 NE 2 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 75 77 NE 2 10632 8585 1585 Blue 3
10 AM Fri 80 84 NE 2 12903 11888 4888 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 81 86 S 8 13699 12522 5522 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 83 90 S 8 15598 14067 7067 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 84 91 S 8 16045 14542 7542 Blue 16
2 PM Fri 84 91 SW 8 16045 14542 7542 Blue 16
3 PM Fri 85 91 SW 8 16045 14542 7542 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 84 88 SW 8 14673 13145 6145 Blue 13
5 PM Fri 80 82 SW 8 12269 11242 4242 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 76 76 SW 8 9924 7729 729 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 72 72 SW 8 6817 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 68 68 N 8 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 66 66 N 8 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 65 65 N 8 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 63 63 N 6 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 N 6 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 62 62 N 6 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 61 61 N 10 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 61 61 N 10 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 61 61 N 10 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 59 59 NE 6 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 57 57 NE 6 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 59 59 NE 6 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 66 66 E 5 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 75 77 E 5 10632 8585 1585 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 80 84 E 5 12903 11888 4888 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 81 86 W 1 13699 12522 5522 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 83 90 W 1 15598 14067 7067 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 84 91 W 1 16045 14542 7542 Blue 16
2 PM Sat 84 91 SW 8 16045 14542 7542 Blue 16
3 PM Sat 85 91 SW 8 16045 14542 7542 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 83 87 SW 8 14193 12835 5835 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 79 81 SW 8 11948 10915 3915 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 74 74 SW 8 8651 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 70 70 SW 8 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 64 64 SW 8 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 61 61 SW 8 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 60 60 SW 8 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 59 59 NW 3 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 58 NW 3 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 57 NW 3 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 56 NW 3 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 55 NW 3 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 55 NW 3 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 53 NW 8 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 NW 8 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 53 NW 8 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 62 62 NW 8 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 74 76 NW 8 9924 7729 729 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 80 84 NW 8 12903 11888 4888 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 82 87 SW 8 14193 12835 5835 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 84 91 SW 8 16045 14542 7542 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 85 92 SW 8 16482 15006 8006 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 85 92 SW 8 16482 15006 8006 Blue 17
3 PM Sun 86 92 SW 8 16482 15006 8006 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 85 89 SW 8 15141 13578 6578 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 80 82 SW 8 12269 11242 4242 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 75 75 SW 8 9314 7000 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 70 70 SW 8 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 64 64 SW 8 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 61 61 SW 8 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 60 60 SW 8 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 58 58 N 9 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 N 9 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 N 9 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 N 9 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 55 N 9 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 N 9 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 53 N 10 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 50 N 10 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 N 10 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 59 59 N 10 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 70 72 N 10 6817 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 75 79 N 10 11296 9853 2853 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 77 82 W 7 12269 11242 4242 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 78 85 W 7 13215 12206 5206 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 79 86 W 7 13699 12522 5522 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 80 87 W 7 14193 12835 5835 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 80 86 W 7 13699 12522 5522 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 79 83 W 7 12587 11567 4567 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 75 77 W 7 10632 8585 1585 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 71 71 W 7 5741 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 67 67 W 7 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 62 62 W 7 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 59 59 W 7 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 58 58 W 7 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 57 57 N 3 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 N 3 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 55 N 3 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 55 55 N 3 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 54 N 3 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 N 3 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 52 NW 2 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 50 NW 2 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 NW 2 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 58 NW 2 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 67 69 NW 2 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 72 75 NW 2 9314 7000 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 74 79 W 3 11296 9853 2853 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 75 82 W 3 12269 11242 4242 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 76 83 W 3 12587 11567 4567 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 76 83 W 3 12587 11567 4567 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 77 83 W 3 12587 11567 4567 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 76 80 W 3 11623 10433 3433 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 72 74 W 3 8651 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 68 68 W 3 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 64 64 W 3 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 60 60 W 3 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 58 W 3 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 57 57 W 3 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 55 W 5 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 W 5 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 54 W 5 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 53 W 5 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 53 W 5 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 53 W 5 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 W 5 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 49 W 5 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 51 W 5 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 56 W 5 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 66 W 5 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 68 71 W 5 5741 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 70 75 W 6 9314 7000 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 71 78 W 6 10966 9252 2252 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 72 79 W 6 11296 9853 2853 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 72 79 W 6 11296 9853 2853 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 72 78 W 6 10966 9252 2252 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 72 76 W 6 9924 7729 729 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 69 71 W 6 5741 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 65 65 W 6 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 62 62 W 6 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 58 W 6 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 56 W 6 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 56 W 6 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 54 54 N 6 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 N 6 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 53 N 6 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 53 N 6 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 52 N 6 4990 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 52 N 6 4990 7000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com