Detailed Predictions for: Pine Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 4000
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 4 FEB 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
4 AM Sat 42 42 E 16 7206 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 E 16 7206 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 41 E 16 6662 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 42 E 16 7206 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 42 42 E 16 7206 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 44 45 E 16 7976 7187 187 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 45 47 E 17 8218 7847 847 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 46 48 E 17 8339 7968 968 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 48 51 E 17 8692 8330 1330 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 48 50 E 10 8575 8210 1210 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 48 50 E 10 8575 8210 1210 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 46 47 E 10 8218 7847 847 Blue 4
4 PM Sat 45 45 E 10 7976 7187 187 Blue 2
5 PM Sat 43 43 E 10 7725 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 41 41 E 10 6662 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 39 39 E 12 5519 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 39 39 E 12 5519 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 40 40 E 12 6101 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 40 40 E 12 6101 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 40 40 E 12 6101 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 39 39 E 12 5519 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 39 39 E 12 5519 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 38 38 E 12 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 38 38 E 12 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 38 38 E 12 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 37 37 E 12 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 37 37 E 12 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 38 38 E 12 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 39 39 E 12 5519 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 42 42 E 12 7206 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 44 45 E 14 7976 7187 187 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 47 49 E 14 8459 8089 1089 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 49 51 E 14 8692 8330 1330 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 50 52 E 13 8848 8450 1450 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 49 50 E 13 8575 8210 1210 Blue 7
3 PM Sun 47 48 E 13 8339 7968 968 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 45 45 SE 9 7976 7187 187 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 42 42 SE 9 7206 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 38 38 SE 9 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 36 36 SE 9 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 36 36 SE 9 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 37 37 SE 9 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 38 38 SE 12 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 38 38 SE 12 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 37 37 SE 12 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 37 37 SE 12 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 36 36 SE 12 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 36 36 SE 12 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 36 36 SE 5 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 36 36 SE 5 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 36 36 SE 5 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 37 37 SE 5 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 39 39 SE 5 5519 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 41 41 SE 5 6662 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 44 45 S 8 7976 7187 187 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 46 47 S 8 8218 7847 847 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 49 51 S 8 8692 8330 1330 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 50 52 S 8 8848 8450 1450 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 49 50 S 8 8575 8210 1210 Blue 7
3 PM Mon 46 46 S 8 8097 7706 706 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 43 43 SE 14 7725 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 41 41 SE 14 6662 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 39 39 SE 14 5519 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 38 38 SE 14 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 39 39 SE 14 5519 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 40 40 SE 14 6101 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 42 42 S 15 7206 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 42 42 S 15 7206 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 41 41 S 15 6662 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 40 40 S 15 6101 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 40 40 S 15 6101 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 39 39 S 15 5519 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 39 39 S 14 5519 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 39 39 S 14 5519 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 39 39 S 14 5519 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 38 38 S 14 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 38 38 S 14 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 34 34 S 14 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 34 34 SE 14 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 33 33 SE 14 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 32 32 SE 14 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 33 33 SE 14 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 32 32 SE 14 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 30 30 SE 14 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 30 30 S 9 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 29 29 S 9 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 28 28 S 9 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 28 28 S 9 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 27 27 S 9 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 27 27 S 9 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 26 26 NW 13 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 26 26 NW 13 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 25 25 NW 13 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 25 25 NW 13 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 25 25 NW 13 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 26 26 NW 13 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 26 26 NE 14 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 25 25 NE 14 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 24 24 NE 14 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 24 24 NE 14 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 26 26 NE 14 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 29 29 NE 14 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 33 34 NE 14 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 36 38 NE 14 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 39 41 NE 14 6662 7000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 41 43 NE 14 7725 7000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 41 42 NE 14 7206 7000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 40 41 NE 14 6662 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 39 39 N 17 5519 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 36 36 N 17 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 33 33 N 17 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 36 36 N 17 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 36 36 N 17 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 36 36 N 17 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 36 36 NE 25 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 37 37 NE 25 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 36 36 NE 25 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 36 36 NE 25 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 36 36 NE 25 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 37 37 NE 25 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 37 37 NE 25 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 37 37 NE 25 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 37 37 NE 25 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 38 38 NE 25 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 40 40 NE 25 6101 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 43 44 NE 25 7854 7000 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 45 47 SW 3 8218 7847 847 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 48 51 SW 3 8692 8330 1330 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 49 52 SW 3 8848 8450 1450 Blue 9
1 PM Thu 49 52 SW 3 8848 8450 1450 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 50 52 SW 3 8848 8450 1450 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 49 50 SW 3 8575 8210 1210 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 47 47 SW 3 8218 7847 847 Blue 4
5 PM Thu 44 44 SW 3 7854 7000 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 41 41 SW 3 6662 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 39 39 SW 3 5519 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 39 39 SW 3 5519 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 39 39 SW 3 5519 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 40 40 E 6 6101 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 40 40 E 6 6101 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 39 39 E 6 5519 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 38 38 E 6 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 38 38 E 6 4921 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 38 38 E 6 4921 7000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com