Detailed Predictions for: Pine Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 4000
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 18 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Thu 40 40 N 5 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 40 40 N 5 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 N 5 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 44 44 NE 8 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 52 NE 8 7882 7000 0 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 56 59 NE 8 10286 9092 2092 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 58 62 NE 8 11320 10246 3246 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 61 66 NE 8 13347 11789 4789 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 62 68 NE 8 16002 12766 5766 White 18
2 PM Thu 62 67 N 13 14797 12286 5286 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 63 67 N 13 14797 12286 5286 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 61 63 N 13 11889 10535 3535 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 55 56 N 14 9133 7958 958 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 51 51 N 14 7801 7000 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 45 45 N 14 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 43 43 N 14 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 42 42 N 14 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 43 43 N 14 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 NE 4 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 NE 4 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 NE 4 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 42 42 N 12 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 40 40 N 12 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 39 39 N 12 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 40 40 N 8 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 40 40 N 8 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 41 41 N 8 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 43 43 NE 9 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 51 NE 9 7801 7000 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 54 57 NE 9 9543 8261 1261 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 56 60 NE 4 10577 9498 2498 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 59 64 NE 4 12388 10822 3822 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 59 65 NE 4 12873 11220 4220 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 60 65 SE 3 12873 11220 4220 Blue 15
3 PM Fri 60 64 SE 3 12388 10822 3822 Blue 14
4 PM Fri 58 60 SE 3 10577 9498 2498 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 53 54 NE 8 8291 7797 797 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 49 49 NE 8 6845 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 44 44 NE 8 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 42 42 NE 8 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 41 41 NE 8 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 42 42 NE 8 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 43 43 N 8 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 N 8 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 42 42 N 8 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 41 41 N 8 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 N 8 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 38 38 N 8 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 39 39 NE 5 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 40 40 NE 5 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 40 40 NE 5 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 43 43 NE 5 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 51 52 NE 5 7882 7000 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 56 59 NE 5 10286 9092 2092 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 58 62 SE 6 11320 10246 3246 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 61 66 SE 6 13347 11789 4789 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 62 68 SE 6 16002 12766 5766 White 18
2 PM Sat 62 67 SE 6 14797 12286 5286 Blue 17
3 PM Sat 63 67 SE 6 14797 12286 5286 Blue 17
4 PM Sat 60 62 SE 6 11320 10246 3246 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 54 55 SE 6 8716 7877 877 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 49 49 SE 6 6845 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 43 43 SE 6 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 41 41 SE 6 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 40 40 SE 6 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 41 41 SE 6 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 42 42 W 2 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 W 2 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 40 40 W 2 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 39 39 W 2 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 37 37 W 2 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 36 36 W 2 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 37 37 S 3 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 38 38 S 3 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 38 38 S 3 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 42 42 S 3 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 50 51 S 3 7801 7000 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 55 57 S 3 9543 8261 1261 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 58 62 W 11 11320 10246 3246 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 61 66 W 11 13347 11789 4789 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 62 67 W 11 14797 12286 5286 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 62 67 W 11 14797 12286 5286 Blue 17
3 PM Sun 63 67 W 11 14797 12286 5286 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 61 63 W 11 11889 10535 3535 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 54 55 W 11 8716 7877 877 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 50 50 W 11 7647 7000 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 44 44 W 11 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 42 42 W 11 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 40 40 W 11 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 42 42 W 11 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 43 43 SW 3 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 SW 3 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 41 41 SW 3 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 40 40 SW 3 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 38 38 SW 3 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 37 37 SW 3 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 38 38 W 2 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 38 38 W 2 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 39 39 W 2 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 41 41 W 2 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 48 48 W 2 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 52 54 W 2 8291 7797 797 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 54 57 NW 7 9543 8261 1261 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 57 60 NW 7 10577 9498 2498 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 57 61 NW 7 10867 9897 2897 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 58 61 NW 7 10867 9897 2897 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 58 60 NW 7 10577 9498 2498 Blue 11
4 PM Mon 56 57 NW 7 9543 8261 1261 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 49 49 NW 7 6845 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 44 44 NW 7 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 39 39 NW 7 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 36 36 NW 7 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 35 35 NW 7 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 36 36 NW 7 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 37 37 NW 10 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 36 36 NW 10 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 36 36 NW 10 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 35 35 NW 10 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 33 33 NW 10 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 32 32 NW 10 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 32 32 N 19 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 33 33 N 19 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 33 33 N 19 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 36 36 N 19 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 43 43 N 19 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 47 49 N 19 6845 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 49 52 N 23 7882 7000 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 52 56 N 23 9133 7958 958 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 53 58 N 23 9947 8680 1680 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 53 57 N 23 9543 8261 1261 Blue 8
3 PM Tue 54 57 N 23 9543 8261 1261 Blue 8
4 PM Tue 51 53 N 23 7964 7629 629 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 46 47 N 23 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 42 42 N 23 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 37 37 N 23 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 34 34 N 23 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 33 33 N 23 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 35 35 N 23 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 35 35 N 22 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 35 35 N 22 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 34 34 N 22 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 33 33 N 22 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 31 31 N 22 4895 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 31 31 N 22 4895 7000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com