Detailed Predictions for: Ojai
Launch Altitude (f): 4700
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 3 SEP 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 47 47 NW 6 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 46 NW 6 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 44 44 NW 6 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 57 57 N 5 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 79 81 N 5 5473 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 87 91 N 5 11760 10733 6033 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 87 92 S 13 12074 11053 6353 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 87 94 S 13 12694 11684 6984 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 87 94 S 13 12694 11684 6984 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 87 94 S 8 12694 11684 6984 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 88 94 S 8 12694 11684 6984 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 88 92 S 8 12074 11053 6353 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 85 87 S 8 10242 8241 3541 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 83 83 S 8 7483 4700 0 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 77 77 S 8 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 71 71 N 1 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 66 66 N 1 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 63 63 N 1 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 60 60 N 8 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 N 8 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 56 56 N 8 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 52 N 12 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 50 N 12 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 N 12 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 48 N 13 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 47 N 13 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 45 N 13 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 57 E 7 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 79 81 E 7 5473 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 87 91 E 7 11760 10733 6033 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 87 92 S 6 12074 11053 6353 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 87 94 S 6 12694 11684 6984 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 87 94 S 6 12694 11684 6984 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 87 94 S 8 12694 11684 6984 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 88 94 S 8 12694 11684 6984 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 88 92 S 8 12074 11053 6353 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 85 87 S 8 10242 8241 3541 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 84 84 S 8 8347 5429 729 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 79 79 S 8 3928 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 73 73 S 8 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 68 68 S 8 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 66 66 S 8 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 63 63 NW 3 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 61 61 NW 3 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 59 59 NW 3 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 56 NW 3 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 54 NW 3 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 54 NW 3 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 52 N 8 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 N 8 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 50 N 8 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 61 N 8 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 81 83 N 8 7483 4700 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 88 92 N 8 12074 11053 6353 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 88 93 S 8 12385 11370 6670 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 89 96 S 8 13337 12304 7604 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 88 95 S 8 13000 11996 7296 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 88 95 S 8 13000 11996 7296 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 89 95 S 8 13000 11996 7296 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 89 93 S 8 12385 11370 6670 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 86 88 S 8 10800 8973 4273 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 84 84 S 8 8347 5429 729 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 79 79 S 8 3928 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 73 73 S 8 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 68 68 S 8 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 66 66 S 8 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 63 63 N 7 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 61 61 N 7 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 59 59 N 7 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 N 7 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 N 7 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 53 N 7 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 51 N 7 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 51 51 N 7 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 49 49 N 7 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 58 N 7 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 76 78 N 7 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 82 86 N 7 9665 7392 2692 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 82 87 SW 6 10242 8241 3541 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 83 90 SW 6 11443 10135 5435 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 82 89 SW 6 11123 9565 4865 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 82 89 SW 6 11123 9565 4865 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 83 89 SW 6 11123 9565 4865 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 83 87 SW 6 10242 8241 3541 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 80 82 SW 6 6535 4700 0 Blue 1
6 PM Mon 79 79 SW 6 3928 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 75 75 SW 6 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 69 69 SW 6 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 65 65 SW 6 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 63 63 SW 6 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 61 61 E 2 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 E 2 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 57 57 E 2 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 54 E 2 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 53 53 E 2 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 53 53 E 2 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 51 51 NE 2 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 50 NE 2 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 49 NE 2 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 58 NE 2 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 73 75 NE 2 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 79 83 NE 2 7483 4700 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 79 84 SW 5 8347 5429 729 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 79 86 SW 5 9665 7392 2692 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 79 86 SW 5 9665 7392 2692 Blue 5
2 PM Tue 79 86 SW 5 9665 7392 2692 Blue 5
3 PM Tue 80 86 SW 5 9665 7392 2692 Blue 5
4 PM Tue 80 84 SW 5 8347 5429 729 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 77 79 SW 5 3928 4700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 76 76 SW 5 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 72 72 SW 5 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 67 67 SW 5 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 63 63 SW 5 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 61 61 SW 5 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 59 59 W 3 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 W 3 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 56 W 3 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 53 W 3 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 W 3 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 51 W 3 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 50 W 3 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 49 W 3 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 48 W 3 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 56 W 3 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 70 72 W 3 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 75 79 W 3 3928 4700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 75 80 SW 7 4605 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 75 82 SW 7 6535 4700 0 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 75 82 SW 7 6535 4700 0 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 75 82 SW 7 6535 4700 0 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 76 82 SW 7 6535 4700 0 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 76 80 SW 7 4605 4700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 74 76 SW 7 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 72 72 SW 7 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 69 69 SW 7 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 64 64 SW 7 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 61 61 SW 7 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 60 SW 7 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 57 57 N 3 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 N 3 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 55 N 3 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 52 N 3 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 51 N 3 3340 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 51 N 3 3340 4700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com