Detailed Predictions for: Ojai
Launch Altitude (f): 4700
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 19 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 37 37 N 10 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 36 36 N 10 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 37 37 N 10 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 39 39 N 9 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 53 54 N 9 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 63 N 9 5983 5096 396 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 61 65 SE 2 6559 5678 978 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 62 67 SE 2 7127 6252 1552 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 63 69 SE 2 7689 6820 2120 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 64 69 SE 2 7689 6820 2120 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 64 68 SE 2 7409 6537 1837 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 63 66 SE 2 6844 5966 1266 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 62 63 NW 2 5983 5096 396 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 59 59 NW 2 4589 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 54 54 NW 2 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 50 50 N 7 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 48 48 N 7 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 46 46 N 7 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 45 45 N 12 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 N 12 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 41 41 N 12 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 40 40 N 10 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 N 10 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 38 38 N 10 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 38 38 N 10 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 38 38 N 10 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 38 38 N 10 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 41 41 N 6 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 57 N 6 3564 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 64 67 N 6 7127 6252 1552 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 65 69 SE 7 7689 6820 2120 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 66 71 SE 7 8243 7380 2680 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 67 73 SE 7 8782 7933 3233 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 68 73 S 7 8782 7933 3233 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 68 72 S 7 8515 7657 2957 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 67 70 S 7 7967 7101 2401 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 65 66 SE 2 6844 5966 1266 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 62 62 SE 2 5692 4700 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 56 56 SE 2 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 51 51 SE 2 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 48 48 SE 2 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 46 46 SE 2 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 44 44 NE 6 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 NE 6 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 40 40 NE 6 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 38 38 NE 6 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 37 37 NE 6 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 36 36 NE 6 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 36 36 E 1 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 36 36 E 1 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 36 36 E 1 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 39 39 E 1 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 56 E 1 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 64 67 E 1 7127 6252 1552 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 65 69 S 5 7689 6820 2120 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 65 70 S 5 7967 7101 2401 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 67 73 S 5 8782 7933 3233 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 68 73 S 5 8782 7933 3233 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 68 72 S 5 8515 7657 2957 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 67 70 S 5 7967 7101 2401 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 65 66 W 4 6844 5966 1266 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 62 62 W 4 5692 4700 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 56 56 W 4 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 51 51 W 4 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 49 49 W 4 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 46 W 4 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 45 45 NE 3 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 43 43 NE 3 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 41 41 NE 3 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 39 39 NE 3 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 38 38 NE 3 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 37 37 NE 3 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 37 37 N 3 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 37 37 N 3 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 37 37 N 3 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 40 40 N 3 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 53 54 N 3 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 60 62 N 3 5692 4700 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 61 64 S 6 6272 5388 688 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 61 64 S 6 6272 5388 688 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 62 66 S 6 6844 5966 1266 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 63 66 S 6 6844 5966 1266 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 63 66 S 6 6844 5966 1266 Blue 6
4 PM Mon 63 64 S 6 6272 5388 688 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 61 61 SW 8 5399 4700 0 Blue 2
6 PM Mon 57 57 SW 8 3564 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 51 51 SW 8 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 46 46 SW 8 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 43 43 SW 8 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 41 41 SW 8 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 40 40 NW 5 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 38 38 NW 5 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 35 35 NW 5 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 33 33 NW 5 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 32 32 NW 5 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 31 31 NW 5 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 31 31 NW 6 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 31 31 NW 6 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 32 32 NW 6 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 34 34 NW 6 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 49 50 NW 6 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 57 59 NW 6 4589 4700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 58 61 N 16 5399 4700 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 59 63 N 16 5983 5096 396 Blue 4
1 PM Tue 60 64 N 16 6272 5388 688 Blue 4
2 PM Tue 61 64 N 16 6272 5388 688 Blue 4
3 PM Tue 61 64 N 16 6272 5388 688 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 61 63 N 16 5983 5096 396 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 59 60 N 16 5104 4700 0 Blue 1
6 PM Tue 55 55 N 16 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 49 49 N 16 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 45 45 N 16 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 42 42 N 16 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 40 40 N 16 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 38 38 N 14 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 37 37 N 14 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 34 34 N 14 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 32 32 N 14 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 31 31 N 14 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 30 30 N 14 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 30 30 NE 10 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 30 30 NE 10 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 31 31 NE 10 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 33 33 NE 10 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 49 50 NE 10 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 57 59 NE 10 4589 4700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 58 62 S 4 5692 4700 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 59 64 S 4 6272 5388 688 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 60 65 S 4 6559 5678 978 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 61 66 S 4 6844 5966 1266 Blue 6
3 PM Wed 61 65 S 4 6559 5678 978 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 61 63 S 4 5983 5096 396 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 59 60 S 5 5104 4700 0 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 56 56 S 5 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 51 51 S 5 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 47 47 S 5 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 45 45 S 5 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 43 43 S 5 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 42 42 E 3 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 40 40 E 3 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 38 38 E 3 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 37 37 E 3 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 36 36 E 3 3543 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 35 35 E 3 3543 4700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com