Detailed Predictions for: Ojai
Launch Altitude (f): 4700
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 4 FEB 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
4 AM Sat 43 43 NE 14 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 NE 14 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 42 NE 14 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 43 43 NE 14 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 47 47 NE 14 3664 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 53 NE 14 7565 5942 1242 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 56 58 NE 17 8286 7916 3216 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 57 59 NE 17 8404 8034 3334 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 57 60 NE 17 8518 8152 3452 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 57 59 E 13 8404 8034 3334 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 57 59 E 13 8404 8034 3334 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 56 57 E 13 8167 7798 3098 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 54 54 E 12 7812 6480 1780 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 52 52 E 12 7050 5387 687 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 49 49 E 12 5409 4700 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 47 47 NE 10 3664 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 46 46 NE 10 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 46 46 NE 10 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 45 45 NE 12 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 45 45 NE 12 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 NE 12 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 44 NE 12 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 44 NE 12 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 NE 12 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 43 NE 12 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 NE 12 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 42 42 NE 12 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 42 42 NE 12 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 46 NE 12 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 51 51 NE 12 6520 4737 37 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 55 56 E 12 8049 7509 2809 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 58 60 E 12 8518 8152 3452 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 59 61 E 12 8632 8270 3570 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 59 61 E 10 8632 8270 3570 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 59 60 E 10 8518 8152 3452 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 57 58 E 10 8286 7916 3216 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 55 55 E 9 7930 7002 2302 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 52 52 E 9 7050 5387 687 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 49 49 E 9 5409 4700 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 47 47 E 9 3664 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 45 45 E 9 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 45 45 E 9 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 44 44 E 9 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 43 43 E 9 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 43 43 E 9 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 42 42 E 9 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 42 42 E 9 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 41 41 E 9 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 41 41 NE 7 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 40 40 NE 7 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 40 NE 7 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 41 41 NE 7 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 45 NE 7 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 50 50 NE 7 5974 4700 0 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 55 56 SE 8 8049 7509 2809 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 57 58 SE 8 8286 7916 3216 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 59 61 SE 8 8632 8270 3570 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 59 61 SE 8 8632 8270 3570 Blue 13
2 PM Mon 58 59 SE 8 8404 8034 3334 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 56 56 SE 8 8049 7509 2809 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 54 54 SE 6 7812 6480 1780 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 51 51 SE 6 6520 4737 37 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 49 49 SE 6 5409 4700 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 47 47 SE 6 3664 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 47 47 SE 6 3664 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 47 47 SE 6 3664 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 47 47 SE 6 3664 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 47 47 SE 6 3664 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 SE 6 3664 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 SE 6 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 SE 6 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 46 SE 6 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 45 45 SE 5 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 44 44 SE 5 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 43 SE 5 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 43 43 SE 5 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 44 44 SE 5 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 45 45 SE 5 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 47 47 SE 16 3664 4700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 49 49 SE 16 5409 4700 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 50 50 SE 16 5974 4700 0 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 50 50 SE 16 5974 4700 0 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 49 49 SE 16 5409 4700 0 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 47 47 SE 16 3664 4700 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 44 44 S 8 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 42 42 S 8 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 41 41 S 8 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 40 40 S 8 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 38 38 S 8 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 37 37 S 8 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 35 35 NW 10 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 34 34 NW 10 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 33 33 NW 10 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 33 33 NW 10 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 32 32 NW 10 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 32 32 NW 10 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 32 32 NE 14 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 31 31 NE 14 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 31 31 NE 14 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 32 32 NE 14 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 37 37 NE 14 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 43 43 NE 14 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 47 48 NE 14 4755 4700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 50 52 NE 14 7050 5387 687 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 51 53 NE 14 7565 5942 1242 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 51 53 NE 14 7565 5942 1242 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 51 52 NE 14 7050 5387 687 Blue 4
3 PM Wed 50 51 NE 14 6520 4737 37 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 48 48 N 10 4755 4700 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 46 46 N 10 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 44 44 N 10 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 43 43 N 10 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 42 42 N 10 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 42 42 N 10 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 42 42 N 14 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 41 41 N 14 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 41 41 N 14 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 41 41 N 14 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 41 41 N 14 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 41 41 N 14 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 41 41 N 14 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 41 41 N 14 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 41 N 14 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 42 42 N 14 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 46 46 N 14 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 51 N 14 6520 4737 37 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 55 57 S 6 8167 7798 3098 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 57 60 S 6 8518 8152 3452 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 58 61 S 6 8632 8270 3570 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 58 61 S 6 8632 8270 3570 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 58 60 S 6 8518 8152 3452 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 57 58 S 6 8286 7916 3216 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 56 56 S 6 8049 7509 2809 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 53 53 S 6 7565 5942 1242 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 50 50 S 6 5974 4700 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 48 48 S 6 4755 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 46 46 S 6 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 46 46 S 6 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 45 45 E 3 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 E 3 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 E 3 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 E 3 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 43 43 E 3 2618 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 42 42 E 3 2618 4700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com