Detailed Predictions for: Ojai
Launch Altitude (f): 4700
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 11 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
7 AM Thu 29 29 N 8 2667 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 44 45 N 8 4689 4700 0 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 59 61 N 8 8333 7326 2626 Blue 19
10 AM Thu 62 66 SE 5 10178 8931 4231 Blue 24
11 AM Thu 62 67 SE 5 10585 9247 4547 Blue 25
12 Noon Thu 62 67 SE 5 10585 9247 4547 Blue 25
1 PM Thu 60 65 S 8 9620 8611 3911 Blue 23
2 PM Thu 56 60 S 8 8003 7071 2371 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 56 58 S 8 7353 6558 1858 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 53 54 SW 5 6317 5514 814 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 48 48 SW 5 4882 4700 0 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 45 45 SW 5 4689 4700 0 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 41 41 N 4 4306 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 37 37 N 4 2667 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 33 33 N 4 2667 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 36 36 E 6 2667 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 39 39 E 6 3485 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 E 6 4593 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 36 36 W 6 2667 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 38 38 W 6 3065 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 34 34 W 6 2667 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 35 35 N 6 2667 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 33 33 N 6 2667 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 31 31 N 6 2667 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 33 33 E 5 2667 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 48 E 5 4882 4700 0 Blue 6
9 AM Fri 62 64 E 5 9301 8288 3588 Blue 22
10 AM Fri 65 67 S 9 10585 9247 4547 Blue 25
11 AM Fri 65 68 S 9 12215 9561 4861 Blue 26
12 Noon Fri 65 69 S 9 13409 10091 5391 Blue 27
1 PM Fri 63 66 SW 7 10178 8931 4231 Blue 24
2 PM Fri 60 63 SW 7 8981 7962 3262 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 60 61 SW 7 8333 7326 2626 Blue 19
4 PM Fri 57 57 SW 7 7096 6299 1599 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 52 52 SW 7 5791 5013 313 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 49 49 SW 7 5016 4720 20 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 46 46 W 6 4721 4700 0 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 42 42 W 6 4593 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 38 38 W 6 3065 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 41 41 SW 4 4306 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 44 44 SW 4 4657 4700 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 47 47 SW 4 4775 4700 0 Blue 5
1 AM Sat 41 41 NW 5 4306 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 NW 5 4593 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 NW 5 3485 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 40 40 NW 8 3899 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 38 38 NW 8 3065 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 36 36 NW 8 2667 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 37 37 N 7 2667 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 46 N 7 4721 4700 0 Blue 4
9 AM Sat 55 56 N 7 6837 6039 1339 Blue 14
10 AM Sat 57 60 N 8 8003 7071 2371 Blue 18
11 AM Sat 57 60 N 8 8003 7071 2371 Blue 18
12 Noon Sat 57 61 N 8 8333 7326 2626 Blue 19
1 PM Sat 56 59 N 9 7671 6815 2115 Blue 17
2 PM Sat 52 55 N 9 6578 5777 1077 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 52 54 N 9 6317 5514 814 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 50 51 N 13 5526 4878 178 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 46 46 N 13 4721 4700 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 44 44 N 13 4657 4700 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 41 41 N 13 4306 4700 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 37 37 N 13 2667 4700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 34 34 N 13 2667 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 37 37 N 12 2667 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 39 39 N 12 3485 4700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 N 12 4306 4700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 37 37 N 12 2667 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 38 38 N 12 3065 4700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 35 35 N 12 2667 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 36 36 N 9 2667 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 34 34 N 9 2667 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 33 33 N 9 2667 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 34 34 N 9 2667 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 49 N 9 5016 4720 20 Blue 7
9 AM Sun 61 63 N 9 8981 7962 3262 Blue 21
10 AM Sun 64 67 S 3 10585 9247 4547 Blue 25
11 AM Sun 64 68 S 3 12215 9561 4861 Blue 26
12 Noon Sun 64 69 S 3 13409 10091 5391 Blue 27
1 PM Sun 62 66 S 3 10178 8931 4231 Blue 24
2 PM Sun 59 62 S 3 8658 7633 2933 Blue 20
3 PM Sun 59 61 S 3 8333 7326 2626 Blue 19
4 PM Sun 56 57 SE 3 7096 6299 1599 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 52 52 SE 3 5791 5013 313 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 49 49 SE 3 5016 4720 20 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 46 46 SE 3 4721 4700 0 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 43 43 SE 3 4625 4700 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 40 40 SE 3 3899 4700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 42 42 NE 9 4593 4700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 45 45 NE 9 4689 4700 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 47 47 NE 9 4775 4700 0 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 42 42 NE 9 4593 4700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 43 43 NE 9 4625 4700 0 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 40 40 NE 9 3899 4700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 41 41 NE 8 4306 4700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 39 39 NE 8 3485 4700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 38 38 NE 8 3065 4700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 39 39 NE 8 3485 4700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 57 NE 8 7096 6299 1599 Blue 15
9 AM Mon 72 74 NE 8 13733 13518 8818 Blue 32
10 AM Mon 75 79 E 6 15586 14040 9340 Blue 37
11 AM Mon 75 80 E 6 16072 14489 9789 Blue 38
12 Noon Mon 75 80 E 6 16072 14489 9789 Blue 38
1 PM Mon 73 78 E 6 15091 13776 9076 Blue 36
2 PM Mon 69 73 E 6 13668 13454 8754 Blue 31
3 PM Mon 69 71 E 6 13539 11322 6622 Blue 29
4 PM Mon 65 66 SE 5 10178 8931 4231 Blue 24
5 PM Mon 60 60 SE 5 8003 7071 2371 Blue 18
6 PM Mon 57 57 SE 5 7096 6299 1599 Blue 15
7 PM Mon 53 53 SE 5 6055 5250 550 Blue 11
8 PM Mon 49 49 SE 5 5016 4720 20 Blue 7
9 PM Mon 45 45 SE 5 4689 4700 0 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 48 48 SE 6 4882 4700 0 Blue 6
11 PM Mon 51 51 SE 6 5526 4878 178 Blue 9
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 SE 6 6317 5514 814 Blue 12
1 AM Tue 48 48 SE 6 4882 4700 0 Blue 6
2 AM Tue 50 50 SE 6 5260 4773 73 Blue 8
3 AM Tue 46 46 SE 6 4721 4700 0 Blue 4
4 AM Tue 47 47 E 11 4775 4700 0 Blue 5
5 AM Tue 45 45 E 11 4689 4700 0 Blue 3
6 AM Tue 43 43 E 11 4625 4700 0 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 44 44 E 11 4657 4700 0 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 58 59 E 11 7671 6815 2115 Blue 17
9 AM Tue 72 74 E 11 13733 13518 8818 Blue 32
10 AM Tue 75 79 SE 5 15586 14040 9340 Blue 37
11 AM Tue 75 80 SE 5 16072 14489 9789 Blue 38
12 Noon Tue 75 80 SE 5 16072 14489 9789 Blue 38
1 PM Tue 73 78 SE 5 15091 13776 9076 Blue 36
2 PM Tue 69 73 SE 5 13668 13454 8754 Blue 31
3 PM Tue 69 71 SE 5 13539 11322 6622 Blue 29
4 PM Tue 65 66 SW 4 10178 8931 4231 Blue 24
5 PM Tue 60 60 SW 4 8003 7071 2371 Blue 18
6 PM Tue 57 57 SW 4 7096 6299 1599 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 53 53 SW 4 6055 5250 550 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 48 48 SW 4 4882 4700 0 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 44 44 SW 4 4657 4700 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 47 47 N 6 4775 4700 0 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 50 50 N 6 5260 4773 73 Blue 8
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 N 6 6317 5514 814 Blue 12
1 AM Wed 47 47 N 6 4775 4700 0 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 49 49 N 6 5016 4720 20 Blue 7
3 AM Wed 45 45 N 6 4689 4700 0 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 46 46 N 8 4721 4700 0 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 44 44 N 8 4657 4700 0 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 42 42 N 8 4593 4700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com