Detailed Predictions for: Malibu - Castro Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 3 SEP 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 71 61 N 2 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 70 60 N 2 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 71 61 N 2 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 77 67 NW 3 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 88 80 NW 3 2310 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 93 87 NW 3 3186 2983 383 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 96 92 SW 7 6695 4087 1487 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 97 94 SW 7 8414 5597 2997 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 100 97 SW 7 10232 8267 5667 Blue 16
2 PM Fri 102 99 S 14 11098 9543 6943 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 101 97 S 14 10232 8267 5667 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 101 95 S 14 9094 6572 3972 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 97 89 S 14 4121 3056 456 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 94 84 S 14 2983 2600 0 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 85 75 S 14 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 81 71 NW 7 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 80 70 NW 7 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 81 71 NW 7 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 81 71 W 7 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 81 71 W 7 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 77 67 W 7 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 75 65 N 3 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 75 65 N 3 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 75 65 N 3 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 73 63 NE 3 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 70 60 NE 3 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 71 61 NE 3 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 77 67 NE 8 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 88 80 NE 8 2310 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 93 87 NE 8 3186 2983 383 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 96 92 W 2 6695 4087 1487 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 97 94 W 2 8414 5597 2997 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 100 97 W 2 10232 8267 5667 Blue 16
2 PM Sat 102 99 S 15 11098 9543 6943 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 101 97 S 15 10232 8267 5667 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 101 95 S 15 9094 6572 3972 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 96 88 S 15 3445 3018 418 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 91 81 S 15 2403 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 78 68 S 15 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 72 62 S 15 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 71 61 S 15 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 73 63 S 15 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 73 63 NW 3 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 72 62 NW 3 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 67 57 NW 3 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 65 55 NW 3 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 65 55 NW 3 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 64 54 NW 3 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 61 51 N 2 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 57 47 N 2 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 59 49 N 2 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 64 54 N 2 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 76 68 N 2 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 81 75 N 2 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 84 80 S 15 2310 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 86 83 S 15 2948 2600 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 88 85 S 15 3019 2861 261 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 90 87 S 15 3186 2983 383 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 90 86 S 15 3057 2947 347 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 90 84 S 15 2983 2600 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 86 78 S 15 2125 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 82 72 S 15 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 72 62 S 15 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 68 58 S 15 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 67 57 S 15 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 68 58 S 15 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 68 58 E 6 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 68 58 E 6 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 64 54 E 6 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 62 52 E 6 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 62 52 E 6 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 52 E 6 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 59 49 NE 5 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 46 NE 5 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 48 NE 5 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 62 52 NE 5 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 72 63 NE 5 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 76 69 NE 5 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 79 75 S 6 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 80 77 S 6 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 82 79 S 6 2218 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 84 81 S 6 2403 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 83 79 S 6 2218 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 83 77 S 6 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 80 72 S 6 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 77 67 S 6 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 68 58 S 6 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 64 54 S 6 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 64 54 S 6 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 65 55 S 6 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 65 55 E 5 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 64 54 E 5 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 61 51 E 5 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 59 49 E 5 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 60 50 E 5 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 49 E 5 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 57 47 E 3 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 44 E 3 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 46 E 3 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 60 50 E 3 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 70 60 E 3 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 74 65 E 3 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 76 72 S 13 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 77 74 S 13 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 79 76 S 13 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 81 78 S 13 2125 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 81 77 S 13 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 80 74 S 13 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 77 69 S 13 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 74 64 S 13 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 66 56 S 13 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 63 53 S 13 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 62 52 S 13 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 63 53 S 13 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 63 53 E 3 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 63 53 E 3 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 49 E 3 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 48 E 3 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 48 E 3 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 58 48 E 3 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 46 SE 5 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 43 SE 5 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 44 SE 5 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 48 SE 5 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 67 57 SE 5 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 71 62 SE 5 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 73 69 W 7 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 74 71 W 7 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 76 73 W 7 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 77 74 W 7 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 77 73 W 7 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 77 71 W 7 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 74 66 W 7 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 72 62 W 7 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 65 55 W 7 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 62 52 W 7 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 61 51 W 7 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 62 52 W 7 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 52 E 3 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 51 E 3 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 49 E 3 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 47 E 3 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 48 E 3 2067 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 47 E 3 2067 2600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com