Detailed Predictions for: Malibu - Castro Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 1200Z 7 SEP 08

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sun 74 64 W 3 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 73 63 W 3 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 72 62 W 3 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 71 61 W 3 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 71 61 W 3 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 72 62 W 0 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 72 62 W 0 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 74 64 W 0 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 78 68 W 0 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 84 76 W 0 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 90 84 W 0 2271 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 92 87 SW 8 2446 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 93 90 SW 8 3518 2600 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 93 90 SW 8 3518 2600 0 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 93 90 SW 8 3518 2600 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 93 88 SW 8 2630 2600 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 96 89 SW 8 2925 2600 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 95 87 W 6 2446 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 91 81 W 6 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 85 75 W 6 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 81 71 W 6 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 79 69 W 6 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 78 68 W 6 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 74 64 SSW 4 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 73 63 SSW 4 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 70 60 SSW 4 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 68 58 SSW 4 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 67 57 SSW 4 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 67 57 SSW 4 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 68 58 S 6 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 68 58 S 6 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 69 59 S 6 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 73 63 S 6 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 78 69 S 6 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 82 75 S 6 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 84 79 S 6 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 85 82 S 6 2169 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 85 82 S 6 2169 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 85 82 S 6 2169 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 85 80 S 6 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 87 80 S 6 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 87 79 SSW 5 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 84 74 SSW 5 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 79 69 SSW 5 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 76 66 SSW 5 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 75 65 SSW 5 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 74 64 SSW 5 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 72 62 ESE 4 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 71 61 ESE 4 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 69 59 ESE 4 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 67 57 ESE 4 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 66 56 ESE 4 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 66 56 ESE 4 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 67 57 ESE 4 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 67 57 ESE 4 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 68 58 ESE 4 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 71 61 ESE 4 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 74 65 ESE 4 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 78 71 ESE 4 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 79 74 SE 6 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 79 75 SE 6 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 80 76 SE 6 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 80 76 SE 6 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 80 75 SE 6 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 81 74 SE 6 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 81 72 WSW 4 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 79 69 WSW 4 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 75 65 WSW 4 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 72 62 WSW 4 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 71 61 WSW 4 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 70 60 WSW 4 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 68 58 S 2 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 68 58 S 2 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 66 56 S 2 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 64 54 S 2 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 64 54 S 2 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 64 54 S 2 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 65 55 ESE 5 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 65 55 ESE 5 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 66 56 ESE 5 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 69 59 ESE 5 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 73 64 ESE 5 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 77 70 ESE 5 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 79 74 SSE 6 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 79 75 SSE 6 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 79 75 SSE 6 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 80 76 SSE 6 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 80 75 SSE 6 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 81 74 SSE 6 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 81 72 WSW 5 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 79 69 WSW 5 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 74 64 WSW 5 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 72 62 WSW 5 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 71 61 WSW 5 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 70 60 WSW 5 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 68 58 ESE 3 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 67 57 ESE 3 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 65 55 ESE 3 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 64 54 ESE 3 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 63 53 ESE 3 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 63 53 ESE 3 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 64 54 ESE 4 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 64 54 ESE 4 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 65 55 ESE 4 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 69 59 ESE 4 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 73 64 ESE 4 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 78 71 ESE 4 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 79 74 SSE 6 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 80 76 SSE 6 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 80 76 SSE 6 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 81 77 SSE 6 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 81 76 SSE 6 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 82 75 SSE 6 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 82 73 WSW 6 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 79 69 WSW 6 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 75 65 WSW 6 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 73 63 WSW 6 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 72 62 WSW 6 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 71 61 WSW 6 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 69 59 NW 8 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 68 58 NW 8 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 66 56 NW 8 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 65 55 NW 8 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 64 54 NW 8 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 64 54 NW 8 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 65 55 ENE 4 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 65 55 ENE 4 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 67 57 ENE 4 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 71 61 ENE 4 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 76 67 ENE 4 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 82 75 ENE 4 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 84 78 SSE 7 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 84 79 SSE 7 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 85 81 SSE 7 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 85 80 SSE 7 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 85 79 SSE 7 2136 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 87 80 SSE 7 2136 2600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the Weather Channel estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com