Detailed Predictions for: Malibu - Castro Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 10 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
7 AM Wed 42 32 NW 15 778 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 36 NW 15 778 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 49 40 NW 15 2748 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 52 45 W 16 4255 3680 1080 White 5
11 AM Wed 54 48 W 16 4916 4790 2190 White 8
12 Noon Wed 57 51 W 16 5562 5326 2726 White 11
1 PM Wed 58 52 W 16 5776 5503 2903 White 12
2 PM Wed 58 51 W 16 5562 5326 2726 White 11
3 PM Wed 57 49 W 16 5132 4972 2372 White 9
4 PM Wed 55 46 N 15 4471 4136 1536 White 6
5 PM Wed 48 38 N 15 1150 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 44 34 N 15 778 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 43 33 N 15 778 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 42 32 N 15 778 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 41 31 N 15 778 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 42 32 N 18 778 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 40 30 N 18 778 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 38 28 N 18 778 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 38 28 NE 15 778 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 38 28 NE 15 778 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 38 28 NE 15 778 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 37 27 N 18 778 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 37 27 N 18 778 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 37 27 N 18 778 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 30 N 18 778 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 46 37 N 18 778 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 52 44 N 18 4038 3216 616 White 4
10 AM Thu 57 51 NE 16 5562 5326 2726 White 11
11 AM Thu 60 55 NE 16 6416 6032 3432 White 15
12 Noon Thu 65 60 NE 16 7466 7466 4866 White 20
1 PM Thu 66 61 N 6 7674 7674 5074 White 21
2 PM Thu 67 61 N 6 7674 7674 5074 White 21
3 PM Thu 65 57 N 6 6836 6836 4236 White 17
4 PM Thu 63 54 N 6 6204 5856 3256 White 14
5 PM Thu 54 44 N 6 4038 3216 616 White 4
6 PM Thu 48 38 N 6 1150 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 47 37 N 6 778 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 46 36 N 6 778 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 45 35 N 6 778 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 46 36 E 4 778 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 34 E 4 778 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 41 31 E 4 778 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 42 32 E 4 778 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 42 32 E 4 778 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 41 31 E 4 778 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 40 30 S 4 778 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 40 30 S 4 778 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 40 30 S 4 778 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 32 S 4 778 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 49 40 S 4 2748 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 46 S 4 4471 4136 1536 White 6
10 AM Fri 59 52 W 10 5776 5503 2903 White 12
11 AM Fri 62 56 W 10 6626 6626 4026 White 16
12 Noon Fri 66 61 W 10 7674 7674 5074 White 21
1 PM Fri 67 61 W 10 7674 7674 5074 White 21
2 PM Fri 68 61 W 10 7674 7674 5074 White 21
3 PM Fri 66 58 W 10 7046 7046 4446 White 18
4 PM Fri 65 55 W 10 6416 6032 3432 White 15
5 PM Fri 58 48 W 10 4916 4790 2190 White 8
6 PM Fri 54 44 W 10 4038 3216 616 White 4
7 PM Fri 53 43 W 10 3819 2742 142 White 3
8 PM Fri 52 42 W 10 3600 2600 0 White 2
9 PM Fri 51 41 W 10 3229 2600 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 52 42 N 4 3600 2600 0 White 2
11 PM Fri 50 40 N 4 2748 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 48 38 N 4 1150 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 49 39 N 4 2015 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 39 N 4 2015 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 48 38 N 4 1150 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 47 37 N 4 778 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 47 37 N 4 778 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 37 N 4 778 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 39 N 4 2015 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 43 N 4 3819 2742 142 White 3
9 AM Sat 56 47 N 4 4692 4604 2004 White 7
10 AM Sat 59 52 W 9 5776 5503 2903 White 12
11 AM Sat 61 55 W 9 6416 6032 3432 White 15
12 Noon Sat 63 57 W 9 6836 6836 4236 White 17
1 PM Sat 64 58 W 9 7046 7046 4446 White 18
2 PM Sat 65 58 W 9 7046 7046 4446 White 18
3 PM Sat 63 55 W 9 6416 6032 3432 White 15
4 PM Sat 62 52 W 9 5776 5503 2903 White 12
5 PM Sat 55 45 W 9 4255 3680 1080 White 5
6 PM Sat 51 41 W 9 3229 2600 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 51 41 W 9 3229 2600 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 49 39 W 9 2015 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 49 39 W 9 2015 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 40 NE 10 2748 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 38 NE 10 1150 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 36 NE 10 778 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 47 37 NE 10 778 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 36 NE 10 778 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 36 NE 10 778 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 45 35 NE 11 778 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 35 NE 11 778 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 35 NE 11 778 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 37 NE 11 778 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 44 NE 11 4038 3216 616 White 4
9 AM Sun 58 50 NE 11 5347 5149 2549 White 10
10 AM Sun 62 55 N 6 6416 6032 3432 White 15
11 AM Sun 64 58 N 6 7046 7046 4446 White 18
12 Noon Sun 68 63 N 6 8091 8091 5491 White 23
1 PM Sun 69 63 N 6 8091 8091 5491 White 23
2 PM Sun 69 62 N 6 7883 7883 5283 White 22
3 PM Sun 68 60 N 6 7466 7466 4866 White 20
4 PM Sun 67 58 N 6 7046 7046 4446 White 18
5 PM Sun 59 49 N 6 5132 4972 2372 White 9
6 PM Sun 54 44 N 6 4038 3216 616 White 4
7 PM Sun 54 44 N 6 4038 3216 616 White 4
8 PM Sun 52 42 N 6 3600 2600 0 White 2
9 PM Sun 52 42 N 6 3600 2600 0 White 2
10 PM Sun 52 42 NE 12 3600 2600 0 White 2
11 PM Sun 51 41 NE 12 3229 2600 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 49 39 NE 12 2015 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 39 NE 12 2015 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 39 NE 12 2015 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 38 NE 12 1150 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 37 NE 15 778 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 37 NE 15 778 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 37 NE 15 778 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 40 NE 15 2748 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 48 NE 15 4916 4790 2190 White 8
9 AM Mon 63 55 NE 15 6416 6032 3432 White 15
10 AM Mon 67 61 NW 2 7674 7674 5074 White 21
11 AM Mon 71 66 NW 2 8715 8715 6115 White 26
12 Noon Mon 75 70 NW 2 9547 9547 6947 White 30
1 PM Mon 76 71 NW 2 9755 9755 7155 White 31
2 PM Mon 77 71 NW 2 9755 9755 7155 White 31
3 PM Mon 75 67 NW 2 8922 8922 6322 White 27
4 PM Mon 73 64 NW 2 8300 8300 5700 White 24
5 PM Mon 63 53 NW 2 5990 5680 3080 White 13
6 PM Mon 57 47 NW 2 4692 4604 2004 White 7
7 PM Mon 56 46 NW 2 4471 4136 1536 White 6
8 PM Mon 54 44 NW 2 4038 3216 616 White 4
9 PM Mon 53 43 NW 2 3819 2742 142 White 3
10 PM Mon 54 44 E 5 4038 3216 616 White 4
11 PM Mon 52 42 E 5 3600 2600 0 White 2
12 Midnight Tue 49 39 E 5 2015 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 40 E 5 2748 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 40 E 5 2748 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 39 E 5 2015 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 38 E 5 1150 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 38 E 5 1150 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 38 E 5 1150 2600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com