Detailed Predictions for: Malibu - Castro Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 18 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Thu 67 57 N 2 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 67 57 N 2 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 67 57 N 2 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 68 58 N 2 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 71 62 N 2 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 74 67 N 2 3845 2600 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 76 70 SW 4 7576 3806 1206 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 78 73 SW 4 7935 7520 4920 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 78 74 SW 4 8023 7768 5168 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 79 74 W 8 8023 7768 5168 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 80 74 W 8 8023 7768 5168 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 80 72 W 8 7858 6352 3752 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 77 68 W 7 4669 2600 0 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 74 64 W 7 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 66 56 W 7 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 67 57 N 6 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 66 56 N 6 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 65 55 N 6 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 65 55 NE 14 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 65 55 NE 14 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 52 NE 14 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 51 NE 20 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 47 NE 20 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 46 NE 20 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 46 NE 24 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 57 47 NE 24 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 46 NE 24 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 58 48 NE 28 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 62 53 NE 28 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 68 61 NE 28 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 71 65 NE 15 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 75 70 NE 15 7576 3806 1206 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 75 71 NE 15 7781 4612 2012 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 77 72 NE 4 7858 6352 3752 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 79 73 NE 4 7935 7520 4920 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 79 71 NE 4 7781 4612 2012 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 76 67 N 6 3845 2600 0 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 73 63 N 6 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 65 55 N 6 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 66 56 N 6 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 65 55 N 6 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 64 54 N 6 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 64 54 W 5 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 54 W 5 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 61 51 W 5 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 50 W 5 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 46 W 5 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 45 W 5 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 45 SE 4 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 46 SE 4 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 45 SE 4 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 47 SE 4 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 53 SE 4 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 68 61 SE 4 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 71 65 SW 3 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 75 70 SW 3 7576 3806 1206 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 76 72 SW 3 7858 6352 3752 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 78 73 SW 3 7935 7520 4920 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 80 74 SW 3 8023 7768 5168 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 80 72 SW 3 7858 6352 3752 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 77 68 SW 3 4669 2600 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 74 64 SW 3 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 66 56 SW 3 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 66 56 SW 3 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 65 55 SW 3 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 64 54 SW 3 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 65 55 N 4 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 64 54 N 4 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 61 51 N 4 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 60 50 N 4 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 46 N 4 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 45 N 4 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 45 N 2 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 46 N 2 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 55 45 N 2 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 47 N 2 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 62 53 N 2 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 67 60 N 2 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 71 65 SW 14 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 74 69 SW 14 6603 2934 334 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 75 70 SW 14 7576 3806 1206 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 77 72 SW 14 7858 6352 3752 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 79 73 SW 14 7935 7520 4920 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 79 71 SW 14 7781 4612 2012 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 76 67 SW 14 3845 2600 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 73 63 SW 14 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 65 55 SW 14 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 65 55 SW 14 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 64 54 SW 14 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 63 53 SW 14 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 64 54 W 3 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 63 53 W 3 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 60 50 W 3 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 59 49 W 3 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 45 W 3 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 44 W 3 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 44 S 3 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 44 S 3 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 44 S 3 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 46 S 3 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 50 S 3 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 64 56 S 3 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 67 60 SW 5 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 70 63 SW 5 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 70 64 SW 5 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 72 65 SW 5 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 74 66 SW 5 2951 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 73 64 SW 5 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 71 61 SW 5 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 68 58 SW 5 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 60 50 SW 5 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 60 50 SW 5 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 59 49 SW 5 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 58 48 SW 5 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 59 49 E 4 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 48 E 4 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 45 E 4 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 44 E 4 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 40 E 4 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 39 E 4 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 39 E 2 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 40 E 2 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 40 E 2 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 41 E 2 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 46 E 2 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 51 E 2 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 62 55 NW 12 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 65 59 NW 12 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 65 60 NW 12 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 67 61 NW 12 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 69 62 NW 12 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 69 61 NW 12 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 66 57 NW 12 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 64 54 NW 12 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 57 47 NW 12 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 57 47 NW 12 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 57 47 NW 12 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 46 NW 12 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 46 N 19 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 46 N 19 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 53 43 N 19 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 43 N 19 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 39 N 19 2149 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 38 N 19 2149 2600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com