Detailed Predictions for: Malibu - Castro Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 4 FEB 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
4 AM Sat 61 51 NE 29 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 61 51 NE 29 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 61 51 NE 29 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 62 52 NE 29 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 63 53 NE 29 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 64 55 NE 29 1965 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 65 57 NE 23 3916 2600 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 65 57 NE 23 3916 2600 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 65 58 NE 23 4927 2600 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 65 57 E 12 3916 2600 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 65 57 E 12 3916 2600 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 65 56 E 12 2752 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 65 55 E 7 1965 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 65 55 E 7 1965 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 64 54 E 7 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 63 53 NE 15 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 63 53 NE 15 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 62 52 NE 15 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 62 52 NE 25 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 61 51 NE 25 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 61 51 NE 25 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 60 50 NE 25 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 59 49 NE 25 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 58 48 NE 25 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 58 48 NE 23 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 58 48 NE 23 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 58 48 NE 23 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 58 48 NE 23 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 60 50 NE 23 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 61 51 NE 23 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 63 54 NE 18 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 64 56 NE 18 2752 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 65 57 NE 18 3916 2600 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 66 58 NE 13 4927 2600 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 67 58 NE 13 4927 2600 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 67 58 NE 13 4927 2600 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 67 57 E 5 3916 2600 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 65 55 E 5 1965 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 64 54 E 5 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 63 53 E 5 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 62 52 E 5 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 61 51 E 5 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 60 50 E 8 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 60 50 E 8 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 50 E 8 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 59 49 E 8 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 59 49 E 8 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 49 E 8 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 49 E 10 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 58 48 E 10 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 58 48 E 10 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 59 49 E 10 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 60 50 E 10 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 62 52 E 10 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 63 54 E 6 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 64 56 E 6 2752 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 65 57 E 6 3916 2600 0 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 65 57 E 6 3916 2600 0 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 66 57 E 6 3916 2600 0 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 66 56 E 6 2752 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 65 55 SE 5 1965 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 64 54 SE 5 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 63 53 SE 5 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 62 52 SE 5 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 61 51 SE 5 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 60 50 SE 5 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 60 50 E 6 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 60 50 E 6 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 59 49 E 6 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 59 49 E 6 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 59 49 E 6 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 58 48 E 6 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 48 E 6 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 57 47 E 6 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 46 E 6 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 45 E 6 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 44 E 6 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 43 E 6 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 53 43 SE 9 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 53 43 SE 9 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 53 43 SE 9 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 53 43 SE 9 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 53 43 SE 9 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 52 42 SE 9 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 51 41 S 5 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 51 41 S 5 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 50 40 S 5 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 50 40 S 5 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 50 40 S 5 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 50 40 S 5 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 49 39 NW 9 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 49 39 NW 9 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 39 NW 9 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 39 NW 9 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 39 NW 9 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 39 NW 9 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 39 NE 16 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 39 NE 16 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 39 NE 16 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 39 NE 16 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 40 NE 16 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 42 NE 16 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 53 44 N 13 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 54 46 N 13 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 55 47 N 13 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 56 48 N 13 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 56 47 N 13 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 56 47 N 13 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 56 46 N 13 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 55 45 N 13 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 55 45 N 13 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 56 46 N 13 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 56 46 N 13 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 46 N 13 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 46 NE 15 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 46 NE 15 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 46 NE 15 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 46 NE 15 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 46 NE 15 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 46 NE 15 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 46 NE 18 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 46 NE 18 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 46 NE 18 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 46 NE 18 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 47 NE 18 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 50 NE 18 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 60 52 NW 8 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 61 54 NW 8 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 61 54 NW 8 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 62 55 NW 8 1965 2600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 62 54 NW 8 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 62 53 NW 8 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 62 52 NW 8 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 61 51 NW 8 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 60 50 NW 8 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 58 48 NW 8 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 58 48 NW 8 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 58 48 NW 8 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 57 47 NE 15 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 47 NE 15 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 57 47 NE 15 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 46 NE 15 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 45 NE 15 1909 2600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 44 NE 15 1909 2600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com