Detailed Predictions for: Horseshoe
Launch Altitude (f): 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 11 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
7 AM Thu 16 16 NW 7 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 26 27 NW 7 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 35 37 NW 7 6353 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 40 43 N 2 8144 9085 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 43 47 N 2 9500 9085 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 44 49 N 2 10480 9146 61 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 46 50 S 3 11630 9477 392 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 46 49 S 3 10480 9146 61 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 44 46 S 3 9166 9085 0 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 42 43 S 4 8144 9085 0 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 39 39 S 4 6897 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 36 36 S 4 6079 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 35 35 W 6 5803 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 30 30 W 6 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 29 29 W 6 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 27 27 W 6 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 24 24 W 6 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 24 24 W 6 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 23 23 W 8 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 22 22 W 8 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 21 21 W 8 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 20 20 W 8 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 21 21 W 8 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 21 21 W 8 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 24 24 W 7 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 31 31 W 7 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 39 40 W 7 7167 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 43 45 SW 5 8829 9085 0 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 45 47 SW 5 9500 9085 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 46 49 SW 5 10480 9146 61 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 48 50 S 8 11630 9477 392 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 48 50 S 8 11630 9477 392 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 46 47 S 8 9500 9085 0 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 44 44 SW 13 8488 9085 0 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 40 40 SW 13 7167 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 37 37 SW 13 6353 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 35 35 SW 13 5803 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 30 30 SW 13 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 29 29 SW 13 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 28 28 W 15 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 25 25 W 15 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 24 24 W 15 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 23 23 W 15 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 22 22 W 15 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 21 21 W 15 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 20 20 W 17 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 20 20 W 17 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 21 21 W 17 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 23 23 W 17 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 29 29 W 17 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 34 35 W 17 5803 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 37 38 NW 11 6626 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 39 41 NW 11 7445 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 40 42 NW 11 7796 9085 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 41 43 NW 11 8144 9085 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sat 41 42 NW 11 7796 9085 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 39 39 NW 11 6897 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 38 38 N 9 6626 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 35 35 N 9 5803 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 32 32 N 9 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 31 31 N 9 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 26 26 N 9 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 25 25 N 9 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 24 24 NW 9 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 22 22 NW 9 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 21 21 NW 9 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 20 20 NW 9 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 19 19 NW 9 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 19 19 NW 9 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 18 18 NW 8 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 18 18 NW 8 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 19 19 NW 8 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 22 22 NW 8 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 30 31 NW 8 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 39 41 NW 8 7445 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 43 46 N 9 9166 9085 0 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 46 50 N 9 11630 9477 392 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 47 52 N 9 13473 10437 1352 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 49 53 N 9 13540 10866 1781 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 49 52 N 9 13473 10437 1352 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 47 49 N 9 10480 9146 61 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 45 46 N 13 9166 9085 0 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 41 41 N 13 7445 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 38 38 N 13 6626 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 37 37 N 13 6353 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 32 32 N 13 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 31 31 N 13 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 29 29 NW 11 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 26 26 NW 11 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 25 25 NW 11 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 24 24 NW 11 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 23 23 NW 11 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 23 23 NW 11 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 22 22 NW 10 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 22 22 NW 10 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 23 23 NW 10 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 26 26 NW 10 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 35 36 NW 10 6079 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 45 47 NW 10 9500 9085 0 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 50 54 N 6 13607 13393 4308 Blue 13
11 AM Mon 53 58 N 6 14305 13660 4575 Blue 17
12 Noon Mon 54 59 N 6 14781 13727 4642 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 56 61 N 6 15789 14193 5108 Blue 20
2 PM Mon 56 59 N 6 14781 13727 4642 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 54 56 N 6 13742 13526 4441 Blue 15
4 PM Mon 51 52 N 4 13473 10437 1352 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 48 48 N 4 10023 9085 0 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 44 44 N 4 8488 9085 0 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 42 42 N 4 7796 9085 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 37 37 N 4 6353 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 35 35 N 4 5803 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 34 34 SW 5 5525 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 30 30 SW 5 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 29 29 SW 5 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 28 28 SW 5 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 27 27 SW 5 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 27 27 SW 5 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 25 25 SW 4 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 26 26 SW 4 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 26 26 SW 4 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 30 30 SW 4 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 39 40 SW 4 7167 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 49 51 SW 4 13406 9970 885 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 54 57 S 7 13830 13593 4508 Blue 16
11 AM Tue 57 61 S 7 15789 14193 5108 Blue 20
12 Noon Tue 58 63 S 7 17564 15124 6039 White 22
1 PM Tue 60 64 S 7 17771 15642 6557 White 23
2 PM Tue 60 63 S 7 17564 15124 6039 White 22
3 PM Tue 58 60 S 7 15263 13794 4709 Blue 19
4 PM Tue 55 55 S 11 13674 13459 4374 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 51 51 S 11 13406 9970 885 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 47 47 S 11 9500 9085 0 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 45 45 S 11 8829 9085 0 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 38 38 S 11 6626 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 37 37 S 11 6353 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 35 35 SW 13 5803 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 31 31 SW 13 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 30 30 SW 13 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 29 29 SW 13 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 28 28 SW 13 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 27 27 SW 13 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 26 26 SW 10 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 26 26 SW 10 5033 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 27 27 SW 10 5033 9085 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com