Detailed Predictions for: Horseshoe
Launch Altitude (f): 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 3 SEP 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 50 50 W 6 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 50 W 6 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 53 W 6 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 63 63 W 2 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 72 74 W 2 11981 10943 1858 Blue 7
10 AM Fri 77 81 W 2 14789 13212 4127 Blue 14
11 AM Fri 81 86 SE 8 17060 15605 6520 Blue 19
12 Noon Fri 85 92 SE 8 22247 18329 9244 White 24
1 PM Fri 86 93 SE 8 22445 18852 9767 White 25
2 PM Fri 87 93 SE 10 22445 18852 9767 White 25
3 PM Fri 87 92 SE 10 22247 18329 9244 White 24
4 PM Fri 86 89 SE 10 18525 16925 7840 Blue 22
5 PM Fri 84 86 SE 12 17060 15605 6520 Blue 19
6 PM Fri 81 81 SE 12 14789 13212 4127 Blue 14
7 PM Fri 75 75 SE 12 12308 11277 2192 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 71 71 SW 7 10981 9263 178 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 68 68 SW 7 9300 9085 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 65 65 SW 7 6712 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 62 62 W 7 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 60 60 W 7 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 58 58 W 7 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 56 56 W 7 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 55 W 7 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 53 W 7 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 W 10 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 52 W 10 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 55 W 10 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 65 65 W 6 6712 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 73 75 W 6 12308 11277 2192 Blue 8
10 AM Sat 78 82 W 6 15265 13697 4612 Blue 15
11 AM Sat 83 88 SE 6 17980 16494 7409 Blue 21
12 Noon Sat 86 92 SE 6 22247 18329 9244 White 24
1 PM Sat 88 95 SE 6 22840 21017 11932 White 27
2 PM Sat 88 94 S 10 22643 19377 10292 White 26
3 PM Sat 88 93 S 10 22445 18852 9767 White 25
4 PM Sat 87 90 S 10 19052 17347 8262 Blue 22
5 PM Sat 85 87 W 12 17486 16054 6969 Blue 20
6 PM Sat 81 81 W 12 14789 13212 4127 Blue 14
7 PM Sat 76 76 W 12 12632 11607 2522 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 71 71 W 12 10981 9263 178 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 68 68 W 12 9300 9085 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 64 64 W 12 5584 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 61 61 W 14 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 59 59 W 14 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 57 W 14 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 55 55 W 14 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 54 W 14 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 52 W 14 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 50 W 14 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 50 W 14 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 54 W 14 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 63 63 W 14 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 71 73 W 14 11651 10606 1521 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 76 79 W 14 13800 12579 3494 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 80 85 W 5 16626 15146 6061 Blue 18
12 Noon Sun 84 91 W 5 22049 17788 8703 White 23
1 PM Sun 85 92 W 5 22247 18329 9244 White 24
2 PM Sun 86 92 W 5 22247 18329 9244 White 24
3 PM Sun 85 90 W 5 19052 17347 8262 Blue 22
4 PM Sun 84 87 W 5 17486 16054 6969 Blue 20
5 PM Sun 83 85 W 15 16626 15146 6061 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 78 78 W 15 13284 12258 3173 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 73 73 W 15 11651 10606 1521 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 68 68 W 15 9300 9085 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 64 64 W 15 5584 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 61 61 W 15 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 58 58 NW 7 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 NW 7 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 53 NW 7 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 51 NW 7 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 50 NW 7 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 NW 7 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 N 7 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 N 7 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 49 49 N 7 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 57 N 7 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 63 65 N 7 6712 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 67 70 N 7 10641 9085 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 71 76 E 5 12632 11607 2522 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 74 80 E 5 14301 12897 3812 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 75 82 E 5 15265 13697 4612 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 75 81 E 5 14789 13212 4127 Blue 14
3 PM Mon 75 80 E 5 14301 12897 3812 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 74 77 E 5 12953 11934 2849 Blue 10
5 PM Mon 73 75 SE 6 12308 11277 2192 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 69 69 SE 6 9925 9085 0 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 65 65 SE 6 6712 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 61 61 SE 6 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 57 57 SE 6 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 55 SE 6 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 52 52 SW 3 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 SW 3 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 49 49 SW 3 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 SW 3 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 46 SW 3 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 44 44 SW 3 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 42 42 W 6 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 43 W 6 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 W 6 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 54 W 6 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 61 63 W 6 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 65 68 W 6 9300 9085 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 69 74 S 7 11981 10943 1858 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 72 78 S 7 13284 12258 3173 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 73 79 S 7 13800 12579 3494 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 74 80 S 7 14301 12897 3812 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 73 78 S 7 13284 12258 3173 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 73 76 S 7 12632 11607 2522 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 71 72 S 9 11318 9877 792 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 68 68 S 9 9300 9085 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 63 63 S 9 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 60 60 S 9 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 56 S 9 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 54 S 9 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 51 51 W 8 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 W 8 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 48 W 8 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 46 46 W 8 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 45 45 W 8 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 W 8 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 42 42 W 8 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 42 42 W 8 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 W 8 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 52 W 8 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 58 W 8 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 61 64 W 8 5584 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 64 66 S 9 7709 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 67 70 S 9 10641 9085 0 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 68 71 S 9 10981 9263 178 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 68 71 S 9 10981 9263 178 Blue 4
3 PM Wed 68 70 S 9 10641 9085 0 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 67 69 S 9 9925 9085 0 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 66 67 SW 12 8613 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 63 63 SW 12 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 59 59 SW 12 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 55 55 SW 12 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 52 52 SW 12 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 49 49 SW 12 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 47 47 W 8 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 45 45 W 8 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 44 44 W 8 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 42 42 W 8 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 41 41 W 8 4990 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 39 39 W 8 4990 9085 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com