Detailed Predictions for: Horseshoe
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.472708, -118.115092, 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 25 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Thu 39 39 NW 18 23 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 38 38 NW 17 21 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 38 38 NW 14 18 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 37 37 NW 13 17 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 37 37 NW 12 14 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 36 36 NW 10 12 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 37 37 NW 10 10 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 37 37 NW 10 11 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 40 41 NNW 9 11 7438 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 43 46 NNW 9 10 9763 9085 0 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 46 51 NNW 6 9 11962 10424 1339 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 48 54 N 5 9 14302 11935 2850 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 50 56 NNW 6 10 15500 13522 4437 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 51 57 NW 8 11 16062 14157 5072 Blue 14
2 PM Thu 51 56 NNW 9 12 15500 13522 4437 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 52 56 WNW 10 12 15500 13522 4437 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 52 54 WNW 11 13 14302 11935 2850 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 51 52 WNW 13 16 12856 11097 2012 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 50 50 NW 16 18 11784 10135 1050 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 47 47 NW 17 18 10162 9085 0 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 43 43 WNW 18 21 8119 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 42 42 WNW 18 24 7780 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 40 40 WNW 17 21 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 40 40 WNW 13 18 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 39 39 WNW 14 18 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 39 39 WNW 14 18 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 37 37 WNW 14 18 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 37 37 WNW 14 17 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 37 37 WNW 13 17 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 35 35 WNW 12 16 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 37 37 NW 13 18 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 37 37 NW 13 19 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 39 40 NW 13 19 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 41 43 NNW 18 23 8119 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 44 47 NNW 20 28 10162 9085 0 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 46 48 NNW 23 33 10453 9248 163 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 47 50 NW 25 35 11784 10135 1050 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 47 50 NW 27 36 11784 10135 1050 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 47 49 WNW 29 36 11193 9726 641 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 47 49 WNW 33 39 11193 9726 641 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 46 47 WNW 37 41 10162 9085 0 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 44 45 WNW 39 42 9278 9085 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 41 41 WNW 36 41 7438 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 39 39 WNW 32 40 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 36 36 WNW 27 39 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 35 35 WNW 26 39 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 34 34 WNW 27 40 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 33 33 WNW 27 40 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 32 32 WNW 27 40 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 32 32 NW 27 39 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 31 31 NW 26 37 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 30 30 NW 25 35 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 30 30 WNW 23 33 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 30 30 WNW 20 29 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 31 31 WNW 18 26 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 32 32 NW 17 24 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 35 36 NW 16 23 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 39 42 NW 16 24 7780 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 41 46 NNW 17 25 9763 9085 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 44 50 N 17 26 11784 10135 1050 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 46 53 NW 16 24 13659 11758 2673 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 48 55 SW 13 21 14914 12664 3579 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 49 55 S 12 19 14914 12664 3579 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 50 55 S 12 19 14914 12664 3579 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 50 53 S 13 19 13659 11758 2673 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 49 50 S 13 19 11784 10135 1050 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 47 47 SSW 13 19 10162 9085 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 44 44 SW 12 18 8723 9085 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 42 42 WSW 11 18 7780 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 41 41 WSW 11 18 7438 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 40 40 WSW 10 17 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 39 39 WSW 10 17 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 38 38 WSW 10 16 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 37 37 WSW 10 16 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 37 37 WSW 10 14 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 37 37 WSW 9 13 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 36 36 W 9 13 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 37 37 W 8 12 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 38 38 W 8 12 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 W 8 12 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 42 43 W 8 12 8119 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 45 48 WSW 9 13 10453 9248 163 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 47 52 SSW 10 14 12856 11097 2012 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 50 56 S 11 16 15500 13522 4437 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 52 59 S 12 17 16814 15343 6258 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 54 61 S 12 17 17455 16386 7301 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 55 62 S 12 18 17770 16709 7624 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 56 61 S 12 19 17455 16386 7301 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 56 59 S 12 19 16814 15343 6258 Blue 16
5 PM Sun 55 57 S 12 19 16062 14157 5072 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 53 53 S 12 19 13659 11758 2673 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 50 50 SSW 12 18 11784 10135 1050 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 47 47 SSW 12 18 10162 9085 0 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 45 45 SSW 12 18 9278 9085 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 44 44 WSW 11 17 8723 9085 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 43 43 WSW 11 17 8119 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 W 11 17 7780 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 41 41 W 10 16 7438 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 41 41 W 10 16 7438 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 40 40 W 10 16 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 40 40 W 10 14 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 40 40 W 10 14 7116 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 41 41 W 10 13 7438 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 43 43 W 9 12 8119 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 46 W 9 12 9763 9085 0 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 48 51 WSW 9 13 11962 10424 1339 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 51 56 S 9 14 15500 13522 4437 Blue 13
11 AM Mon 54 60 SSE 10 16 17136 15900 6815 Blue 17
12 Noon Mon 56 63 SSE 11 17 18082 17029 7944 Blue 20
1 PM Mon 58 66 SSE 11 18 19196 17967 8882 White 23
2 PM Mon 59 66 SSE 12 19 19196 17967 8882 White 23
3 PM Mon 60 65 S 13 20 18999 17658 8573 White 22
4 PM Mon 59 62 S 14 20 17770 16709 7624 Blue 19
5 PM Mon 58 60 S 14 20 17136 15900 6815 Blue 17
6 PM Mon 55 55 S 14 20 14914 12664 3579 Blue 12
7 PM Mon 52 52 SSW 13 19 12856 11097 2012 Blue 9
8 PM Mon 49 49 SSW 12 19 11193 9726 641 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 47 47 SSW 12 19 10162 9085 0 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 47 47 WSW 11 18 10162 9085 0 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 46 46 WSW 11 18 9763 9085 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 W 11 17 9278 9085 0 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 45 45 W 10 17 9278 9085 0 Blue 2
2 AM Tue 44 44 W 10 16 8723 9085 0 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 43 43 W 10 16 8119 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 43 WNW 9 14 8119 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 43 43 WNW 9 14 8119 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 WNW 8 13 8723 9085 0 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 46 46 W 8 13 9763 9085 0 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 48 49 W 8 13 11193 9726 641 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 51 54 WSW 9 14 14302 11935 2850 Blue 11
10 AM Tue 54 59 S 10 16 16814 15343 6258 Blue 16
11 AM Tue 57 63 SSE 11 17 18082 17029 7944 Blue 20
12 Noon Tue 59 66 SSE 12 18 19196 17967 8882 White 23
1 PM Tue 61 69 S 12 20 19788 19788 10703 White 26
2 PM Tue 62 69 S 13 21 19788 19788 10703 White 26
3 PM Tue 62 67 S 14 23 19394 18274 9189 White 24
4 PM Tue 62 65 S 16 24 18999 17658 8573 White 22
5 PM Tue 60 62 S 16 24 17770 16709 7624 Blue 19
6 PM Tue 57 57 S 16 23 16062 14157 5072 Blue 14
7 PM Tue 54 54 SW 16 21 14302 11935 2850 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 51 51 SW 14 20 11962 10424 1339 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 49 49 WSW 13 20 11193 9726 641 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 47 47 W 13 19 10162 9085 0 Blue 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]