Detailed Predictions for: Horseshoe
Launch Altitude (f): 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 4 FEB 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
4 AM Sat 21 21 W 1 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 21 21 W 1 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 20 20 W 1 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 20 20 SW 2 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 27 27 SW 2 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 32 33 SW 2 6006 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 36 38 E 2 7968 9085 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 38 40 E 2 8215 9085 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 40 43 E 2 8577 9085 0 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 40 42 E 3 8459 9085 0 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 41 43 E 3 8577 9085 0 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 39 40 E 3 8215 9085 0 Blue 4
4 PM Sat 34 34 E 2 6584 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 30 30 E 2 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 27 27 E 2 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 26 26 NW 1 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 25 25 NW 1 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 24 24 NW 1 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 23 23 NW 2 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 23 23 NW 2 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 22 22 NW 2 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 22 22 NW 3 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 22 22 NW 3 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 22 22 NW 3 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 22 22 NW 5 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 22 22 NW 5 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 21 21 NW 5 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 21 21 NW 3 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 29 29 NW 3 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 34 34 NW 3 6584 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 38 39 N 2 8091 9085 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 41 43 N 2 8577 9085 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 43 45 N 2 8861 9085 0 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 43 45 E 5 8861 9085 0 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 43 44 E 5 8696 9085 0 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 42 42 E 5 8459 9085 0 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 36 36 S 1 7685 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 32 32 S 1 5407 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 29 29 S 1 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 28 28 S 1 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 28 28 S 1 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 26 26 S 1 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 25 25 NW 5 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 25 25 NW 5 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 24 24 NW 5 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 24 24 NW 5 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 24 24 NW 5 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 24 24 NW 5 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 24 24 NW 5 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 24 24 NW 5 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 23 23 NW 5 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 23 23 NW 5 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 30 30 NW 5 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 36 36 NW 5 7685 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 39 40 N 2 8215 9085 0 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 42 44 N 2 8696 9085 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 44 46 N 2 9112 9085 0 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 44 46 N 2 9112 9085 0 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 44 45 N 2 8861 9085 0 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 43 43 N 2 8577 9085 0 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 38 38 S 5 7968 9085 0 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 34 34 S 5 6584 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 32 32 S 5 5407 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 31 31 S 5 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 30 30 S 5 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 29 29 S 5 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 28 28 S 5 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 28 28 S 5 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 27 27 S 5 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 27 27 S 5 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 27 27 S 5 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 27 27 S 5 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 27 27 SE 8 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 27 27 SE 8 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 26 26 SE 8 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 26 26 SE 8 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 32 32 SE 8 5407 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 36 36 SE 8 7685 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 39 39 S 8 8091 9085 0 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 41 41 S 8 8338 9085 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 43 44 S 8 8696 9085 0 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 43 43 S 8 8577 9085 0 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 43 43 S 8 8577 9085 0 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 42 42 S 8 8459 9085 0 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 36 36 SE 7 7685 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 32 32 SE 7 5407 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 30 30 SE 7 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 29 29 SE 7 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 28 28 SE 7 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 27 27 SE 7 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 26 26 E 3 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 26 26 E 3 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 25 25 E 3 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 25 25 E 3 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 25 25 E 3 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 25 25 E 3 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 25 25 N 10 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 25 25 N 10 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 24 24 N 10 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 24 24 N 10 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 31 31 N 10 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 36 36 N 10 7685 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 40 41 N 13 8338 9085 0 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 43 44 N 13 8696 9085 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 44 46 N 13 9112 9085 0 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 45 46 N 13 9112 9085 0 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 45 46 N 13 9112 9085 0 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 44 44 N 13 8696 9085 0 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 38 38 NE 13 7968 9085 0 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 34 34 NE 13 6584 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 32 32 NE 13 5407 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 31 31 NE 13 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 30 30 NE 13 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 28 28 NE 13 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 27 27 N 13 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 27 27 N 13 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 27 27 N 13 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 26 26 N 13 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 26 26 N 13 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 26 26 N 13 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 26 26 N 10 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 26 26 N 10 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 25 25 N 10 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 26 26 N 10 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 34 34 N 10 6584 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 40 41 N 10 8338 9085 0 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 44 45 N 10 8861 9085 0 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 47 49 N 10 9947 9097 12 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 49 51 N 10 10982 9607 522 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 49 51 N 10 10982 9607 522 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 50 51 N 10 10982 9607 522 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 48 49 N 10 9947 9097 12 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 42 42 NE 7 8459 9085 0 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 37 37 NE 7 7845 9085 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 34 34 NE 7 6584 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 33 33 NE 7 6006 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 32 32 NE 7 5407 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 30 30 NE 7 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 29 29 N 8 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 29 29 N 8 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 28 28 N 8 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 28 28 N 8 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 28 28 N 8 4921 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 28 28 N 8 4921 9085 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com