Detailed Predictions for: Horseshoe
Launch Altitude (f): 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 WNW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 54 54 WNW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 53 53 WNW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 53 53 WNW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 51 51 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 49 49 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 49 49 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 51 51 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 60 60 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 69 70 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 73 76 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 76 79 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 78 81 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 80 84 ESE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 81 84 ESE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 81 84 ESE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 80 82 SSE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 76 77 SSE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 73 73 SSE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 68 68 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 63 63 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 60 60 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 58 58 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 56 56 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 52 52 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 52 52 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 51 51 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 50 50 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 48 48 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 48 48 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 50 50 WSW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 59 59 WSW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 67 68 WSW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 72 75 ESE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 74 77 ESE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 76 80 ESE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 78 82 SE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 79 83 SE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 79 82 SE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 78 80 SSE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 74 75 SSE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 70 70 SSE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 65 65 WSW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 60 60 WSW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 57 57 WSW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 54 54 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 52 52 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 48 48 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 47 47 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 47 47 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 46 46 NNW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 44 44 NNW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 44 44 NNW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 46 46 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 55 55 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 64 65 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 68 71 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 70 73 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 73 77 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 74 79 ESE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 75 79 ESE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 75 78 ESE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 74 76 ESE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 71 72 ESE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 68 68 ESE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 62 62 SSE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 58 58 SSE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 55 55 SSE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 52 52 NE 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 50 50 NE 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 NE 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 47 47 N 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 46 46 N 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 45 45 N 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 44 44 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 42 42 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 42 42 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 45 45 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 54 54 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 64 65 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 69 72 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 72 76 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 74 78 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 76 81 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 77 81 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 77 80 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 76 78 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 72 73 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 69 69 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 64 64 SSE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 59 59 SSE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 56 56 SSE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 54 54 SSE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 51 51 SSE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 SSE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 48 48 NNW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 47 47 NNW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 47 47 NNW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 46 46 NNW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 44 44 NNW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 44 44 NNW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 46 46 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 55 55 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 64 65 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 69 71 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 72 76 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 74 78 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 76 81 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 77 81 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 77 80 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 76 78 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 72 73 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 69 69 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 64 64 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 60 60 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 57 57 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 54 54 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 52 52 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 49 49 NNW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 48 48 NNW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 48 48 NNW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 47 47 NNW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 45 45 NNW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 45 45 NNW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 47 47 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 56 56 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 65 66 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 70 72 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 72 76 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 75 80 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 76 81 SE 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 77 82 SE 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 77 81 SE 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 76 78 SE 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the Weather Channel estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com