Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Altitude (f): 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 11 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
7 AM Thu 38 38 NE 6 2667 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 44 45 NE 6 4616 4770 0 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 50 52 NE 6 5172 4770 0 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 51 55 NE 7 5964 5160 390 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 53 58 NE 7 6743 5945 1175 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 57 62 NE 7 7874 6973 2203 Blue 18
1 PM Thu 58 63 E 6 8202 7227 2457 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 58 62 E 6 7874 6973 2203 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 54 56 E 6 6225 5423 653 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 53 54 E 4 5701 4977 207 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 49 49 E 4 4751 4770 0 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 49 49 E 4 4751 4770 0 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 50 50 E 2 4827 4770 0 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 48 48 E 2 4711 4770 0 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 47 47 E 2 4679 4770 0 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 50 50 SE 3 4827 4770 0 Blue 6
11 PM Thu 48 48 SE 3 4711 4770 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 SE 3 4751 4770 0 Blue 5
1 AM Fri 48 48 SE 5 4711 4770 0 Blue 4
2 AM Fri 45 45 SE 5 4616 4770 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 46 46 SE 5 4648 4770 0 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 46 46 SE 3 4648 4770 0 Blue 2
5 AM Fri 41 41 SE 3 3374 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 37 37 SE 3 2667 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 45 45 SE 3 4616 4770 0 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 50 51 SE 3 4982 4770 0 Blue 7
9 AM Fri 56 58 SE 3 6743 5945 1175 Blue 14
10 AM Fri 57 60 S 8 7256 6461 1691 Blue 16
11 AM Fri 59 63 S 8 8202 7227 2457 Blue 19
12 Noon Fri 62 66 S 8 9168 8155 3385 Blue 22
1 PM Fri 63 67 S 8 9484 8477 3707 Blue 23
2 PM Fri 63 66 S 8 9168 8155 3385 Blue 22
3 PM Fri 59 61 S 8 7543 6718 1948 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 58 58 SW 16 6743 5945 1175 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 54 54 SW 16 5701 4977 207 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 53 53 SW 16 5437 4824 54 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 55 55 SW 16 5964 5160 390 Blue 11
8 PM Fri 52 52 SW 16 5172 4770 0 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 52 52 SW 16 5172 4770 0 Blue 8
10 PM Fri 55 55 W 16 5964 5160 390 Blue 11
11 PM Fri 53 53 W 16 5437 4824 54 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 W 16 5701 4977 207 Blue 10
1 AM Sat 53 53 W 16 5437 4824 54 Blue 9
2 AM Sat 50 50 W 16 4827 4770 0 Blue 6
3 AM Sat 50 50 W 16 4827 4770 0 Blue 6
4 AM Sat 51 51 W 17 4982 4770 0 Blue 7
5 AM Sat 46 46 W 17 4648 4770 0 Blue 2
6 AM Sat 41 41 W 17 3374 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 46 W 17 4648 4770 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sat 50 50 W 17 4827 4770 0 Blue 6
9 AM Sat 53 54 W 17 5701 4977 207 Blue 10
10 AM Sat 54 56 W 17 6225 5423 653 Blue 12
11 AM Sat 55 57 W 17 6484 5685 915 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 57 60 W 17 7256 6461 1691 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 58 60 W 17 7256 6461 1691 Blue 16
2 PM Sat 58 60 W 17 7256 6461 1691 Blue 16
3 PM Sat 54 55 W 17 5964 5160 390 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 53 53 NW 13 5437 4824 54 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 49 49 NW 13 4751 4770 0 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 48 48 NW 13 4711 4770 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 50 50 NW 13 4827 4770 0 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 47 47 NW 13 4679 4770 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 47 47 NW 13 4679 4770 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 50 50 N 13 4827 4770 0 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 48 48 N 13 4711 4770 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 N 13 4751 4770 0 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 48 48 N 13 4711 4770 0 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 45 45 N 13 4616 4770 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 45 45 N 13 4616 4770 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sun 46 46 NE 14 4648 4770 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sun 41 41 NE 14 3374 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 36 36 NE 14 2667 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 43 NE 14 4192 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 49 NE 14 4751 4770 0 Blue 5
9 AM Sun 53 55 NE 14 5964 5160 390 Blue 11
10 AM Sun 54 57 NE 11 6484 5685 915 Blue 13
11 AM Sun 56 60 NE 11 7256 6461 1691 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 59 64 NE 11 8527 7502 2732 Blue 20
1 PM Sun 60 64 NE 11 8527 7502 2732 Blue 20
2 PM Sun 60 63 NE 11 8202 7227 2457 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 57 59 NE 11 7000 6204 1434 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 56 57 NE 10 6484 5685 915 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 53 53 NE 10 5437 4824 54 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 53 53 NE 10 5437 4824 54 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 53 53 NE 10 5437 4824 54 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 52 52 NE 10 5172 4770 0 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 51 51 NE 10 4982 4770 0 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 53 53 NE 9 5437 4824 54 Blue 9
11 PM Sun 52 52 NE 9 5172 4770 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 NE 9 5437 4824 54 Blue 9
1 AM Mon 52 52 NE 9 5172 4770 0 Blue 8
2 AM Mon 50 50 NE 9 4827 4770 0 Blue 6
3 AM Mon 50 50 NE 9 4827 4770 0 Blue 6
4 AM Mon 50 50 NE 8 4827 4770 0 Blue 6
5 AM Mon 47 47 NE 8 4679 4770 0 Blue 3
6 AM Mon 43 43 NE 8 4192 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 50 NE 8 4827 4770 0 Blue 6
8 AM Mon 56 57 NE 8 6484 5685 915 Blue 13
9 AM Mon 61 63 NE 8 8202 7227 2457 Blue 19
10 AM Mon 62 66 NE 8 9168 8155 3385 Blue 22
11 AM Mon 64 69 NE 8 10407 9112 4342 Blue 25
12 Noon Mon 67 72 NE 8 13444 10319 5549 Blue 28
1 PM Mon 68 73 NE 8 13508 10718 5948 Blue 29
2 PM Mon 68 72 NE 8 13444 10319 5549 Blue 28
3 PM Mon 64 66 NE 8 9168 8155 3385 Blue 22
4 PM Mon 63 64 E 9 8527 7502 2732 Blue 20
5 PM Mon 59 59 E 9 7000 6204 1434 Blue 15
6 PM Mon 58 58 E 9 6743 5945 1175 Blue 14
7 PM Mon 60 60 E 9 7256 6461 1691 Blue 16
8 PM Mon 57 57 E 9 6484 5685 915 Blue 13
9 PM Mon 57 57 E 9 6484 5685 915 Blue 13
10 PM Mon 60 60 NE 8 7256 6461 1691 Blue 16
11 PM Mon 58 58 NE 8 6743 5945 1175 Blue 14
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 NE 8 7000 6204 1434 Blue 15
1 AM Tue 58 58 NE 8 6743 5945 1175 Blue 14
2 AM Tue 55 55 NE 8 5964 5160 390 Blue 11
3 AM Tue 55 55 NE 8 5964 5160 390 Blue 11
4 AM Tue 56 56 NE 9 6225 5423 653 Blue 12
5 AM Tue 51 51 NE 9 4982 4770 0 Blue 7
6 AM Tue 46 46 NE 9 4648 4770 0 Blue 2
7 AM Tue 52 52 NE 9 5172 4770 0 Blue 8
8 AM Tue 57 58 NE 9 6743 5945 1175 Blue 14
9 AM Tue 62 64 NE 9 8527 7502 2732 Blue 20
10 AM Tue 63 66 NE 7 9168 8155 3385 Blue 22
11 AM Tue 64 68 NE 7 9955 8796 4026 Blue 24
12 Noon Tue 67 72 NE 7 13444 10319 5549 Blue 28
1 PM Tue 68 72 NE 7 13444 10319 5549 Blue 28
2 PM Tue 68 71 NE 7 13310 9837 5067 Blue 27
3 PM Tue 64 66 NE 7 9168 8155 3385 Blue 22
4 PM Tue 63 64 E 7 8527 7502 2732 Blue 20
5 PM Tue 59 59 E 7 7000 6204 1434 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 59 59 E 7 7000 6204 1434 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 60 60 E 7 7256 6461 1691 Blue 16
8 PM Tue 58 58 E 7 6743 5945 1175 Blue 14
9 PM Tue 57 57 E 7 6484 5685 915 Blue 13
10 PM Tue 60 60 E 4 7256 6461 1691 Blue 16
11 PM Tue 58 58 E 4 6743 5945 1175 Blue 14
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 E 4 7000 6204 1434 Blue 15
1 AM Wed 58 58 E 4 6743 5945 1175 Blue 14
2 AM Wed 55 55 E 4 5964 5160 390 Blue 11
3 AM Wed 56 56 E 4 6225 5423 653 Blue 12
4 AM Wed 56 56 NE 6 6225 5423 653 Blue 12
5 AM Wed 51 51 NE 6 4982 4770 0 Blue 7
6 AM Wed 47 47 NE 6 4679 4770 0 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com