Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Altitude (f): 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 19 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 46 46 NE 15 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 46 NE 15 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 44 44 NE 15 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 51 NE 10 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 56 NE 10 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 57 60 NE 10 3947 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 59 63 NE 10 5315 4770 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 61 67 NE 10 6470 5589 819 Blue 5
1 PM Fri 64 70 NE 10 7316 6445 1675 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 66 71 NE 9 7595 6727 1957 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 68 72 NE 9 7872 7006 2236 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 67 69 NE 9 7036 6162 1392 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 67 68 NE 5 6754 5876 1106 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 61 61 NE 5 4452 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 54 54 NE 5 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 51 51 S 1 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 51 51 S 1 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 49 49 S 1 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 47 47 W 7 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 47 47 W 7 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 47 47 W 7 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 47 47 W 7 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 46 W 7 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 W 7 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 45 NE 5 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 45 NE 5 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 NE 5 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 51 NE 5 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 57 NE 5 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 61 NE 5 4452 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 60 64 E 6 5606 4770 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 63 69 E 6 7036 6162 1392 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 65 71 E 6 7595 6727 1957 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 67 72 E 6 7872 7006 2236 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 70 74 E 6 8421 7561 2791 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 69 71 E 6 7595 6727 1957 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 69 70 SW 7 7316 6445 1675 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 63 63 SW 7 5315 4770 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 56 56 SW 7 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 52 SW 7 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 53 53 SW 7 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 50 SW 7 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 49 49 SW 5 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 SW 5 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 SW 5 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 48 SW 5 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 47 SW 5 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 46 SW 5 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 46 W 3 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 46 W 3 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 W 3 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 53 W 3 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 59 W 3 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 61 64 W 3 5606 4770 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 63 67 S 2 6470 5589 819 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 66 72 S 2 7872 7006 2236 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 69 75 S 2 8686 7836 3066 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 71 76 S 2 9655 8109 3339 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 74 78 S 2 13623 8644 3874 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 72 74 S 2 8421 7561 2791 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 73 74 W 15 8421 7561 2791 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 67 67 W 15 6470 5589 819 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 59 59 W 15 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 55 55 W 15 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 55 W 15 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 53 W 15 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 51 51 W 12 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 W 12 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 51 W 12 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 50 W 12 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 49 W 12 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 W 12 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 49 49 W 9 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 49 W 9 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 47 47 W 9 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 52 W 9 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 55 56 W 9 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 56 58 W 9 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 57 60 W 5 3947 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 59 63 W 5 5315 4770 0 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 61 66 W 5 6184 5300 530 Blue 4
2 PM Mon 62 66 W 5 6184 5300 530 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 64 67 W 5 6470 5589 819 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 63 65 W 5 5896 5010 240 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 64 65 W 16 5896 5010 240 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 59 59 W 16 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 54 54 W 16 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 51 51 W 16 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 51 W 16 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 50 50 W 16 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 49 49 W 13 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 W 13 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 48 48 W 13 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 48 W 13 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 47 47 W 13 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 47 W 13 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 NW 8 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 47 NW 8 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 46 NW 8 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 NW 8 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 54 NW 8 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 54 56 NW 8 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 55 58 NE 17 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 56 59 NE 17 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 57 61 NE 17 4452 4770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 59 62 NE 17 5021 4770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 60 62 NE 17 5021 4770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 59 60 NE 17 3947 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 60 61 NE 12 4452 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 55 55 NE 12 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 50 50 NE 12 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 48 48 NE 12 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 48 48 NE 12 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 47 47 NE 12 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 45 45 NE 28 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 45 45 NE 28 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 45 45 NE 28 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 45 45 NE 28 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 44 NE 28 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 44 NE 28 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 44 44 NE 11 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 NE 11 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 43 43 NE 11 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 48 NE 11 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 51 52 NE 11 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 53 55 NE 11 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 54 57 NE 9 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 56 60 NE 9 3947 4770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 58 63 NE 9 5315 4770 0 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 59 63 NE 9 5315 4770 0 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 61 64 NE 9 5606 4770 0 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 60 62 NE 9 5021 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 61 62 NE 19 5021 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 56 56 NE 19 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 50 50 NE 19 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 47 47 NE 19 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 48 48 NE 19 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 46 46 NE 19 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 45 45 N 9 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 44 44 N 9 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 44 44 N 9 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 44 44 N 9 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 43 43 N 9 3543 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 43 43 N 9 3543 4770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com