Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Altitude (f): 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 80 80 WSW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 77 77 WSW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 75 75 W 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 74 74 W 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 73 73 W 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 71 71 WNW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 70 70 WNW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 73 73 WNW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 80 80 SW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 83 85 SW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 86 90 SW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 88 93 WSW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 90 96 WSW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 91 98 WSW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 92 98 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 92 97 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 93 96 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 92 93 SSW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 88 88 SSW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 84 84 SSW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 82 82 SW 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 81 81 SW 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 80 80 SW 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 78 78 WSW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 77 77 WSW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 74 74 WSW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 72 72 WSW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 72 72 WSW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 71 71 WSW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 70 70 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 69 69 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 71 71 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 76 76 SW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 78 80 SW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 80 84 SW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 82 87 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 83 89 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 84 91 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 85 91 SSW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 84 89 SSW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 85 88 SSW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 84 85 SSW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 81 81 SSW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 78 78 SSW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 77 77 SW 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 75 75 SW 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 75 75 SW 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 73 73 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 73 73 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 70 70 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 69 69 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 68 68 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 68 68 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 67 67 SW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 66 66 SW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 68 68 SW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 72 72 SSW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 74 76 SSW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 76 80 SSW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 77 82 SSW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 78 84 SSW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 79 86 SSW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 80 86 SSW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 79 84 SSW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 80 83 SSW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 79 80 SSW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 77 77 SSW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 74 74 SSW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 73 73 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 72 72 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 71 71 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 70 70 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 70 70 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 67 67 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 66 66 WSW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 66 66 WSW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 65 65 WSW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 65 65 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 64 64 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 67 67 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 73 73 SSW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 76 78 SSW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 79 83 SSW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 81 85 SSE 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 82 87 SSE 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 83 89 SSE 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 84 89 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 84 88 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 85 88 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 84 85 SSW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 80 80 SSW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 77 77 SSW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 76 76 SW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 74 74 SW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 74 74 SW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 72 72 WSW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 71 71 WSW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 69 69 WSW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 67 67 WNW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 66 66 WNW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 66 66 WNW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 65 65 WNW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 64 64 WNW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 67 67 WNW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 74 74 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 77 78 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 80 83 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 82 86 ENE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 84 89 ENE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 85 90 ENE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 86 91 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 86 90 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 87 89 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 86 87 SW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 82 82 SW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 78 78 SW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 77 77 WNW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 75 75 WNW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 75 75 WNW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 72 72 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 72 72 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 69 69 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 67 67 NNE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 66 66 NNE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 66 66 NNE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 65 65 NNE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 64 64 NNE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 68 68 NNE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 74 74 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 78 79 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 81 84 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 84 88 ENE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 86 91 ENE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 87 92 ENE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 88 92 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 88 91 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 89 91 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the Weather Channel estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com