Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Altitude (f): 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 3 SEP 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 68 68 W 2 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 69 69 W 2 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 72 72 W 2 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 75 75 N 2 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 78 80 N 2 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 80 84 N 2 6236 4770 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 83 89 E 2 10049 7971 3201 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 86 93 E 2 11645 10617 5847 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 89 96 E 2 12576 11566 6796 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 92 99 S 8 13629 12490 7720 Blue 16
3 PM Fri 94 99 S 8 13629 12490 7720 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 96 100 S 8 14105 12792 8022 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 95 97 SW 8 12881 11877 7107 Blue 14
6 PM Fri 92 92 SW 8 11329 9937 5167 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 88 88 SW 8 9469 7108 2338 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 84 84 W 10 6236 4770 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 82 82 W 10 4422 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 82 82 W 10 4422 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 81 81 W 3 3742 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 79 79 W 3 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 77 77 W 3 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 74 74 W 2 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 72 72 W 2 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 71 71 W 2 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 70 70 W 3 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 71 71 W 3 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 72 72 W 3 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 75 75 W 2 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 79 81 W 2 3742 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 83 87 W 2 8867 6160 1390 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 87 93 W 6 11645 10617 5847 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 90 97 W 6 12881 11877 7107 Blue 14
1 PM Sat 93 100 W 6 14105 12792 8022 Blue 17
2 PM Sat 95 102 SW 16 15022 13476 8706 Blue 19
3 PM Sat 96 101 SW 16 14569 13092 8322 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 97 101 SW 16 14569 13092 8322 Blue 18
5 PM Sat 96 98 W 15 13184 12184 7414 Blue 15
6 PM Sat 92 92 W 15 11329 9937 5167 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 88 88 W 15 9469 7108 2338 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 84 84 W 14 6236 4770 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 82 82 W 14 4422 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 80 80 W 14 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 79 79 W 10 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 77 77 W 10 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 76 76 W 10 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 75 75 W 3 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 72 72 W 3 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 70 70 W 3 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 69 69 W 1 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 70 70 W 1 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 73 73 W 1 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 76 76 W 1 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 79 81 W 1 3742 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 82 86 W 1 8083 5095 325 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 85 91 W 23 11010 9364 4594 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 87 94 W 23 11958 10936 6166 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 88 95 W 23 12268 11253 6483 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 89 96 W 23 12576 11566 6796 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 90 95 W 23 12268 11253 6483 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 90 94 W 23 11958 10936 6166 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 88 90 W 28 10687 8770 4000 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 83 83 W 28 5143 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 78 78 W 28 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 74 74 W 28 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 72 72 W 28 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 72 72 W 28 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 73 73 NW 13 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 72 72 NW 13 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 70 70 NW 13 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 69 69 NW 13 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 66 66 NW 13 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 63 63 NW 13 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 62 62 N 8 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 63 63 N 8 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 65 65 N 8 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 68 68 N 8 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 71 73 N 8 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 75 79 N 8 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 78 84 NE 9 6236 4770 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 81 88 NE 9 9469 7108 2338 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 84 91 NE 9 11010 9364 4594 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 85 92 NE 9 11329 9937 5167 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 86 91 NE 9 11010 9364 4594 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 85 89 NE 9 10049 7971 3201 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 84 86 S 7 8083 5095 325 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 80 80 S 7 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 76 76 S 7 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 72 72 S 7 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 71 71 S 7 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 71 71 S 7 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 70 70 W 7 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 69 69 W 7 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 67 67 W 7 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 65 65 W 7 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 63 63 W 7 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 61 61 W 7 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 60 60 SW 5 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 61 61 SW 5 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 63 63 SW 5 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 66 66 SW 5 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 70 72 SW 5 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 73 77 SW 5 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 76 82 S 12 4422 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 79 86 S 12 8083 5095 325 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 81 88 S 12 9469 7108 2338 Blue 5
2 PM Tue 82 89 S 12 10049 7971 3201 Blue 6
3 PM Tue 82 87 S 12 8867 6160 1390 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 80 84 S 12 6236 4770 0 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 77 79 SW 22 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 74 74 SW 22 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 70 70 SW 22 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 66 66 SW 22 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 66 66 SW 22 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 67 67 SW 22 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 67 67 W 13 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 W 13 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 64 64 W 13 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 62 62 W 13 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 W 13 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 59 W 13 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 58 58 SW 9 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 59 SW 9 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 60 SW 9 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 63 63 SW 9 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 67 69 SW 9 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 71 75 SW 9 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 75 81 SW 15 3742 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 76 83 SW 15 5143 4770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 76 83 SW 15 5143 4770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 76 83 SW 15 5143 4770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 76 81 SW 15 3742 4770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 76 80 SW 15 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 75 77 W 24 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 72 72 W 24 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 69 69 W 24 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 67 67 W 24 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 67 67 W 24 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 67 67 W 24 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 67 67 W 18 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 66 66 W 18 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 64 64 W 18 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 63 63 W 18 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 60 W 18 3340 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 W 18 3340 4770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com