Detailed Predictions for: Eliminator Skyport
Launch Altitude (f): 3100
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 4 FEB 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
4 AM Sat 52 52 N 1 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 51 N 1 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 51 N 1 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 52 N 1 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 54 N 1 2106 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 58 N 1 5605 3100 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 58 59 N 2 6147 4080 980 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 58 60 N 2 6673 5000 1900 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 58 61 N 2 7183 5552 2452 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 58 60 S 7 6673 5000 1900 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 58 60 S 7 6673 5000 1900 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 58 59 S 7 6147 4080 980 Blue 4
4 PM Sat 57 57 S 3 5045 3100 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sat 56 56 S 3 4130 3100 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 55 55 S 3 2994 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 53 53 NE 3 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 53 53 NE 3 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 53 53 NE 3 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 53 53 E 9 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 53 53 E 9 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 54 54 E 9 2106 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 54 E 9 2106 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 54 E 9 2106 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 53 53 E 9 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 53 E 9 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 53 E 9 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 53 E 9 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 53 E 9 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 54 E 9 2106 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 56 E 9 4130 3100 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 58 59 SE 5 6147 4080 980 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 58 60 SE 5 6673 5000 1900 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 58 60 SE 5 6673 5000 1900 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 58 60 SE 5 6673 5000 1900 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 58 59 SE 5 6147 4080 980 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 58 59 SE 5 6147 4080 980 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 57 57 SE 5 5045 3100 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 56 56 SE 5 4130 3100 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 54 54 SE 5 2106 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 53 53 SE 5 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 52 SE 5 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 52 SE 5 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 52 52 SE 8 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 52 SE 8 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 SE 8 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 51 SE 8 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 51 SE 8 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 50 SE 8 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 50 50 SE 8 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 50 SE 8 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 50 SE 8 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 51 51 SE 8 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 52 SE 8 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 55 55 SE 8 2994 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 56 57 SE 8 5045 3100 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 57 58 SE 8 5605 3100 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 57 59 SE 8 6147 4080 980 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 57 58 SE 8 5605 3100 0 Blue 3
2 PM Mon 57 58 SE 8 5605 3100 0 Blue 3
3 PM Mon 56 56 SE 8 4130 3100 0 Blue 1
4 PM Mon 56 56 SE 10 4130 3100 0 Blue 1
5 PM Mon 55 55 SE 10 2994 3100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 55 55 SE 10 2994 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 55 55 SE 10 2994 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 55 55 SE 10 2994 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 55 SE 10 2994 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 56 SE 12 4130 3100 0 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 56 56 SE 12 4130 3100 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 SE 12 4130 3100 0 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 56 56 SE 12 4130 3100 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 56 56 SE 12 4130 3100 0 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 56 56 SE 12 4130 3100 0 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 56 56 SE 13 4130 3100 0 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 55 55 SE 13 2994 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 SE 13 2994 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 55 SE 13 2994 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 55 SE 13 2994 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 53 SE 13 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 53 53 SE 13 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 52 52 SE 13 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 52 52 SE 13 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 52 52 SE 13 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 51 51 SE 13 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 51 51 SE 13 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 50 50 S 7 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 50 50 S 7 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 50 50 S 7 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 49 49 S 7 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 49 49 S 7 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 49 49 S 7 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 49 49 NW 16 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 49 49 NW 16 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 NW 16 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 49 NW 16 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 49 NW 16 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 49 NW 16 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 49 N 10 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 49 N 10 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 N 10 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 48 N 10 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 48 N 10 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 48 48 N 10 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 49 50 N 8 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 49 51 N 8 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 50 52 N 8 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 50 52 N 8 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 50 51 N 8 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 50 51 N 8 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 50 50 N 13 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 50 50 N 13 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 50 50 N 13 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 51 51 N 13 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 52 52 N 13 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 52 52 N 13 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 52 NE 18 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 53 NE 18 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 NE 18 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 53 NE 18 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 53 NE 18 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 52 NE 18 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 52 NE 18 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 52 NE 18 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 52 NE 18 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 52 NE 18 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 53 53 NE 18 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 56 NE 18 4130 3100 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 57 59 W 9 6147 4080 980 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 57 60 W 9 6673 5000 1900 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 57 60 W 9 6673 5000 1900 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 58 61 W 9 7183 5552 2452 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 58 60 W 9 6673 5000 1900 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 58 59 W 9 6147 4080 980 Blue 4
4 PM Thu 58 58 W 9 5605 3100 0 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 57 57 W 9 5045 3100 0 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 55 55 W 9 2994 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 54 54 W 9 2106 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 54 W 9 2106 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 54 W 9 2106 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 54 54 NE 3 2106 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 54 54 NE 3 2106 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 NE 3 2106 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 54 NE 3 2106 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 53 53 NE 3 1909 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 53 NE 3 1909 3100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com