Detailed Predictions for: Eliminator Skyport
Launch Altitude (f): 3100
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 15 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Mon 48 48 NE 2 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 48 NE 2 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 47 47 NE 2 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 49 49 N 1 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 55 N 1 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 60 62 N 1 3548 3100 0 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 61 64 SW 3 4420 3100 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 65 69 SW 3 4885 4558 1458 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 68 73 SW 3 5904 5161 2061 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 69 74 S 4 6309 5401 2301 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 71 75 S 4 6986 5640 2540 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 70 72 S 4 5664 4872 1772 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 66 67 W 4 4634 4416 1316 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 62 62 W 4 3548 3100 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 58 58 W 4 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 55 55 NW 6 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 54 NW 6 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 54 NW 6 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 55 E 3 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 E 3 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 56 E 3 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 52 E 2 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 49 E 2 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 47 E 2 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 48 E 5 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 E 5 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 48 E 5 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 E 5 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 56 E 5 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 63 E 5 4273 3100 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 62 65 SE 4 4491 3526 426 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 66 70 SE 4 5181 4629 1529 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 68 73 SE 4 5904 5161 2061 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 70 75 W 4 6986 5640 2540 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 72 76 W 4 7629 5878 2778 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 71 73 W 4 5904 5161 2061 Blue 12
5 PM Tue 67 68 W 7 4706 4487 1387 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 64 64 W 7 4420 3100 0 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 60 60 W 7 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 58 58 W 7 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 57 57 W 7 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 57 57 W 7 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 58 NE 6 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 NE 6 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 58 NE 6 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 NE 6 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 NE 6 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 51 NE 6 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 E 2 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 E 2 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 51 E 2 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 53 E 2 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 58 E 2 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 62 64 E 2 4420 3100 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 63 66 S 2 4562 4236 1136 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 67 71 S 2 5423 4700 1600 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 69 74 S 2 6309 5401 2301 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 70 75 S 2 6986 5640 2540 Blue 14
3 PM Wed 72 76 S 2 7629 5878 2778 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 71 73 S 2 5904 5161 2061 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 67 68 W 5 4706 4487 1387 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 64 64 W 5 4420 3100 0 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 60 60 W 5 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 58 W 5 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 56 W 5 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 56 W 5 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 57 57 NE 7 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 NE 7 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 58 NE 7 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 NE 7 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 51 NE 7 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 50 NE 7 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 50 E 6 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 51 E 6 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 50 E 6 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 52 E 6 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 57 58 E 6 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 62 64 E 6 4420 3100 0 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 63 66 W 2 4562 4236 1136 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 67 71 W 2 5423 4700 1600 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 69 74 W 2 6309 5401 2301 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 70 75 W 2 6986 5640 2540 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 72 76 W 2 7629 5878 2778 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 71 73 W 2 5904 5161 2061 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 67 68 NW 8 4706 4487 1387 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 63 63 NW 8 4273 3100 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 59 59 NW 8 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 57 57 NW 8 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 55 55 NW 8 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 56 NW 8 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 56 NE 14 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 NE 14 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 57 NE 14 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 54 NE 14 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 50 NE 14 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 49 NE 14 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 49 E 6 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 50 E 6 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 49 E 6 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 51 E 6 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 57 E 6 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 61 63 E 6 4273 3100 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 62 65 S 2 4491 3526 426 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 66 70 S 2 5181 4629 1529 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 69 74 S 2 6309 5401 2301 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 70 75 S 2 6986 5640 2540 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 72 76 S 2 7629 5878 2778 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 71 73 S 2 5904 5161 2061 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 67 68 W 7 4706 4487 1387 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 63 63 W 7 4273 3100 0 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 58 58 W 7 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 56 56 W 7 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 54 54 W 7 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 55 W 7 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 56 56 NE 9 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 NE 9 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 56 56 NE 9 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 53 NE 9 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 49 49 NE 9 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 48 NE 9 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 48 NE 2 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 49 NE 2 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 48 NE 2 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 50 NE 2 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 56 NE 2 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 61 63 NE 2 4273 3100 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 62 65 W 3 4491 3526 426 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 66 70 W 3 5181 4629 1529 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 69 74 W 3 6309 5401 2301 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 70 75 W 3 6986 5640 2540 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 72 76 W 3 7629 5878 2778 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 71 73 W 3 5904 5161 2061 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 67 68 W 8 4706 4487 1387 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 63 63 W 8 4273 3100 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 58 58 W 8 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 56 56 W 8 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 54 54 W 8 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 55 55 W 8 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 56 56 N 6 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 N 6 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 56 N 6 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 53 N 6 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 49 N 6 2392 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 N 6 2392 3100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com