Detailed Predictions for: Eliminator Skyport
Launch Altitude (f): 3100
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 10 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
7 AM Wed 41 41 N 17 3570 3100 0 White 2
8 AM Wed 43 43 N 17 4009 3310 210 White 4
9 AM Wed 47 48 N 17 5107 5011 1911 White 9
10 AM Wed 49 52 NW 13 5968 5721 2621 White 13
11 AM Wed 50 53 NW 13 6183 5898 2798 White 14
12 Noon Wed 51 55 NW 13 6605 6605 3505 White 16
1 PM Wed 55 58 NW 13 7237 7237 4137 White 19
2 PM Wed 52 55 NW 13 6605 6605 3505 White 16
3 PM Wed 52 54 NW 13 6394 6394 3294 White 15
4 PM Wed 50 51 N 23 5753 5544 2444 White 12
5 PM Wed 48 48 N 23 5107 5011 1911 White 9
6 PM Wed 43 43 N 23 4009 3310 210 White 4
7 PM Wed 42 42 N 23 3789 3100 0 White 3
8 PM Wed 39 39 N 23 2840 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 39 39 N 23 2840 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 38 38 NE 20 2169 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 36 36 NE 20 778 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 36 36 NE 20 778 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 37 37 E 9 1312 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 39 39 E 9 2840 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 40 40 E 9 3322 3100 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 37 37 NE 12 1312 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 37 37 NE 12 1312 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 37 37 NE 12 1312 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 39 39 NE 12 2840 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 43 NE 12 4009 3310 210 White 4
9 AM Thu 49 51 NE 12 5753 5544 2444 White 12
10 AM Thu 51 55 S 2 6605 6605 3505 White 16
11 AM Thu 53 58 S 2 7237 7237 4137 White 19
12 Noon Thu 54 59 S 2 7448 7448 4348 White 20
1 PM Thu 60 65 W 6 8701 8701 5601 White 26
2 PM Thu 57 61 W 6 7866 7866 4766 White 22
3 PM Thu 58 60 W 6 7657 7657 4557 White 21
4 PM Thu 55 56 W 6 6816 6816 3716 White 17
5 PM Thu 53 53 W 6 6183 5898 2798 White 14
6 PM Thu 48 48 W 6 5107 5011 1911 White 9
7 PM Thu 46 46 W 6 4665 4644 1544 White 7
8 PM Thu 43 43 W 6 4009 3310 210 White 4
9 PM Thu 43 43 W 6 4009 3310 210 White 4
10 PM Thu 42 42 SE 5 3789 3100 0 White 3
11 PM Thu 39 39 SE 5 2840 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 40 40 SE 5 3322 3100 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 40 40 SE 5 3322 3100 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 42 42 SE 5 3789 3100 0 White 3
3 AM Fri 43 43 SE 5 4009 3310 210 White 4
4 AM Fri 40 40 SE 7 3322 3100 0 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 41 41 SE 7 3570 3100 0 White 2
6 AM Fri 40 40 SE 7 3322 3100 0 Blue 1
7 AM Fri 42 42 SE 7 3789 3100 0 White 3
8 AM Fri 45 46 SE 7 4665 4644 1544 White 7
9 AM Fri 52 54 SE 7 6394 6394 3294 White 15
10 AM Fri 54 57 W 12 7027 7027 3927 White 18
11 AM Fri 56 60 W 12 7657 7657 4557 White 21
12 Noon Fri 57 62 W 12 8075 8075 4975 White 23
1 PM Fri 63 67 W 12 9116 9116 6016 White 28
2 PM Fri 60 63 W 12 8284 8284 5184 White 24
3 PM Fri 61 63 W 12 8284 8284 5184 White 24
4 PM Fri 58 58 W 12 7237 7237 4137 White 19
5 PM Fri 56 56 W 12 6816 6816 3716 White 17
6 PM Fri 51 51 W 12 5753 5544 2444 White 12
7 PM Fri 49 49 W 12 5323 5189 2089 White 10
8 PM Fri 46 46 W 12 4665 4644 1544 White 7
9 PM Fri 46 46 W 12 4665 4644 1544 White 7
10 PM Fri 45 45 N 20 4444 4273 1173 White 6
11 PM Fri 43 43 N 20 4009 3310 210 White 4
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 N 20 4009 3310 210 White 4
1 AM Sat 43 43 N 20 4009 3310 210 White 4
2 AM Sat 44 44 N 20 4227 3774 674 White 5
3 AM Sat 45 45 N 20 4444 4273 1173 White 6
4 AM Sat 44 44 N 20 4227 3774 674 White 5
5 AM Sat 44 44 N 20 4227 3774 674 White 5
6 AM Sat 43 43 N 20 4009 3310 210 White 4
7 AM Sat 44 44 N 20 4227 3774 674 White 5
8 AM Sat 47 47 N 20 4891 4831 1731 White 8
9 AM Sat 51 52 N 20 5968 5721 2621 White 13
10 AM Sat 53 56 W 9 6816 6816 3716 White 17
11 AM Sat 54 58 W 9 7237 7237 4137 White 19
12 Noon Sat 55 59 W 9 7448 7448 4348 White 20
1 PM Sat 59 63 W 9 8284 8284 5184 White 24
2 PM Sat 56 59 W 9 7448 7448 4348 White 20
3 PM Sat 57 59 W 9 7448 7448 4348 White 20
4 PM Sat 55 55 W 9 6605 6605 3505 White 16
5 PM Sat 53 53 W 9 6183 5898 2798 White 14
6 PM Sat 48 48 W 9 5107 5011 1911 White 9
7 PM Sat 46 46 W 9 4665 4644 1544 White 7
8 PM Sat 44 44 W 9 4227 3774 674 White 5
9 PM Sat 44 44 W 9 4227 3774 674 White 5
10 PM Sat 43 43 NE 2 4009 3310 210 White 4
11 PM Sat 41 41 NE 2 3570 3100 0 White 2
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 NE 2 3570 3100 0 White 2
1 AM Sun 42 42 NE 2 3789 3100 0 White 3
2 AM Sun 43 43 NE 2 4009 3310 210 White 4
3 AM Sun 44 44 NE 2 4227 3774 674 White 5
4 AM Sun 42 42 SW 3 3789 3100 0 White 3
5 AM Sun 42 42 SW 3 3789 3100 0 White 3
6 AM Sun 41 41 SW 3 3570 3100 0 White 2
7 AM Sun 43 43 SW 3 4009 3310 210 White 4
8 AM Sun 47 48 SW 3 5107 5011 1911 White 9
9 AM Sun 53 55 SW 3 6605 6605 3505 White 16
10 AM Sun 56 59 W 5 7448 7448 4348 White 20
11 AM Sun 57 61 W 5 7866 7866 4766 White 22
12 Noon Sun 59 64 W 5 8493 8493 5393 White 25
1 PM Sun 65 69 W 5 9534 9534 6434 White 30
2 PM Sun 61 64 W 5 8493 8493 5393 White 25
3 PM Sun 62 64 W 5 8493 8493 5393 White 25
4 PM Sun 59 60 W 5 7657 7657 4557 White 21
5 PM Sun 57 57 W 5 7027 7027 3927 White 18
6 PM Sun 51 51 W 5 5753 5544 2444 White 12
7 PM Sun 48 48 W 5 5107 5011 1911 White 9
8 PM Sun 45 45 W 5 4444 4273 1173 White 6
9 PM Sun 45 45 W 5 4444 4273 1173 White 6
10 PM Sun 44 44 NE 3 4227 3774 674 White 5
11 PM Sun 41 41 NE 3 3570 3100 0 White 2
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 NE 3 3789 3100 0 White 3
1 AM Mon 43 43 NE 3 4009 3310 210 White 4
2 AM Mon 44 44 NE 3 4227 3774 674 White 5
3 AM Mon 46 46 NE 3 4665 4644 1544 White 7
4 AM Mon 43 43 NE 3 4009 3310 210 White 4
5 AM Mon 43 43 NE 3 4009 3310 210 White 4
6 AM Mon 42 42 NE 3 3789 3100 0 White 3
7 AM Mon 44 44 NE 3 4227 3774 674 White 5
8 AM Mon 49 50 NE 3 5538 5366 2266 White 11
9 AM Mon 57 59 NE 3 7448 7448 4348 White 20
10 AM Mon 60 63 SW 2 8284 8284 5184 White 24
11 AM Mon 62 66 SW 2 8908 8908 5808 White 27
12 Noon Mon 64 69 SW 2 9534 9534 6434 White 30
1 PM Mon 71 76 SW 2 10966 10966 7866 White 37
2 PM Mon 67 71 SW 2 9951 9951 6851 White 32
3 PM Mon 68 70 SW 2 9744 9744 6644 White 31
4 PM Mon 65 66 SW 2 8908 8908 5808 White 27
5 PM Mon 63 63 SW 2 8284 8284 5184 White 24
6 PM Mon 55 55 SW 2 6605 6605 3505 White 16
7 PM Mon 53 53 SW 2 6183 5898 2798 White 14
8 PM Mon 49 49 SW 2 5323 5189 2089 White 10
9 PM Mon 49 49 SW 2 5323 5189 2089 White 10
10 PM Mon 48 48 SE 4 5107 5011 1911 White 9
11 PM Mon 45 45 SE 4 4444 4273 1173 White 6
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 SE 4 4444 4273 1173 White 6
1 AM Tue 46 46 SE 4 4665 4644 1544 White 7
2 AM Tue 47 47 SE 4 4891 4831 1731 White 8
3 AM Tue 48 48 SE 4 5107 5011 1911 White 9
4 AM Tue 46 46 SE 4 4665 4644 1544 White 7
5 AM Tue 46 46 SE 4 4665 4644 1544 White 7
6 AM Tue 45 45 SE 4 4444 4273 1173 White 6

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com