Detailed Predictions for: Eliminator Skyport
Launch Altitude (f): 3100
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 3 SEP 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 71 71 NE 1 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 71 71 NE 1 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 72 72 NE 1 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 77 77 W 0 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 80 81 W 0 2885 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 82 85 W 0 3065 3100 0 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 83 88 W 7 4208 3100 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 83 90 W 7 5850 3515 415 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 83 90 W 7 5850 3515 415 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 84 91 W 7 6832 4177 1077 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 85 91 W 7 6832 4177 1077 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 85 89 W 7 4854 3205 105 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 83 85 W 7 3065 3100 0 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 82 82 W 7 2952 3100 0 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 79 79 W 7 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 80 80 NW 6 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 77 77 NW 6 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 78 78 NW 6 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 78 78 N 7 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 78 78 N 7 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 77 77 N 7 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 77 77 NE 7 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 77 77 NE 7 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 77 77 NE 7 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 74 74 NE 6 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 71 71 NE 6 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 72 72 NE 6 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 77 77 E 3 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 80 81 E 3 2885 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 82 85 E 3 3065 3100 0 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 83 88 S 2 4208 3100 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 83 90 S 2 5850 3515 415 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 83 90 S 2 5850 3515 415 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 84 91 W 8 6832 4177 1077 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 85 91 W 8 6832 4177 1077 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 85 89 W 8 4854 3205 105 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 82 84 W 8 3023 3100 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 80 80 W 8 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 76 76 W 8 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 77 77 W 8 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 74 74 W 8 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 75 75 W 8 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 75 75 NW 8 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 74 74 NW 8 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 73 73 NW 8 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 73 73 NW 8 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 73 73 NW 8 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 72 72 NW 8 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 69 69 NW 9 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 64 64 NW 9 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 65 65 NW 9 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 72 72 NW 9 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 77 79 NW 9 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 79 83 NW 9 2988 3100 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 81 86 NW 14 3208 3100 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 81 88 NW 14 4208 3100 0 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 82 89 NW 14 4854 3205 105 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 83 90 NW 14 5850 3515 415 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 85 91 NW 14 6832 4177 1077 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 84 88 NW 14 4208 3100 0 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 81 83 NW 15 2988 3100 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 78 78 NW 15 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 74 74 NW 15 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 74 74 NW 15 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 71 71 NW 15 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 73 73 NW 15 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 72 72 NE 13 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 72 72 NE 13 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 70 70 NE 13 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 70 70 NE 13 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 70 70 NE 13 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 69 69 NE 13 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 65 65 N 7 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 60 60 N 7 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 61 61 N 7 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 67 67 N 7 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 71 72 N 7 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 74 77 N 7 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 75 80 W 7 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 75 82 W 7 2952 3100 0 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 76 83 W 7 2988 3100 0 Blue 2
2 PM Mon 77 84 W 7 3023 3100 0 Blue 3
3 PM Mon 79 85 W 7 3065 3100 0 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 79 83 W 7 2988 3100 0 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 76 78 W 7 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 74 74 W 7 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 70 70 W 7 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 71 71 W 7 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 68 68 W 7 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 69 69 W 7 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 69 69 E 3 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 69 69 E 3 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 68 68 E 3 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 67 67 E 3 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 67 67 E 3 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 67 67 E 3 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 64 64 E 3 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 60 60 E 3 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 61 E 3 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 66 66 E 3 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 69 70 E 3 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 71 73 E 3 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 72 77 W 5 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 73 80 W 5 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 73 80 W 5 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 74 81 W 5 2885 3100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 75 81 W 5 2885 3100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 75 79 W 5 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 73 75 W 5 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 71 71 W 5 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 68 68 W 5 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 69 69 W 5 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 66 66 W 5 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 67 67 W 5 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 67 67 SW 3 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 67 67 SW 3 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 66 66 SW 3 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 66 66 SW 3 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 65 65 SW 3 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 65 SW 3 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 62 62 SE 5 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 59 SE 5 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 59 SE 5 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 63 63 SE 5 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 66 67 SE 5 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 68 70 SE 5 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 69 74 W 8 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 69 76 W 8 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 69 76 W 8 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 70 77 W 8 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 71 77 W 8 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 71 75 W 8 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 69 71 W 8 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 68 68 W 8 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 65 65 W 8 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 66 66 W 8 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 64 64 W 8 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 65 65 W 8 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 65 65 NE 6 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 NE 6 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 64 64 NE 6 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 64 64 NE 6 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 63 63 NE 6 2546 3100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 63 63 NE 6 2546 3100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com