Detailed Predictions for: Dunlap
Launch Altitude (f): 4600
LZ Altitude (f): 2200
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 10 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
7 AM Wed 30 30 NE 8 4127 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 31 31 NE 8 4127 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 35 35 NE 8 4991 4600 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 36 37 NW 4 5358 4802 202 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 37 38 NW 4 5541 4987 387 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 37 39 NW 4 5723 5170 570 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 37 38 W 4 5541 4987 387 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 37 38 W 4 5541 4987 387 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 36 36 W 4 5175 4610 10 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 35 35 W 5 4991 4600 0 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 34 34 W 5 4804 4600 0 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 33 33 W 5 4611 4600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 32 32 NW 2 4128 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 31 31 NW 2 4127 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 31 31 NW 2 4127 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 31 31 N 9 4127 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 31 31 N 9 4127 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 31 31 N 9 4127 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 31 31 E 5 4127 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 31 31 E 5 4127 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 31 31 E 5 4127 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 30 30 E 5 4127 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 30 30 E 5 4127 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 29 29 E 5 4127 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 29 29 E 5 4127 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 33 33 E 5 4611 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 47 48 E 5 7943 7943 3343 White 15
10 AM Thu 49 52 SW 4 8802 8802 4202 White 19
11 AM Thu 51 55 SW 4 9448 9448 4848 White 22
12 Noon Thu 51 56 SW 4 9663 9663 5063 White 23
1 PM Thu 52 56 S 4 9663 9663 5063 White 23
2 PM Thu 51 54 S 4 9232 9232 4632 White 21
3 PM Thu 51 53 S 4 9016 9016 4416 White 20
4 PM Thu 48 49 SW 6 8158 8158 3558 White 16
5 PM Thu 47 47 SW 6 7727 7727 3127 White 14
6 PM Thu 45 45 SW 6 7294 7016 2416 White 12
7 PM Thu 44 44 SW 6 7078 6291 1691 White 11
8 PM Thu 41 41 SW 6 6426 5534 934 White 8
9 PM Thu 42 42 SW 6 6644 5715 1115 White 9
10 PM Thu 42 42 NE 5 6644 5715 1115 White 9
11 PM Thu 42 42 NE 5 6644 5715 1115 White 9
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 NE 5 6644 5715 1115 White 9
1 AM Fri 43 43 NE 5 6861 5897 1297 White 10
2 AM Fri 42 42 NE 5 6644 5715 1115 White 9
3 AM Fri 42 42 NE 5 6644 5715 1115 White 9
4 AM Fri 41 41 NE 7 6426 5534 934 White 8
5 AM Fri 40 40 NE 7 5906 5352 752 Blue 7
6 AM Fri 39 39 NE 7 5723 5170 570 Blue 6
7 AM Fri 39 39 NE 7 5723 5170 570 Blue 6
8 AM Fri 41 41 NE 7 6426 5534 934 White 8
9 AM Fri 50 51 NE 7 8588 8588 3988 White 18
10 AM Fri 51 52 SW 4 8802 8802 4202 White 19
11 AM Fri 52 53 SW 4 9016 9016 4416 White 20
12 Noon Fri 52 53 SW 4 9016 9016 4416 White 20
1 PM Fri 53 54 SW 4 9232 9232 4632 White 21
2 PM Fri 52 53 SW 4 9016 9016 4416 White 20
3 PM Fri 52 52 SW 4 8802 8802 4202 White 19
4 PM Fri 50 50 SW 3 8373 8373 3773 White 17
5 PM Fri 48 48 SW 3 7943 7943 3343 White 15
6 PM Fri 47 47 SW 3 7727 7727 3127 White 14
7 PM Fri 46 46 SW 3 7511 7511 2911 White 13
8 PM Fri 44 44 SW 3 7078 6291 1691 White 11
9 PM Fri 44 44 SW 3 7078 6291 1691 White 11
10 PM Fri 45 45 E 6 7294 7016 2416 White 12
11 PM Fri 44 44 E 6 7078 6291 1691 White 11
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 E 6 7078 6291 1691 White 11
1 AM Sat 45 45 E 6 7294 7016 2416 White 12
2 AM Sat 45 45 E 6 7294 7016 2416 White 12
3 AM Sat 45 45 E 6 7294 7016 2416 White 12
4 AM Sat 44 44 E 3 7078 6291 1691 White 11
5 AM Sat 43 43 E 3 6861 5897 1297 White 10
6 AM Sat 42 42 E 3 6644 5715 1115 White 9
7 AM Sat 42 42 E 3 6644 5715 1115 White 9
8 AM Sat 44 44 E 3 7078 6291 1691 White 11
9 AM Sat 49 49 E 3 8158 8158 3558 White 16
10 AM Sat 50 51 SW 4 8588 8588 3988 White 18
11 AM Sat 51 52 SW 4 8802 8802 4202 White 19
12 Noon Sat 50 51 SW 4 8588 8588 3988 White 18
1 PM Sat 51 52 SW 4 8802 8802 4202 White 19
2 PM Sat 50 51 SW 4 8588 8588 3988 White 18
3 PM Sat 50 50 SW 4 8373 8373 3773 White 17
4 PM Sat 48 48 W 3 7943 7943 3343 White 15
5 PM Sat 46 46 W 3 7511 7511 2911 White 13
6 PM Sat 44 44 W 3 7078 6291 1691 White 11
7 PM Sat 43 43 W 3 6861 5897 1297 White 10
8 PM Sat 41 41 W 3 6426 5534 934 White 8
9 PM Sat 41 41 W 3 6426 5534 934 White 8
10 PM Sat 42 42 E 4 6644 5715 1115 White 9
11 PM Sat 41 41 E 4 6426 5534 934 White 8
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 E 4 6644 5715 1115 White 9
1 AM Sun 42 42 E 4 6644 5715 1115 White 9
2 AM Sun 42 42 E 4 6644 5715 1115 White 9
3 AM Sun 42 42 E 4 6644 5715 1115 White 9
4 AM Sun 41 41 E 3 6426 5534 934 White 8
5 AM Sun 40 40 E 3 5906 5352 752 Blue 7
6 AM Sun 39 39 E 3 5723 5170 570 Blue 6
7 AM Sun 39 39 E 3 5723 5170 570 Blue 6
8 AM Sun 42 43 E 3 6861 5897 1297 White 10
9 AM Sun 51 53 E 3 9016 9016 4416 White 20
10 AM Sun 52 56 SW 3 9663 9663 5063 White 23
11 AM Sun 53 58 SW 3 10088 10088 5488 White 25
12 Noon Sun 53 58 SW 3 10088 10088 5488 White 25
1 PM Sun 54 59 SW 3 10298 10298 5698 White 26
2 PM Sun 53 57 SW 3 9877 9877 5277 White 24
3 PM Sun 53 55 SW 3 9448 9448 4848 White 22
4 PM Sun 50 51 W 3 8588 8588 3988 White 18
5 PM Sun 49 49 W 3 8158 8158 3558 White 16
6 PM Sun 47 47 W 3 7727 7727 3127 White 14
7 PM Sun 46 46 W 3 7511 7511 2911 White 13
8 PM Sun 43 43 W 3 6861 5897 1297 White 10
9 PM Sun 44 44 W 3 7078 6291 1691 White 11
10 PM Sun 44 44 E 2 7078 6291 1691 White 11
11 PM Sun 44 44 E 2 7078 6291 1691 White 11
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 E 2 7078 6291 1691 White 11
1 AM Mon 45 45 E 2 7294 7016 2416 White 12
2 AM Mon 44 44 E 2 7078 6291 1691 White 11
3 AM Mon 44 44 E 2 7078 6291 1691 White 11
4 AM Mon 43 43 E 3 6861 5897 1297 White 10
5 AM Mon 42 42 E 3 6644 5715 1115 White 9
6 AM Mon 41 41 E 3 6426 5534 934 White 8
7 AM Mon 41 41 E 3 6426 5534 934 White 8
8 AM Mon 43 44 E 3 7078 6291 1691 White 11
9 AM Mon 51 53 E 3 9016 9016 4416 White 20
10 AM Mon 52 56 SW 3 9663 9663 5063 White 23
11 AM Mon 53 58 SW 3 10088 10088 5488 White 25
12 Noon Mon 53 58 SW 3 10088 10088 5488 White 25
1 PM Mon 54 59 SW 3 10298 10298 5698 White 26
2 PM Mon 53 57 SW 3 9877 9877 5277 White 24
3 PM Mon 53 55 SW 3 9448 9448 4848 White 22
4 PM Mon 50 51 SW 8 8588 8588 3988 White 18
5 PM Mon 49 49 SW 8 8158 8158 3558 White 16
6 PM Mon 47 47 SW 8 7727 7727 3127 White 14
7 PM Mon 46 46 SW 8 7511 7511 2911 White 13
8 PM Mon 43 43 SW 8 6861 5897 1297 White 10
9 PM Mon 44 44 SW 8 7078 6291 1691 White 11
10 PM Mon 44 44 SW 12 7078 6291 1691 White 11
11 PM Mon 44 44 SW 12 7078 6291 1691 White 11
12 Midnight Tue 44 44 SW 12 7078 6291 1691 White 11
1 AM Tue 45 45 SW 12 7294 7016 2416 White 12
2 AM Tue 44 44 SW 12 7078 6291 1691 White 11
3 AM Tue 44 44 SW 12 7078 6291 1691 White 11
4 AM Tue 43 43 SW 13 6861 5897 1297 White 10
5 AM Tue 42 42 SW 13 6644 5715 1115 White 9
6 AM Tue 41 41 SW 13 6426 5534 934 White 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com