Detailed Predictions for: Dunlap
Launch Altitude (f): 4600
LZ Altitude (f): 2200
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 4 FEB 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
4 AM Sat 37 37 E 6 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 37 37 E 6 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 37 37 E 6 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 38 38 E 3 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 39 39 E 3 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 41 42 E 3 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 42 43 W 1 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 44 46 W 1 3766 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 45 48 W 1 5465 4600 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 46 48 W 6 5465 4600 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 47 49 W 6 6030 4600 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sat 47 48 W 6 5465 4600 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sat 47 47 W 6 4850 4600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 44 44 W 6 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 42 42 W 6 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 40 40 E 2 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 40 40 E 2 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 40 40 E 2 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 40 40 E 7 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 40 40 E 7 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 40 40 E 7 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 39 39 E 2 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 39 39 E 2 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 39 39 E 2 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 39 39 E 3 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 38 38 E 3 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 38 38 E 3 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 39 39 E 5 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 41 41 E 5 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 44 E 5 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 46 47 W 2 4850 4600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 48 50 W 2 6576 4835 235 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 50 52 W 2 7622 6000 1400 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 51 53 W 2 7826 6538 1938 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 51 52 W 2 7622 6000 1400 Blue 5
3 PM Sun 51 52 W 2 7622 6000 1400 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 50 50 W 3 6576 4835 235 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 48 48 W 3 5465 4600 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 45 45 W 3 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 44 44 E 2 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 42 42 E 2 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 42 42 E 2 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 42 42 E 2 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 42 42 E 2 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 E 2 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 43 43 E 2 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 43 43 E 2 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 42 E 2 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 42 E 2 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 42 42 E 2 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 42 42 E 2 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 43 43 E 2 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 45 E 2 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 47 47 E 2 4850 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 49 50 W 2 6576 4835 235 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 51 52 W 2 7622 6000 1400 Blue 5
12 Noon Mon 52 54 W 2 7944 7061 2461 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 52 53 W 2 7826 6538 1938 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 52 53 W 2 7826 6538 1938 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 51 51 W 2 7107 5445 845 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 50 50 NE 1 6576 4835 235 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 48 48 NE 1 5465 4600 0 Blue 1
6 PM Mon 47 47 NE 1 4850 4600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 46 46 NE 1 3766 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 46 46 NE 1 3766 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 46 46 NE 1 3766 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 46 46 E 2 3766 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 46 46 E 2 3766 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 E 2 3766 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 E 2 3766 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 E 2 3766 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 46 E 2 3766 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 47 SE 3 4850 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 SE 3 4850 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 SE 3 3766 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 46 SE 3 3766 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 46 46 SE 3 3766 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 46 46 SE 3 3766 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 46 46 SE 7 3766 4600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 46 46 SE 7 3766 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 46 46 SE 7 3766 4600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 46 46 SE 7 3766 4600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 46 46 SE 7 3766 4600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 45 45 SE 7 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 45 45 E 2 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 44 44 E 2 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 43 43 E 2 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 43 43 E 2 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 43 43 E 2 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 42 42 E 2 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 42 42 E 2 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 42 42 E 2 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 E 2 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 42 42 E 2 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 42 42 E 2 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 41 41 E 2 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 41 41 N 2 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 41 41 N 2 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 41 41 N 2 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 41 41 N 2 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 41 41 N 2 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 42 42 N 2 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 42 43 NW 1 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 43 44 NW 1 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 44 46 NW 1 3766 4600 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 44 45 NW 1 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 44 45 NW 1 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 44 44 NW 1 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 43 43 NW 6 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 43 43 NW 6 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 42 42 NW 6 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 41 41 NW 6 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 41 41 NW 6 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 41 41 NW 6 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 40 40 E 10 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 40 40 E 10 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 40 40 E 10 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 39 39 E 10 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 39 39 E 10 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 40 40 E 10 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 40 40 NE 8 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 39 39 NE 8 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 39 39 NE 8 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 NE 8 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 41 41 NE 8 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 44 45 NE 8 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 46 48 W 1 5465 4600 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 47 49 W 1 6030 4600 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 49 52 W 1 7622 6000 1400 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 49 51 W 1 7107 5445 845 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 50 52 W 1 7622 6000 1400 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 50 51 W 1 7107 5445 845 Blue 4
4 PM Thu 49 49 W 3 6030 4600 0 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 47 47 W 3 4850 4600 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 45 45 W 3 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 43 43 W 3 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 43 43 W 3 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 44 44 W 3 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 44 44 E 7 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 E 7 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 E 7 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 E 7 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 43 43 E 7 2618 4600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 42 42 E 7 2618 4600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com