Detailed Predictions for: Calabasas
Launch Altitude (f): 1640
LZ Altitude (f): 770
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 19 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 50 50 NE 15 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 49 49 NE 15 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 49 NE 15 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 50 50 NE 20 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 59 60 NE 20 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 69 72 NE 20 3744 2501 861 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 76 80 NE 11 6561 5691 4051 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 79 84 NE 11 7648 6789 5149 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 80 86 NE 11 8182 7328 5688 Blue 17
2 PM Fri 80 85 NW 4 7916 7059 5419 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 81 85 NW 4 7916 7059 5419 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 80 82 NW 4 7108 6243 4603 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 78 79 NW 13 6286 5412 3772 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 75 75 NW 13 5165 3709 2069 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 68 68 NW 13 2113 1699 59 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 63 63 W 12 1425 1640 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 58 58 W 12 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 55 W 12 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 53 53 NW 4 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 NW 4 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 46 NW 4 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 44 44 NE 3 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 44 NE 3 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 43 NE 3 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 NE 2 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 43 NE 2 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 43 43 NE 2 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 45 45 NE 6 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 56 NE 6 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 68 71 NE 6 3314 2110 470 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 75 79 W 5 6286 5412 3772 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 78 83 W 5 7379 6517 4877 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 80 86 W 5 8182 7328 5688 Blue 17
2 PM Sat 81 86 S 3 8182 7328 5688 Blue 17
3 PM Sat 81 85 S 3 7916 7059 5419 Blue 17
4 PM Sat 80 82 S 3 7108 6243 4603 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 78 79 W 3 6286 5412 3772 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 75 75 W 3 5165 3709 2069 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 68 68 W 3 2113 1699 59 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 62 62 W 3 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 57 57 W 3 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 53 53 W 3 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 52 52 SE 1 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 SE 1 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 44 SE 1 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 43 SE 1 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 SE 1 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 SE 1 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 NE 4 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 41 41 NE 4 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 41 NE 4 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 43 43 NE 4 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 55 NE 4 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 68 71 NE 4 3314 2110 470 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 76 80 S 4 6561 5691 4051 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 79 84 S 4 7648 6789 5149 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 81 87 S 4 8445 7595 5955 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 81 86 S 4 8182 7328 5688 Blue 17
3 PM Sun 82 86 S 4 8182 7328 5688 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 81 83 S 4 7379 6517 4877 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 79 80 W 5 6561 5691 4051 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 76 76 W 5 5448 4193 2553 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 69 69 W 5 2519 1836 196 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 64 64 W 5 1563 1640 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 59 59 W 5 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 55 55 W 5 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 53 NE 2 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 NE 2 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 46 NE 2 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 45 NE 2 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 44 NE 2 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 43 NE 2 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 44 NE 2 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 43 NE 2 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 43 43 NE 2 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 44 NE 2 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 53 54 NE 2 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 64 66 NE 2 1838 1640 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 70 73 S 5 4234 2909 1269 Blue 5
12 Noon Mon 73 76 S 5 5448 4193 2553 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 74 78 S 5 6008 5132 3492 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 75 78 S 5 6008 5132 3492 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 75 78 S 5 6008 5132 3492 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 75 76 S 5 5448 4193 2553 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 72 72 SW 8 3744 2501 861 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 70 70 SW 8 2926 1973 333 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 64 64 SW 8 1563 1640 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 59 59 SW 8 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 54 SW 8 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 51 51 SW 8 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 50 SE 4 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 SE 4 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 43 43 SE 4 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 42 42 SE 4 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 42 SE 4 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 41 41 SE 4 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 41 41 NE 2 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 41 41 NE 2 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 40 40 NE 2 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 42 42 NE 2 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 51 52 NE 2 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 63 NE 2 1425 1640 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 67 70 NW 10 2926 1973 333 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 70 74 NW 10 4713 3292 1652 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 71 75 NW 10 5165 3709 2069 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 72 75 NW 10 5165 3709 2069 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 72 75 NW 10 5165 3709 2069 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 72 74 NW 10 4713 3292 1652 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 70 70 NW 10 2926 1973 333 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 68 68 NW 10 2113 1699 59 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 62 62 NW 10 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 57 57 NW 10 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 53 53 NW 10 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 50 NW 10 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 48 48 N 16 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 N 16 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 42 42 N 16 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 41 41 N 16 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 41 41 N 16 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 40 40 N 16 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 40 40 NE 12 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 40 40 NE 12 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 39 39 NE 12 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 41 41 NE 12 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 51 52 NE 12 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 62 64 NE 12 1563 1640 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 69 73 NE 12 4234 2909 1269 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 72 77 NE 12 5729 4665 3025 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 73 78 NE 12 6008 5132 3492 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 74 79 NE 12 6286 5412 3772 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 74 78 NE 12 6008 5132 3492 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 74 76 NE 12 5448 4193 2553 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 72 73 W 5 4234 2909 1269 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 70 70 W 5 2926 1973 333 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 63 63 W 5 1425 1640 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 59 59 W 5 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 54 54 W 5 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 51 51 W 5 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 50 NE 4 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 NE 4 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 44 44 NE 4 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 42 42 NE 4 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 42 42 NE 4 1345 1640 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 41 41 NE 4 1345 1640 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com