Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 3 SEP 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 65 65 W 7 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 66 66 W 7 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 67 67 W 7 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 70 70 S 1 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 72 74 S 1 6242 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 75 79 S 1 10163 8093 1813 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 78 83 NE 6 11744 10710 4430 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 81 88 NE 6 13365 12315 6035 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 84 91 NE 6 14821 13245 6965 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 87 93 NE 9 15732 14214 7934 Blue 16
3 PM Fri 88 93 NE 9 15732 14214 7934 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 89 92 NE 9 15282 13734 7454 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 88 89 NE 8 13863 12628 6348 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 87 87 NE 8 13011 12000 5720 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 84 84 NE 8 12065 11037 4757 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 81 81 S 3 11094 9493 3213 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 78 78 S 3 9567 7203 923 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 76 76 S 3 8160 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 74 74 W 6 6242 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 72 72 W 6 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 71 71 W 6 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 70 70 W 8 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 69 69 W 8 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 68 68 W 8 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 68 68 SW 7 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 69 69 SW 7 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 71 71 SW 7 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 73 73 S 3 5094 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 75 77 S 3 8947 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 78 82 S 3 11421 10080 3800 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 80 85 NW 0 12383 11361 5081 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 84 91 NW 0 14821 13245 6965 Blue 14
1 PM Sat 87 94 NW 0 16172 14682 8402 Blue 17
2 PM Sat 87 93 SW 2 15732 14214 7934 Blue 16
3 PM Sat 87 92 SW 2 15282 13734 7454 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 87 90 SW 2 14348 12937 6657 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 84 85 W 13 12383 11361 5081 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 80 80 W 13 10763 8883 2603 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 76 76 W 13 8160 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 72 72 SW 14 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 70 70 SW 14 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 69 69 SW 14 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 68 68 W 12 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 68 68 W 12 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 67 67 W 12 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 67 67 SW 13 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 65 65 SW 13 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 64 64 SW 13 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 64 64 SW 14 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 66 66 SW 14 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 69 69 SW 14 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 72 72 SW 14 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 75 77 SW 14 8947 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 78 82 SW 14 11421 10080 3800 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 80 85 W 10 12383 11361 5081 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 81 88 W 10 13365 12315 6035 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 82 89 W 10 13863 12628 6348 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 82 88 W 10 13365 12315 6035 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 82 87 W 10 13011 12000 5720 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 81 84 W 10 12065 11037 4757 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 80 81 SW 20 11094 9493 3213 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 78 78 SW 20 9567 7203 923 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 75 75 SW 20 7250 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 69 69 SW 20 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 68 68 SW 20 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 66 66 SW 20 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 67 67 SW 12 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 67 67 SW 12 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 66 66 SW 12 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 63 63 SW 12 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 61 61 SW 12 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 61 61 SW 12 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 61 61 SW 9 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 60 60 SW 9 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 61 61 SW 9 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 67 67 SW 9 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 70 72 SW 9 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 74 78 SW 9 9567 7203 923 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 75 80 SW 12 10763 8883 2603 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 76 83 SW 12 11744 10710 4430 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 77 84 SW 12 12065 11037 4757 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 79 85 SW 12 12383 11361 5081 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 78 83 SW 12 11744 10710 4430 Blue 6
4 PM Mon 77 80 SW 12 10763 8883 2603 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 75 76 SW 10 8160 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 74 74 SW 10 6242 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 70 70 SW 10 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 65 65 SW 10 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 64 64 SW 10 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 63 63 SW 10 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 63 63 S 5 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 63 63 S 5 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 62 62 S 5 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 60 60 S 5 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 58 58 S 5 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 58 S 5 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 58 58 SW 7 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 57 SW 7 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 58 SW 7 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 64 64 SW 7 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 67 69 SW 7 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 71 75 SW 7 7250 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 73 78 S 10 9567 7203 923 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 74 81 S 10 11094 9493 3213 Blue 4
1 PM Tue 75 82 S 10 11421 10080 3800 Blue 5
2 PM Tue 77 83 S 10 11744 10710 4430 Blue 6
3 PM Tue 76 81 S 10 11094 9493 3213 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 74 77 S 10 8947 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 73 74 SW 16 6242 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 71 71 SW 16 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 68 68 SW 16 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 63 63 SW 16 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 61 61 SW 16 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 60 SW 16 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 61 61 SW 9 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 SW 9 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 60 SW 9 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 57 SW 9 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 55 SW 9 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 SW 9 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 SW 8 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 54 SW 8 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 55 SW 8 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 60 SW 8 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 63 65 SW 8 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 67 71 SW 8 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 68 73 SW 8 5094 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 69 76 SW 8 8160 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 71 78 SW 8 9567 7203 923 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 72 78 SW 8 9567 7203 923 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 71 76 SW 8 8160 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 70 73 SW 8 5094 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 69 70 SW 18 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 67 67 SW 18 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 64 64 SW 18 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 59 59 SW 18 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 58 SW 18 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 56 SW 18 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 57 57 SW 9 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 SW 9 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 56 SW 9 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 54 SW 9 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 52 SW 9 4990 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 52 SW 9 4990 6280 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com