Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 15 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Mon 40 40 E 6 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 39 39 E 6 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 39 39 E 6 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 41 41 E 6 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 45 46 E 6 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 47 50 E 6 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 49 53 E 9 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 51 56 E 9 5779 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 53 58 E 9 6708 6280 0 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 54 58 E 10 6708 6280 0 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 56 59 E 10 7405 6280 0 Blue 2
4 PM Mon 55 57 E 10 6028 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 55 56 E 9 5779 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 53 53 E 9 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 50 50 E 9 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 48 48 SE 7 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 48 48 SE 7 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 47 47 SE 7 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 47 47 SE 7 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 SE 7 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 47 47 SE 7 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 SE 8 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 45 SE 8 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 46 46 SE 8 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 45 45 SE 8 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 SE 8 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 44 SE 8 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 46 46 SE 9 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 49 50 SE 9 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 51 53 SE 9 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 53 57 E 8 6028 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 55 60 E 8 8068 6280 0 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 56 61 E 8 8546 6683 403 Blue 4
2 PM Tue 58 63 E 9 9258 8018 1738 Blue 6
3 PM Tue 59 62 E 9 8904 7367 1087 Blue 5
4 PM Tue 58 60 E 9 8068 6280 0 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 58 58 E 7 6708 6280 0 Blue 1
6 PM Tue 56 56 E 7 5779 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 51 51 E 7 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 50 50 S 5 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 49 49 S 5 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 48 48 S 5 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 48 48 SE 4 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 SE 4 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 47 47 SE 4 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 47 S 6 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 S 6 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 S 6 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 S 7 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 S 7 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 S 7 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 47 S 7 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 51 S 7 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 53 55 S 7 5528 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 55 58 E 5 6708 6280 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 57 61 E 5 8546 6683 403 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 59 63 E 5 9258 8018 1738 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 60 64 E 5 9608 8513 2233 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 62 65 E 5 9954 8867 2587 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 61 63 E 5 9258 8018 1738 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 61 61 NE 5 8546 6683 403 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 58 58 NE 5 6708 6280 0 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 52 52 NE 5 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 51 51 NE 5 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 49 49 NE 5 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 49 49 NE 5 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 49 49 SW 2 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 SW 2 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 48 SW 2 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 47 SW 2 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 46 SW 2 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 46 SW 2 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 46 46 W 5 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 45 W 5 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 44 W 5 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 46 46 W 5 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 49 50 W 5 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 52 54 W 5 5276 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 54 58 W 5 6708 6280 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 56 61 W 5 8546 6683 403 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 57 62 W 5 8904 7367 1087 Blue 5
2 PM Thu 59 63 W 5 9258 8018 1738 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 60 63 W 5 9258 8018 1738 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 59 61 W 5 8546 6683 403 Blue 4
5 PM Thu 59 60 W 10 8068 6280 0 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 57 57 W 10 6028 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 52 52 W 10 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 50 50 W 10 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 49 49 W 10 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 48 48 W 10 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 48 48 W 9 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 W 9 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 47 47 W 9 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 47 47 W 9 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 46 W 9 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 46 W 9 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 46 N 5 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 N 5 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 44 44 N 5 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 47 47 N 5 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 51 N 5 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 53 56 N 5 5779 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 55 59 N 8 7405 6280 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 57 62 N 8 8904 7367 1087 Blue 5
1 PM Fri 59 64 N 8 9608 8513 2233 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 60 65 N 8 9954 8867 2587 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 62 65 N 8 9954 8867 2587 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 61 63 N 8 9258 8018 1738 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 61 62 N 6 8904 7367 1087 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 58 58 N 6 6708 6280 0 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 51 51 N 6 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 49 49 N 6 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 48 48 N 6 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 47 47 N 6 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 47 47 NW 3 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 47 47 NW 3 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 46 NW 3 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 46 NW 3 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 44 NW 3 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 NW 3 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 N 4 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 43 N 4 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 42 N 4 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 45 45 N 4 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 49 50 N 4 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 52 54 N 4 5276 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 54 58 E 6 6708 6280 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 57 62 E 6 8904 7367 1087 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 59 64 E 6 9608 8513 2233 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 60 64 E 6 9608 8513 2233 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 62 65 E 6 9954 8867 2587 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 61 63 E 6 9258 8018 1738 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 61 62 NE 5 8904 7367 1087 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 58 58 NE 5 6708 6280 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 51 51 NE 5 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 49 49 NE 5 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 48 48 NE 5 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 47 47 NE 5 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 47 47 N 4 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 47 47 N 4 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 46 46 N 4 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 46 N 4 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 44 N 4 5039 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 45 45 N 4 5039 6280 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com