Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 4 FEB 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
4 AM Sat 30 30 SE 15 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 29 29 SE 15 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 29 29 SE 15 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 30 30 SE 14 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 34 34 SE 14 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 37 38 SE 14 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 40 42 E 16 5795 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 41 43 E 16 6361 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 42 45 E 16 7442 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 43 45 E 15 7442 6280 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 43 45 E 15 7442 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 43 44 E 15 6910 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 42 42 E 10 5795 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 40 40 E 10 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 39 39 E 10 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 39 39 SE 8 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 38 38 SE 8 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 38 38 SE 8 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 38 38 SE 9 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 38 38 SE 9 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 38 38 SE 9 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 37 37 SE 9 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 37 37 SE 9 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 37 37 SE 9 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 37 37 SE 8 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 36 36 SE 8 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 36 36 SE 8 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 36 36 SE 8 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 39 39 SE 8 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 42 43 SE 8 6361 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 43 45 E 12 7442 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 44 46 E 12 7786 6348 68 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 45 47 E 12 7907 6887 607 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 45 47 E 13 7907 6887 607 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 45 46 E 13 7786 6348 68 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 45 46 E 13 7786 6348 68 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 44 44 E 13 6910 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 41 41 E 13 5208 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 39 39 E 13 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 39 39 SE 10 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 38 38 SE 10 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 38 38 SE 10 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 38 38 SE 7 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 37 37 SE 7 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 37 37 SE 7 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 36 36 SE 7 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 36 36 SE 7 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 36 36 SE 7 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 36 36 S 5 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 35 35 S 5 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 35 35 S 5 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 36 36 S 5 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 39 39 S 5 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 42 43 S 5 6361 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 45 46 E 9 7786 6348 68 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 45 47 E 9 7907 6887 607 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 46 48 E 9 8027 7411 1131 Blue 2
1 PM Mon 47 49 E 9 8148 7777 1497 Blue 3
2 PM Mon 47 48 E 9 8027 7411 1131 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 47 47 E 9 7907 6887 607 Blue 1
4 PM Mon 46 46 E 8 7786 6348 68 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 44 44 E 8 6910 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 41 41 E 8 5208 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 41 41 E 8 5208 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 41 41 E 8 5208 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 41 41 E 8 5208 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 41 41 SE 6 5208 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 40 40 SE 6 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 40 40 SE 6 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 39 39 SE 6 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 39 39 SE 6 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 39 39 SE 6 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 39 39 SW 2 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 38 38 SW 2 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 38 38 SW 2 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 38 38 SW 2 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 40 40 SW 2 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 42 42 SW 2 5795 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 43 44 E 9 6910 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 44 45 E 9 7442 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 44 45 E 9 7442 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 44 45 E 9 7442 6280 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 44 45 E 9 7442 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 44 44 E 9 6910 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 43 43 E 5 6361 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 41 41 E 5 5208 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 38 38 E 5 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 38 38 E 5 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 38 38 E 5 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 38 38 E 5 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 38 38 E 6 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 37 37 E 6 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 37 37 E 6 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 36 36 E 6 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 36 36 E 6 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 36 36 E 6 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 36 36 N 7 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 35 35 N 7 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 35 35 N 7 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 36 36 N 7 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 39 39 N 7 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 42 42 N 7 5795 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 44 45 N 10 7442 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 44 45 N 10 7442 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 46 47 N 10 7907 6887 607 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 46 47 N 10 7907 6887 607 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 46 47 N 10 7907 6887 607 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 46 46 N 10 7786 6348 68 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 45 45 NE 13 7442 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 43 43 NE 13 6361 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 41 41 NE 13 5208 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 41 41 NE 13 5208 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 41 41 NE 13 5208 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 40 40 NE 13 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 40 40 NE 10 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 40 40 NE 10 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 40 40 NE 10 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 39 39 NE 10 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 39 39 NE 10 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 39 39 NE 10 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 39 39 N 7 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 38 38 N 7 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 38 38 N 7 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 39 39 N 7 4921 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 42 N 7 5795 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 47 N 7 7907 6887 607 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 48 50 N 10 8268 7898 1618 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 49 52 N 10 8506 8138 1858 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 50 53 N 10 8621 8258 1978 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 51 54 N 10 8737 8378 2098 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 51 53 N 10 8621 8258 1978 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 51 52 N 10 8506 8138 1858 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 50 50 N 12 8268 7898 1618 Blue 4
5 PM Thu 48 48 N 12 8027 7411 1131 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 45 45 N 12 7442 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 45 45 N 12 7442 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 45 45 N 12 7442 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 45 45 N 12 7442 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 45 45 N 8 7442 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 N 8 6910 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 N 8 6910 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 N 8 6361 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 43 43 N 8 6361 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 43 43 N 8 6361 6280 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com