Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 10 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
7 AM Wed 28 28 W 20 4894 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 31 32 W 20 5639 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 34 36 W 20 7520 6280 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 35 38 W 21 8347 6760 480 White 4
11 AM Wed 37 41 W 21 9007 8794 2514 White 7
12 Noon Wed 38 42 W 21 9228 9120 2840 White 8
1 PM Wed 41 44 W 21 9669 9484 3204 White 10
2 PM Wed 40 43 W 21 9449 9302 3022 White 9
3 PM Wed 41 42 W 21 9228 9120 2840 White 8
4 PM Wed 40 40 W 22 8788 8151 1871 White 6
5 PM Wed 38 38 W 22 8347 6760 480 White 4
6 PM Wed 35 35 W 22 6789 6280 0 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 34 34 W 17 6010 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 34 34 W 17 6010 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 34 34 W 17 6010 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 33 33 W 11 5825 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 33 33 W 11 5825 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 33 33 W 11 5825 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 31 31 W 8 5454 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 31 31 W 8 5454 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 31 31 W 8 5454 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 30 30 W 7 5267 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 29 29 W 7 5081 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 29 29 W 7 5081 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 30 30 W 3 5267 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 35 36 W 3 7520 6280 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 38 40 W 3 8788 8151 1871 White 6
10 AM Thu 40 43 NE 6 9449 9302 3022 White 9
11 AM Thu 41 45 NE 6 9890 9666 3386 White 11
12 Noon Thu 43 48 NE 6 10535 10205 3925 White 14
1 PM Thu 47 51 NE 6 11176 10736 4456 White 17
2 PM Thu 46 49 NE 6 10749 10382 4102 White 15
3 PM Thu 47 49 NE 6 10749 10382 4102 White 15
4 PM Thu 46 46 NE 4 10106 9848 3568 White 12
5 PM Thu 45 45 NE 4 9890 9666 3386 White 11
6 PM Thu 42 42 NE 4 9228 9120 2840 White 8
7 PM Thu 41 41 E 3 9007 8794 2514 White 7
8 PM Thu 41 41 E 3 9007 8794 2514 White 7
9 PM Thu 41 41 E 3 9007 8794 2514 White 7
10 PM Thu 41 41 SE 3 9007 8794 2514 White 7
11 PM Thu 41 41 SE 3 9007 8794 2514 White 7
12 Midnight Fri 40 40 SE 3 8788 8151 1871 White 6
1 AM Fri 39 39 SE 3 8567 7475 1195 White 5
2 AM Fri 39 39 SE 3 8567 7475 1195 White 5
3 AM Fri 39 39 SE 3 8567 7475 1195 White 5
4 AM Fri 38 38 S 3 8347 6760 480 White 4
5 AM Fri 37 37 S 3 8127 6280 0 White 3
6 AM Fri 37 37 S 3 8127 6280 0 White 3
7 AM Fri 38 38 S 3 8347 6760 480 White 4
8 AM Fri 41 42 S 3 9228 9120 2840 White 8
9 AM Fri 44 46 S 3 10106 9848 3568 White 12
10 AM Fri 45 48 N 3 10535 10205 3925 White 14
11 AM Fri 47 51 N 3 11176 10736 4456 White 17
12 Noon Fri 48 52 N 3 11387 10912 4632 White 18
1 PM Fri 51 54 N 3 11810 11691 5411 White 20
2 PM Fri 50 53 N 3 11600 11275 4995 White 19
3 PM Fri 51 52 N 3 11387 10912 4632 White 18
4 PM Fri 50 50 W 4 10963 10559 4279 White 16
5 PM Fri 49 49 W 4 10749 10382 4102 White 15
6 PM Fri 46 46 W 4 10106 9848 3568 White 12
7 PM Fri 45 45 W 4 9890 9666 3386 White 11
8 PM Fri 44 44 W 4 9669 9484 3204 White 10
9 PM Fri 44 44 W 4 9669 9484 3204 White 10
10 PM Fri 44 44 SW 9 9669 9484 3204 White 10
11 PM Fri 44 44 SW 9 9669 9484 3204 White 10
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 SW 9 9449 9302 3022 White 9
1 AM Sat 42 42 SW 9 9228 9120 2840 White 8
2 AM Sat 42 42 SW 9 9228 9120 2840 White 8
3 AM Sat 42 42 SW 9 9228 9120 2840 White 8
4 AM Sat 41 41 W 7 9007 8794 2514 White 7
5 AM Sat 40 40 W 7 8788 8151 1871 White 6
6 AM Sat 40 40 W 7 8788 8151 1871 White 6
7 AM Sat 40 40 W 7 8788 8151 1871 White 6
8 AM Sat 42 42 W 7 9228 9120 2840 White 8
9 AM Sat 44 45 W 7 9890 9666 3386 White 11
10 AM Sat 44 47 W 14 10320 10027 3747 White 13
11 AM Sat 45 49 W 14 10749 10382 4102 White 15
12 Noon Sat 45 49 W 14 10749 10382 4102 White 15
1 PM Sat 47 50 W 14 10963 10559 4279 White 16
2 PM Sat 46 49 W 14 10749 10382 4102 White 15
3 PM Sat 47 48 W 14 10535 10205 3925 White 14
4 PM Sat 46 46 W 14 10106 9848 3568 White 12
5 PM Sat 44 44 W 14 9669 9484 3204 White 10
6 PM Sat 41 41 W 14 9007 8794 2514 White 7
7 PM Sat 40 40 W 14 8788 8151 1871 White 6
8 PM Sat 40 40 W 14 8788 8151 1871 White 6
9 PM Sat 40 40 W 14 8788 8151 1871 White 6
10 PM Sat 39 39 W 10 8567 7475 1195 White 5
11 PM Sat 39 39 W 10 8567 7475 1195 White 5
12 Midnight Sun 39 39 W 10 8567 7475 1195 White 5
1 AM Sun 37 37 W 10 8127 6280 0 White 3
2 AM Sun 37 37 W 10 8127 6280 0 White 3
3 AM Sun 37 37 W 10 8127 6280 0 White 3
4 AM Sun 36 36 N 3 7520 6280 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sun 35 35 N 3 6789 6280 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sun 35 35 N 3 6789 6280 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sun 36 36 N 3 7520 6280 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sun 41 42 N 3 9228 9120 2840 White 8
9 AM Sun 44 46 N 3 10106 9848 3568 White 12
10 AM Sun 46 49 NE 5 10749 10382 4102 White 15
11 AM Sun 48 52 NE 5 11387 10912 4632 White 18
12 Noon Sun 50 54 NE 5 11810 11691 5411 White 20
1 PM Sun 54 58 NE 5 12636 12636 6356 White 24
2 PM Sun 53 56 NE 5 12224 12224 5944 White 22
3 PM Sun 54 55 NE 5 12017 12017 5737 White 21
4 PM Sun 53 53 N 7 11600 11275 4995 White 19
5 PM Sun 51 51 N 7 11176 10736 4456 White 17
6 PM Sun 48 48 N 7 10535 10205 3925 White 14
7 PM Sun 47 47 N 7 10320 10027 3747 White 13
8 PM Sun 46 46 N 7 10106 9848 3568 White 12
9 PM Sun 46 46 N 7 10106 9848 3568 White 12
10 PM Sun 46 46 NE 4 10106 9848 3568 White 12
11 PM Sun 46 46 NE 4 10106 9848 3568 White 12
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 NE 4 9890 9666 3386 White 11
1 AM Mon 44 44 NE 4 9669 9484 3204 White 10
2 AM Mon 43 43 NE 4 9449 9302 3022 White 9
3 AM Mon 43 43 NE 4 9449 9302 3022 White 9
4 AM Mon 42 42 NE 4 9228 9120 2840 White 8
5 AM Mon 41 41 NE 4 9007 8794 2514 White 7
6 AM Mon 41 41 NE 4 9007 8794 2514 White 7
7 AM Mon 42 42 NE 4 9228 9120 2840 White 8
8 AM Mon 46 47 NE 4 10320 10027 3747 White 13
9 AM Mon 49 51 NE 4 11176 10736 4456 White 17
10 AM Mon 51 55 E 4 12017 12017 5737 White 21
11 AM Mon 53 58 E 4 12636 12636 6356 White 24
12 Noon Mon 54 59 E 4 12842 12842 6562 White 25
1 PM Mon 58 62 E 4 13456 13456 7176 White 28
2 PM Mon 57 60 E 4 13046 13046 6766 White 26
3 PM Mon 57 59 E 4 12842 12842 6562 White 25
4 PM Mon 57 58 E 3 12636 12636 6356 White 24
5 PM Mon 55 55 E 3 12017 12017 5737 White 21
6 PM Mon 51 51 E 3 11176 10736 4456 White 17
7 PM Mon 50 50 E 3 10963 10559 4279 White 16
8 PM Mon 49 49 E 3 10749 10382 4102 White 15
9 PM Mon 49 49 E 3 10749 10382 4102 White 15
10 PM Mon 49 49 SE 2 10749 10382 4102 White 15
11 PM Mon 49 49 SE 2 10749 10382 4102 White 15
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 SE 2 10535 10205 3925 White 14
1 AM Tue 47 47 SE 2 10320 10027 3747 White 13
2 AM Tue 46 46 SE 2 10106 9848 3568 White 12
3 AM Tue 46 46 SE 2 10106 9848 3568 White 12
4 AM Tue 45 45 SE 3 9890 9666 3386 White 11
5 AM Tue 44 44 SE 3 9669 9484 3204 White 10
6 AM Tue 44 44 SE 3 9669 9484 3204 White 10

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com