Detailed Predictions for: Bates Beach
Launch Altitude (f): 50
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 3 SEP 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 51 31 SE 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 31 SE 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 31 SE 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 33 W 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 57 37 W 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 40 W 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 62 45 SW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 64 48 SW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 66 51 SW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 66 50 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 65 48 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 66 48 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 63 44 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 62 42 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 60 40 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 57 37 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 55 35 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 35 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 34 NW 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 34 NW 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 35 NW 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 34 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 33 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 31 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 31 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 31 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 31 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 33 SE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 37 SE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 60 40 SE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 62 47 SW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 64 51 SW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 66 53 SW 6 861 328 278 White 2
2 PM Sat 66 53 W 9 861 328 278 White 2
3 PM Sat 65 51 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 66 50 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 64 46 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 63 43 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 62 42 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 59 39 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 58 38 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 57 37 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 57 37 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 57 37 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 58 38 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 37 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 36 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 35 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 35 NE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 35 NE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 55 35 NE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 36 NE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 38 NE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 60 40 NE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 62 47 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 62 49 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 64 51 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 64 51 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 63 49 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 64 48 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 62 44 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 61 41 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 60 40 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 38 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 57 37 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 36 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 36 E 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 36 E 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 36 E 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 36 E 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 35 E 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 34 E 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 34 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 34 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 34 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 35 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 36 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 37 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 58 43 SW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 59 46 SW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 60 47 SW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 60 47 SW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 59 45 SW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 60 44 SW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 58 40 SW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 58 38 SW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 57 37 SW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 55 35 SW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 34 SW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 34 SW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 53 33 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 53 33 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 34 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 53 33 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 53 33 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 32 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 32 E 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 32 E 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 32 E 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 34 E 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 38 E 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 41 E 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 63 48 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 65 52 SW 7 643 328 278 White 1
1 PM Tue 67 54 SW 7 918 328 278 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 67 54 SW 7 918 328 278 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 66 52 SW 7 643 328 278 White 1
4 PM Tue 67 51 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 64 46 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 63 43 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 60 40 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 57 37 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 55 35 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 55 35 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 54 34 S 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 34 S 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 35 S 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 34 S 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 33 S 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 31 S 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 31 SE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 31 SE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 31 SE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 33 SE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 37 SE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 40 SE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 63 48 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 64 51 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 67 54 SW 9 918 328 278 Blue 3
2 PM Wed 67 54 SW 9 918 328 278 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 66 52 SW 9 643 328 278 White 1
4 PM Wed 67 51 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 64 46 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 63 43 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 60 40 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 57 37 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 55 35 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 35 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 54 34 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 34 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 35 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 34 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 53 33 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 31 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com