Detailed Predictions for: Bates Beach
Launch Altitude (f): 50
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 NOV 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 52 32 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 31 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 30 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 30 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 32 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 37 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 61 43 SW 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 64 46 SW 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 66 48 SW 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 66 48 SW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 63 44 SW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 59 39 SW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 55 35 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 55 35 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 55 35 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 55 35 E 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 59 39 E 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 63 43 E 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 66 46 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 66 46 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 66 46 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 66 46 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 66 46 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 66 46 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 66 46 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 62 42 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 58 38 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 55 35 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 35 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 37 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 59 40 SE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 62 43 SE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 65 47 SE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 67 48 SE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 68 49 SE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 66 46 SE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 63 43 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 63 43 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 63 43 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 63 43 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 60 40 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 58 38 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 58 38 NW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 59 39 NW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 61 41 NW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 63 43 NW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 64 44 NW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 65 45 NW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 65 45 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 64 44 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 64 44 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 65 45 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 67 47 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 71 52 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 73 54 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 74 56 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 69 51 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 58 40 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 57 38 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 56 36 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 56 36 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 56 36 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 57 37 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 58 38 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 61 41 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 63 43 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 64 44 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 65 45 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 65 45 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 64 44 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 63 43 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 61 41 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 61 41 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 62 42 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 65 45 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 68 48 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 72 52 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 75 56 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 76 58 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 77 59 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 77 60 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 75 57 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 74 55 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 72 53 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 71 51 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 69 49 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 68 48 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 67 47 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 66 46 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 64 44 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 63 43 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 61 41 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 40 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 39 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 38 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 38 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 39 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 61 41 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 64 44 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 67 47 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 70 50 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 73 54 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 75 57 W 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 76 59 W 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 76 59 W 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 75 57 W 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 73 55 W 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 72 53 W 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 70 50 W 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 68 48 W 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 67 47 W 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 66 46 W 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 64 44 W 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 63 43 W 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 61 41 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 60 40 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 39 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 38 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 37 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 37 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 38 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 59 39 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 62 42 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 64 44 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 67 47 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 69 50 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 69 50 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 69 51 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 69 51 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 69 51 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 68 49 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 67 47 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 66 46 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 65 45 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 64 44 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 63 43 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 62 42 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 62 42 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 61 41 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 60 40 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 59 39 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 58 38 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 37 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 57 37 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com