Detailed Predictions for: Bates Beach
Launch Altitude (f): 50
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

21 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 39 19 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 38 18 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 38 18 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 39 19 SW 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 24 SW 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 50 30 SW 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 56 37 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 59 41 SW 5 349 328 278 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 59 41 SW 5 349 328 278 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 57 39 W 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 54 35 W 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 52 32 W 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 51 31 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 52 32 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 54 34 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 57 37 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 59 39 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 59 39 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 60 40 N 7 329 328 278 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 60 40 N 7 329 328 278 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 40 N 7 329 328 278 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 60 40 N 7 329 328 278 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 59 39 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 36 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 31 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 26 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 23 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 24 NE 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 28 NE 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 53 33 NE 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 38 W 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 59 40 W 2 329 328 278 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 59 41 W 2 349 328 278 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 59 41 NW 3 349 328 278 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 60 41 NW 3 349 328 278 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 61 41 NW 3 349 328 278 Blue 1
4 PM Mon 62 42 N 9 368 328 278 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 62 42 N 9 368 328 278 Blue 2
6 PM Mon 61 41 N 9 349 328 278 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 60 40 N 9 329 328 278 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 58 38 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 35 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 53 33 N 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 51 31 N 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 49 29 N 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 48 28 N 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 28 N 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 48 28 N 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 28 N 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 28 N 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 28 N 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 30 N 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 33 N 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 38 N 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 42 SW 3 368 328 278 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 64 46 SW 3 445 387 337 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 65 47 SW 3 464 406 356 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 65 47 SW 3 464 406 356 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 64 46 SW 3 445 387 337 Blue 6
3 PM Tue 62 43 SW 3 387 329 279 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 59 39 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 56 36 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 54 34 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 54 34 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 55 35 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 38 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 59 39 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 59 39 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 36 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 34 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 31 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 30 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 28 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 47 27 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 27 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 28 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 30 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 53 33 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 56 37 SW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 59 41 SW 2 349 328 278 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 62 44 SW 2 406 348 298 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 64 46 SW 2 445 387 337 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 65 46 SW 2 445 387 337 Blue 6
3 PM Wed 65 46 SW 2 445 387 337 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 63 43 NW 2 387 329 279 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 62 42 NW 2 368 328 278 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 59 39 NW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 56 36 NW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 54 34 NW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 51 31 NW 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 49 29 W 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 48 28 W 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 28 W 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 29 W 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 30 W 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 31 W 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 33 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 34 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 35 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 35 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 36 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 57 37 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 57 37 NW 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 58 38 NW 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 60 41 NW 12 349 328 278 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 61 41 NW 12 349 328 278 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 61 41 NW 12 349 328 278 Blue 1
3 PM Thu 61 41 NW 12 349 328 278 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 60 40 NW 8 329 328 278 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 59 39 NW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 58 38 NW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 56 36 NW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 55 35 NW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 33 NW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 51 31 NW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 30 NW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 29 NW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 28 NW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 28 NW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 28 NW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 29 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 29 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 30 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 32 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 33 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 34 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 56 37 W 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 57 39 W 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 59 41 W 6 349 328 278 Blue 1
1 PM Fri 60 42 W 6 368 328 278 Blue 2
2 PM Fri 61 42 W 6 368 328 278 Blue 2
3 PM Fri 61 41 W 6 349 328 278 Blue 1
4 PM Fri 61 41 N 9 349 328 278 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 59 39 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 57 37 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 55 35 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 52 32 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 49 29 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 47 27 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 45 25 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 24 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 43 23 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 43 23 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 24 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com