Detailed Predictions for: Bates Beach
Launch Altitude (f): 50
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 11 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
7 AM Thu 42 22 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 47 28 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 53 35 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 42 S 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 60 45 S 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 61 46 S 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 62 47 W 7 389 328 278 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 62 46 W 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 62 44 W 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 62 43 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 59 39 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 56 36 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 53 33 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 52 32 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 51 31 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 30 N 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 48 28 N 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 46 26 N 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 45 25 NE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 44 24 NE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 42 22 NE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 42 22 E 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 42 22 E 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 24 E 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 44 24 E 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 28 E 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 34 E 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 56 38 S 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 57 40 S 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 58 42 S 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 59 42 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 59 41 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 59 40 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 59 39 W 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 58 38 W 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 56 36 W 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 55 35 W 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 54 34 W 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 54 34 W 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 53 33 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 52 32 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 51 31 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 30 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 30 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 49 29 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 29 NW 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 29 NW 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 30 NW 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 30 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 33 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 37 NW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 41 W 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 59 42 W 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 60 44 W 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 61 44 NW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 60 43 NW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 61 43 NW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 61 42 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 58 38 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 55 35 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 53 33 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 51 31 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 50 30 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 30 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 28 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 26 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 25 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 25 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 23 N 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 23 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 23 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 25 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 26 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 33 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 40 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 65 48 SW 5 455 328 278 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 66 50 SW 5 1127 389 339 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 68 53 SW 5 1756 1104 1054 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 69 53 SW 5 1756 1104 1054 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 69 52 SW 5 1687 527 477 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 70 52 SW 5 1687 527 477 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 70 51 W 7 1597 454 404 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 66 46 W 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 62 42 W 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 58 38 W 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 56 36 W 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 35 W 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 34 N 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 51 31 N 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 29 N 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 28 N 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 27 N 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 25 N 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 25 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 24 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 28 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 28 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 37 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 64 46 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 71 55 S 3 1894 1683 1633 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 74 59 S 3 2173 1959 1909 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 75 60 S 3 2852 2027 1977 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 77 62 S 3 3636 2165 2115 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 77 61 S 3 3247 2096 2046 Blue 15
3 PM Mon 78 60 S 3 2852 2027 1977 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 77 58 W 4 2101 1890 1840 Blue 12
5 PM Mon 73 53 W 4 1756 1104 1054 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 69 49 W 4 530 328 278 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 65 45 W 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 62 42 W 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 61 41 W 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 60 40 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 57 37 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 34 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 52 32 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 32 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 29 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 29 NE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 28 NE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 31 NE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 32 NE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 39 NE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 64 46 NE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 71 55 SW 3 1894 1683 1633 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 72 57 SW 3 2032 1821 1771 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 74 59 SW 3 2173 1959 1909 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 75 60 SW 3 2852 2027 1977 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 75 59 SW 3 2173 1959 1909 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 76 58 SW 3 2101 1890 1840 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 76 57 W 5 2032 1821 1771 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 72 52 W 5 1687 527 477 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 67 47 W 5 389 328 278 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 64 44 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 62 42 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 61 41 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 40 N 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 57 37 N 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 34 N 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 53 33 N 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 32 N 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 30 N 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 30 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 29 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 31 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com