Detailed Predictions for: Bates Beach
Launch Altitude (f): 50
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 19 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 54 34 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 34 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 33 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 33 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 41 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 63 46 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 66 50 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 67 52 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 69 55 SW 5 368 328 278 Blue 2
2 PM Fri 70 55 SW 9 368 328 278 Blue 2
3 PM Fri 71 55 SW 9 368 328 278 Blue 2
4 PM Fri 71 54 SW 9 359 328 278 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 72 53 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 66 46 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 61 41 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 56 36 W 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 53 33 W 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 52 32 W 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 49 29 NE 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 49 29 NE 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 49 29 NE 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 26 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 47 27 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 26 N 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 28 N 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 28 N 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 47 27 N 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 47 27 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 35 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 57 40 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 59 43 W 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 60 45 W 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 62 48 W 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 63 48 SW 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 64 48 SW 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 64 47 SW 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 65 46 SW 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 61 41 SW 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 57 37 SW 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 53 33 SW 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 51 31 SW 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 51 31 SW 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 28 NE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 28 NE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 28 NE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 26 NE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 26 NE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 26 NE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 28 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 28 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 27 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 27 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 35 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 56 39 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 59 43 SW 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 60 45 SW 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 61 47 SW 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 63 48 SW 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 63 47 SW 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 63 46 SW 4 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 64 45 W 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 60 40 W 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 36 W 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 32 W 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 50 30 W 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 50 30 W 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 47 27 NE 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 47 27 NE 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 27 NE 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 25 NE 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 26 NE 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 25 NE 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 27 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 28 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 26 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 47 27 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 35 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 39 N 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 59 42 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 60 43 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 62 46 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 64 47 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 64 47 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 65 47 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 66 46 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 60 40 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 56 36 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 51 31 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 48 28 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 48 28 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 45 25 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 45 25 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 45 25 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 42 22 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 43 23 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 23 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 45 25 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 45 25 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 43 23 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 44 24 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 33 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 55 37 W 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 58 41 NW 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 59 43 NW 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 61 45 NW 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 63 46 NW 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 63 46 NW 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 64 46 NW 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 65 46 NW 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 59 39 NW 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 55 35 NW 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 50 30 NW 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 47 27 NW 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 47 27 NW 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 44 24 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 44 24 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 44 24 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 41 21 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 42 22 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 42 22 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 44 24 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 25 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 43 23 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 43 23 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 33 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 56 38 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 59 43 S 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 60 45 S 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 62 47 S 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 64 49 S 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 65 49 S 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 65 47 S 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 67 48 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 61 41 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 57 37 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 53 33 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 50 30 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 49 29 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 46 26 NW 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 46 26 NW 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 26 NW 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 44 24 NW 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 45 25 NW 1 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 44 24 NW 1 0 50 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com