Detailed Predictions for: Bates Beach
Launch Altitude (f): 50
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 56 36 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 37 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 36 NE 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 36 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 38 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 60 40 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 63 46 SW 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 66 50 SW 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 69 53 SW 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 70 54 W 16 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 71 54 W 16 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 71 53 W 16 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 70 51 W 18 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 69 49 W 18 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 68 48 W 18 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 66 46 NW 17 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 63 43 NW 17 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 61 41 NW 17 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 59 39 NW 15 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 38 NW 15 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 38 NW 15 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 37 N 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 36 N 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 34 N 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 33 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 32 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 32 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 34 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 59 40 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 64 46 SW 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 68 52 W 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 69 54 W 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 69 55 W 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 68 53 W 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 67 51 W 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 68 51 W 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 68 49 W 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 68 48 W 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 68 48 W 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 68 48 W 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 68 48 W 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 68 48 W 14 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 68 48 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 66 46 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 64 44 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 61 41 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 39 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 57 37 NW 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 35 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 33 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 32 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 34 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 59 40 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 65 47 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 69 53 W 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 69 54 W 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 63 49 W 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 56 41 W 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 56 40 W 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 56 39 W 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 56 37 W 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 57 37 W 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 57 37 W 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 56 36 W 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 36 W 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 36 W 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 56 36 NW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 36 NW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 36 NW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 36 NW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 36 NW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 36 NW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 56 36 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 36 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 37 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 58 38 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 40 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 61 44 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 64 48 S 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 67 53 S 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 69 55 S 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 72 58 S 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 74 58 S 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 75 58 S 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 75 56 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 74 54 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 72 52 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 70 50 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 67 47 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 64 44 SW 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 62 42 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 40 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 58 38 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 37 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 57 37 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 58 38 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 59 39 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 62 42 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 65 45 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 68 48 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 72 53 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 75 58 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 77 61 S 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 78 64 S 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 78 64 S 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 77 63 S 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 76 60 S 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 74 57 S 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 72 53 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 71 51 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 69 49 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 67 47 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 65 45 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 64 44 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 62 42 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 61 41 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 60 40 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 59 39 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 59 39 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 60 40 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 61 41 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 63 43 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 66 46 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 70 50 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 73 54 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 76 59 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 78 62 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 80 66 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 80 66 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 80 66 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 79 63 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 77 60 SW 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 76 57 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 74 54 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 72 52 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 70 50 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 68 48 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 66 46 W 9 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 64 44 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 63 43 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 42 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 61 41 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 61 41 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 62 42 N 7 0 50 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com