Detailed Predictions for: Bates Beach
Launch Altitude (f): 50
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time:

 4 FEB 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
4 AM Sat 52 32 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 31 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 30 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 31 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 36 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 43 N 3 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 67 48 N 3 415 390 340 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 69 51 N 3 440 415 365 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 69 52 N 3 449 423 373 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 69 51 SE 9 440 415 365 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 69 51 SE 9 440 415 365 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 68 49 SE 9 424 398 348 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 66 46 SE 5 398 328 278 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 63 43 SE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 60 40 SE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 57 37 NE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 56 36 NE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 36 NE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 36 NE 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 56 36 NE 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 36 NE 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 36 NE 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 36 NE 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 36 NE 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 36 NE 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 35 NE 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 34 NE 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 34 NE 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 37 NE 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 62 42 NE 13 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 47 E 9 407 382 332 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 67 49 E 9 424 398 348 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 68 50 E 9 432 407 357 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 67 49 E 9 424 398 348 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 67 48 E 9 415 390 340 Blue 5
3 PM Sun 66 47 E 9 407 382 332 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 65 45 SE 2 390 328 278 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 62 42 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 59 39 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 36 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 55 35 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 35 SE 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 55 35 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 54 34 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 34 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 34 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 34 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 34 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 34 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 33 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 32 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 33 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 36 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 40 NE 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 64 45 S 3 390 328 278 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 65 46 S 3 398 328 278 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 66 48 S 3 415 390 340 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 65 47 S 3 407 382 332 Blue 4
2 PM Mon 65 46 S 3 398 328 278 Blue 3
3 PM Mon 64 44 S 3 382 328 278 Blue 1
4 PM Mon 63 43 E 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 60 40 E 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 58 38 E 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 56 36 E 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 36 E 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 36 E 2 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 57 37 E 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 57 37 E 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 57 37 E 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 57 37 E 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 37 E 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 37 E 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 57 37 E 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 36 E 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 35 E 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 35 E 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 35 E 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 36 E 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 56 36 SE 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 56 36 SE 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 56 36 SE 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 56 36 SE 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 56 36 SE 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 55 35 SE 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 55 35 SE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 54 34 SE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 53 33 SE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 52 32 SE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 52 32 SE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 52 32 SE 6 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 51 31 NW 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 51 31 NW 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 51 31 NW 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 51 31 NW 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 31 NW 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 51 31 NW 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 31 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 31 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 31 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 31 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 33 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 55 35 N 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 57 38 W 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 58 40 W 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 59 41 W 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 59 41 W 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 59 40 W 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 58 39 W 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 58 38 NW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 56 36 NW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 55 35 NW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 54 34 NW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 53 33 NW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 33 NW 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 53 33 N 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 33 N 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 33 N 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 33 N 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 33 N 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 53 33 N 12 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 33 NE 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 32 NE 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 32 NE 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 33 NE 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 35 NE 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 39 NE 10 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 61 43 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 62 45 W 8 390 328 278 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 62 45 W 8 390 328 278 Blue 2
1 PM Thu 63 46 W 8 398 328 278 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 63 45 W 8 390 328 278 Blue 2
3 PM Thu 62 43 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 61 41 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 59 39 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 57 37 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 55 35 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 34 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 34 W 8 0 50 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 33 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 33 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 33 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 53 33 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 53 33 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 32 N 5 0 50 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com