Detailed Predictions for: Whetstone Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5500
Sounding

Station:

 KTUS

Date/Time:

 18 MAY 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
6 AM Fri 59 59 SW 17 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 58 58 SW 17 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 63 65 SW 17 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 65 68 SW 21 6141 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 65 70 SW 21 7439 5900 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 67 73 SW 21 11023 7413 1513 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 68 75 SW 25 11703 10122 4222 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 70 77 SW 25 12920 11309 5409 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 72 78 SW 25 13589 11645 5745 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 74 78 SW 26 13589 11645 5745 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 77 79 SW 26 14648 12073 6173 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 78 79 SW 26 14648 12073 6173 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 77 77 SW 25 12920 11309 5409 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 75 75 SW 25 11703 10122 4222 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 72 72 SW 25 10677 6744 844 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 66 66 SW 23 5431 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 65 65 SW 23 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 65 65 SW 23 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 SW 15 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 63 63 SW 15 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 62 62 SW 15 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 61 61 SW 10 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 60 60 SW 10 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 59 59 SW 10 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 60 60 S 7 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 59 S 7 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 63 65 S 7 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 65 69 SW 9 6756 5900 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 65 72 SW 9 10677 6744 844 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 67 75 SW 9 11703 10122 4222 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 67 76 SW 13 12212 10971 5071 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 69 77 SW 13 12920 11309 5409 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 71 78 SW 13 13589 11645 5745 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 73 78 W 14 13589 11645 5745 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 76 79 W 14 14648 12073 6173 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 77 78 W 14 13589 11645 5745 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 76 76 W 12 12212 10971 5071 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 74 74 W 12 11365 8053 2153 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 71 71 W 12 8090 6142 242 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 66 66 W 9 5431 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 65 65 W 9 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 65 65 W 9 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 SW 6 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 63 63 SW 6 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 62 SW 6 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 62 62 SW 3 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 61 61 SW 3 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 60 60 SW 3 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 61 61 SW 6 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 59 60 SW 6 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 65 67 SW 6 5788 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 67 71 SW 6 8090 6142 242 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 67 73 SW 6 11023 7413 1513 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 69 77 SW 6 12920 11309 5409 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 70 79 W 8 14648 12073 6173 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 72 81 W 8 17695 13435 7535 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 75 82 W 8 20543 14064 8164 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 77 82 W 8 20543 14064 8164 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 80 83 W 8 20832 15922 10022 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 81 82 W 8 20543 14064 8164 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 80 80 SW 9 16414 12773 6873 Blue 12
7 PM Sun 78 78 SW 9 13589 11645 5745 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 76 76 SW 9 12212 10971 5071 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 71 71 SW 9 8090 6142 242 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 70 70 SW 9 7439 5900 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 70 70 SW 9 7439 5900 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 69 69 SW 5 6756 5900 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 68 68 SW 5 6141 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 67 67 SW 5 5788 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 66 66 SW 5 5431 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 66 66 SW 5 5431 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 64 64 SW 5 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 65 65 E 8 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 64 65 E 8 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 69 71 E 8 8090 6142 242 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 71 76 E 8 12212 10971 5071 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 71 78 E 8 13589 11645 5745 Blue 10
11 AM Mon 73 81 E 8 17695 13435 7535 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 73 81 W 13 17695 13435 7535 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 75 83 W 13 20832 15922 10022 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 78 85 W 13 21402 20099 14199 Blue 17
3 PM Mon 80 85 W 13 21402 20099 14199 Blue 17
4 PM Mon 83 86 W 13 21915 20688 14788 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 83 84 W 13 21119 17252 11352 Blue 16
6 PM Mon 82 82 SW 12 20543 14064 8164 Blue 14
7 PM Mon 81 81 SW 12 17695 13435 7535 Blue 13
8 PM Mon 78 78 SW 12 13589 11645 5745 Blue 10
9 PM Mon 73 73 SW 12 11023 7413 1513 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 72 72 SW 12 10677 6744 844 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 72 72 SW 12 10677 6744 844 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 71 71 SW 6 8090 6142 242 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 70 70 SW 6 7439 5900 0 Blue 2
2 AM Tue 69 69 SW 6 6756 5900 0 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 69 69 SW 6 6756 5900 0 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 68 68 SW 6 6141 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 67 67 SW 6 5788 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 67 67 SW 13 5788 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 66 67 SW 13 5788 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 69 71 SW 13 8090 6142 242 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 71 75 SW 13 11703 10122 4222 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 71 77 SW 13 12920 11309 5409 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 72 80 SW 13 16414 12773 6873 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 73 81 SW 20 17695 13435 7535 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 74 82 SW 20 20543 14064 8164 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 76 83 SW 20 20832 15922 10022 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 77 82 SW 20 20543 14064 8164 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 79 82 SW 20 20543 14064 8164 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 80 81 SW 20 17695 13435 7535 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 79 79 SW 18 14648 12073 6173 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 77 77 SW 18 12920 11309 5409 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 74 74 SW 18 11365 8053 2153 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 69 69 SW 18 6756 5900 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 68 68 SW 18 6141 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 68 68 SW 18 6141 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 67 67 SW 9 5788 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 66 66 SW 9 5431 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 65 65 SW 9 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 64 64 SW 9 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 63 63 SW 9 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 62 62 SW 9 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 63 SW 16 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 61 62 SW 16 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 65 67 SW 16 5788 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 67 71 SW 16 8090 6142 242 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 67 73 SW 16 11023 7413 1513 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 69 77 SW 16 12920 11309 5409 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 69 77 W 18 12920 11309 5409 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 71 79 W 18 14648 12073 6173 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 73 80 W 18 16414 12773 6873 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 74 79 W 18 14648 12073 6173 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 77 80 W 18 16414 12773 6873 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 77 78 W 18 13589 11645 5745 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 76 76 SW 18 12212 10971 5071 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 74 74 SW 18 11365 8053 2153 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 72 72 SW 18 10677 6744 844 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 67 67 SW 18 5788 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 66 66 SW 18 5431 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 65 65 SW 18 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 SW 8 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 63 63 SW 8 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 62 62 SW 8 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 62 62 SW 8 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 61 61 SW 8 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 60 SW 8 5108 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com