Detailed Predictions for: The Y
Launch Altitude (f): 4900
LZ Altitude (f): 3150
Sounding

Station:

 KTUS

Date/Time:

 15 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
6 AM Mon 40 40 E 2 3776 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 39 39 E 2 3776 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 46 E 2 4152 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 48 50 N 2 6079 4900 0 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 55 58 N 2 10793 9881 4981 Blue 10
11 AM Mon 59 64 N 2 11605 11116 6216 Blue 16
12 Noon Mon 62 67 N 5 13554 11563 6663 White 19
1 PM Mon 63 68 N 5 13758 11735 6835 White 20
2 PM Mon 63 68 N 5 13758 11735 6835 White 20
3 PM Mon 62 65 N 4 11836 11232 6332 Blue 17
4 PM Mon 65 67 N 4 13554 11563 6663 White 19
5 PM Mon 63 63 N 4 11432 11000 6100 Blue 15
6 PM Mon 62 62 N 6 11259 10884 5984 Blue 14
7 PM Mon 59 59 N 6 10909 10436 5536 Blue 11
8 PM Mon 54 54 N 6 9128 6555 1655 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 52 52 NW 3 7091 5531 631 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 51 51 NW 3 6592 4996 96 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 50 50 NW 3 6079 4900 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 NW 2 5008 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 NW 2 4152 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 44 44 NW 2 3776 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 44 44 NE 2 3776 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 43 NE 2 3776 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 43 43 NE 2 3776 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 43 E 4 3776 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 42 E 4 3776 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 49 49 E 4 5552 4900 0 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 51 53 NE 2 8095 6050 1150 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 58 61 NE 2 11143 10768 5868 Blue 13
11 AM Tue 62 67 NE 2 13554 11563 6663 White 19
12 Noon Tue 65 71 E 2 14368 14001 9101 White 23
1 PM Tue 66 72 E 2 14572 14572 9672 White 24
2 PM Tue 66 71 E 2 14368 14001 9101 White 23
3 PM Tue 65 68 E 4 13758 11735 6835 White 20
4 PM Tue 68 70 E 4 14165 13268 8368 White 22
5 PM Tue 65 65 E 4 11836 11232 6332 Blue 17
6 PM Tue 65 65 E 1 11836 11232 6332 Blue 17
7 PM Tue 61 61 E 1 11143 10768 5868 Blue 13
8 PM Tue 56 56 E 1 10517 7960 3060 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 54 54 SW 5 9128 6555 1655 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 52 52 SW 5 7091 5531 631 Blue 4
11 PM Tue 51 51 SW 5 6592 4996 96 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 W 1 5552 4900 0 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 47 47 W 1 4578 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 46 46 W 1 4152 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 45 45 E 1 3776 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 44 E 1 3776 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 44 44 E 1 3776 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 E 3 3776 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 43 43 E 3 3776 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 50 E 3 6079 4900 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 53 54 E 3 9128 6555 1655 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 60 63 E 3 11432 11000 6100 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 64 68 E 3 13758 11735 6835 White 20
12 Noon Wed 67 72 E 3 14572 14572 9672 White 24
1 PM Wed 67 72 E 3 14572 14572 9672 White 24
2 PM Wed 68 72 E 3 14572 14572 9672 White 24
3 PM Wed 67 70 S 4 14165 13268 8368 White 22
4 PM Wed 70 72 S 4 14572 14572 9672 White 24
5 PM Wed 68 68 S 4 13758 11735 6835 White 20
6 PM Wed 67 67 W 5 13554 11563 6663 White 19
7 PM Wed 63 63 W 5 11432 11000 6100 Blue 15
8 PM Wed 58 58 W 5 10793 9881 4981 Blue 10
9 PM Wed 57 57 SW 5 10676 8976 4076 Blue 9
10 PM Wed 55 55 SW 5 10120 7047 2147 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 54 54 SW 5 9128 6555 1655 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 S 4 7091 5531 631 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 50 50 S 4 6079 4900 0 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 49 49 S 4 5552 4900 0 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 48 48 SE 3 5008 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 47 SE 3 4578 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 47 47 SE 3 4578 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 47 SE 4 4578 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 46 SE 4 4152 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 52 SE 4 7091 5531 631 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 54 55 S 6 10120 7047 2147 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 60 62 S 6 11259 10884 5984 Blue 14
11 AM Thu 64 68 S 6 13758 11735 6835 White 20
12 Noon Thu 67 71 SW 9 14368 14001 9101 White 23
1 PM Thu 67 71 SW 9 14368 14001 9101 White 23
2 PM Thu 68 72 SW 9 14572 14572 9672 White 24
3 PM Thu 66 69 W 11 13962 12475 7575 White 21
4 PM Thu 69 70 W 11 14165 13268 8368 White 22
5 PM Thu 67 67 W 11 13554 11563 6663 White 19
6 PM Thu 66 66 W 11 12710 11391 6491 Blue 18
7 PM Thu 63 63 W 11 11432 11000 6100 Blue 15
8 PM Thu 58 58 W 11 10793 9881 4981 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 57 57 W 9 10676 8976 4076 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 55 55 W 9 10120 7047 2147 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 54 54 W 9 9128 6555 1655 Blue 6
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 NW 7 7091 5531 631 Blue 4
1 AM Fri 51 51 NW 7 6592 4996 96 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 49 49 NW 7 5552 4900 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 49 49 N 5 5552 4900 0 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 48 48 N 5 5008 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 48 N 5 5008 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 48 N 5 5008 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 N 5 4578 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 52 N 5 7091 5531 631 Blue 4
9 AM Fri 54 55 NW 7 10120 7047 2147 Blue 7
10 AM Fri 59 61 NW 7 11143 10768 5868 Blue 13
11 AM Fri 62 66 NW 7 12710 11391 6491 Blue 18
12 Noon Fri 64 68 NW 10 13758 11735 6835 White 20
1 PM Fri 64 68 NW 10 13758 11735 6835 White 20
2 PM Fri 65 69 NW 10 13962 12475 7575 White 21
3 PM Fri 64 67 W 11 13554 11563 6663 White 19
4 PM Fri 66 67 W 11 13554 11563 6663 White 19
5 PM Fri 64 64 W 11 11605 11116 6216 Blue 16
6 PM Fri 63 63 W 11 11432 11000 6100 Blue 15
7 PM Fri 60 60 W 11 11026 10651 5751 Blue 12
8 PM Fri 55 55 W 11 10120 7047 2147 Blue 7
9 PM Fri 53 53 NW 11 8095 6050 1150 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 52 52 NW 11 7091 5531 631 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 51 51 NW 11 6592 4996 96 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 49 49 N 9 5552 4900 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 47 47 N 9 4578 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 45 45 N 9 3776 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 45 N 8 3776 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 44 44 N 8 3776 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 N 8 3776 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 N 8 3776 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 43 43 N 8 3776 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 49 N 8 5552 4900 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 51 52 N 9 7091 5531 631 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 57 59 N 9 10909 10436 5536 Blue 11
11 AM Sat 61 64 N 9 11605 11116 6216 Blue 16
12 Noon Sat 64 68 NW 11 13758 11735 6835 White 20
1 PM Sat 64 68 NW 11 13758 11735 6835 White 20
2 PM Sat 65 68 NW 11 13758 11735 6835 White 20
3 PM Sat 63 65 W 12 11836 11232 6332 Blue 17
4 PM Sat 66 67 W 12 13554 11563 6663 White 19
5 PM Sat 63 63 W 12 11432 11000 6100 Blue 15
6 PM Sat 63 63 W 12 11432 11000 6100 Blue 15
7 PM Sat 59 59 W 12 10909 10436 5536 Blue 11
8 PM Sat 54 54 W 12 9128 6555 1655 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 52 52 NW 11 7091 5531 631 Blue 4
10 PM Sat 50 50 NW 11 6079 4900 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 49 49 NW 11 5552 4900 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 47 47 N 11 4578 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 45 N 11 3776 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 44 N 11 3776 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 NE 10 3776 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 NE 10 3776 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 NE 10 3776 4900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com