Detailed Predictions for: The Y
Launch Altitude (f): 4900
LZ Altitude (f): 3150
Sounding

Station:

 KTUS

Date/Time:

 10 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
8 AM Wed 37 37 W 1 4929 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 40 41 W 1 7835 5349 449 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 43 44 W 1 8466 7728 2828 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 44 46 SW 8 8977 8364 3464 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 45 48 SW 8 9796 8594 3694 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 44 47 SW 8 9392 8454 3554 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 44 46 W 11 8977 8364 3464 Blue 9
3 PM Wed 45 46 W 11 8977 8364 3464 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 45 46 W 11 8977 8364 3464 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 44 44 W 14 8466 7728 2828 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 42 42 W 14 8189 5769 869 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 39 39 W 14 5789 4900 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 38 38 W 8 5363 4900 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 37 37 W 8 4929 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 36 36 W 8 4250 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 35 35 NW 4 3465 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 34 34 NW 4 3465 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 34 34 NW 4 3465 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 33 33 NW 4 3465 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 33 33 NW 4 3465 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 33 33 NW 4 3465 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 32 32 NW 6 3465 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 32 32 NW 6 3465 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 36 36 NW 6 4250 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 38 38 NW 5 5363 4900 0 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 47 48 NW 5 9796 8594 3694 Blue 11
10 AM Thu 52 54 NW 5 11430 10333 5433 Blue 17
11 AM Thu 56 59 N 5 12536 11754 6854 Blue 22
12 Noon Thu 57 61 N 5 13366 12037 7137 White 24
1 PM Thu 56 60 N 5 13162 11896 6996 White 23
2 PM Thu 55 58 N 6 12075 11613 6713 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 57 59 N 6 12536 11754 6854 Blue 22
4 PM Thu 56 57 N 6 11933 11255 6355 Blue 20
5 PM Thu 56 56 NW 6 11791 10621 5721 Blue 19
6 PM Thu 52 52 NW 6 10507 10045 5145 Blue 15
7 PM Thu 48 48 NW 6 9796 8594 3694 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 46 46 SW 5 8977 8364 3464 Blue 9
9 PM Thu 45 45 SW 5 8619 8160 3260 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 43 43 SW 5 8376 6765 1865 Blue 6
11 PM Thu 40 40 SW 2 6850 4921 21 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 40 40 SW 2 6850 4921 21 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 39 39 SW 2 5789 4900 0 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 38 38 SW 1 5363 4900 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 38 38 SW 1 5363 4900 0 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 38 38 SW 1 5363 4900 0 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 37 37 NE 7 4929 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 36 36 NE 7 4250 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 40 40 NE 7 6850 4921 21 Blue 3
8 AM Fri 42 42 N 10 8189 5769 869 Blue 5
9 AM Fri 51 52 N 10 10507 10045 5145 Blue 15
10 AM Fri 56 59 N 10 12536 11754 6854 Blue 22
11 AM Fri 60 64 W 9 13976 13821 8921 White 27
12 Noon Fri 61 66 W 9 14381 14381 9481 White 29
1 PM Fri 60 65 W 9 14179 14179 9279 White 28
2 PM Fri 59 63 W 8 13773 13092 8192 White 26
3 PM Fri 61 64 W 8 13976 13821 8921 White 27
4 PM Fri 60 61 W 8 13366 12037 7137 White 24
5 PM Fri 60 60 W 7 13162 11896 6996 White 23
6 PM Fri 56 56 W 7 11791 10621 5721 Blue 19
7 PM Fri 52 52 W 7 10507 10045 5145 Blue 15
8 PM Fri 50 50 W 5 10218 9322 4422 Blue 13
9 PM Fri 49 49 W 5 10073 8912 4012 Blue 12
10 PM Fri 47 47 W 5 9392 8454 3554 Blue 10
11 PM Fri 44 44 NW 3 8466 7728 2828 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 NW 3 8466 7728 2828 Blue 7
1 AM Sat 43 43 NW 3 8376 6765 1865 Blue 6
2 AM Sat 42 42 N 2 8189 5769 869 Blue 5
3 AM Sat 42 42 N 2 8189 5769 869 Blue 5
4 AM Sat 42 42 N 2 8189 5769 869 Blue 5
5 AM Sat 41 41 N 2 7835 5349 449 Blue 4
6 AM Sat 40 40 N 2 6850 4921 21 Blue 3
7 AM Sat 44 44 N 2 8466 7728 2828 Blue 7
8 AM Sat 45 45 N 6 8619 8160 3260 Blue 8
9 AM Sat 53 54 N 6 11430 10333 5433 Blue 17
10 AM Sat 57 59 N 6 12536 11754 6854 Blue 22
11 AM Sat 61 64 W 10 13976 13821 8921 White 27
12 Noon Sat 62 66 W 10 14381 14381 9481 White 29
1 PM Sat 61 65 W 10 14179 14179 9279 White 28
2 PM Sat 60 64 W 12 13976 13821 8921 White 27
3 PM Sat 62 64 W 12 13976 13821 8921 White 27
4 PM Sat 61 62 W 12 13570 12303 7403 White 25
5 PM Sat 61 61 W 10 13366 12037 7137 White 24
6 PM Sat 57 57 W 10 11933 11255 6355 Blue 20
7 PM Sat 53 53 W 10 10676 10189 5289 Blue 16
8 PM Sat 51 51 W 9 10363 9724 4824 Blue 14
9 PM Sat 50 50 W 9 10218 9322 4422 Blue 13
10 PM Sat 48 48 W 9 9796 8594 3694 Blue 11
11 PM Sat 45 45 NW 8 8619 8160 3260 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 NW 8 8619 8160 3260 Blue 8
1 AM Sun 44 44 NW 8 8466 7728 2828 Blue 7
2 AM Sun 43 43 N 8 8376 6765 1865 Blue 6
3 AM Sun 43 43 N 8 8376 6765 1865 Blue 6
4 AM Sun 43 43 N 8 8376 6765 1865 Blue 6
5 AM Sun 42 42 N 8 8189 5769 869 Blue 5
6 AM Sun 41 41 N 8 7835 5349 449 Blue 4
7 AM Sun 43 43 N 8 8376 6765 1865 Blue 6
8 AM Sun 44 44 N 10 8466 7728 2828 Blue 7
9 AM Sun 49 50 N 10 10218 9322 4422 Blue 13
10 AM Sun 52 54 N 10 11430 10333 5433 Blue 17
11 AM Sun 54 57 N 12 11933 11255 6355 Blue 20
12 Noon Sun 55 59 N 12 12536 11754 6854 Blue 22
1 PM Sun 54 58 N 12 12075 11613 6713 Blue 21
2 PM Sun 54 57 N 12 11933 11255 6355 Blue 20
3 PM Sun 55 57 N 12 11933 11255 6355 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 55 56 N 12 11791 10621 5721 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 54 54 N 10 11430 10333 5433 Blue 17
6 PM Sun 52 52 N 10 10507 10045 5145 Blue 15
7 PM Sun 50 50 N 10 10218 9322 4422 Blue 13
8 PM Sun 49 49 N 10 10073 8912 4012 Blue 12
9 PM Sun 48 48 N 10 9796 8594 3694 Blue 11
10 PM Sun 47 47 N 10 9392 8454 3554 Blue 10
11 PM Sun 45 45 NE 11 8619 8160 3260 Blue 8
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 NE 11 8619 8160 3260 Blue 8
1 AM Mon 45 45 NE 11 8619 8160 3260 Blue 8
2 AM Mon 44 44 NE 11 8466 7728 2828 Blue 7
3 AM Mon 44 44 NE 11 8466 7728 2828 Blue 7
4 AM Mon 44 44 NE 11 8466 7728 2828 Blue 7
5 AM Mon 43 43 NE 11 8376 6765 1865 Blue 6
6 AM Mon 43 43 NE 11 8376 6765 1865 Blue 6
7 AM Mon 46 46 NE 11 8977 8364 3464 Blue 9
8 AM Mon 48 48 N 11 9796 8594 3694 Blue 11
9 AM Mon 54 55 N 11 11649 10477 5577 Blue 18
10 AM Mon 58 61 N 11 13366 12037 7137 White 24
11 AM Mon 61 65 N 10 14179 14179 9279 White 28
12 Noon Mon 62 67 N 10 14584 14584 9684 White 30
1 PM Mon 61 66 N 10 14381 14381 9481 White 29
2 PM Mon 60 64 N 8 13976 13821 8921 White 27
3 PM Mon 62 65 N 8 14179 14179 9279 White 28
4 PM Mon 62 63 N 8 13773 13092 8192 White 26
5 PM Mon 61 61 N 5 13366 12037 7137 White 24
6 PM Mon 58 58 N 5 12075 11613 6713 Blue 21
7 PM Mon 54 54 N 5 11430 10333 5433 Blue 17
8 PM Mon 53 53 N 8 10676 10189 5289 Blue 16
9 PM Mon 52 52 N 8 10507 10045 5145 Blue 15
10 PM Mon 51 51 N 8 10363 9724 4824 Blue 14
11 PM Mon 49 49 NE 13 10073 8912 4012 Blue 12
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 NE 13 9796 8594 3694 Blue 11
1 AM Tue 47 47 NE 13 9392 8454 3554 Blue 10
2 AM Tue 47 47 NE 13 9392 8454 3554 Blue 10
3 AM Tue 46 46 NE 13 8977 8364 3464 Blue 9
4 AM Tue 46 46 NE 13 8977 8364 3464 Blue 9
5 AM Tue 45 45 NE 13 8619 8160 3260 Blue 8
6 AM Tue 45 45 NE 13 8619 8160 3260 Blue 8
7 AM Tue 48 48 NE 13 9796 8594 3694 Blue 11

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com