Detailed Predictions for: The Y
Launch Altitude (f): 4900
LZ Altitude (f): 3150
Sounding

Station:

 KTUS

Date/Time:

 4 FEB 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Sat 32 32 NE 2 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 32 32 NE 2 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 31 31 NE 2 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 32 32 N 6 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 42 42 N 6 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 47 48 N 6 4347 4900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 53 55 N 7 7691 6278 1378 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 57 60 N 7 8990 8195 3295 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 59 62 N 7 9493 8701 3801 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 59 61 N 5 9242 8448 3548 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 59 61 N 5 9242 8448 3548 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 58 59 N 5 8737 7929 3029 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 56 56 NE 1 7961 6844 1944 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 51 51 NE 1 5719 4900 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 45 45 NE 1 3728 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 42 42 N 2 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 40 40 N 2 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 39 39 N 2 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 38 38 NW 3 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 36 36 NW 3 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 37 37 NW 3 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 37 37 N 2 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 36 36 N 2 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 35 35 N 2 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 34 34 E 1 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 33 33 E 1 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 32 32 E 1 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 33 33 E 2 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 42 42 E 2 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 48 49 E 2 4552 4900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 53 54 N 5 7420 5692 792 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 57 59 N 5 8737 7929 3029 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 59 61 N 5 9242 8448 3548 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 59 60 N 3 8990 8195 3295 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 59 60 N 3 8990 8195 3295 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 58 58 N 3 8483 7662 2762 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 56 56 N 1 7961 6844 1944 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 51 51 N 1 5719 4900 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 45 45 N 1 3728 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 43 43 SW 7 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 41 41 SW 7 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 39 39 SW 7 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 39 39 SW 5 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 37 37 SW 5 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 38 38 SW 5 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 38 38 W 3 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 37 37 W 3 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 36 36 W 3 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 35 35 NE 9 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 34 34 NE 9 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 33 33 NE 9 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 34 34 E 5 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 43 43 E 5 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 48 49 E 5 4552 4900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 54 55 E 1 7691 6278 1378 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 57 59 E 1 8737 7929 3029 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 59 61 E 1 9242 8448 3548 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 59 61 S 5 9242 8448 3548 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 59 60 S 5 8990 8195 3295 Blue 11
4 PM Mon 59 59 S 5 8737 7929 3029 Blue 10
5 PM Mon 56 56 W 8 7961 6844 1944 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 51 51 W 8 5719 4900 0 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 46 46 W 8 3935 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 44 44 NW 7 3521 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 41 41 NW 7 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 40 40 NW 7 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 40 40 N 5 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 37 37 N 5 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 39 39 N 5 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 38 38 NE 6 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 37 37 NE 6 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 37 37 NE 6 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 36 36 E 7 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 35 35 E 7 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 34 34 E 7 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 35 35 E 7 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 44 44 E 7 3521 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 50 50 E 7 5097 4900 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 55 56 SE 7 7961 6844 1944 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 59 60 SE 7 8990 8195 3295 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 61 62 SE 7 9493 8701 3801 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 61 62 S 7 9493 8701 3801 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 61 62 S 7 9493 8701 3801 Blue 13
4 PM Tue 61 61 S 7 9242 8448 3548 Blue 12
5 PM Tue 59 59 S 7 8737 7929 3029 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 54 54 S 7 7420 5692 792 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 50 50 S 7 5097 4900 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 48 48 S 7 4347 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 46 46 S 7 3935 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 45 45 S 7 3728 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 45 45 SE 6 3728 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 43 43 SE 6 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 44 44 SE 6 3521 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 44 44 E 6 3521 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 43 E 6 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 E 6 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 41 41 NE 6 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 41 41 NE 6 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 40 NE 6 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 41 41 E 6 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 47 47 E 6 4141 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 51 51 E 6 5719 4900 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 55 56 E 7 7961 6844 1944 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 57 58 E 7 8483 7662 2762 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 59 60 E 7 8990 8195 3295 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 59 60 SE 8 8990 8195 3295 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 59 60 SE 8 8990 8195 3295 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 59 59 SE 8 8737 7929 3029 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 57 57 S 8 8228 7391 2491 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 54 54 S 8 7420 5692 792 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 51 51 S 8 5719 4900 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 49 49 SE 9 4552 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 48 48 SE 9 4347 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 47 47 SE 9 4141 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 47 47 E 10 4141 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 45 45 E 10 3728 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 46 E 10 3935 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 46 46 E 12 3935 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 45 45 E 12 3728 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 45 45 E 12 3728 4900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 44 44 NE 12 3521 4900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 44 NE 12 3521 4900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 43 43 NE 12 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 43 43 NE 10 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 48 48 NE 10 4347 4900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 50 50 NE 10 5097 4900 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 53 54 N 9 7420 5692 792 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 54 55 N 9 7691 6278 1378 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 55 56 N 9 7961 6844 1944 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 55 56 N 7 7961 6844 1944 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 55 56 N 7 7961 6844 1944 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 55 55 N 7 7691 6278 1378 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 53 53 NW 6 6890 5082 182 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 51 51 NW 6 5719 4900 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 48 48 NW 6 4347 4900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 46 46 N 7 3935 4900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 45 45 N 7 3728 4900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 44 44 N 7 3521 4900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 N 7 3521 4900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 N 7 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 N 7 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 43 43 NE 8 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 43 43 NE 8 3340 4900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 42 42 NE 8 3340 4900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com