Detailed Predictions for: South Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 1400
Sounding

Station:

 KTUS

Date/Time:

 4 FEB 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Sat 47 47 NE 7 2273 2600 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 46 46 NE 7 2273 2600 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 46 46 NE 7 2273 2600 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 46 46 NE 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 49 49 NE 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 53 54 NE 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 56 58 NE 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
12 Noon Sat 58 61 NE 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
1 PM Sat 60 63 NE 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
2 PM Sat 62 64 NE 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
3 PM Sat 64 65 NE 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
4 PM Sat 64 64 NE 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 65 65 N 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 61 61 N 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 59 59 N 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 59 59 N 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 58 58 N 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 58 58 N 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 57 57 NE 3 2273 2600 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 NE 3 2273 2600 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 55 55 NE 3 2273 2600 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 54 54 NE 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 53 53 NE 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 51 51 NE 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 51 51 E 7 2273 2600 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 50 50 E 7 2273 2600 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 49 49 E 7 2273 2600 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 50 50 E 6 2273 2600 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 53 53 E 6 2273 2600 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 56 57 E 6 2273 2600 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 59 60 E 9 2273 2600 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 60 62 E 9 2273 2600 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 62 64 E 9 2273 2600 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 64 65 E 10 2273 2600 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 65 66 E 10 2273 2600 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 65 65 E 10 2273 2600 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 66 66 NE 6 2273 2600 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 62 62 NE 6 2273 2600 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 60 60 NE 6 2273 2600 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 59 59 NE 6 2273 2600 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 58 58 NE 6 2273 2600 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 58 58 NE 6 2273 2600 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 57 57 NE 6 2273 2600 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 NE 6 2273 2600 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 55 55 NE 6 2273 2600 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 54 54 NE 6 2273 2600 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 53 53 NE 6 2273 2600 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 51 51 NE 6 2273 2600 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 51 51 E 6 2273 2600 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 50 50 E 6 2273 2600 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 49 49 E 6 2273 2600 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 50 50 E 6 2273 2600 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 53 53 E 6 2273 2600 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 55 56 E 6 2273 2600 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 58 59 NE 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 59 61 NE 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
1 PM Mon 61 63 NE 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
2 PM Mon 63 64 NE 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
3 PM Mon 64 65 NE 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 65 65 NE 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 65 65 NW 3 2273 2600 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 61 61 NW 3 2273 2600 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 59 59 NW 3 2273 2600 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 59 59 NW 3 2273 2600 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 58 58 NW 3 2273 2600 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 58 58 NW 3 2273 2600 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 57 57 NW 3 2273 2600 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 NW 3 2273 2600 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 55 55 NW 3 2273 2600 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 55 55 NW 3 2273 2600 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 54 54 NW 3 2273 2600 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 52 52 NW 3 2273 2600 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 52 52 E 6 2273 2600 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 51 51 E 6 2273 2600 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 50 50 E 6 2273 2600 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 51 51 E 6 2273 2600 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 54 54 E 6 2273 2600 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 57 58 E 6 2273 2600 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 60 61 E 7 2273 2600 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 61 63 E 7 2273 2600 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 63 65 E 7 2273 2600 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 65 66 E 7 2273 2600 0 White 0
3 PM Tue 66 67 E 7 2273 2600 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 66 66 E 7 2273 2600 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 67 67 N 1 2273 2600 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 63 63 N 1 2273 2600 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 61 61 N 1 2273 2600 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 61 61 N 1 2273 2600 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 60 60 N 1 2273 2600 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 60 60 N 1 2273 2600 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 59 59 N 3 2273 2600 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 N 3 2273 2600 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 57 57 N 3 2273 2600 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 56 56 N 3 2273 2600 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 55 55 N 3 2273 2600 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 53 53 N 3 2273 2600 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 53 53 NE 6 2273 2600 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 NE 6 2273 2600 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 51 51 NE 6 2273 2600 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 51 51 NE 6 2273 2600 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 54 54 NE 6 2273 2600 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 56 56 NE 6 2273 2600 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 58 59 E 2 2273 2600 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 59 60 E 2 2273 2600 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 60 61 E 2 2273 2600 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 61 62 E 2 2273 2600 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 63 64 E 2 2273 2600 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 63 63 E 2 2273 2600 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 63 63 NW 6 2273 2600 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 60 60 NW 6 2273 2600 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 58 58 NW 6 2273 2600 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 58 58 NW 6 2273 2600 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 57 57 NW 6 2273 2600 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 57 57 NW 6 2273 2600 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 56 56 NW 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 NW 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 55 55 NW 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 54 54 NW 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 53 53 NW 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 52 52 NW 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 52 52 NE 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 51 51 NE 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 50 50 NE 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 51 51 NE 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 53 53 NE 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 56 57 NE 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 58 59 NE 3 2273 2600 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 60 62 NE 3 2273 2600 0 White 0
1 PM Thu 61 63 NE 3 2273 2600 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 63 65 NE 3 2273 2600 0 White 0
3 PM Thu 64 65 NE 3 2273 2600 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 65 65 NE 3 2273 2600 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 65 65 W 7 2273 2600 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 61 61 W 7 2273 2600 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 59 59 W 7 2273 2600 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 59 59 W 7 2273 2600 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 58 58 W 7 2273 2600 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 58 58 W 7 2273 2600 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 57 57 N 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 57 57 N 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 55 55 N 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 55 55 N 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 N 5 2273 2600 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 52 52 N 5 2273 2600 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com