SoaringPredictor for South Mountain

Detailed Predictions for: South Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 1400

Sounding
Station:	KTUS
Date/Time:	3 SEP 2010
Temp/Wind data from:	NOAA Digital Forecast

Time (Local)	High Temp	Puddle Temp	Wind (mph)	Thermal Ceiling (ft)	Soaring Ceiling (ft)	Above Launch (ft)	Thermal Type	Thermal Index (F)
6 AM Fri	82	82	E 5	2903	2708	108	Blue	7
7 AM Fri	80	80	E 5	2774	2600	0	Blue	5
8 AM Fri	79	80	E 5	2774	2600	0	Blue	5
9 AM Fri	83	85	E 8	3096	2901	301	Blue	10
10 AM Fri	85	89	E 8	3354	3159	559	Blue	14
11 AM Fri	88	94	E 8	3761	3481	881	Blue	19
12 Noon Fri	91	97	E 13	5066	3757	1157	Blue	22
1 PM Fri	93	99	E 13	6650	4319	1719	Blue	24
2 PM Fri	96	101	E 13	8058	5798	3198	Blue	26
3 PM Fri	98	102	SE 10	9087	6551	3951	Blue	27
4 PM Fri	101	103	SE 10	14049	7260	4660	White	28
5 PM Fri	103	104	SE 10	14251	7934	5334	White	29
6 PM Fri	104	104	E 6	14251	7934	5334	White	29
7 PM Fri	101	101	E 6	8058	5798	3198	Blue	26
8 PM Fri	99	99	E 6	6650	4319	1719	Blue	24
9 PM Fri	97	97	E 6	5066	3757	1157	Blue	22
10 PM Fri	96	96	E 6	4340	3662	1062	Blue	21
11 PM Fri	94	94	E 6	3761	3481	881	Blue	19
12 Midnight Sat	92	92	E 8	3572	3352	752	Blue	17
1 AM Sat	90	90	E 8	3419	3223	623	Blue	15
2 AM Sat	88	88	E 8	3290	3094	494	Blue	13
3 AM Sat	87	87	E 8	3225	3030	430	Blue	12
4 AM Sat	85	85	E 8	3096	2901	301	Blue	10
5 AM Sat	84	84	E 8	3032	2837	237	Blue	9
6 AM Sat	84	84	E 8	3032	2837	237	Blue	9
7 AM Sat	82	82	E 8	2903	2708	108	Blue	7
8 AM Sat	81	82	E 8	2903	2708	108	Blue	7
9 AM Sat	84	86	E 9	3161	2966	366	Blue	11
10 AM Sat	86	90	E 9	3419	3223	623	Blue	15
11 AM Sat	88	93	E 9	3667	3417	817	Blue	18
12 Noon Sat	90	96	E 9	4340	3662	1062	Blue	21
1 PM Sat	93	99	E 9	6650	4319	1719	Blue	24
2 PM Sat	95	100	E 9	7370	4995	2395	Blue	25
3 PM Sat	97	101	S 6	8058	5798	3198	Blue	26
4 PM Sat	99	101	S 6	8058	5798	3198	Blue	26
5 PM Sat	101	102	S 6	9087	6551	3951	Blue	27
6 PM Sat	102	102	SW 2	9087	6551	3951	Blue	27
7 PM Sat	99	99	SW 2	6650	4319	1719	Blue	24
8 PM Sat	96	96	SW 2	4340	3662	1062	Blue	21
9 PM Sat	95	95	SW 2	4018	3568	968	Blue	20
10 PM Sat	94	94	SW 2	3761	3481	881	Blue	19
11 PM Sat	92	92	SW 2	3572	3352	752	Blue	17
12 Midnight Sun	90	90	S 3	3419	3223	623	Blue	15
1 AM Sun	89	89	S 3	3354	3159	559	Blue	14
2 AM Sun	87	87	S 3	3225	3030	430	Blue	12
3 AM Sun	86	86	S 3	3161	2966	366	Blue	11
4 AM Sun	85	85	S 3	3096	2901	301	Blue	10
5 AM Sun	84	84	S 3	3032	2837	237	Blue	9
6 AM Sun	83	83	SE 5	2967	2773	173	Blue	8
7 AM Sun	82	82	SE 5	2903	2708	108	Blue	7
8 AM Sun	81	82	SE 5	2903	2708	108	Blue	7
9 AM Sun	84	86	SE 5	3161	2966	366	Blue	11
10 AM Sun	86	90	SE 5	3419	3223	623	Blue	15
11 AM Sun	88	93	SE 5	3667	3417	817	Blue	18
12 Noon Sun	90	96	S 8	4340	3662	1062	Blue	21
1 PM Sun	93	99	S 8	6650	4319	1719	Blue	24
2 PM Sun	95	100	S 8	7370	4995	2395	Blue	25
3 PM Sun	97	101	S 8	8058	5798	3198	Blue	26
4 PM Sun	99	101	S 8	8058	5798	3198	Blue	26
5 PM Sun	101	102	S 8	9087	6551	3951	Blue	27
6 PM Sun	101	101	W 10	8058	5798	3198	Blue	26
7 PM Sun	98	98	W 10	5885	4000	1400	Blue	23
8 PM Sun	96	96	W 10	4340	3662	1062	Blue	21
9 PM Sun	94	94	W 10	3761	3481	881	Blue	19
10 PM Sun	93	93	W 10	3667	3417	817	Blue	18
11 PM Sun	91	91	W 10	3484	3288	688	Blue	16
12 Midnight Mon	89	89	SW 8	3354	3159	559	Blue	14
1 AM Mon	88	88	SW 8	3290	3094	494	Blue	13
2 AM Mon	86	86	SW 8	3161	2966	366	Blue	11
3 AM Mon	85	85	SW 8	3096	2901	301	Blue	10
4 AM Mon	83	83	SW 8	2967	2773	173	Blue	8
5 AM Mon	82	82	SW 8	2903	2708	108	Blue	7
6 AM Mon	82	82	S 5	2903	2708	108	Blue	7
7 AM Mon	80	80	S 5	2774	2600	0	Blue	5
8 AM Mon	79	80	S 5	2774	2600	0	Blue	5
9 AM Mon	82	84	S 5	3032	2837	237	Blue	9
10 AM Mon	84	88	S 5	3290	3094	494	Blue	13
11 AM Mon	85	90	S 5	3419	3223	623	Blue	15
12 Noon Mon	88	94	SW 7	3761	3481	881	Blue	19
1 PM Mon	89	95	SW 7	4018	3568	968	Blue	20
2 PM Mon	91	96	SW 7	4340	3662	1062	Blue	21
3 PM Mon	93	97	SW 7	5066	3757	1157	Blue	22
4 PM Mon	96	98	SW 7	5885	4000	1400	Blue	23
5 PM Mon	97	98	SW 7	5885	4000	1400	Blue	23
6 PM Mon	97	97	W 8	5066	3757	1157	Blue	22
7 PM Mon	94	94	W 8	3761	3481	881	Blue	19
8 PM Mon	92	92	W 8	3572	3352	752	Blue	17
9 PM Mon	90	90	W 8	3419	3223	623	Blue	15
10 PM Mon	89	89	W 8	3354	3159	559	Blue	14
11 PM Mon	87	87	W 8	3225	3030	430	Blue	12
12 Midnight Tue	85	85	S 7	3096	2901	301	Blue	10
1 AM Tue	84	84	S 7	3032	2837	237	Blue	9
2 AM Tue	82	82	S 7	2903	2708	108	Blue	7
3 AM Tue	81	81	S 7	2838	2644	44	Blue	6
4 AM Tue	79	79	S 7	2709	2600	0	Blue	4
5 AM Tue	78	78	S 7	2645	2600	0	Blue	3
6 AM Tue	78	78	SE 5	2645	2600	0	Blue	3
7 AM Tue	76	76	SE 5	2515	2600	0	Blue	1
8 AM Tue	75	76	SE 5	2515	2600	0	Blue	1
9 AM Tue	78	80	SE 5	2774	2600	0	Blue	5
10 AM Tue	80	84	SE 5	3032	2837	237	Blue	9
11 AM Tue	82	87	SE 5	3225	3030	430	Blue	12
12 Noon Tue	84	90	S 8	3419	3223	623	Blue	15
1 PM Tue	86	92	S 8	3572	3352	752	Blue	17
2 PM Tue	88	93	S 8	3667	3417	817	Blue	18
3 PM Tue	90	94	S 8	3761	3481	881	Blue	19
4 PM Tue	92	94	S 8	3761	3481	881	Blue	19
5 PM Tue	94	95	S 8	4018	3568	968	Blue	20
6 PM Tue	94	94	SW 10	3761	3481	881	Blue	19
7 PM Tue	92	92	SW 10	3572	3352	752	Blue	17
8 PM Tue	89	89	SW 10	3354	3159	559	Blue	14
9 PM Tue	87	87	SW 10	3225	3030	430	Blue	12
10 PM Tue	87	87	SW 10	3225	3030	430	Blue	12
11 PM Tue	85	85	SW 10	3096	2901	301	Blue	10
12 Midnight Wed	83	83	S 9	2967	2773	173	Blue	8
1 AM Wed	81	81	S 9	2838	2644	44	Blue	6
2 AM Wed	80	80	S 9	2774	2600	0	Blue	5
3 AM Wed	78	78	S 9	2645	2600	0	Blue	3
4 AM Wed	77	77	S 9	2581	2600	0	Blue	2
5 AM Wed	76	76	S 9	2515	2600	0	Blue	1
6 AM Wed	75	75	SE 7	0	2600	0	Blue	0
7 AM Wed	74	74	SE 7	0	2600	0	Blue	0
8 AM Wed	73	74	SE 7	0	2600	0	Blue	0
9 AM Wed	76	79	SE 7	2709	2600	0	Blue	4
10 AM Wed	78	83	SE 7	2967	2773	173	Blue	8
11 AM Wed	80	86	SE 7	3161	2966	366	Blue	11
12 Noon Wed	83	89	S 9	3354	3159	559	Blue	14
1 PM Wed	85	91	S 9	3484	3288	688	Blue	16
2 PM Wed	87	93	S 9	3667	3417	817	Blue	18
3 PM Wed	89	93	S 9	3667	3417	817	Blue	18
4 PM Wed	92	94	S 9	3761	3481	881	Blue	19
5 PM Wed	94	95	S 9	4018	3568	968	Blue	20
6 PM Wed	94	94	SW 12	3761	3481	881	Blue	19
7 PM Wed	92	92	SW 12	3572	3352	752	Blue	17
8 PM Wed	89	89	SW 12	3354	3159	559	Blue	14
9 PM Wed	87	87	SW 12	3225	3030	430	Blue	12
10 PM Wed	87	87	SW 12	3225	3030	430	Blue	12
11 PM Wed	85	85	SW 12	3096	2901	301	Blue	10
12 Midnight Thu	83	83	S 9	2967	2773	173	Blue	8
1 AM Thu	81	81	S 9	2838	2644	44	Blue	6
2 AM Thu	80	80	S 9	2774	2600	0	Blue	5
3 AM Thu	78	78	S 9	2645	2600	0	Blue	3
4 AM Thu	77	77	S 9	2581	2600	0	Blue	2
5 AM Thu	76	76	S 9	2515	2600	0	Blue	1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only. No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates. These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying. Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released. If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid. Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST). If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level. We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes. Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate. Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink. It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website. Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature.

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun. When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air. The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals. A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable. Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates.

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com