SoaringPredictor for South Mountain

Detailed Predictions for: South Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 1400

Sounding
Station:	KTUS
Date/Time:	18 MAR 2010
Temp/Wind data from:	NOAA Digital Forecast

Time (Local)	High Temp	Puddle Temp	Wind (mph)	Thermal Ceiling (ft)	Soaring Ceiling (ft)	Above Launch (ft)	Thermal Type	Thermal Index (F)
6 AM Thu	57	57	SE 8	2520	2600	0	Blue	1
7 AM Thu	56	56	SE 8	2486	2600	0	Blue	0
8 AM Thu	57	57	SE 8	2520	2600	0	Blue	1
9 AM Thu	58	60	SE 7	2605	2600	0	Blue	4
10 AM Thu	61	65	SE 7	2934	2660	60	Blue	9
11 AM Thu	64	69	SE 7	3236	3054	454	Blue	13
12 Noon Thu	68	74	SE 5	3867	3329	729	Blue	18
1 PM Thu	69	75	SE 5	4155	3376	776	Blue	19
2 PM Thu	71	76	SE 5	4442	3563	963	Blue	20
3 PM Thu	73	76	SW 7	4442	3563	963	Blue	20
4 PM Thu	75	77	SW 7	5025	3851	1251	Blue	21
5 PM Thu	77	77	SW 7	5025	3851	1251	Blue	21
6 PM Thu	77	77	W 9	5025	3851	1251	Blue	21
7 PM Thu	75	75	W 9	4155	3376	776	Blue	19
8 PM Thu	70	70	W 9	3283	3140	540	Blue	14
9 PM Thu	68	68	W 7	3189	2930	330	Blue	12
10 PM Thu	67	67	W 7	3142	2807	207	Blue	11
11 PM Thu	66	66	W 7	3058	2689	89	Blue	10
12 Midnight Fri	65	65	SW 7	2934	2660	60	Blue	9
1 AM Fri	64	64	SW 7	2809	2632	32	Blue	8
2 AM Fri	62	62	SW 7	2661	2600	0	Blue	6
3 AM Fri	62	62	SW 4	2661	2600	0	Blue	6
4 AM Fri	60	60	SW 4	2605	2600	0	Blue	4
5 AM Fri	59	59	SW 4	2576	2600	0	Blue	3
6 AM Fri	57	57	S 5	2520	2600	0	Blue	1
7 AM Fri	56	56	S 5	2486	2600	0	Blue	0
8 AM Fri	57	57	S 5	2520	2600	0	Blue	1
9 AM Fri	58	59	S 5	2576	2600	0	Blue	3
10 AM Fri	60	62	S 5	2661	2600	0	Blue	6
11 AM Fri	63	67	S 5	3142	2807	207	Blue	11
12 Noon Fri	66	70	SW 5	3283	3140	540	Blue	14
1 PM Fri	68	72	SW 5	3378	3234	634	Blue	16
2 PM Fri	69	73	SW 5	3576	3281	681	Blue	17
3 PM Fri	70	73	W 8	3576	3281	681	Blue	17
4 PM Fri	72	73	W 8	3576	3281	681	Blue	17
5 PM Fri	74	74	W 8	3867	3329	729	Blue	18
6 PM Fri	74	74	W 10	3867	3329	729	Blue	18
7 PM Fri	72	72	W 10	3378	3234	634	Blue	16
8 PM Fri	67	67	W 10	3142	2807	207	Blue	11
9 PM Fri	65	65	W 10	2934	2660	60	Blue	9
10 PM Fri	64	64	W 10	2809	2632	32	Blue	8
11 PM Fri	63	63	W 10	2689	2604	4	Blue	7
12 Midnight Sat	63	63	N 6	2689	2604	4	Blue	7
1 AM Sat	62	62	N 6	2661	2600	0	Blue	6
2 AM Sat	60	60	N 6	2605	2600	0	Blue	4
3 AM Sat	59	59	N 6	2576	2600	0	Blue	3
4 AM Sat	58	58	N 6	2548	2600	0	Blue	2
5 AM Sat	57	57	N 6	2520	2600	0	Blue	1
6 AM Sat	55	55	NE 8	0	2600	0	Blue	0
7 AM Sat	54	54	NE 8	0	2600	0	Blue	0
8 AM Sat	55	55	NE 8	0	2600	0	Blue	0
9 AM Sat	56	58	NE 8	2548	2600	0	Blue	2
10 AM Sat	58	62	NE 8	2661	2600	0	Blue	6
11 AM Sat	60	65	NE 8	2934	2660	60	Blue	9
12 Noon Sat	64	70	NE 6	3283	3140	540	Blue	14
1 PM Sat	65	71	NE 6	3330	3187	587	Blue	15
2 PM Sat	66	71	NE 6	3330	3187	587	Blue	15
3 PM Sat	68	72	NE 6	3378	3234	634	Blue	16
4 PM Sat	69	71	NE 6	3330	3187	587	Blue	15
5 PM Sat	71	71	NE 6	3330	3187	587	Blue	15
6 PM Sat	71	71	NW 8	3330	3187	587	Blue	15
7 PM Sat	69	69	NW 8	3236	3054	454	Blue	13
8 PM Sat	64	64	NW 8	2809	2632	32	Blue	8
9 PM Sat	62	62	NW 8	2661	2600	0	Blue	6
10 PM Sat	61	61	NW 8	2633	2600	0	Blue	5
11 PM Sat	60	60	NW 8	2605	2600	0	Blue	4
12 Midnight Sun	60	60	N 7	2605	2600	0	Blue	4
1 AM Sun	59	59	N 7	2576	2600	0	Blue	3
2 AM Sun	57	57	N 7	2520	2600	0	Blue	1
3 AM Sun	56	56	N 7	2486	2600	0	Blue	0
4 AM Sun	55	55	N 7	0	2600	0	Blue	0
5 AM Sun	54	54	N 7	0	2600	0	Blue	0
6 AM Sun	52	52	NE 9	0	2600	0	Blue	0
7 AM Sun	52	52	NE 9	0	2600	0	Blue	0
8 AM Sun	52	52	NE 9	0	2600	0	Blue	0
9 AM Sun	53	55	NE 9	0	2600	0	Blue	0
10 AM Sun	57	60	NE 9	2605	2600	0	Blue	4
11 AM Sun	60	65	NE 9	2934	2660	60	Blue	9
12 Noon Sun	65	71	NE 6	3330	3187	587	Blue	15
1 PM Sun	67	72	NE 6	3378	3234	634	Blue	16
2 PM Sun	68	73	NE 6	3576	3281	681	Blue	17
3 PM Sun	71	74	NE 6	3867	3329	729	Blue	18
4 PM Sun	73	75	NE 6	4155	3376	776	Blue	19
5 PM Sun	76	76	NE 6	4442	3563	963	Blue	20
6 PM Sun	76	76	NW 4	4442	3563	963	Blue	20
7 PM Sun	74	74	NW 4	3867	3329	729	Blue	18
8 PM Sun	68	68	NW 4	3189	2930	330	Blue	12
9 PM Sun	67	67	NW 4	3142	2807	207	Blue	11
10 PM Sun	65	65	NW 4	2934	2660	60	Blue	9
11 PM Sun	64	64	NW 4	2809	2632	32	Blue	8
12 Midnight Mon	64	64	N 6	2809	2632	32	Blue	8
1 AM Mon	63	63	N 6	2689	2604	4	Blue	7
2 AM Mon	61	61	N 6	2633	2600	0	Blue	5
3 AM Mon	60	60	N 6	2605	2600	0	Blue	4
4 AM Mon	58	58	N 6	2548	2600	0	Blue	2
5 AM Mon	57	57	N 6	2520	2600	0	Blue	1
6 AM Mon	55	55	NE 6	0	2600	0	Blue	0
7 AM Mon	55	55	NE 6	0	2600	0	Blue	0
8 AM Mon	55	55	NE 6	0	2600	0	Blue	0
9 AM Mon	56	57	NE 6	2520	2600	0	Blue	1
10 AM Mon	60	63	NE 6	2689	2604	4	Blue	7
11 AM Mon	62	66	NE 6	3058	2689	89	Blue	10
12 Noon Mon	67	72	W 8	3378	3234	634	Blue	16
1 PM Mon	69	74	W 8	3867	3329	729	Blue	18
2 PM Mon	70	74	W 8	3867	3329	729	Blue	18
3 PM Mon	72	75	W 8	4155	3376	776	Blue	19
4 PM Mon	74	75	W 8	4155	3376	776	Blue	19
5 PM Mon	77	77	W 8	5025	3851	1251	Blue	21
6 PM Mon	77	77	W 9	5025	3851	1251	Blue	21
7 PM Mon	75	75	W 9	4155	3376	776	Blue	19
8 PM Mon	69	69	W 9	3236	3054	454	Blue	13
9 PM Mon	68	68	W 9	3189	2930	330	Blue	12
10 PM Mon	66	66	W 9	3058	2689	89	Blue	10
11 PM Mon	65	65	W 9	2934	2660	60	Blue	9
12 Midnight Tue	65	65	SW 5	2934	2660	60	Blue	9
1 AM Tue	64	64	SW 5	2809	2632	32	Blue	8
2 AM Tue	62	62	SW 5	2661	2600	0	Blue	6
3 AM Tue	61	61	SW 5	2633	2600	0	Blue	5
4 AM Tue	59	59	SW 5	2576	2600	0	Blue	3
5 AM Tue	58	58	SW 5	2548	2600	0	Blue	2
6 AM Tue	56	56	S 9	2486	2600	0	Blue	0
7 AM Tue	55	55	S 9	0	2600	0	Blue	0
8 AM Tue	55	55	S 9	0	2600	0	Blue	0
9 AM Tue	56	57	S 9	2520	2600	0	Blue	1
10 AM Tue	59	62	S 9	2661	2600	0	Blue	6
11 AM Tue	61	65	S 9	2934	2660	60	Blue	9
12 Noon Tue	64	68	SW 11	3189	2930	330	Blue	12
1 PM Tue	65	69	SW 11	3236	3054	454	Blue	13
2 PM Tue	66	70	SW 11	3283	3140	540	Blue	14
3 PM Tue	67	70	SW 11	3283	3140	540	Blue	14
4 PM Tue	69	70	SW 11	3283	3140	540	Blue	14
5 PM Tue	70	70	SW 11	3283	3140	540	Blue	14
6 PM Tue	70	70	S 14	3283	3140	540	Blue	14
7 PM Tue	68	68	S 14	3189	2930	330	Blue	12
8 PM Tue	63	63	S 14	2689	2604	4	Blue	7
9 PM Tue	62	62	S 14	2661	2600	0	Blue	6
10 PM Tue	61	61	S 14	2633	2600	0	Blue	5
11 PM Tue	60	60	S 14	2605	2600	0	Blue	4
12 Midnight Wed	59	59	SW 7	2576	2600	0	Blue	3
1 AM Wed	59	59	SW 7	2576	2600	0	Blue	3
2 AM Wed	57	57	SW 7	2520	2600	0	Blue	1
3 AM Wed	56	56	SW 7	2486	2600	0	Blue	0
4 AM Wed	54	54	SW 7	0	2600	0	Blue	0
5 AM Wed	54	54	SW 7	0	2600	0	Blue	0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only. No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates. These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying. Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released. If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid. Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST). If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level. We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes. Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate. Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink. It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website. Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature.

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun. When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air. The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals. A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable. Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates.

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com