SoaringPredictor for South Mountain

Detailed Predictions for: South Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 2600
LZ Altitude (f): 1400

Sounding
Station:	KTUS
Date/Time:	11 MAR 2010
Temp/Wind data from:	NOAA Digital Forecast

Time (Local)	High Temp	Puddle Temp	Wind (mph)	Thermal Ceiling (ft)	Soaring Ceiling (ft)	Above Launch (ft)	Thermal Type	Thermal Index (F)
8 AM Thu	46	46	NW 7	3259	3048	448	White	5
9 AM Thu	50	52	NW 7	4573	4573	1973	White	11
10 AM Thu	51	54	NW 7	5007	5007	2407	White	13
11 AM Thu	54	58	NW 7	5861	5861	3261	White	17
12 Noon Thu	55	60	NW 7	6282	6282	3682	White	19
1 PM Thu	56	61	NW 7	6493	6493	3893	White	20
2 PM Thu	57	62	NW 7	6703	6703	4103	White	21
3 PM Thu	58	61	NW 7	6493	6493	3893	White	20
4 PM Thu	59	61	NW 7	6493	6493	3893	White	20
5 PM Thu	59	59	W 7	6072	6072	3472	White	18
6 PM Thu	57	57	W 7	5649	5649	3049	White	16
7 PM Thu	55	55	W 7	5221	5221	2621	White	14
8 PM Thu	53	53	W 5	4792	4792	2192	White	12
9 PM Thu	52	52	W 5	4573	4573	1973	White	11
10 PM Thu	52	52	W 5	4573	4573	1973	White	11
11 PM Thu	50	50	NW 1	4136	4136	1536	White	9
12 Midnight Fri	49	49	NW 1	3916	3588	988	White	8
1 AM Fri	49	49	NW 1	3916	3588	988	White	8
2 AM Fri	48	48	N 2	3697	3408	808	White	7
3 AM Fri	48	48	N 2	3697	3408	808	White	7
4 AM Fri	48	48	N 2	3697	3408	808	White	7
5 AM Fri	47	47	E 4	3478	3228	628	White	6
6 AM Fri	48	48	E 4	3697	3408	808	White	7
7 AM Fri	47	47	E 4	3478	3228	628	White	6
8 AM Fri	49	49	E 3	3916	3588	988	White	8
9 AM Fri	55	57	E 3	5649	5649	3049	White	16
10 AM Fri	58	61	E 3	6493	6493	3893	White	20
11 AM Fri	63	68	NE 2	7946	7946	5346	White	27
12 Noon Fri	64	69	NE 2	8151	8151	5551	White	28
1 PM Fri	65	70	NE 2	8355	8355	5755	White	29
2 PM Fri	67	72	N 5	8762	8762	6162	White	31
3 PM Fri	69	72	N 5	8762	8762	6162	White	31
4 PM Fri	71	73	N 5	8965	8965	6365	White	32
5 PM Fri	70	70	W 7	8355	8355	5755	White	29
6 PM Fri	67	67	W 7	7742	7742	5142	White	26
7 PM Fri	63	63	W 7	6912	6912	4312	White	22
8 PM Fri	61	61	W 7	6493	6493	3893	White	20
9 PM Fri	59	59	W 7	6072	6072	3472	White	18
10 PM Fri	58	58	W 7	5861	5861	3261	White	17
11 PM Fri	55	55	SW 4	5221	5221	2621	White	14
12 Midnight Sat	54	54	SW 4	5007	5007	2407	White	13
1 AM Sat	54	54	SW 4	5007	5007	2407	White	13
2 AM Sat	53	53	SW 4	4792	4792	2192	White	12
3 AM Sat	52	52	SW 4	4573	4573	1973	White	11
4 AM Sat	52	52	SW 4	4573	4573	1973	White	11
5 AM Sat	51	51	SE 3	4355	4355	1755	White	10
6 AM Sat	53	53	SE 3	4792	4792	2192	White	12
7 AM Sat	50	50	SE 3	4136	4136	1536	White	9
8 AM Sat	51	51	SE 3	4355	4355	1755	White	10
9 AM Sat	56	57	SE 3	5649	5649	3049	White	16
10 AM Sat	58	61	SE 3	6493	6493	3893	White	20
11 AM Sat	61	65	S 6	7329	7329	4729	White	24
12 Noon Sat	62	66	S 6	7536	7536	4936	White	25
1 PM Sat	63	67	S 6	7742	7742	5142	White	26
2 PM Sat	65	69	S 6	8151	8151	5551	White	28
3 PM Sat	66	69	S 6	8151	8151	5551	White	28
4 PM Sat	67	68	S 6	7946	7946	5346	White	27
5 PM Sat	67	67	W 9	7742	7742	5142	White	26
6 PM Sat	65	65	W 9	7329	7329	4729	White	24
7 PM Sat	62	62	W 9	6703	6703	4103	White	21
8 PM Sat	61	61	W 9	6493	6493	3893	White	20
9 PM Sat	59	59	W 9	6072	6072	3472	White	18
10 PM Sat	58	58	W 9	5861	5861	3261	White	17
11 PM Sat	56	56	W 9	5436	5436	2836	White	15
12 Midnight Sun	56	56	W 9	5436	5436	2836	White	15
1 AM Sun	56	56	W 9	5436	5436	2836	White	15
2 AM Sun	55	55	W 9	5221	5221	2621	White	14
3 AM Sun	54	54	W 9	5007	5007	2407	White	13
4 AM Sun	54	54	W 9	5007	5007	2407	White	13
5 AM Sun	53	53	NW 9	4792	4792	2192	White	12
6 AM Sun	55	55	NW 9	5221	5221	2621	White	14
7 AM Sun	53	53	NW 9	4792	4792	2192	White	12
8 AM Sun	54	54	NW 9	5007	5007	2407	White	13
9 AM Sun	57	58	NW 9	5861	5861	3261	White	17
10 AM Sun	58	60	NW 9	6282	6282	3682	White	19
11 AM Sun	61	64	N 11	7120	7120	4520	White	23
12 Noon Sun	62	66	N 11	7536	7536	4936	White	25
1 PM Sun	62	66	N 11	7536	7536	4936	White	25
2 PM Sun	64	67	N 11	7742	7742	5142	White	26
3 PM Sun	64	66	N 11	7536	7536	4936	White	25
4 PM Sun	65	66	N 11	7536	7536	4936	White	25
5 PM Sun	65	65	N 13	7329	7329	4729	White	24
6 PM Sun	63	63	N 13	6912	6912	4312	White	22
7 PM Sun	60	60	N 13	6282	6282	3682	White	19
8 PM Sun	59	59	N 13	6072	6072	3472	White	18
9 PM Sun	57	57	N 13	5649	5649	3049	White	16
10 PM Sun	56	56	N 13	5436	5436	2836	White	15
11 PM Sun	54	54	N 12	5007	5007	2407	White	13
12 Midnight Mon	54	54	N 12	5007	5007	2407	White	13
1 AM Mon	54	54	N 12	5007	5007	2407	White	13
2 AM Mon	53	53	N 12	4792	4792	2192	White	12
3 AM Mon	52	52	N 12	4573	4573	1973	White	11
4 AM Mon	52	52	N 12	4573	4573	1973	White	11
5 AM Mon	51	51	N 10	4355	4355	1755	White	10
6 AM Mon	53	53	N 10	4792	4792	2192	White	12
7 AM Mon	51	51	N 10	4355	4355	1755	White	10
8 AM Mon	53	53	N 10	4792	4792	2192	White	12
9 AM Mon	59	60	N 10	6282	6282	3682	White	19
10 AM Mon	61	64	N 10	7120	7120	4520	White	23
11 AM Mon	66	70	N 7	8355	8355	5755	White	29
12 Noon Mon	68	73	N 7	8965	8965	6365	White	32
1 PM Mon	68	73	N 7	8965	8965	6365	White	32
2 PM Mon	71	75	N 7	9367	9367	6767	White	34
3 PM Mon	72	75	N 7	9367	9367	6767	White	34
4 PM Mon	74	76	N 7	9568	9568	6968	White	35
5 PM Mon	73	73	N 5	8965	8965	6365	White	32
6 PM Mon	70	70	N 5	8355	8355	5755	White	29
7 PM Mon	66	66	N 5	7536	7536	4936	White	25
8 PM Mon	64	64	N 5	7120	7120	4520	White	23
9 PM Mon	62	62	N 5	6703	6703	4103	White	21
10 PM Mon	61	61	N 5	6493	6493	3893	White	20
11 PM Mon	58	58	NE 7	5861	5861	3261	White	17
12 Midnight Tue	57	57	NE 7	5649	5649	3049	White	16
1 AM Tue	57	57	NE 7	5649	5649	3049	White	16
2 AM Tue	56	56	NE 7	5436	5436	2836	White	15
3 AM Tue	55	55	NE 7	5221	5221	2621	White	14
4 AM Tue	55	55	NE 7	5221	5221	2621	White	14
5 AM Tue	54	54	E 9	5007	5007	2407	White	13
6 AM Tue	56	56	E 9	5436	5436	2836	White	15
7 AM Tue	53	53	E 9	4792	4792	2192	White	12
8 AM Tue	55	55	E 9	5221	5221	2621	White	14
9 AM Tue	59	61	E 9	6493	6493	3893	White	20
10 AM Tue	62	65	E 9	7329	7329	4729	White	24
11 AM Tue	66	71	E 6	8559	8559	5959	White	30
12 Noon Tue	67	72	E 6	8762	8762	6162	White	31
1 PM Tue	67	72	E 6	8762	8762	6162	White	31
2 PM Tue	69	74	E 6	9166	9166	6566	White	33
3 PM Tue	70	73	E 6	8965	8965	6365	White	32
4 PM Tue	72	74	E 6	9166	9166	6566	White	33
5 PM Tue	71	71	SE 4	8559	8559	5959	White	30
6 PM Tue	69	69	SE 4	8151	8151	5551	White	28
7 PM Tue	66	66	SE 4	7536	7536	4936	White	25
8 PM Tue	64	64	SE 4	7120	7120	4520	White	23
9 PM Tue	63	63	SE 4	6912	6912	4312	White	22
10 PM Tue	62	62	SE 4	6703	6703	4103	White	21
11 PM Tue	59	59	E 7	6072	6072	3472	White	18
12 Midnight Wed	58	58	E 7	5861	5861	3261	White	17
1 AM Wed	58	58	E 7	5861	5861	3261	White	17
2 AM Wed	57	57	E 7	5649	5649	3049	White	16
3 AM Wed	57	57	E 7	5649	5649	3049	White	16
4 AM Wed	56	56	E 7	5436	5436	2836	White	15
5 AM Wed	56	56	E 10	5436	5436	2836	White	15
6 AM Wed	57	57	E 10	5649	5649	3049	White	16
7 AM Wed	55	55	E 10	5221	5221	2621	White	14

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only. No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates. These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying. Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released. If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid. Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST). If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level. We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes. Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate. Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink. It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website. Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature.

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun. When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air. The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals. A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable. Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates.

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com