Detailed Predictions for: Shaw Butte
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 1050
Sounding

Station:

 KTUS

Date/Time:

 11 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
8 AM Thu 46 46 N 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 51 53 N 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 56 59 N 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 59 63 NW 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 60 65 NW 7 1371 2150 0 White 0
1 PM Thu 60 65 NW 7 1371 2150 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 62 66 W 7 1602 2150 0 White 0
3 PM Thu 61 64 W 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 65 67 W 7 1833 2150 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 63 63 W 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 61 61 W 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 58 58 W 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 56 56 NW 5 1299 2150 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 54 54 NW 5 1299 2150 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 52 52 NW 5 1299 2150 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 52 52 N 2 1299 2150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 N 2 1299 2150 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 49 49 N 2 1299 2150 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 48 48 NE 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 46 46 NE 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 47 47 NE 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 49 49 NE 4 1299 2150 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 48 48 NE 4 1299 2150 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 NE 4 1299 2150 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 49 49 SE 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 55 57 SE 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 61 64 SE 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
11 AM Fri 64 69 S 2 2293 2293 143 White 0
12 Noon Fri 66 71 S 2 2735 2735 585 White 25
1 PM Fri 65 70 S 2 2522 2522 372 White 23
2 PM Fri 68 73 SW 5 3156 3156 1006 White 27
3 PM Fri 67 70 SW 5 2522 2522 372 White 23
4 PM Fri 72 74 SW 5 3366 3366 1216 White 28
5 PM Fri 69 69 W 7 2293 2293 143 White 0
6 PM Fri 67 67 W 7 1833 2150 0 White 0
7 PM Fri 64 64 W 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
8 PM Fri 61 61 W 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
9 PM Fri 58 58 W 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
10 PM Fri 56 56 W 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
11 PM Fri 55 55 N 5 1299 2150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 N 5 1299 2150 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 52 52 N 5 1299 2150 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 50 50 N 5 1299 2150 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 49 49 N 5 1299 2150 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 48 48 N 5 1299 2150 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 51 51 E 4 1299 2150 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 50 50 E 4 1299 2150 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 E 4 1299 2150 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 51 51 E 4 1299 2150 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 57 58 E 4 1299 2150 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 62 65 E 4 1371 2150 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 65 69 S 6 2293 2293 143 White 0
12 Noon Sat 66 70 S 6 2522 2522 372 White 23
1 PM Sat 66 70 S 6 2522 2522 372 White 23
2 PM Sat 68 72 S 6 2945 2945 795 White 26
3 PM Sat 68 71 S 6 2735 2735 585 White 25
4 PM Sat 72 73 S 6 3156 3156 1006 White 27
5 PM Sat 70 70 SW 9 2522 2522 372 White 23
6 PM Sat 68 68 SW 9 2063 2150 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 65 65 SW 9 1371 2150 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 62 62 SW 9 1299 2150 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 60 60 SW 9 1299 2150 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 58 58 SW 9 1299 2150 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 57 57 NW 10 1299 2150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 NW 10 1299 2150 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 55 55 NW 10 1299 2150 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 53 53 NW 10 1299 2150 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 52 52 NW 10 1299 2150 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 51 51 NW 10 1299 2150 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 53 53 N 10 1299 2150 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 52 52 N 10 1299 2150 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 51 51 N 10 1299 2150 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 53 53 N 10 1299 2150 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 57 58 N 10 1299 2150 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 61 63 N 10 1299 2150 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 64 67 N 11 1833 2150 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 65 69 N 11 2293 2293 143 White 0
1 PM Sun 64 68 N 11 2063 2150 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 66 69 N 11 2293 2293 143 White 0
3 PM Sun 66 68 N 11 2063 2150 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 69 70 N 11 2522 2522 372 White 23
5 PM Sun 67 67 N 11 1833 2150 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 65 65 N 11 1371 2150 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 62 62 N 11 1299 2150 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 59 59 N 11 1299 2150 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 57 57 N 11 1299 2150 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 56 56 N 11 1299 2150 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 55 55 N 10 1299 2150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 N 10 1299 2150 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 N 10 1299 2150 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 51 51 N 10 1299 2150 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 50 50 N 10 1299 2150 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 49 49 N 10 1299 2150 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 52 52 N 9 1299 2150 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 51 51 N 9 1299 2150 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 50 50 N 9 1299 2150 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 52 52 N 9 1299 2150 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 58 59 N 9 1299 2150 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 64 67 N 9 1833 2150 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 67 71 N 6 2735 2735 585 White 25
12 Noon Mon 68 73 N 6 3156 3156 1006 White 27
1 PM Mon 68 73 N 6 3156 3156 1006 White 27
2 PM Mon 70 74 N 6 3366 3366 1216 White 28
3 PM Mon 70 73 N 6 3156 3156 1006 White 27
4 PM Mon 74 76 N 6 3786 3786 1636 White 30
5 PM Mon 72 72 N 4 2945 2945 795 White 26
6 PM Mon 70 70 N 4 2522 2522 372 White 23
7 PM Mon 67 67 N 4 1833 2150 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 64 64 N 4 1299 2150 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 62 62 N 4 1299 2150 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 60 60 N 4 1299 2150 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 59 59 NE 5 1299 2150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 58 NE 5 1299 2150 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 57 57 NE 5 1299 2150 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 55 55 NE 5 1299 2150 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 54 54 NE 5 1299 2150 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 53 53 NE 5 1299 2150 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 56 56 NE 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 NE 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 NE 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 56 56 NE 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 62 63 NE 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 67 70 NE 6 2522 2522 372 White 23
11 AM Tue 70 74 SE 6 3366 3366 1216 White 28
12 Noon Tue 71 76 SE 6 3786 3786 1636 White 30
1 PM Tue 71 76 SE 6 3786 3786 1636 White 30
2 PM Tue 73 78 SE 6 4206 4206 2056 White 32
3 PM Tue 73 76 SE 6 3786 3786 1636 White 30
4 PM Tue 77 79 SE 6 4415 4415 2265 White 33
5 PM Tue 75 75 S 5 3576 3576 1426 White 29
6 PM Tue 72 72 S 5 2945 2945 795 White 26
7 PM Tue 69 69 S 5 2293 2293 143 White 0
8 PM Tue 66 66 S 5 1602 2150 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 64 64 S 5 1299 2150 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 62 62 S 5 1299 2150 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 61 61 SE 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 SE 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 58 58 SE 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 56 56 SE 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 55 55 SE 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 54 54 SE 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 57 57 NE 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 NE 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 55 55 NE 6 1299 2150 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com