Detailed Predictions for: Shaw Butte
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 1050
Sounding

Station:

 KTUS

Date/Time:

 3 SEP 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
6 AM Fri 79 79 NE 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 78 78 NE 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 80 81 NE 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 88 90 E 7 3021 2826 676 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 92 96 E 7 3403 3208 1058 Blue 14
11 AM Fri 97 103 E 7 4796 3726 1576 Blue 21
12 Noon Fri 100 106 SE 10 7076 4712 2562 Blue 24
1 PM Fri 105 111 SE 10 11727 8394 6244 White 29
2 PM Fri 108 113 SE 10 12135 12135 9985 White 31
3 PM Fri 109 113 SE 10 12135 12135 9985 White 31
4 PM Fri 110 112 SE 10 11931 9328 7178 White 30
5 PM Fri 110 111 SE 10 11727 8394 6244 White 29
6 PM Fri 108 108 SE 6 8625 6238 4088 Blue 26
7 PM Fri 105 105 SE 6 6357 4206 2056 Blue 23
8 PM Fri 100 100 SE 6 3734 3463 1313 Blue 18
9 PM Fri 97 97 E 6 3467 3272 1122 Blue 15
10 PM Fri 95 95 E 6 3340 3144 994 Blue 13
11 PM Fri 93 93 E 6 3212 3017 867 Blue 11
12 Midnight Sat 90 90 NE 7 3021 2826 676 Blue 8
1 AM Sat 89 89 NE 7 2957 2763 613 Blue 8
2 AM Sat 86 86 NE 7 2766 2573 423 Blue 5
3 AM Sat 85 85 NE 7 2703 2508 358 Blue 4
4 AM Sat 83 83 NE 7 2576 2470 320 Blue 2
5 AM Sat 82 82 NE 7 2510 2470 320 Blue 1
6 AM Sat 81 81 E 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 80 80 E 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 82 83 E 7 2576 2470 320 Blue 2
9 AM Sat 88 90 E 8 3021 2826 676 Blue 8
10 AM Sat 92 96 E 8 3403 3208 1058 Blue 14
11 AM Sat 96 101 E 8 3919 3540 1390 Blue 19
12 Noon Sat 99 105 SE 8 6357 4206 2056 Blue 23
1 PM Sat 104 110 SE 8 11522 7621 5471 White 28
2 PM Sat 106 111 SE 8 11727 8394 6244 White 29
3 PM Sat 107 111 S 6 11727 8394 6244 White 29
4 PM Sat 108 110 S 6 11522 7621 5471 White 28
5 PM Sat 108 109 S 6 9564 6948 4798 Blue 27
6 PM Sat 106 106 SW 5 7076 4712 2562 Blue 24
7 PM Sat 104 104 SW 5 5592 3892 1742 Blue 22
8 PM Sat 99 99 SW 5 3640 3399 1249 Blue 17
9 PM Sat 96 96 SW 5 3403 3208 1058 Blue 14
10 PM Sat 94 94 SW 5 3276 3081 931 Blue 12
11 PM Sat 92 92 SW 5 3148 2953 803 Blue 10
12 Midnight Sun 89 89 SE 3 2957 2763 613 Blue 8
1 AM Sun 88 88 SE 3 2893 2699 549 Blue 7
2 AM Sun 85 85 SE 3 2703 2508 358 Blue 4
3 AM Sun 85 85 SE 3 2703 2508 358 Blue 4
4 AM Sun 83 83 SE 3 2576 2470 320 Blue 2
5 AM Sun 82 82 SE 3 2510 2470 320 Blue 1
6 AM Sun 81 81 E 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 80 80 E 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 82 83 E 5 2576 2470 320 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 88 90 E 5 3021 2826 676 Blue 8
10 AM Sun 92 96 E 5 3403 3208 1058 Blue 14
11 AM Sun 96 101 E 5 3919 3540 1390 Blue 19
12 Noon Sun 99 105 S 8 6357 4206 2056 Blue 23
1 PM Sun 103 109 S 8 9564 6948 4798 Blue 27
2 PM Sun 106 111 S 8 11727 8394 6244 White 29
3 PM Sun 106 110 S 8 11522 7621 5471 White 28
4 PM Sun 107 109 S 8 9564 6948 4798 Blue 27
5 PM Sun 107 108 S 8 8625 6238 4088 Blue 26
6 PM Sun 104 104 SW 10 5592 3892 1742 Blue 22
7 PM Sun 102 102 SW 10 4237 3633 1483 Blue 20
8 PM Sun 97 97 SW 10 3467 3272 1122 Blue 15
9 PM Sun 94 94 SW 10 3276 3081 931 Blue 12
10 PM Sun 92 92 SW 10 3148 2953 803 Blue 10
11 PM Sun 89 89 SW 10 2957 2763 613 Blue 8
12 Midnight Mon 86 86 S 8 2766 2573 423 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 85 85 S 8 2703 2508 358 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 82 82 S 8 2510 2470 320 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 81 81 S 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 79 79 S 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 78 78 S 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 77 77 SE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 76 76 SE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 78 79 SE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 84 86 SE 5 2766 2573 423 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 87 91 SE 5 3084 2890 740 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 91 96 SE 5 3403 3208 1058 Blue 14
12 Noon Mon 93 99 S 6 3640 3399 1249 Blue 17
1 PM Mon 98 104 S 6 5592 3892 1742 Blue 22
2 PM Mon 100 105 S 6 6357 4206 2056 Blue 23
3 PM Mon 101 105 S 6 6357 4206 2056 Blue 23
4 PM Mon 101 103 S 6 4796 3726 1576 Blue 21
5 PM Mon 101 102 S 6 4237 3633 1483 Blue 20
6 PM Mon 99 99 W 7 3640 3399 1249 Blue 17
7 PM Mon 97 97 W 7 3467 3272 1122 Blue 15
8 PM Mon 92 92 W 7 3148 2953 803 Blue 10
9 PM Mon 89 89 W 7 2957 2763 613 Blue 8
10 PM Mon 87 87 W 7 2830 2636 486 Blue 6
11 PM Mon 85 85 W 7 2703 2508 358 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 82 82 S 6 2510 2470 320 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 81 81 S 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 78 78 S 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 78 78 S 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 76 76 S 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 75 75 S 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 74 74 E 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 73 73 E 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 75 76 E 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 81 83 E 5 2576 2470 320 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 84 88 E 5 2893 2699 549 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 88 93 E 5 3212 3017 867 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 91 97 S 7 3467 3272 1122 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 95 101 S 7 3919 3540 1390 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 98 103 S 7 4796 3726 1576 Blue 21
3 PM Tue 99 103 S 7 4796 3726 1576 Blue 21
4 PM Tue 99 101 S 7 3919 3540 1390 Blue 19
5 PM Tue 99 100 S 7 3734 3463 1313 Blue 18
6 PM Tue 97 97 SW 9 3467 3272 1122 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 95 95 SW 9 3340 3144 994 Blue 13
8 PM Tue 90 90 SW 9 3021 2826 676 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 88 88 SW 9 2893 2699 549 Blue 7
10 PM Tue 86 86 SW 9 2766 2573 423 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 84 84 SW 9 2639 2470 320 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 81 81 SE 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 80 80 SE 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 77 77 SE 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 77 77 SE 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 75 75 SE 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 74 74 SE 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 73 73 E 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 72 72 E 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 74 75 E 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 80 83 E 5 2576 2470 320 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 84 89 E 5 2957 2763 613 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 88 94 E 5 3276 3081 931 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 91 97 S 7 3467 3272 1122 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 95 101 S 7 3919 3540 1390 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 98 103 S 7 4796 3726 1576 Blue 21
3 PM Wed 98 102 S 7 4237 3633 1483 Blue 20
4 PM Wed 99 101 S 7 3919 3540 1390 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 99 100 S 7 3734 3463 1313 Blue 18
6 PM Wed 97 97 SW 10 3467 3272 1122 Blue 15
7 PM Wed 95 95 SW 10 3340 3144 994 Blue 13
8 PM Wed 90 90 SW 10 3021 2826 676 Blue 8
9 PM Wed 88 88 SW 10 2893 2699 549 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 86 86 SW 10 2766 2573 423 Blue 5
11 PM Wed 84 84 SW 10 2639 2470 320 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 81 81 S 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 80 80 S 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 77 77 S 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 77 77 S 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 75 75 S 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 74 74 S 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com