Detailed Predictions for: Shaw Butte
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 1050
Sounding

Station:

 KTUS

Date/Time:

 4 FEB 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Sat 45 45 NE 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 45 45 NE 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 43 43 NE 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 43 43 NE 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 49 49 NE 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 57 58 NE 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 61 63 NE 5 1299 2150 0 White 0
12 Noon Sat 65 67 NE 5 1299 2150 0 White 0
1 PM Sat 67 70 NE 5 1299 2150 0 White 0
2 PM Sat 68 70 E 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
3 PM Sat 69 70 E 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
4 PM Sat 70 70 E 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 69 69 NW 2 1299 2150 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 66 66 NW 2 1299 2150 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 63 63 NW 2 1299 2150 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 60 60 N 5 1299 2150 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 58 58 N 5 1299 2150 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 56 56 N 5 1299 2150 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 54 54 N 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 N 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 52 52 N 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 51 51 N 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 49 49 N 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 49 49 N 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 47 47 NE 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 47 47 NE 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 NE 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 45 45 NE 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 51 51 NE 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 58 59 NE 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 62 63 E 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 65 67 E 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 67 69 E 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 68 69 E 8 1299 2150 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 69 70 E 8 1299 2150 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 70 70 E 8 1299 2150 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 69 69 NE 1 1299 2150 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 66 66 NE 1 1299 2150 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 63 63 NE 1 1299 2150 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 60 60 NE 1 1299 2150 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 58 58 NE 1 1299 2150 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 56 56 NE 1 1299 2150 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 54 54 NE 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 NE 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 NE 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 51 51 NE 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 49 49 NE 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 49 49 NE 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 47 47 NE 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 47 47 NE 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 45 45 NE 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 45 45 NE 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 50 50 NE 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 57 58 NE 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 61 62 E 2 1299 2150 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 63 65 E 2 1299 2150 0 White 0
1 PM Mon 66 68 E 2 1299 2150 0 White 0
2 PM Mon 66 67 E 2 1299 2150 0 White 0
3 PM Mon 67 68 E 2 1299 2150 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 68 68 E 2 1299 2150 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 67 67 W 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 65 65 W 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 61 61 W 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 59 59 W 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 57 57 W 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 55 55 W 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 54 54 N 2 1299 2150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 N 2 1299 2150 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 51 51 N 2 1299 2150 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 N 2 1299 2150 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 49 49 N 2 1299 2150 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 N 2 1299 2150 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 NE 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 47 47 NE 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 NE 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 45 45 NE 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 51 51 NE 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 58 59 NE 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 62 63 E 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 65 67 E 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 67 69 E 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 68 69 E 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
3 PM Tue 69 70 E 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 70 70 E 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 69 69 W 2 1299 2150 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 66 66 W 2 1299 2150 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 63 63 W 2 1299 2150 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 61 61 W 2 1299 2150 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 59 59 W 2 1299 2150 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 57 57 W 2 1299 2150 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 55 55 N 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 N 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 52 52 N 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 51 51 N 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 50 50 N 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 49 49 N 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 48 48 NE 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 NE 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 46 46 NE 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 46 46 NE 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 51 51 NE 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 57 57 NE 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 60 61 E 1 1299 2150 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 63 64 E 1 1299 2150 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 65 66 E 1 1299 2150 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 66 67 E 1 1299 2150 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 67 68 E 1 1299 2150 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 67 67 E 1 1299 2150 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 67 67 W 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 64 64 W 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 60 60 W 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 58 58 W 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 57 57 W 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 55 55 W 6 1299 2150 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 53 53 N 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 N 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 51 51 N 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 50 50 N 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 49 49 N 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 48 48 N 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 47 47 NE 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 47 47 NE 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 45 45 NE 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 45 45 NE 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 51 51 NE 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 58 59 NE 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 62 63 NE 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 65 67 NE 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
1 PM Thu 67 69 NE 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 68 69 NE 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
3 PM Thu 69 70 NE 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 70 70 NE 3 1299 2150 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 69 69 SW 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 66 66 SW 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 62 62 SW 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 60 60 SW 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 58 58 SW 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 55 55 SW 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 54 54 N 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 N 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 51 51 N 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 50 50 N 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 49 49 N 7 1299 2150 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 48 48 N 7 1299 2150 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com