Detailed Predictions for: Shaw Butte
Launch Altitude (f): 2150
LZ Altitude (f): 1050
Sounding

Station:

 KTUS

Date/Time:

 20 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
6 AM Sat 54 54 NE 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 53 53 NE 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 52 NE 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 57 NE 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 61 65 NE 7 3025 2790 640 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 64 69 NE 7 3797 3133 983 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 68 74 NE 9 6343 5101 2951 White 15
1 PM Sat 70 76 NE 9 6763 6048 3898 White 16
2 PM Sat 72 77 NE 9 6973 6973 4823 White 17
3 PM Sat 73 77 NE 6 6973 6973 4823 White 17
4 PM Sat 74 76 NE 6 6763 6048 3898 White 16
5 PM Sat 73 73 NE 6 6122 4440 2290 Blue 14
6 PM Sat 73 73 NW 4 6122 4440 2290 Blue 14
7 PM Sat 72 72 NW 4 5658 3779 1629 Blue 13
8 PM Sat 68 68 NW 4 3581 3020 870 Blue 9
9 PM Sat 65 65 NE 5 3025 2790 640 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 62 62 NE 5 2794 2470 320 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 60 60 NE 5 2640 2470 320 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 58 58 NE 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 56 NE 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 55 55 NE 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 53 53 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 52 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 50 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 50 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 49 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 48 NE 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 55 NE 4 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 60 63 NE 4 2871 2636 486 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 65 70 NE 4 4518 3349 1199 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 71 77 E 4 6973 6973 4823 White 17
1 PM Sun 73 79 E 4 7392 7392 5242 White 19
2 PM Sun 76 81 E 4 7807 7807 5657 White 21
3 PM Sun 78 81 E 1 7807 7807 5657 White 21
4 PM Sun 79 81 E 1 7807 7807 5657 White 21
5 PM Sun 78 78 E 1 7183 7183 5033 White 18
6 PM Sun 78 78 W 4 7183 7183 5033 White 18
7 PM Sun 77 77 W 4 6973 6973 4823 White 17
8 PM Sun 73 73 W 4 6122 4440 2290 Blue 14
9 PM Sun 70 70 W 4 4518 3349 1199 Blue 11
10 PM Sun 67 67 W 4 3364 2943 793 Blue 8
11 PM Sun 65 65 W 4 3025 2790 640 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 63 63 N 4 2871 2636 486 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 61 61 N 4 2717 2470 320 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 60 60 N 4 2640 2470 320 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 58 58 N 4 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 57 N 4 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 55 N 4 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 55 NE 4 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 NE 4 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 53 NE 4 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 59 NE 4 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 65 68 NE 4 3581 3020 870 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 70 74 NE 4 6343 5101 2951 White 15
12 Noon Mon 76 81 SE 6 7807 7807 5657 White 21
1 PM Mon 78 83 SE 6 8221 8221 6071 White 23
2 PM Mon 81 85 SE 6 8630 8630 6480 White 25
3 PM Mon 83 86 SE 6 8834 8834 6684 White 26
4 PM Mon 84 85 SE 6 8630 8630 6480 White 25
5 PM Mon 83 83 SE 6 8221 8221 6071 White 23
6 PM Mon 83 83 SW 8 8221 8221 6071 White 23
7 PM Mon 81 81 SW 8 7807 7807 5657 White 21
8 PM Mon 77 77 SW 8 6973 6973 4823 White 17
9 PM Mon 73 73 SW 8 6122 4440 2290 Blue 14
10 PM Mon 69 69 SW 8 3797 3133 983 Blue 10
11 PM Mon 66 66 SW 8 3147 2866 716 Blue 7
12 Midnight Tue 64 64 SW 3 2948 2713 563 Blue 5
1 AM Tue 62 62 SW 3 2794 2470 320 Blue 3
2 AM Tue 60 60 SW 3 2640 2470 320 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 58 58 SW 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 57 57 SW 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 55 SW 3 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 54 E 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 53 53 E 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 52 E 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 57 E 5 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 62 64 E 5 2948 2713 563 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 66 69 E 5 3797 3133 983 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 70 74 S 7 6343 5101 2951 White 15
1 PM Tue 72 76 S 7 6763 6048 3898 White 16
2 PM Tue 74 77 S 7 6973 6973 4823 White 17
3 PM Tue 76 78 S 7 7183 7183 5033 White 18
4 PM Tue 77 78 S 7 7183 7183 5033 White 18
5 PM Tue 76 76 S 7 6763 6048 3898 White 16
6 PM Tue 76 76 SW 9 6763 6048 3898 White 16
7 PM Tue 74 74 SW 9 6343 5101 2951 White 15
8 PM Tue 70 70 SW 9 4518 3349 1199 Blue 11
9 PM Tue 67 67 SW 9 3364 2943 793 Blue 8
10 PM Tue 64 64 SW 9 2948 2713 563 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 61 61 SW 9 2717 2470 320 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 W 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 57 W 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 56 W 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 W 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 53 W 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 W 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 50 NE 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 NE 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 48 NE 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 53 NE 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 60 NE 8 2640 2470 320 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 63 66 NE 8 3147 2866 716 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 67 71 W 8 5173 3564 1414 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 69 73 W 8 6122 4440 2290 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 71 74 W 8 6343 5101 2951 White 15
3 PM Wed 73 75 W 8 6554 5589 3439 White 16
4 PM Wed 74 75 W 8 6554 5589 3439 White 16
5 PM Wed 73 73 W 8 6122 4440 2290 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 73 73 W 9 6122 4440 2290 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 72 72 W 9 5658 3779 1629 Blue 13
8 PM Wed 68 68 W 9 3581 3020 870 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 65 65 W 9 3025 2790 640 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 62 62 W 9 2794 2470 320 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 60 60 W 9 2640 2470 320 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 N 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 56 N 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 N 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 53 53 N 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 52 N 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 50 N 8 0 2150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 50 NE 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 49 NE 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 48 NE 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 53 55 NE 7 0 2150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 59 62 NE 7 2794 2470 320 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 64 68 NE 7 3581 3020 870 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 69 74 W 6 6343 5101 2951 White 15
1 PM Thu 72 77 W 6 6973 6973 4823 White 17
2 PM Thu 74 78 W 6 7183 7183 5033 White 18
3 PM Thu 76 79 W 6 7392 7392 5242 White 19
4 PM Thu 77 79 W 6 7392 7392 5242 White 19
5 PM Thu 76 76 W 6 6763 6048 3898 White 16
6 PM Thu 76 76 W 5 6763 6048 3898 White 16
7 PM Thu 74 74 W 5 6343 5101 2951 White 15
8 PM Thu 71 71 W 5 5173 3564 1414 Blue 12
9 PM Thu 68 68 W 5 3581 3020 870 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 65 65 W 5 3025 2790 640 Blue 6
11 PM Thu 62 62 W 5 2794 2470 320 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 W 6 2640 2470 320 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 58 58 W 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 57 W 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 55 W 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 54 W 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 W 6 0 2150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com