Detailed Predictions for: Rainbow Valley
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.18816, -112.37519, 1125
LZ Altitude (f): 80
Sounding

Station:

KTUS

Date/Time:

28 MAR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 ESE 3 6 1122 1125 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 63 63 ESE 3 8 1122 1125 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 62 62 ESE 4 9 1122 1125 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 61 61 ESE 3 7 1122 1125 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 60 60 E 3 7 1122 1125 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 60 60 E 3 6 1122 1125 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 55 55 SE 3 7 1122 1125 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 59 59 E 3 8 1122 1125 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 61 62 E 4 8 1122 1125 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 64 65 E 4 5 1122 1125 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 66 69 E 4 5 1122 1125 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 68 73 E 5 6 1122 1125 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 71 77 ESE 5 6 1122 1125 0 White 0
1 PM Thu 73 80 SE 6 7 1122 1125 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 75 81 SSE 6 7 1122 1125 0 White 0
3 PM Thu 76 80 S 5 5 1122 1125 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 77 79 SSW 5 6 1122 1125 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 78 79 SW 6 7 1122 1125 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 77 77 SW 8 9 1122 1125 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 75 75 SW 7 9 1122 1125 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 73 73 SSW 7 12 1122 1125 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 71 71 SW 6 12 1122 1125 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 70 70 WSW 5 11 1122 1125 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 69 69 SW 5 12 1122 1125 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 68 68 SW 5 11 1122 1125 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 67 67 SSW 5 11 1122 1125 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 66 66 SW 6 11 1122 1125 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 64 64 SW 6 11 1122 1125 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 64 64 SW 5 10 1122 1125 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 63 63 SW 5 10 1122 1125 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 61 61 SW 5 9 1122 1125 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 61 61 SW 5 9 1122 1125 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 62 63 SW 4 8 1122 1125 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 64 66 SSW 4 6 1122 1125 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 67 71 SW 4 5 1122 1125 0 White 0
11 AM Fri 69 75 SW 4 5 1122 1125 0 White 0
12 Noon Fri 71 78 SW 5 6 1122 1125 0 White 0
1 PM Fri 73 80 SW 6 7 1122 1125 0 White 0
2 PM Fri 75 81 WSW 6 7 1122 1125 0 White 0
3 PM Fri 77 81 WSW 8 9 1122 1125 0 White 0
4 PM Fri 78 80 WSW 11 12 1122 1125 0 White 0
5 PM Fri 78 79 WSW 11 13 1122 1125 0 White 0
6 PM Fri 78 78 WSW 13 15 1122 1125 0 White 0
7 PM Fri 76 76 WSW 13 16 1122 1125 0 White 0
8 PM Fri 73 73 WSW 9 16 1122 1125 0 White 0
9 PM Fri 71 71 WSW 8 16 1122 1125 0 White 0
10 PM Fri 70 70 WSW 6 12 1122 1125 0 White 0
11 PM Fri 68 68 SSW 5 10 1122 1125 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 67 67 SSW 5 10 1122 1125 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 66 66 SSW 6 11 1122 1125 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 64 64 SSW 5 10 1122 1125 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 63 63 SSW 3 7 1122 1125 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 63 63 SSE 2 3 1122 1125 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 62 62 SE 3 7 1122 1125 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 62 62 SE 5 11 1122 1125 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 62 62 SE 7 14 1122 1125 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 64 64 SSE 9 15 1122 1125 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 66 66 SSE 11 13 1122 1125 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 68 72 S 12 13 1122 1125 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 70 76 S 14 16 1122 1125 0 White 0
12 Noon Sat 73 80 S 17 19 1122 1125 0 White 0
1 PM Sat 75 81 S 19 21 1122 1125 0 White 0
2 PM Sat 76 81 SSW 20 23 1122 1125 0 White 0
3 PM Sat 77 79 SSW 22 25 1122 1125 0 White 0
4 PM Sat 77 78 SSW 23 26 1122 1125 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 76 76 SSW 24 28 1122 1125 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 75 75 SSW 23 27 1122 1125 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 73 73 SSW 20 25 1122 1125 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 71 71 SW 17 23 1122 1125 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 68 68 SSW 13 19 1122 1125 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 66 66 SW 9 13 1122 1125 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 65 65 SSW 6 10 1122 1125 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]