Detailed Predictions for: Phoenix Regional
Launch Altitude (f): 1300
LZ Altitude (f): 1300
Sounding

Station:

 KTUS

Date/Time:

 18 MAY 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
6 AM Fri 68 68 SE 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 67 67 SE 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 70 71 SE 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 76 78 S 10 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 82 85 S 10 2616 2470 1170 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 86 90 S 10 4833 3027 1727 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 89 97 SW 18 7103 5652 4352 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 92 100 SW 18 10712 6989 5689 Blue 16
2 PM Fri 94 101 SW 18 11033 7588 6288 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 95 100 SW 22 10712 6989 5689 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 97 100 SW 22 10712 6989 5689 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 97 98 SW 22 7709 5978 4678 Blue 14
6 PM Fri 94 94 W 22 5698 4942 3642 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 92 92 W 22 5080 4747 3447 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 88 88 W 22 4015 2612 1312 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 83 83 W 15 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 79 79 W 15 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 75 75 W 15 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 73 73 SW 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 70 70 SW 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 69 69 SW 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 68 68 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 66 66 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 64 64 S 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 62 62 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 61 62 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 65 67 E 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 71 75 SE 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 78 84 SE 5 2518 2470 1170 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 83 91 SE 5 4956 3941 2641 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 88 97 S 1 7103 5652 4352 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 91 100 S 1 10712 6989 5689 Blue 16
2 PM Sat 93 101 S 1 11033 7588 6288 Blue 17
3 PM Sat 95 101 W 5 11033 7588 6288 Blue 17
4 PM Sat 97 100 W 5 10712 6989 5689 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 97 98 W 5 7709 5978 4678 Blue 14
6 PM Sat 94 94 NW 5 5698 4942 3642 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 92 92 NW 5 5080 4747 3447 Blue 8
8 PM Sat 88 88 NW 5 4015 2612 1312 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 84 84 NW 5 2518 2470 1170 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 79 79 NW 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 76 76 NW 5 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 74 74 NW 1 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 71 71 NW 1 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 70 70 NW 1 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 69 69 NW 1 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 67 67 NW 1 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 65 65 NW 1 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 63 SE 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 63 SE 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 66 68 SE 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 73 77 SE 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 81 87 SE 2 3081 2514 1214 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 87 95 SE 2 6027 5065 3765 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 92 101 NE 2 11033 7588 6288 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 95 104 NE 2 12068 10932 9632 Blue 20
2 PM Sun 97 105 NE 2 12716 11246 9946 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 100 106 NE 2 13333 11558 10258 Blue 22
4 PM Sun 102 105 NE 2 12716 11246 9946 Blue 21
5 PM Sun 102 103 NE 2 11664 10106 8806 Blue 19
6 PM Sun 99 99 NW 6 8293 6364 5064 Blue 15
7 PM Sun 96 96 NW 6 6470 5323 4023 Blue 12
8 PM Sun 92 92 NW 6 5080 4747 3447 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 87 87 NW 6 3081 2514 1214 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 83 83 NW 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 79 79 NW 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 77 77 W 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 74 74 W 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 73 73 W 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 71 71 W 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 70 70 W 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 68 68 W 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 66 66 E 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 64 64 E 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 69 71 E 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 76 80 E 2 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 85 91 E 2 4956 3941 2641 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 91 98 E 2 7709 5978 4678 Blue 14
12 Noon Mon 96 104 E 1 12068 10932 9632 Blue 20
1 PM Mon 100 108 E 1 15527 12480 11180 White 24
2 PM Mon 102 109 E 1 15721 13094 11794 White 25
3 PM Mon 105 110 E 1 15916 13681 12381 White 26
4 PM Mon 107 110 E 1 15916 13681 12381 White 26
5 PM Mon 107 108 E 1 15527 12480 11180 White 24
6 PM Mon 104 104 W 8 12068 10932 9632 Blue 20
7 PM Mon 101 101 W 8 11033 7588 6288 Blue 17
8 PM Mon 97 97 W 8 7103 5652 4352 Blue 13
9 PM Mon 91 91 W 8 4956 3941 2641 Blue 7
10 PM Mon 86 86 W 8 2714 2470 1170 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 82 82 W 8 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 80 80 W 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 77 77 W 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 76 76 W 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 74 74 W 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 72 72 W 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 70 70 W 3 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 68 68 S 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 66 66 S 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 70 72 S 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 77 80 S 6 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 84 89 S 6 4754 2709 1409 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 90 96 S 6 6470 5323 4023 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 94 100 SW 12 10712 6989 5689 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 98 104 SW 12 12068 10932 9632 Blue 20
2 PM Tue 100 105 SW 12 12716 11246 9946 Blue 21
3 PM Tue 102 106 SW 12 13333 11558 10258 Blue 22
4 PM Tue 104 106 SW 12 13333 11558 10258 Blue 22
5 PM Tue 104 105 SW 12 12716 11246 9946 Blue 21
6 PM Tue 101 101 W 20 11033 7588 6288 Blue 17
7 PM Tue 98 98 W 20 7709 5978 4678 Blue 14
8 PM Tue 94 94 W 20 5698 4942 3642 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 89 89 W 20 4754 2709 1409 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 84 84 W 20 2518 2470 1170 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 80 80 W 20 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 77 77 SW 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 74 74 SW 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 73 73 SW 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 72 72 SW 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 70 70 SW 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 68 68 SW 9 0 1300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 66 66 SE 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 64 64 SE 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 68 70 SE 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 74 78 SE 7 0 1300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 81 87 SE 7 3081 2514 1214 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 86 93 SE 7 5365 4819 3519 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 91 99 SW 13 8293 6364 5064 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 94 102 SW 13 11350 8165 6865 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 96 103 SW 13 11664 10106 8806 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 98 103 SW 13 11664 10106 8806 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 100 103 SW 13 11664 10106 8806 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 100 101 SW 13 11033 7588 6288 Blue 17
6 PM Wed 97 97 SW 18 7103 5652 4352 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 94 94 SW 18 5698 4942 3642 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 91 91 SW 18 4956 3941 2641 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 86 86 SW 18 2714 2470 1170 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 81 81 SW 18 0 1300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 78 78 SW 18 0 1300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 75 75 SW 10 0 1300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 73 73 SW 10 0 1300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 72 72 SW 10 0 1300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 70 70 SW 10 0 1300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 68 68 SW 10 0 1300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 67 67 SW 10 0 1300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com