NEWS:

Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.


Backup data is being sourced from WeatherAPI.com however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

Sounding

Station:

KTUS (alt)

Date/Time:

15 MAY 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
South Mountain WSW 17 13497 WSW 19 11981 WNW 8 8700
Oatman Mt SSW 16 8319 SW 11 1587 WSW 6 1587 SW 12 8866 SW 13 7479 SW 16 5272
Shaw Butte WSW 16 9634 WSW 19 4039 S 7 923
The Y SSW 19 10079 SSW 20 6565 WSW 16 5207 WSW 17 10165 SSW 18 9993 SSW 21 10079
Phoenix Regional WSW 13 10228 WSW 12 6931 WNW 9 4370 W 10 9807 WSW 11 9807 WSW 13 9807
Humbolt S 13 9298 SW 13 4831 W 10 1602 SW 12 6640 SW 12 6640 SW 18 6317
Miller Canyon SW 20 11578 WSW 23 10966 WSW 18 10552
Box Canyon SW 21 11633 SW 25 10823 W 18 9228 WNW 13 10416 WSW 20 11229 SW 20 11431
Mustang Mountain SW 21 11302 SW 25 10895 W 19 9066 NW 14 9842 WSW 20 11099 WSW 21 11099
Whetstone Mountain SW 21 10909 SW 26 10497 W 20 9033 WNW 16 9718 WSW 21 10703 WSW 21 10909
Mt Lemmon SW 19 11457 SW 22 10459 W 16 9644
A Mountain SW 17 13174 WSW 21 12173 W 13 8658 WNW 11 12089 WSW 16 12830 WSW 17 12830
Rainbow Valley WSW 14 9177 WSW 12 4871 W 8 1888 WSW 10 9177 WSW 13 8623 WSW 13 7795
Pinal Peak SW 17 10210 SW 17 9391 W 16 8027
Harquahala SSE 19 6554 S 17 2119 W 11 3206 WSW 14 8522 SW 16 5681 SW 21 5681
El Tiro Gliderport SW 18 12876 SW 20 9969 W 11 6826 WNW 9 9407 WSW 16 12793 WSW 13 12477
Mt Ord WSW 16 12411 WSW 19 11199 W 11 10581

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com