Detailed Predictions for: Oatman Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 1416
LZ Altitude (f): 550
Sounding

Station:

 KTUS

Date/Time:

 10 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
8 AM Wed 44 44 W 8 1256 1416 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 46 47 W 8 1256 1416 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 48 50 W 8 1256 1416 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 51 54 SW 9 1256 1416 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 53 56 SW 9 1256 1416 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 54 57 SW 9 1256 1416 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 56 59 W 9 1256 1416 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 57 59 W 9 1256 1416 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 56 57 W 9 1256 1416 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 58 58 W 9 1256 1416 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 55 55 W 9 1256 1416 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 53 53 W 9 1256 1416 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 52 52 W 8 1256 1416 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 51 51 W 8 1256 1416 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 50 50 W 8 1256 1416 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 49 49 SW 7 1256 1416 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 SW 7 1256 1416 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 48 48 SW 7 1256 1416 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 47 47 W 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 47 47 W 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 47 47 W 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 46 46 NW 4 1256 1416 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 46 46 NW 4 1256 1416 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 45 45 NW 4 1256 1416 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 46 46 NW 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 49 50 NW 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 51 54 NW 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 55 59 N 9 1256 1416 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 58 63 N 9 1256 1416 0 White 0
1 PM Thu 60 65 N 9 1256 1416 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 62 66 N 9 1256 1416 0 White 0
3 PM Thu 63 66 N 9 1256 1416 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 63 65 N 9 1256 1416 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 65 65 NW 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 61 61 NW 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 58 58 NW 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 56 56 NW 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 54 54 NW 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 53 53 NW 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 52 52 N 4 1256 1416 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 N 4 1256 1416 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 51 51 N 4 1256 1416 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 49 49 N 4 1256 1416 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 49 49 N 4 1256 1416 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 48 48 N 4 1256 1416 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 48 48 NE 4 1256 1416 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 47 47 NE 4 1256 1416 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 46 46 NE 4 1256 1416 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 47 47 NE 4 1256 1416 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 51 52 NE 4 1256 1416 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 54 57 NE 4 1256 1416 0 White 0
11 AM Fri 59 63 N 4 1256 1416 0 White 0
12 Noon Fri 62 67 N 4 1256 1416 0 White 0
1 PM Fri 64 69 N 4 1256 1416 0 White 0
2 PM Fri 67 72 N 4 1256 1416 0 White 0
3 PM Fri 68 71 N 4 1256 1416 0 White 0
4 PM Fri 68 70 N 4 1256 1416 0 White 0
5 PM Fri 70 70 N 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
6 PM Fri 67 67 N 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
7 PM Fri 63 63 N 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
8 PM Fri 61 61 N 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
9 PM Fri 60 60 N 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
10 PM Fri 59 59 N 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
11 PM Fri 57 57 N 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 N 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 56 56 N 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 55 55 N 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 55 55 N 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 54 54 N 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 53 53 NE 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 52 52 NE 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 51 51 NE 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 52 52 NE 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 55 56 NE 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 58 60 NE 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 62 66 SE 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
12 Noon Sat 64 68 SE 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
1 PM Sat 67 72 SE 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
2 PM Sat 69 73 SE 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
3 PM Sat 70 73 SE 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
4 PM Sat 69 70 SE 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 72 72 S 4 1256 1416 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 68 68 S 4 1256 1416 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 65 65 S 4 1256 1416 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 63 63 S 4 1256 1416 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 61 61 S 4 1256 1416 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 60 60 S 4 1256 1416 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 59 59 SE 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 59 59 SE 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 58 58 SE 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 56 56 SE 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 56 56 SE 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 55 55 SE 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 55 55 NE 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 54 54 NE 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 53 53 NE 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 54 54 NE 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 56 57 NE 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 59 61 NE 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 63 67 N 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 65 69 N 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 67 72 N 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 69 73 N 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 70 73 N 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 70 71 N 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 72 72 NW 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 68 68 NW 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 65 65 NW 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 63 63 NW 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 62 62 NW 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 61 61 NW 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 60 60 N 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 N 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 58 58 N 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 57 57 N 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 57 57 N 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 56 56 N 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 56 56 E 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 55 55 E 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 E 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 55 55 E 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 58 59 E 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 61 64 E 5 1256 1416 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 66 70 N 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 69 74 N 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
1 PM Mon 71 76 N 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
2 PM Mon 73 77 N 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
3 PM Mon 75 78 N 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 74 76 N 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 76 76 NW 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 72 72 NW 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 69 69 NW 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 67 67 NW 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 65 65 NW 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 64 64 NW 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 62 62 NE 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 63 63 NE 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 61 61 NE 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 60 60 NE 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 60 60 NE 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 59 59 NE 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 58 58 E 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 57 57 E 6 1256 1416 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 56 56 E 6 1256 1416 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com