Detailed Predictions for: Oatman Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 1416
LZ Altitude (f): 550
Sounding

Station:

 KTUS

Date/Time:

 3 SEP 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
6 AM Fri 82 82 N 3 2493 2470 1054 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 81 81 N 3 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 82 83 N 3 2558 2470 1054 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 85 87 NE 5 2812 2619 1203 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 89 93 NE 5 3194 2999 1583 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 94 100 NE 5 3708 3445 2029 Blue 18
12 Noon Fri 97 104 E 7 5365 3802 2386 Blue 22
1 PM Fri 100 107 E 7 7566 5260 3844 Blue 25
2 PM Fri 104 110 E 7 11343 7431 6015 White 28
3 PM Fri 106 110 E 6 11343 7431 6015 White 28
4 PM Fri 107 110 E 6 11343 7431 6015 White 28
5 PM Fri 108 109 E 6 9303 6748 5332 Blue 27
6 PM Fri 108 108 E 3 8334 6027 4611 Blue 26
7 PM Fri 106 106 E 3 6875 4498 3082 Blue 24
8 PM Fri 102 102 E 3 4148 3607 2191 Blue 20
9 PM Fri 98 98 E 2 3521 3317 1901 Blue 16
10 PM Fri 96 96 E 2 3386 3190 1774 Blue 14
11 PM Fri 95 95 E 2 3322 3127 1711 Blue 13
12 Midnight Sat 92 92 E 1 3131 2936 1520 Blue 10
1 AM Sat 91 91 E 1 3067 2872 1456 Blue 9
2 AM Sat 89 89 E 1 2940 2746 1330 Blue 7
3 AM Sat 87 87 E 3 2812 2619 1203 Blue 5
4 AM Sat 86 86 E 3 2749 2555 1139 Blue 4
5 AM Sat 85 85 E 3 2685 2490 1074 Blue 3
6 AM Sat 84 84 E 7 2622 2470 1054 Blue 2
7 AM Sat 83 83 E 7 2558 2470 1054 Blue 1
8 AM Sat 84 85 E 7 2685 2490 1074 Blue 3
9 AM Sat 86 88 E 9 2876 2682 1266 Blue 6
10 AM Sat 90 94 E 9 3258 3063 1647 Blue 12
11 AM Sat 94 100 E 9 3708 3445 2029 Blue 18
12 Noon Sat 96 103 E 9 4580 3700 2284 Blue 21
1 PM Sat 99 106 E 9 6875 4498 3082 Blue 24
2 PM Sat 102 108 E 9 8334 6027 4611 Blue 26
3 PM Sat 104 109 S 6 9303 6748 5332 Blue 27
4 PM Sat 105 108 S 6 8334 6027 4611 Blue 26
5 PM Sat 106 107 S 6 7566 5260 3844 Blue 25
6 PM Sat 106 106 SW 2 6875 4498 3082 Blue 24
7 PM Sat 103 103 SW 2 4580 3700 2284 Blue 21
8 PM Sat 99 99 SW 2 3614 3381 1965 Blue 17
9 PM Sat 96 96 SW 2 3386 3190 1774 Blue 14
10 PM Sat 94 94 SW 2 3258 3063 1647 Blue 12
11 PM Sat 93 93 SW 2 3194 2999 1583 Blue 11
12 Midnight Sun 90 90 SW 3 3003 2809 1393 Blue 8
1 AM Sun 89 89 SW 3 2940 2746 1330 Blue 7
2 AM Sun 87 87 SW 3 2812 2619 1203 Blue 5
3 AM Sun 86 86 SW 3 2749 2555 1139 Blue 4
4 AM Sun 84 84 SW 3 2622 2470 1054 Blue 2
5 AM Sun 84 84 SW 3 2622 2470 1054 Blue 2
6 AM Sun 83 83 SW 5 2558 2470 1054 Blue 1
7 AM Sun 82 82 SW 5 2493 2470 1054 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 83 84 SW 5 2622 2470 1054 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 85 87 SW 5 2812 2619 1203 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 89 93 SW 5 3194 2999 1583 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 93 98 SW 5 3521 3317 1901 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 95 101 SW 10 3830 3514 2098 Blue 19
1 PM Sun 98 104 SW 10 5365 3802 2386 Blue 22
2 PM Sun 101 106 SW 10 6875 4498 3082 Blue 24
3 PM Sun 103 107 SW 10 7566 5260 3844 Blue 25
4 PM Sun 104 106 SW 10 6875 4498 3082 Blue 24
5 PM Sun 105 106 SW 10 6875 4498 3082 Blue 24
6 PM Sun 104 104 SW 14 5365 3802 2386 Blue 22
7 PM Sun 102 102 SW 14 4148 3607 2191 Blue 20
8 PM Sun 98 98 SW 14 3521 3317 1901 Blue 16
9 PM Sun 94 94 SW 14 3258 3063 1647 Blue 12
10 PM Sun 92 92 SW 14 3131 2936 1520 Blue 10
11 PM Sun 91 91 SW 14 3067 2872 1456 Blue 9
12 Midnight Mon 88 88 SW 10 2876 2682 1266 Blue 6
1 AM Mon 87 87 SW 10 2812 2619 1203 Blue 5
2 AM Mon 85 85 SW 10 2685 2490 1074 Blue 3
3 AM Mon 83 83 SW 10 2558 2470 1054 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 82 82 SW 10 2493 2470 1054 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 81 81 SW 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 80 80 SW 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 79 79 SW 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 79 80 SW 6 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 81 83 SW 6 2558 2470 1054 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 84 88 SW 6 2876 2682 1266 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 87 93 SW 6 3194 2999 1583 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 89 95 SW 7 3322 3127 1711 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 91 97 SW 7 3450 3254 1838 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 93 98 SW 7 3521 3317 1901 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 95 99 SW 7 3614 3381 1965 Blue 17
4 PM Mon 95 97 SW 7 3450 3254 1838 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 96 97 SW 7 3450 3254 1838 Blue 15
6 PM Mon 96 96 SW 9 3386 3190 1774 Blue 14
7 PM Mon 94 94 SW 9 3258 3063 1647 Blue 12
8 PM Mon 91 91 SW 9 3067 2872 1456 Blue 9
9 PM Mon 88 88 SW 9 2876 2682 1266 Blue 6
10 PM Mon 86 86 SW 9 2749 2555 1139 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 85 85 SW 9 2685 2490 1074 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 83 83 SW 7 2558 2470 1054 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 82 82 SW 7 2493 2470 1054 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 80 80 SW 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 79 79 SW 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 78 78 SW 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 77 77 SW 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 77 77 S 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 76 76 S 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 77 78 S 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 79 81 S 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 82 86 S 5 2749 2555 1139 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 86 92 S 5 3131 2936 1520 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 88 94 S 9 3258 3063 1647 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 91 97 S 9 3450 3254 1838 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 94 99 S 9 3614 3381 1965 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 95 99 S 9 3614 3381 1965 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 96 98 S 9 3521 3317 1901 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 97 98 S 9 3521 3317 1901 Blue 16
6 PM Tue 97 97 S 14 3450 3254 1838 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 95 95 S 14 3322 3127 1711 Blue 13
8 PM Tue 91 91 S 14 3067 2872 1456 Blue 9
9 PM Tue 88 88 S 14 2876 2682 1266 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 86 86 S 14 2749 2555 1139 Blue 4
11 PM Tue 85 85 S 14 2685 2490 1074 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 83 83 S 9 2558 2470 1054 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 81 81 S 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 80 80 S 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 79 79 S 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 77 77 S 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 76 76 S 9 0 1416 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 76 76 SE 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 75 75 SE 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 76 77 SE 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 78 81 SE 5 0 1416 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 81 86 SE 5 2749 2555 1139 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 85 91 SE 5 3067 2872 1456 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 87 93 S 9 3194 2999 1583 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 90 97 S 9 3450 3254 1838 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 93 99 S 9 3614 3381 1965 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 94 98 S 9 3521 3317 1901 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 95 98 S 9 3521 3317 1901 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 96 97 S 9 3450 3254 1838 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 96 96 SW 14 3386 3190 1774 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 94 94 SW 14 3258 3063 1647 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 90 90 SW 14 3003 2809 1393 Blue 8
9 PM Wed 87 87 SW 14 2812 2619 1203 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 85 85 SW 14 2685 2490 1074 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 84 84 SW 14 2622 2470 1054 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 82 82 S 10 2493 2470 1054 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 80 80 S 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 79 79 S 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 78 78 S 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 76 76 S 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 75 75 S 10 0 1416 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com