Detailed Predictions for: Oatman Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 1416
LZ Altitude (f): 550
Sounding

Station:

 KTUS

Date/Time:

 15 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
6 AM Mon 52 52 NE 7 2517 2470 1054 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 NE 7 2517 2470 1054 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 51 NE 7 0 1416 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 52 54 NE 10 2716 2470 1054 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 56 59 NE 10 3234 2811 1395 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 59 64 NE 10 4487 3555 2139 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 62 68 NE 10 6370 4839 3423 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 65 71 NE 10 8484 6288 4872 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 68 73 NE 10 10204 7223 5807 Blue 21
3 PM Mon 70 74 NE 10 10578 8251 6835 Blue 22
4 PM Mon 71 73 NE 10 10204 7223 5807 Blue 21
5 PM Mon 71 71 NE 10 8484 6288 4872 Blue 19
6 PM Mon 73 73 NE 8 10204 7223 5807 Blue 21
7 PM Mon 70 70 NE 8 7450 5805 4389 Blue 18
8 PM Mon 67 67 NE 8 5880 4444 3028 Blue 15
9 PM Mon 66 66 N 3 5378 4044 2628 Blue 14
10 PM Mon 64 64 N 3 4487 3555 2139 Blue 12
11 PM Mon 63 63 N 3 4082 3389 1973 Blue 11
12 Midnight Tue 63 63 N 5 4082 3389 1973 Blue 11
1 AM Tue 62 62 N 5 3734 3223 1807 Blue 10
2 AM Tue 61 61 N 5 3567 3057 1641 Blue 9
3 AM Tue 61 61 NE 7 3567 3057 1641 Blue 9
4 AM Tue 60 60 NE 7 3401 2891 1475 Blue 8
5 AM Tue 59 59 NE 7 3234 2811 1395 Blue 7
6 AM Tue 58 58 NE 9 3067 2762 1346 Blue 6
7 AM Tue 58 58 NE 9 3067 2762 1346 Blue 6
8 AM Tue 57 57 NE 9 2900 2713 1297 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 58 60 E 8 3401 2891 1475 Blue 8
10 AM Tue 61 64 E 8 4487 3555 2139 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 63 68 E 8 6370 4839 3423 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 66 72 NE 11 9397 6760 5344 Blue 20
1 PM Tue 68 74 NE 11 10578 8251 6835 Blue 22
2 PM Tue 71 76 NE 11 10802 10066 8650 Blue 24
3 PM Tue 73 77 E 11 10914 10461 9045 Blue 25
4 PM Tue 74 76 E 11 10802 10066 8650 Blue 24
5 PM Tue 74 74 E 11 10578 8251 6835 Blue 22
6 PM Tue 75 75 NE 7 10690 9159 7743 Blue 23
7 PM Tue 72 72 NE 7 9397 6760 5344 Blue 20
8 PM Tue 69 69 NE 7 6847 5309 3893 Blue 17
9 PM Tue 68 68 NE 7 6370 4839 3423 Blue 16
10 PM Tue 66 66 NE 7 5378 4044 2628 Blue 14
11 PM Tue 65 65 NE 7 4886 3720 2304 Blue 13
12 Midnight Wed 65 65 N 6 4886 3720 2304 Blue 13
1 AM Wed 64 64 N 6 4487 3555 2139 Blue 12
2 AM Wed 63 63 N 6 4082 3389 1973 Blue 11
3 AM Wed 63 63 N 6 4082 3389 1973 Blue 11
4 AM Wed 62 62 N 6 3734 3223 1807 Blue 10
5 AM Wed 61 61 N 6 3567 3057 1641 Blue 9
6 AM Wed 60 60 NE 7 3401 2891 1475 Blue 8
7 AM Wed 60 60 NE 7 3401 2891 1475 Blue 8
8 AM Wed 59 59 NE 7 3234 2811 1395 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 60 62 NE 7 3734 3223 1807 Blue 10
10 AM Wed 63 66 NE 7 5378 4044 2628 Blue 14
11 AM Wed 66 71 NE 7 8484 6288 4872 Blue 19
12 Noon Wed 69 75 NE 10 10690 9159 7743 Blue 23
1 PM Wed 72 78 NE 10 11026 10654 9238 Blue 26
2 PM Wed 74 79 NE 10 11138 10765 9349 Blue 27
3 PM Wed 76 80 NE 10 11250 10877 9461 Blue 28
4 PM Wed 77 79 NE 10 11138 10765 9349 Blue 27
5 PM Wed 77 77 NE 10 10914 10461 9045 Blue 25
6 PM Wed 79 79 NE 6 11138 10765 9349 Blue 27
7 PM Wed 76 76 NE 6 10802 10066 8650 Blue 24
8 PM Wed 72 72 NE 6 9397 6760 5344 Blue 20
9 PM Wed 70 70 NE 6 7450 5805 4389 Blue 18
10 PM Wed 68 68 NE 6 6370 4839 3423 Blue 16
11 PM Wed 68 68 NE 6 6370 4839 3423 Blue 16
12 Midnight Thu 67 67 NW 4 5880 4444 3028 Blue 15
1 AM Thu 66 66 NW 4 5378 4044 2628 Blue 14
2 AM Thu 65 65 NW 4 4886 3720 2304 Blue 13
3 AM Thu 64 64 NW 4 4487 3555 2139 Blue 12
4 AM Thu 63 63 NW 4 4082 3389 1973 Blue 11
5 AM Thu 63 63 NW 4 4082 3389 1973 Blue 11
6 AM Thu 62 62 E 1 3734 3223 1807 Blue 10
7 AM Thu 61 61 E 1 3567 3057 1641 Blue 9
8 AM Thu 60 60 E 1 3401 2891 1475 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 61 63 E 1 4082 3389 1973 Blue 11
10 AM Thu 64 67 E 1 5880 4444 3028 Blue 15
11 AM Thu 67 71 E 1 8484 6288 4872 Blue 19
12 Noon Thu 70 75 N 2 10690 9159 7743 Blue 23
1 PM Thu 72 77 N 2 10914 10461 9045 Blue 25
2 PM Thu 75 80 N 2 11250 10877 9461 Blue 28
3 PM Thu 76 79 N 2 11138 10765 9349 Blue 27
4 PM Thu 78 80 N 2 11250 10877 9461 Blue 28
5 PM Thu 77 77 N 2 10914 10461 9045 Blue 25
6 PM Thu 79 79 W 7 11138 10765 9349 Blue 27
7 PM Thu 75 75 W 7 10690 9159 7743 Blue 23
8 PM Thu 71 71 W 7 8484 6288 4872 Blue 19
9 PM Thu 69 69 W 7 6847 5309 3893 Blue 17
10 PM Thu 67 67 W 7 5880 4444 3028 Blue 15
11 PM Thu 66 66 W 7 5378 4044 2628 Blue 14
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 SW 8 4886 3720 2304 Blue 13
1 AM Fri 65 65 SW 8 4886 3720 2304 Blue 13
2 AM Fri 63 63 SW 8 4082 3389 1973 Blue 11
3 AM Fri 63 63 SW 8 4082 3389 1973 Blue 11
4 AM Fri 62 62 SW 8 3734 3223 1807 Blue 10
5 AM Fri 61 61 SW 8 3567 3057 1641 Blue 9
6 AM Fri 60 60 SW 5 3401 2891 1475 Blue 8
7 AM Fri 59 59 SW 5 3234 2811 1395 Blue 7
8 AM Fri 58 58 SW 5 3067 2762 1346 Blue 6
9 AM Fri 59 60 SW 5 3401 2891 1475 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 62 65 SW 5 4886 3720 2304 Blue 13
11 AM Fri 65 69 SW 5 6847 5309 3893 Blue 17
12 Noon Fri 68 73 W 4 10204 7223 5807 Blue 21
1 PM Fri 71 76 W 4 10802 10066 8650 Blue 24
2 PM Fri 73 77 W 4 10914 10461 9045 Blue 25
3 PM Fri 75 78 W 4 11026 10654 9238 Blue 26
4 PM Fri 76 78 W 4 11026 10654 9238 Blue 26
5 PM Fri 76 76 W 4 10802 10066 8650 Blue 24
6 PM Fri 78 78 W 5 11026 10654 9238 Blue 26
7 PM Fri 75 75 W 5 10690 9159 7743 Blue 23
8 PM Fri 71 71 W 5 8484 6288 4872 Blue 19
9 PM Fri 69 69 W 5 6847 5309 3893 Blue 17
10 PM Fri 67 67 W 5 5880 4444 3028 Blue 15
11 PM Fri 67 67 W 5 5880 4444 3028 Blue 15
12 Midnight Sat 66 66 W 5 5378 4044 2628 Blue 14
1 AM Sat 65 65 W 5 4886 3720 2304 Blue 13
2 AM Sat 64 64 W 5 4487 3555 2139 Blue 12
3 AM Sat 63 63 W 5 4082 3389 1973 Blue 11
4 AM Sat 62 62 W 5 3734 3223 1807 Blue 10
5 AM Sat 62 62 W 5 3734 3223 1807 Blue 10
6 AM Sat 61 61 N 1 3567 3057 1641 Blue 9
7 AM Sat 60 60 N 1 3401 2891 1475 Blue 8
8 AM Sat 59 59 N 1 3234 2811 1395 Blue 7
9 AM Sat 60 61 N 1 3567 3057 1641 Blue 9
10 AM Sat 63 66 N 1 5378 4044 2628 Blue 14
11 AM Sat 65 69 N 1 6847 5309 3893 Blue 17
12 Noon Sat 68 73 NE 5 10204 7223 5807 Blue 21
1 PM Sat 70 75 NE 5 10690 9159 7743 Blue 23
2 PM Sat 73 77 NE 5 10914 10461 9045 Blue 25
3 PM Sat 75 78 NE 5 11026 10654 9238 Blue 26
4 PM Sat 76 78 NE 5 11026 10654 9238 Blue 26
5 PM Sat 76 76 NE 5 10802 10066 8650 Blue 24
6 PM Sat 77 77 NW 4 10914 10461 9045 Blue 25
7 PM Sat 73 73 NW 4 10204 7223 5807 Blue 21
8 PM Sat 69 69 NW 4 6847 5309 3893 Blue 17
9 PM Sat 67 67 NW 4 5880 4444 3028 Blue 15
10 PM Sat 65 65 NW 4 4886 3720 2304 Blue 13
11 PM Sat 64 64 NW 4 4487 3555 2139 Blue 12
12 Midnight Sun 63 63 NW 5 4082 3389 1973 Blue 11
1 AM Sun 63 63 NW 5 4082 3389 1973 Blue 11
2 AM Sun 61 61 NW 5 3567 3057 1641 Blue 9
3 AM Sun 61 61 NW 5 3567 3057 1641 Blue 9
4 AM Sun 60 60 NW 5 3401 2891 1475 Blue 8
5 AM Sun 59 59 NW 5 3234 2811 1395 Blue 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com