Detailed Predictions for: Mustang Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 5100
Sounding

Station:

 KTUS

Date/Time:

 18 MAY 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
6 AM Fri 56 56 S 17 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 59 59 S 17 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 68 70 S 17 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 72 75 SW 22 7188 5900 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 73 78 SW 22 10867 7147 1247 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 75 81 SW 22 11873 10806 4906 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 78 85 SW 25 15477 12398 6498 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 79 86 SW 25 16940 13066 7166 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 81 87 SW 25 19560 13702 7802 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 83 87 SW 26 19560 13702 7802 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 84 86 SW 26 16940 13066 7166 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 83 84 SW 26 13877 11803 5903 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 83 83 SW 25 13236 11474 5574 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 81 81 SW 25 11873 10806 4906 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 77 77 SW 25 8467 6478 578 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 70 70 SW 22 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 67 67 SW 22 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 65 65 SW 22 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 SW 14 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 61 61 SW 14 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 60 SW 14 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 61 61 SW 10 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 60 60 SW 10 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 57 57 SW 10 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 57 57 S 9 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 59 60 S 9 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 67 69 S 9 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 72 76 S 9 7838 6013 113 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 73 80 S 9 11541 8400 2500 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 74 82 S 9 12560 11142 5242 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 77 86 SW 14 16940 13066 7166 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 78 86 SW 14 16940 13066 7166 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 80 87 SW 14 19560 13702 7802 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 81 86 W 15 16940 13066 7166 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 82 85 W 15 15477 12398 6498 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 82 83 W 15 13236 11474 5574 Blue 9
6 PM Sat 81 81 W 12 11873 10806 4906 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 80 80 W 12 11541 8400 2500 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 77 77 W 12 8467 6478 578 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 69 69 W 9 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 67 67 W 9 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 65 65 W 9 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 SW 6 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 62 62 SW 6 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 61 61 SW 6 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 61 SW 5 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 60 60 SW 5 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 58 58 SW 5 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 58 58 SW 8 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 61 62 SW 8 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 70 72 SW 8 5673 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 75 79 SW 8 11206 7787 1887 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 76 82 SW 8 12560 11142 5242 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 78 86 SW 8 16940 13066 7166 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 81 90 W 9 20660 17633 11733 White 16
1 PM Sun 82 91 W 9 20854 20481 14581 White 17
2 PM Sun 84 91 W 9 20854 20481 14581 White 17
3 PM Sun 86 91 W 9 20854 20481 14581 White 17
4 PM Sun 87 90 W 9 20660 17633 11733 White 16
5 PM Sun 87 88 W 9 20271 14880 8980 White 14
6 PM Sun 86 86 SW 9 16940 13066 7166 Blue 12
7 PM Sun 85 85 SW 9 15477 12398 6498 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 82 82 SW 9 12560 11142 5242 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 75 75 SW 9 7188 5900 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 73 73 SW 9 6022 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 71 71 SW 9 5320 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 69 69 SW 5 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 67 67 SW 5 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 67 67 SW 5 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 67 67 SW 5 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 66 66 SW 5 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 64 64 SW 5 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 64 64 E 7 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 66 67 E 7 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 74 76 E 7 7838 6013 113 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 79 83 E 7 13236 11474 5574 Blue 9
10 AM Mon 80 87 E 7 19560 13702 7802 Blue 13
11 AM Mon 82 90 E 7 20660 17633 11733 White 16
12 Noon Mon 84 93 W 14 21239 21043 15143 White 19
1 PM Mon 85 93 W 14 21239 21043 15143 White 19
2 PM Mon 87 94 W 14 21431 21320 15420 White 20
3 PM Mon 89 94 W 14 21431 21320 15420 White 20
4 PM Mon 89 92 W 14 21046 20763 14863 White 18
5 PM Mon 89 90 W 14 20660 17633 11733 White 16
6 PM Mon 89 89 SW 12 20467 16439 10539 White 15
7 PM Mon 87 87 SW 12 19560 13702 7802 Blue 13
8 PM Mon 84 84 SW 12 13877 11803 5903 Blue 10
9 PM Mon 77 77 SW 12 8467 6478 578 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 75 75 SW 12 7188 5900 0 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 73 73 SW 12 6022 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 72 72 SW 6 5673 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 70 70 SW 6 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 69 69 SW 6 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 69 69 SW 6 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 69 69 SW 6 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 66 66 SW 6 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 66 66 SW 14 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 68 69 SW 14 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 74 76 SW 14 7838 6013 113 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 78 82 SW 14 12560 11142 5242 Blue 8
10 AM Tue 78 84 SW 14 13877 11803 5903 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 80 88 SW 14 20271 14880 8980 White 14
12 Noon Tue 82 90 SW 17 20660 17633 11733 White 16
1 PM Tue 83 91 SW 17 20854 20481 14581 White 17
2 PM Tue 84 91 SW 17 20854 20481 14581 White 17
3 PM Tue 85 90 SW 17 20660 17633 11733 White 16
4 PM Tue 86 89 SW 17 20467 16439 10539 White 15
5 PM Tue 86 87 SW 17 19560 13702 7802 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 85 85 SW 17 15477 12398 6498 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 84 84 SW 17 13877 11803 5903 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 80 80 SW 17 11541 8400 2500 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 73 73 SW 17 6022 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 71 71 SW 17 5320 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 69 69 SW 17 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 67 67 SW 9 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 65 65 SW 9 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 64 64 SW 9 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 64 64 SW 9 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 63 63 SW 9 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 61 61 SW 9 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 61 61 SW 16 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 64 SW 16 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 70 72 SW 16 5673 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 74 78 SW 16 10867 7147 1247 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 75 81 SW 16 11873 10806 4906 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 76 84 SW 16 13877 11803 5903 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 78 86 W 18 16940 13066 7166 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 80 88 W 18 20271 14880 8980 White 14
2 PM Wed 81 88 W 18 20271 14880 8980 White 14
3 PM Wed 82 87 W 18 19560 13702 7802 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 83 86 W 18 16940 13066 7166 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 83 84 W 18 13877 11803 5903 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 82 82 SW 18 12560 11142 5242 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 81 81 SW 18 11873 10806 4906 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 78 78 SW 18 10867 7147 1247 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 71 71 SW 18 5320 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 69 69 SW 18 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 67 67 SW 18 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 SW 8 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 63 63 SW 8 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 62 62 SW 8 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 63 63 SW 8 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 62 62 SW 8 5108 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 59 SW 8 5108 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com