Detailed Predictions for: Mt Lemmon
Launch Altitude (f): 9150
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

 KTUS

Date/Time:

 18 MAY 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
6 AM Fri 44 44 SW 18 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 SW 18 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 50 SW 18 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 57 SW 23 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 57 62 SW 23 12440 11062 1912 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 60 66 SW 23 17208 13073 3923 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 61 68 SW 26 20768 15229 6079 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 61 68 SW 26 20768 15229 6079 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 63 69 SW 26 21066 16840 7690 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 65 69 SW 28 21066 16840 7690 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 66 69 SW 28 21066 16840 7690 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 65 66 SW 28 17208 13073 3923 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 64 64 SW 25 13859 11760 2610 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 59 59 SW 25 11087 9150 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 53 53 SW 25 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 49 49 W 20 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 49 49 W 20 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 48 48 W 20 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 49 49 W 12 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 48 W 12 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 49 W 12 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 48 48 SW 9 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 48 SW 9 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 49 SW 9 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 48 S 7 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 47 48 S 7 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 53 S 7 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 59 SW 8 11087 9150 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 57 63 SW 8 13170 11413 2263 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 59 67 SW 8 20467 13752 4602 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 60 69 W 12 21066 16840 7690 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 60 68 W 12 20768 15229 6079 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 62 69 W 12 21066 16840 7690 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 63 68 W 13 20768 15229 6079 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 64 67 W 13 20467 13752 4602 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 63 64 W 13 13859 11760 2610 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 62 62 W 10 12440 11062 1912 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 58 58 W 10 10728 9150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 54 54 W 10 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 51 51 W 8 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 51 51 W 8 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 50 W 8 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 S 5 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 50 S 5 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 50 S 5 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 50 S 5 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 49 S 5 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 50 S 5 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 50 S 6 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 50 S 6 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 56 S 6 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 63 S 6 13170 11413 2263 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 61 67 S 6 20467 13752 4602 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 63 71 S 6 21833 20647 11497 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 64 73 W 8 22930 21236 12086 White 15
1 PM Sun 64 73 W 8 22930 21236 12086 White 15
2 PM Sun 66 73 W 8 22930 21236 12086 White 15
3 PM Sun 68 73 W 8 22930 21236 12086 White 15
4 PM Sun 69 72 W 8 22731 20943 11793 White 14
5 PM Sun 68 69 W 8 21066 16840 7690 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 67 67 S 7 20467 13752 4602 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 63 63 S 7 13170 11413 2263 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 57 57 S 7 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 54 54 S 7 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 54 S 7 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 53 S 7 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 SE 5 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 53 SE 5 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 53 SE 5 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 53 53 SE 5 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 52 SE 5 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 53 SE 5 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 E 8 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 51 52 E 8 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 58 E 8 10728 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 61 65 E 8 15645 12354 3204 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 63 70 E 8 21362 19549 10399 Blue 12
11 AM Mon 65 73 E 8 22930 21236 12086 White 15
12 Noon Mon 66 75 W 14 23326 22290 13140 White 17
1 PM Mon 66 74 W 14 23128 21526 12376 White 16
2 PM Mon 68 75 W 14 23326 22290 13140 White 17
3 PM Mon 70 75 W 14 23326 22290 13140 White 17
4 PM Mon 71 74 W 14 23128 21526 12376 White 16
5 PM Mon 70 71 W 14 21833 20647 11497 Blue 13
6 PM Mon 69 69 SW 13 21066 16840 7690 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 65 65 SW 13 15645 12354 3204 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 59 59 SW 13 11087 9150 0 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 56 56 SW 13 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 56 SW 13 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 55 SW 13 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 55 SW 5 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 55 SW 5 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 55 55 SW 5 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 54 SW 5 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 SW 5 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 55 SW 5 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 54 S 13 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 53 54 S 13 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 59 S 13 11087 9150 0 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 61 65 S 13 15645 12354 3204 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 62 68 S 13 20768 15229 6079 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 64 72 S 13 22731 20943 11793 White 14
12 Noon Tue 65 73 SW 21 22930 21236 12086 White 15
1 PM Tue 65 73 SW 21 22930 21236 12086 White 15
2 PM Tue 66 73 SW 21 22930 21236 12086 White 15
3 PM Tue 67 72 SW 21 22731 20943 11793 White 14
4 PM Tue 68 71 SW 21 21833 20647 11497 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 67 68 SW 21 20768 15229 6079 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 66 66 SW 20 17208 13073 3923 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 62 62 SW 20 12440 11062 1912 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 56 56 SW 20 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 52 52 SW 20 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 52 SW 20 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 51 51 SW 20 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 S 8 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 51 51 S 8 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 52 S 8 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 51 51 S 8 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 50 S 8 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 S 8 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 51 SW 14 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 51 SW 14 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 55 SW 14 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 61 SW 14 11793 10707 1557 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 59 65 SW 14 15645 12354 3204 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 61 69 SW 14 21066 16840 7690 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 62 70 W 20 21362 19549 10399 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 62 70 W 20 21362 19549 10399 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 63 70 W 20 21362 19549 10399 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 64 69 W 20 21066 16840 7690 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 65 68 W 20 20768 15229 6079 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 64 65 W 20 15645 12354 3204 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 63 63 W 18 13170 11413 2263 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 59 59 W 18 11087 9150 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 53 53 W 18 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 50 50 W 18 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 50 50 W 18 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 49 49 W 18 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 SW 7 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 49 SW 7 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 49 SW 7 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 49 SW 7 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 48 SW 7 8461 9150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 SW 7 8461 9150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com