Detailed Predictions for: Miller Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 7600
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

 KTUS

Date/Time:

 18 MAY 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
6 AM Fri 57 57 SW 21 6237 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 53 SW 21 6237 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 58 SW 21 6237 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 62 SW 23 7556 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 59 65 SW 23 11124 7600 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 61 68 SW 23 12478 11086 3486 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 61 68 SW 26 12478 11086 3486 Blue 5
1 PM Fri 63 70 SW 26 13865 11773 4173 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 66 72 SW 26 17127 13071 5471 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 68 72 SW 28 17127 13071 5471 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 71 73 SW 28 20323 13737 6137 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 72 73 SW 28 20323 13737 6137 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 71 71 SW 25 15594 12368 4768 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 69 69 SW 25 13191 11432 3832 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 66 66 SW 25 11473 8210 610 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 62 62 SW 25 7556 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 61 61 SW 25 6859 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 61 61 SW 25 6859 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 SW 16 6859 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 60 60 SW 16 6237 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 60 SW 16 6237 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 59 SW 10 6237 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 58 SW 10 6237 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 58 58 SW 10 6237 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 58 58 SW 9 6237 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 56 SW 9 6237 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 58 60 SW 9 6237 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 59 63 SW 10 8220 7600 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 60 67 SW 10 11818 10737 3137 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 62 70 SW 10 13865 11773 4173 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 62 71 SW 15 15594 12368 4768 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 64 72 SW 15 17127 13071 5471 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 66 73 SW 15 20323 13737 6137 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 68 73 SW 16 20323 13737 6137 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 70 73 SW 16 20323 13737 6137 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 71 72 SW 16 17127 13071 5471 Blue 9
6 PM Sat 70 70 W 12 13865 11773 4173 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 69 69 W 12 13191 11432 3832 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 66 66 W 12 11473 8210 610 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 62 62 W 10 7556 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 62 62 W 10 7556 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 62 62 W 10 7556 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 61 61 SW 7 6859 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 61 61 SW 7 6859 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 60 60 SW 7 6237 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 60 60 SW 5 6237 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 59 59 SW 5 6237 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 59 59 SW 5 6237 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 59 59 SW 6 6237 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 58 SW 6 6237 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 60 62 SW 6 7556 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 61 65 SW 6 11124 7600 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 62 69 SW 6 13191 11432 3832 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 65 73 SW 6 20323 13737 6137 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 65 74 SW 9 20728 15121 7521 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 67 76 SW 9 21313 17936 10336 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 69 76 SW 9 21313 17936 10336 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 72 77 SW 9 21670 20597 12997 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 75 78 SW 9 22806 20889 13289 White 15
5 PM Sun 76 77 SW 9 21670 20597 12997 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 75 75 SW 9 21022 16718 9118 Blue 12
7 PM Sun 73 73 SW 9 20323 13737 6137 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 70 70 SW 9 13865 11773 4173 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 65 65 SW 9 11124 7600 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 65 65 SW 9 11124 7600 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 65 65 SW 9 11124 7600 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 64 64 SW 6 10771 7600 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 64 64 SW 6 10771 7600 0 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 63 63 SW 6 8220 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 62 62 SW 6 7556 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 62 SW 6 7556 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 61 61 SW 6 6859 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 62 62 E 8 7556 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 59 60 E 8 6237 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 61 63 E 8 8220 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 63 68 E 8 12478 11086 3486 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 64 71 E 8 15594 12368 4768 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 66 74 E 8 20728 15121 7521 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 66 74 SW 14 20728 15121 7521 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 68 76 SW 14 21313 17936 10336 Blue 13
2 PM Mon 70 77 SW 14 21670 20597 12997 Blue 14
3 PM Mon 73 78 SW 14 22806 20889 13289 White 15
4 PM Mon 75 78 SW 14 22806 20889 13289 White 15
5 PM Mon 76 77 SW 14 21670 20597 12997 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 75 75 SW 14 21022 16718 9118 Blue 12
7 PM Mon 74 74 SW 14 20728 15121 7521 Blue 11
8 PM Mon 71 71 SW 14 15594 12368 4768 Blue 8
9 PM Mon 67 67 SW 14 11818 10737 3137 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 67 67 SW 14 11818 10737 3137 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 67 67 SW 14 11818 10737 3137 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 66 66 SW 6 11473 8210 610 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 66 66 SW 6 11473 8210 610 Blue 3
2 AM Tue 65 65 SW 6 11124 7600 0 Blue 2
3 AM Tue 64 64 SW 6 10771 7600 0 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 64 64 SW 6 10771 7600 0 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 63 63 SW 6 8220 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 64 64 SW 14 10771 7600 0 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 61 62 SW 14 7556 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 63 65 SW 14 11124 7600 0 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 64 68 SW 14 12478 11086 3486 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 65 71 SW 14 15594 12368 4768 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 66 73 SW 14 20323 13737 6137 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 67 75 SW 20 21022 16718 9118 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 68 76 SW 20 21313 17936 10336 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 69 76 SW 20 21313 17936 10336 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 71 76 SW 20 21313 17936 10336 Blue 13
4 PM Tue 73 76 SW 20 21313 17936 10336 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 73 74 SW 20 20728 15121 7521 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 72 72 SW 21 17127 13071 5471 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 71 71 SW 21 15594 12368 4768 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 68 68 SW 21 12478 11086 3486 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 64 64 SW 21 10771 7600 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 63 63 SW 21 8220 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 63 63 SW 21 8220 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 63 63 S 13 8220 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 62 S 13 7556 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 62 62 S 13 7556 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 61 61 S 13 6859 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 60 S 13 6237 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 60 S 13 6237 7600 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 60 60 SW 20 6237 7600 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 59 SW 20 6237 7600 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 62 SW 20 7556 7600 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 61 65 SW 20 11124 7600 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 61 67 SW 20 11818 10737 3137 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 63 70 SW 20 13865 11773 4173 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 63 71 W 21 15594 12368 4768 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 64 72 W 21 17127 13071 5471 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 66 73 W 21 20323 13737 6137 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 68 73 W 21 20323 13737 6137 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 70 73 W 21 20323 13737 6137 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 70 71 W 21 15594 12368 4768 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 69 69 SW 21 13191 11432 3832 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 68 68 SW 21 12478 11086 3486 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 65 65 SW 21 11124 7600 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 61 61 SW 21 6859 7600 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 61 61 SW 21 6859 7600 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 61 61 SW 21 6859 7600 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 SW 9 6237 7600 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 60 SW 9 6237 7600 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 59 59 SW 9 6237 7600 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 58 SW 9 6237 7600 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 SW 9 6237 7600 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 57 SW 9 6237 7600 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com