Detailed Predictions for: Humbolt
Launch Altitude (f): 5100
LZ Altitude (f): 2100
Sounding

Station:

 KTUS

Date/Time:

 4 FEB 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Sat 39 39 NE 10 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 39 NE 10 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 38 38 NE 10 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 39 39 E 8 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 45 45 E 8 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 49 50 E 8 6672 5100 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 51 53 NE 7 7864 6638 1538 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 52 54 NE 7 8135 7197 2097 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 53 55 NE 7 8395 7568 2468 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 53 55 E 8 8395 7568 2468 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 54 55 E 8 8395 7568 2468 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 53 53 E 8 7864 6638 1538 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 51 51 SE 3 7240 5459 359 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 48 48 SE 3 5472 5100 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 45 45 SE 3 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 45 45 SE 2 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 44 44 SE 2 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 43 43 SE 2 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 42 42 E 7 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 E 7 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 41 41 E 7 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 40 40 E 8 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 40 40 E 8 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 40 40 E 8 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 E 10 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 E 10 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 39 39 E 10 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 40 40 E 10 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 45 45 E 10 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 49 50 E 10 6672 5100 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 51 52 E 9 7592 6060 960 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 52 54 E 9 8135 7197 2097 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 53 55 E 9 8395 7568 2468 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 53 54 E 10 8135 7197 2097 Blue 7
3 PM Sun 54 55 E 10 8395 7568 2468 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 53 53 E 10 7864 6638 1538 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 51 51 SE 5 7240 5459 359 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 48 48 SE 5 5472 5100 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 45 45 SE 5 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 45 45 SE 5 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 44 44 SE 5 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 43 43 SE 5 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 42 42 E 7 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 41 41 E 7 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 41 41 E 7 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 40 40 E 7 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 40 40 E 7 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 40 40 E 7 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 40 40 E 6 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 40 E 6 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 39 39 E 6 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 40 40 E 6 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 45 45 E 6 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 49 50 E 6 6672 5100 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 51 53 E 3 7864 6638 1538 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 52 54 E 3 8135 7197 2097 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 53 55 E 3 8395 7568 2468 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 53 55 E 3 8395 7568 2468 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 54 55 E 3 8395 7568 2468 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 53 53 E 3 7864 6638 1538 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 51 51 SW 5 7240 5459 359 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 48 48 SW 5 5472 5100 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 46 46 SW 5 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 45 45 SW 5 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 44 44 SW 5 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 44 44 SW 5 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 43 43 NE 3 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 42 42 NE 3 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 42 42 NE 3 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 41 41 NE 3 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 41 41 NE 3 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 41 41 NE 3 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 41 41 E 7 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 41 41 E 7 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 40 40 E 7 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 41 41 E 7 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 45 45 E 7 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 49 49 E 7 6084 5100 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 50 51 E 6 7240 5459 359 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 51 52 E 6 7592 6060 960 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 52 53 E 6 7864 6638 1538 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 52 53 E 6 7864 6638 1538 Blue 6
3 PM Tue 53 54 E 6 8135 7197 2097 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 52 52 E 6 7592 6060 960 Blue 5
5 PM Tue 51 51 S 6 7240 5459 359 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 49 49 S 6 6084 5100 0 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 47 47 S 6 4811 5100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 47 47 S 6 4811 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 46 46 S 6 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 46 46 S 6 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 45 45 SE 6 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 45 45 SE 6 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 44 44 SE 6 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 44 44 SE 6 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 44 SE 6 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 SE 6 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 44 44 E 8 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 E 8 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 43 43 E 8 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 43 43 E 8 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 46 46 E 8 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 49 49 E 8 6084 5100 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 49 50 E 6 6672 5100 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 50 51 E 6 7240 5459 359 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 50 51 E 6 7240 5459 359 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 51 52 E 6 7592 6060 960 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 51 52 E 6 7592 6060 960 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 51 51 E 6 7240 5459 359 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 49 49 S 5 6084 5100 0 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 47 47 S 5 4811 5100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 46 46 S 5 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 46 46 S 5 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 45 45 S 5 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 44 44 S 5 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 44 44 NE 9 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 43 43 NE 9 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 43 43 NE 9 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 43 43 NE 9 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 43 43 NE 9 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 42 NE 9 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 43 43 NE 12 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 42 NE 12 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 42 42 NE 12 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 43 43 NE 12 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 47 47 NE 12 4811 5100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 50 51 NE 12 7240 5459 359 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 51 52 NE 8 7592 6060 960 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 52 53 NE 8 7864 6638 1538 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 52 54 NE 8 8135 7197 2097 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 52 53 NE 8 7864 6638 1538 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 53 54 NE 8 8135 7197 2097 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 52 52 NE 8 7592 6060 960 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 50 50 N 3 6672 5100 0 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 48 48 N 3 5472 5100 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 46 46 N 3 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 45 45 N 3 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 44 44 N 3 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 43 43 N 3 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 43 43 NE 8 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 NE 8 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 42 42 NE 8 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 41 41 NE 8 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 41 41 NE 8 4633 5100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 41 41 NE 8 4633 5100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com