Detailed Predictions for: Humbolt
Launch Altitude (f): 5100
LZ Altitude (f): 2100
Sounding

Station:

 KTUS

Date/Time:

 11 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
8 AM Thu 36 36 N 8 5854 5100 0 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 41 43 N 8 7810 7810 2710 White 8
10 AM Thu 45 48 N 8 8883 8883 3783 White 13
11 AM Thu 47 51 N 7 9518 9518 4418 White 16
12 Noon Thu 47 52 N 7 9737 9737 4637 White 17
1 PM Thu 46 51 N 7 9518 9518 4418 White 16
2 PM Thu 46 50 NW 7 9306 9306 4206 White 15
3 PM Thu 46 49 NW 7 9095 9095 3995 White 14
4 PM Thu 46 47 NW 7 8669 8669 3569 White 12
5 PM Thu 45 45 NW 7 8240 8240 3140 White 10
6 PM Thu 44 44 NW 7 8025 8025 2925 White 9
7 PM Thu 42 42 NW 7 7594 7594 2494 White 7
8 PM Thu 42 42 NW 5 7594 7594 2494 White 7
9 PM Thu 42 42 NW 5 7594 7594 2494 White 7
10 PM Thu 41 41 NW 5 7376 7376 2276 White 6
11 PM Thu 42 42 N 2 7594 7594 2494 White 7
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 N 2 7376 7376 2276 White 6
1 AM Fri 41 41 N 2 7376 7376 2276 White 6
2 AM Fri 40 40 N 2 7157 6462 1362 White 5
3 AM Fri 39 39 N 2 6938 5828 728 White 4
4 AM Fri 39 39 N 2 6938 5828 728 White 4
5 AM Fri 39 39 NE 3 6938 5828 728 White 4
6 AM Fri 38 38 NE 3 6719 5391 291 White 3
7 AM Fri 39 39 NE 3 6938 5828 728 White 4
8 AM Fri 41 41 N 2 7376 7376 2276 White 6
9 AM Fri 46 48 N 2 8883 8883 3783 White 13
10 AM Fri 52 55 N 2 10366 10366 5266 White 20
11 AM Fri 54 59 W 2 11189 11189 6089 White 24
12 Noon Fri 53 58 W 2 10984 10984 5884 White 23
1 PM Fri 52 57 W 2 10779 10779 5679 White 22
2 PM Fri 52 57 W 4 10779 10779 5679 White 22
3 PM Fri 53 56 W 4 10572 10572 5472 White 21
4 PM Fri 53 55 W 4 10366 10366 5266 White 20
5 PM Fri 52 52 W 6 9737 9737 4637 White 17
6 PM Fri 50 50 W 6 9306 9306 4206 White 15
7 PM Fri 48 48 W 6 8883 8883 3783 White 13
8 PM Fri 48 48 W 6 8883 8883 3783 White 13
9 PM Fri 48 48 W 6 8883 8883 3783 White 13
10 PM Fri 47 47 W 6 8669 8669 3569 White 12
11 PM Fri 47 47 S 3 8669 8669 3569 White 12
12 Midnight Sat 47 47 S 3 8669 8669 3569 White 12
1 AM Sat 47 47 S 3 8669 8669 3569 White 12
2 AM Sat 46 46 S 3 8455 8455 3355 White 11
3 AM Sat 45 45 S 3 8240 8240 3140 White 10
4 AM Sat 44 44 S 3 8025 8025 2925 White 9
5 AM Sat 45 45 SE 2 8240 8240 3140 White 10
6 AM Sat 44 44 SE 2 8025 8025 2925 White 9
7 AM Sat 43 43 SE 2 7810 7810 2710 White 8
8 AM Sat 44 44 SE 2 8025 8025 2925 White 9
9 AM Sat 48 49 SE 2 9095 9095 3995 White 14
10 AM Sat 52 55 SE 2 10366 10366 5266 White 20
11 AM Sat 53 57 S 5 10779 10779 5679 White 22
12 Noon Sat 52 56 S 5 10572 10572 5472 White 21
1 PM Sat 51 55 S 5 10366 10366 5266 White 20
2 PM Sat 51 55 S 5 10366 10366 5266 White 20
3 PM Sat 52 55 S 5 10366 10366 5266 White 20
4 PM Sat 52 53 S 5 9950 9950 4850 White 18
5 PM Sat 51 51 SW 9 9518 9518 4418 White 16
6 PM Sat 49 49 SW 9 9095 9095 3995 White 14
7 PM Sat 47 47 SW 9 8669 8669 3569 White 12
8 PM Sat 47 47 SW 9 8669 8669 3569 White 12
9 PM Sat 47 47 SW 9 8669 8669 3569 White 12
10 PM Sat 46 46 SW 9 8455 8455 3355 White 11
11 PM Sat 46 46 W 10 8455 8455 3355 White 11
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 W 10 8455 8455 3355 White 11
1 AM Sun 46 46 W 10 8455 8455 3355 White 11
2 AM Sun 45 45 W 10 8240 8240 3140 White 10
3 AM Sun 44 44 W 10 8025 8025 2925 White 9
4 AM Sun 43 43 W 10 7810 7810 2710 White 8
5 AM Sun 44 44 N 10 8025 8025 2925 White 9
6 AM Sun 43 43 N 10 7810 7810 2710 White 8
7 AM Sun 42 42 N 10 7594 7594 2494 White 7
8 AM Sun 43 43 N 10 7810 7810 2710 White 8
9 AM Sun 46 47 N 10 8669 8669 3569 White 12
10 AM Sun 49 51 N 10 9518 9518 4418 White 16
11 AM Sun 50 53 N 11 9950 9950 4850 White 18
12 Noon Sun 49 53 N 11 9950 9950 4850 White 18
1 PM Sun 48 52 N 11 9737 9737 4637 White 17
2 PM Sun 48 51 N 11 9518 9518 4418 White 16
3 PM Sun 48 50 N 11 9306 9306 4206 White 15
4 PM Sun 49 50 N 11 9306 9306 4206 White 15
5 PM Sun 48 48 N 12 8883 8883 3783 White 13
6 PM Sun 46 46 N 12 8455 8455 3355 White 11
7 PM Sun 45 45 N 12 8240 8240 3140 White 10
8 PM Sun 45 45 N 12 8240 8240 3140 White 10
9 PM Sun 45 45 N 12 8240 8240 3140 White 10
10 PM Sun 44 44 N 12 8025 8025 2925 White 9
11 PM Sun 44 44 N 13 8025 8025 2925 White 9
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 N 13 8025 8025 2925 White 9
1 AM Mon 44 44 N 13 8025 8025 2925 White 9
2 AM Mon 43 43 N 13 7810 7810 2710 White 8
3 AM Mon 42 42 N 13 7594 7594 2494 White 7
4 AM Mon 42 42 N 13 7594 7594 2494 White 7
5 AM Mon 42 42 NE 13 7594 7594 2494 White 7
6 AM Mon 41 41 NE 13 7376 7376 2276 White 6
7 AM Mon 41 41 NE 13 7376 7376 2276 White 6
8 AM Mon 43 43 NE 13 7810 7810 2710 White 8
9 AM Mon 49 50 NE 13 9306 9306 4206 White 15
10 AM Mon 54 57 NE 13 10779 10779 5679 White 22
11 AM Mon 56 60 NE 10 11394 11394 6294 White 25
12 Noon Mon 55 60 NE 10 11394 11394 6294 White 25
1 PM Mon 54 59 NE 10 11189 11189 6089 White 24
2 PM Mon 54 58 NE 10 10984 10984 5884 White 23
3 PM Mon 54 57 NE 10 10779 10779 5679 White 22
4 PM Mon 55 56 NE 10 10572 10572 5472 White 21
5 PM Mon 53 53 NE 7 9950 9950 4850 White 18
6 PM Mon 51 51 NE 7 9518 9518 4418 White 16
7 PM Mon 49 49 NE 7 9095 9095 3995 White 14
8 PM Mon 50 50 NE 7 9306 9306 4206 White 15
9 PM Mon 49 49 NE 7 9095 9095 3995 White 14
10 PM Mon 49 49 NE 7 9095 9095 3995 White 14
11 PM Mon 49 49 NE 7 9095 9095 3995 White 14
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 NE 7 8883 8883 3783 White 13
1 AM Tue 48 48 NE 7 8883 8883 3783 White 13
2 AM Tue 47 47 NE 7 8669 8669 3569 White 12
3 AM Tue 46 46 NE 7 8455 8455 3355 White 11
4 AM Tue 46 46 NE 7 8455 8455 3355 White 11
5 AM Tue 46 46 E 7 8455 8455 3355 White 11
6 AM Tue 45 45 E 7 8240 8240 3140 White 10
7 AM Tue 44 44 E 7 8025 8025 2925 White 9
8 AM Tue 46 46 E 7 8455 8455 3355 White 11
9 AM Tue 52 53 E 7 9950 9950 4850 White 18
10 AM Tue 57 60 E 7 11394 11394 6294 White 25
11 AM Tue 59 63 SE 5 12004 12004 6904 White 28
12 Noon Tue 58 63 SE 5 12004 12004 6904 White 28
1 PM Tue 57 62 SE 5 11801 11801 6701 White 27
2 PM Tue 57 61 SE 5 11598 11598 6498 White 26
3 PM Tue 57 60 SE 5 11394 11394 6294 White 25
4 PM Tue 57 58 SE 5 10984 10984 5884 White 23
5 PM Tue 56 56 S 3 10572 10572 5472 White 21
6 PM Tue 54 54 S 3 10158 10158 5058 White 19
7 PM Tue 51 51 S 3 9518 9518 4418 White 16
8 PM Tue 52 52 S 3 9737 9737 4637 White 17
9 PM Tue 51 51 S 3 9518 9518 4418 White 16
10 PM Tue 51 51 S 3 9518 9518 4418 White 16
11 PM Tue 51 51 SE 5 9518 9518 4418 White 16
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 SE 5 9518 9518 4418 White 16
1 AM Wed 51 51 SE 5 9518 9518 4418 White 16
2 AM Wed 49 49 SE 5 9095 9095 3995 White 14
3 AM Wed 48 48 SE 5 8883 8883 3783 White 13
4 AM Wed 48 48 SE 5 8883 8883 3783 White 13
5 AM Wed 48 48 E 7 8883 8883 3783 White 13
6 AM Wed 47 47 E 7 8669 8669 3569 White 12
7 AM Wed 46 46 E 7 8455 8455 3355 White 11

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com