Detailed Predictions for: Box Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 6200
LZ Altitude (f): 4450
Sounding

Station:

 KTUS

Date/Time:

 18 MAY 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
6 AM Fri 61 61 S 20 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 59 59 S 20 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 66 68 S 20 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 70 73 SW 22 6064 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 72 77 SW 22 9350 6561 361 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 74 80 SW 22 11582 8624 2424 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 75 82 SW 25 12646 11183 4983 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 77 84 SW 25 13954 11843 5643 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 79 85 SW 25 15688 12483 6283 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 80 84 SW 26 13954 11843 5643 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 82 84 SW 26 13954 11843 5643 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 83 84 SW 26 13954 11843 5643 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 82 82 SW 25 12646 11183 4983 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 81 81 SW 25 11935 10848 4648 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 78 78 SW 25 10909 7226 1026 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 72 72 SW 22 5715 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 67 67 SW 22 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 67 67 SW 22 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 SW 14 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 63 63 SW 14 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 62 62 SW 14 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 63 63 SW 10 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 62 62 SW 10 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 61 61 SW 10 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 61 61 S 8 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 61 S 8 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 66 68 S 8 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 70 74 S 8 6590 6200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 71 78 S 8 10909 7226 1026 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 73 81 S 8 11935 10848 4648 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 74 83 W 13 13317 11515 5315 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 76 85 W 13 15688 12483 6283 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 78 85 W 13 15688 12483 6283 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 78 83 W 14 13317 11515 5315 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 81 84 W 14 13954 11843 5643 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 82 83 W 14 13317 11515 5315 Blue 9
6 PM Sat 80 80 W 12 11582 8624 2424 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 80 80 W 12 11582 8624 2424 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 77 77 W 12 9350 6561 361 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 71 71 W 8 5362 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 67 67 W 8 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 68 68 W 8 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 65 65 SW 6 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 63 63 SW 6 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 63 63 SW 6 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 63 63 S 5 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 62 62 S 5 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 62 62 S 5 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 62 62 SW 8 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 61 62 SW 8 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 68 70 SW 8 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 73 77 SW 8 9350 6561 361 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 74 81 SW 8 11935 10848 4648 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 76 84 SW 8 13954 11843 5643 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 78 87 W 10 20132 13779 7579 White 13
1 PM Sun 80 89 W 10 20522 16605 10405 White 15
2 PM Sun 82 89 W 10 20522 16605 10405 White 15
3 PM Sun 83 88 W 10 20328 15110 8910 White 14
4 PM Sun 85 88 W 10 20328 15110 8910 White 14
5 PM Sun 87 88 W 10 20328 15110 8910 White 14
6 PM Sun 85 85 W 8 15688 12483 6283 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 85 85 W 8 15688 12483 6283 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 82 82 W 8 12646 11183 4983 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 76 76 W 8 7915 6200 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 72 72 W 8 5715 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 72 72 W 8 5715 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 69 69 S 5 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 68 68 S 5 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 67 67 S 5 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 68 68 S 5 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 67 67 S 5 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 66 66 S 5 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 67 67 E 8 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 65 66 E 8 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 71 73 E 8 6064 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 76 80 E 8 11582 8624 2424 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 78 85 E 8 15688 12483 6283 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 79 87 E 8 20132 13779 7579 White 13
12 Noon Mon 81 90 W 14 20716 17770 11570 White 16
1 PM Mon 83 91 W 14 20910 20518 14318 White 17
2 PM Mon 84 91 W 14 20910 20518 14318 White 17
3 PM Mon 85 90 W 14 20716 17770 11570 White 16
4 PM Mon 88 91 W 14 20910 20518 14318 White 17
5 PM Mon 89 90 W 14 20716 17770 11570 White 16
6 PM Mon 88 88 SW 13 20328 15110 8910 White 14
7 PM Mon 87 87 SW 13 20132 13779 7579 White 13
8 PM Mon 84 84 SW 13 13954 11843 5643 Blue 10
9 PM Mon 78 78 SW 13 10909 7226 1026 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 74 74 SW 13 6590 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 74 74 SW 13 6590 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 72 72 S 6 5715 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 70 70 S 6 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 70 70 S 6 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 70 70 S 6 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 69 69 S 6 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 69 69 S 6 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 69 69 S 13 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 67 68 S 13 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 72 74 S 13 6590 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 76 80 S 13 11582 8624 2424 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 77 83 S 13 13317 11515 5315 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 79 87 S 13 20132 13779 7579 White 13
12 Noon Tue 80 88 SW 20 20328 15110 8910 White 14
1 PM Tue 81 89 SW 20 20522 16605 10405 White 15
2 PM Tue 82 89 SW 20 20522 16605 10405 White 15
3 PM Tue 83 88 SW 20 20328 15110 8910 White 14
4 PM Tue 85 88 SW 20 20328 15110 8910 White 14
5 PM Tue 86 87 SW 20 20132 13779 7579 White 13
6 PM Tue 84 84 SW 18 13954 11843 5643 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 83 83 SW 18 13317 11515 5315 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 81 81 SW 18 11935 10848 4648 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 74 74 SW 18 6590 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 70 70 SW 18 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 70 70 SW 18 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 67 67 S 9 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 66 66 S 9 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 65 65 S 9 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 66 66 S 9 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 65 S 9 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 64 64 S 9 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 64 64 SW 16 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 64 SW 16 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 68 70 SW 16 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 72 76 SW 16 7915 6200 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 73 79 SW 16 11247 7862 1662 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 75 83 SW 16 13317 11515 5315 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 76 84 W 17 13954 11843 5643 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 78 86 W 17 17098 13147 6947 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 79 86 W 17 17098 13147 6947 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 80 85 W 17 15688 12483 6283 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 82 85 W 17 15688 12483 6283 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 83 84 W 17 13954 11843 5643 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 81 81 SW 17 11935 10848 4648 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 81 81 SW 17 11935 10848 4648 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 78 78 SW 17 10909 7226 1026 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 72 72 SW 17 5715 6200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 68 68 SW 17 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 68 68 SW 17 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 S 8 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 64 64 S 8 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 63 63 S 8 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 64 64 S 8 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 63 63 S 8 5108 6200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 62 62 S 8 5108 6200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com