Detailed Predictions for: A Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 2770
LZ Altitude (f): 2370
Sounding

Station:

 KTUS

Date/Time:

 18 MAY 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
6 AM Fri 70 70 S 14 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 71 71 S 14 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 75 77 S 14 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 79 82 SW 17 4254 2770 0 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 85 90 SW 17 6731 5450 2680 Blue 13
11 AM Fri 89 95 SW 17 11206 7871 5101 Blue 18
12 Noon Fri 92 99 SW 24 13107 11433 8663 Blue 22
1 PM Fri 95 102 SW 24 17169 12888 10118 White 25
2 PM Fri 97 103 SW 24 17366 13497 10727 White 26
3 PM Fri 98 102 SW 24 17169 12888 10118 White 25
4 PM Fri 98 101 SW 24 14863 12248 9478 Blue 24
5 PM Fri 98 99 SW 24 13107 11433 8663 Blue 22
6 PM Fri 97 97 SW 24 11845 10793 8023 Blue 20
7 PM Fri 94 94 SW 24 10882 7270 4500 Blue 17
8 PM Fri 91 91 SW 24 7367 5783 3013 Blue 14
9 PM Fri 86 86 SW 13 5142 4769 1999 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 83 83 SW 13 4774 2770 0 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 80 80 SW 13 2735 2770 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 78 78 S 8 2537 2770 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 73 73 S 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 73 73 S 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 71 71 SE 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 70 70 SE 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 68 68 SE 9 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 65 65 SE 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 66 67 SE 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 70 72 SE 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 75 79 S 6 2636 2770 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 80 86 S 6 5142 4769 1999 Blue 9
11 AM Sat 85 93 S 6 9400 6643 3873 Blue 16
12 Noon Sat 89 98 SW 8 12464 11114 8344 Blue 21
1 PM Sat 91 100 SW 8 13720 11748 8978 Blue 23
2 PM Sat 93 100 SW 8 13720 11748 8978 Blue 23
3 PM Sat 94 99 W 10 13107 11433 8663 Blue 22
4 PM Sat 95 98 W 10 12464 11114 8344 Blue 21
5 PM Sat 94 95 W 10 11206 7871 5101 Blue 18
6 PM Sat 94 94 W 9 10882 7270 4500 Blue 17
7 PM Sat 91 91 W 9 7367 5783 3013 Blue 14
8 PM Sat 88 88 W 9 5819 4986 2216 Blue 11
9 PM Sat 84 84 W 8 4871 3290 520 Blue 7
10 PM Sat 81 81 W 8 3317 2770 0 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 78 78 W 8 2537 2770 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 76 76 S 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 72 72 S 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 72 72 S 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 70 70 SE 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 69 69 SE 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 67 67 SE 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 65 65 S 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 67 S 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 71 73 S 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 77 81 S 8 3317 2770 0 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 83 89 S 8 6153 5113 2343 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 89 97 S 8 11845 10793 8023 Blue 20
12 Noon Sun 92 101 N 8 14863 12248 9478 Blue 24
1 PM Sun 95 104 N 8 17563 14080 11310 White 27
2 PM Sun 98 105 N 8 17760 15753 12983 White 28
3 PM Sun 99 105 N 8 17760 15753 12983 White 28
4 PM Sun 100 103 N 8 17366 13497 10727 White 26
5 PM Sun 99 100 N 8 13720 11748 8978 Blue 23
6 PM Sun 99 99 W 6 13107 11433 8663 Blue 22
7 PM Sun 96 96 W 6 11527 8450 5680 Blue 19
8 PM Sun 93 93 W 6 9400 6643 3873 Blue 16
9 PM Sun 88 88 W 6 5819 4986 2216 Blue 11
10 PM Sun 85 85 W 6 4996 4203 1433 Blue 8
11 PM Sun 83 83 W 6 4774 2770 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 81 81 SE 6 3317 2770 0 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 77 77 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 76 76 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 75 75 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 73 73 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 71 71 SE 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 69 69 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 70 71 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 75 77 E 7 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 81 85 E 7 4996 4203 1433 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 87 94 E 7 10882 7270 4500 Blue 17
11 AM Mon 93 101 E 7 14863 12248 9478 Blue 24
12 Noon Mon 97 106 W 10 17955 16987 14217 White 29
1 PM Mon 100 109 W 10 18528 18528 15758 White 32
2 PM Mon 103 110 W 10 18717 18717 15947 White 33
3 PM Mon 104 109 W 10 18528 18528 15758 White 32
4 PM Mon 104 107 W 10 18146 18146 15376 White 30
5 PM Mon 104 105 W 10 17760 15753 12983 White 28
6 PM Mon 103 103 SW 9 17366 13497 10727 White 26
7 PM Mon 100 100 SW 9 13720 11748 8978 Blue 23
8 PM Mon 97 97 SW 9 11845 10793 8023 Blue 20
9 PM Mon 92 92 SW 9 7976 6114 3344 Blue 15
10 PM Mon 89 89 SW 9 6153 5113 2343 Blue 12
11 PM Mon 86 86 SW 9 5142 4769 1999 Blue 9
12 Midnight Tue 84 84 S 6 4871 3290 520 Blue 7
1 AM Tue 79 79 S 6 2636 2770 0 Blue 2
2 AM Tue 79 79 S 6 2636 2770 0 Blue 2
3 AM Tue 77 77 S 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 76 76 S 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 73 73 S 6 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 71 71 S 13 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 72 73 S 13 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 76 78 S 13 2537 2770 0 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 81 85 S 13 4996 4203 1433 Blue 8
10 AM Tue 87 93 S 13 9400 6643 3873 Blue 16
11 AM Tue 92 100 S 13 13720 11748 8978 Blue 23
12 Noon Tue 95 103 SW 15 17366 13497 10727 White 26
1 PM Tue 98 106 SW 15 17955 16987 14217 White 29
2 PM Tue 100 107 SW 15 18146 18146 15376 White 30
3 PM Tue 101 106 SW 15 17955 16987 14217 White 29
4 PM Tue 102 105 SW 15 17760 15753 12983 White 28
5 PM Tue 101 102 SW 15 17169 12888 10118 White 25
6 PM Tue 101 101 SW 16 14863 12248 9478 Blue 24
7 PM Tue 98 98 SW 16 12464 11114 8344 Blue 21
8 PM Tue 95 95 SW 16 11206 7871 5101 Blue 18
9 PM Tue 90 90 SW 16 6731 5450 2680 Blue 13
10 PM Tue 86 86 SW 16 5142 4769 1999 Blue 9
11 PM Tue 83 83 SW 16 4774 2770 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 81 81 S 8 3317 2770 0 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 77 77 S 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 76 76 S 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 74 74 S 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 73 73 S 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 71 71 S 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 69 69 SW 14 0 2770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 70 71 SW 14 0 2770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 74 76 SW 14 0 2770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 79 83 SW 14 4774 2770 0 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 84 90 SW 14 6731 5450 2680 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 89 97 SW 14 11845 10793 8023 Blue 20
12 Noon Wed 92 100 W 17 13720 11748 8978 Blue 23
1 PM Wed 94 102 W 17 17169 12888 10118 White 25
2 PM Wed 97 104 W 17 17563 14080 11310 White 27
3 PM Wed 97 102 W 17 17169 12888 10118 White 25
4 PM Wed 98 101 W 17 14863 12248 9478 Blue 24
5 PM Wed 98 99 W 17 13107 11433 8663 Blue 22
6 PM Wed 97 97 SW 17 11845 10793 8023 Blue 20
7 PM Wed 94 94 SW 17 10882 7270 4500 Blue 17
8 PM Wed 92 92 SW 17 7976 6114 3344 Blue 15
9 PM Wed 87 87 SW 17 5482 4861 2091 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 84 84 SW 17 4871 3290 520 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 81 81 SW 17 3317 2770 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 79 79 S 8 2636 2770 0 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 75 75 S 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 75 75 S 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 73 73 S 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 72 72 S 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 70 70 S 8 0 2770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com