Detailed Predictions for: Woodrat Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 3700
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

 KMFR

Date/Time:

 18 MAY 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 35 35 NW 1 1581 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 36 36 NW 1 1581 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 38 38 NW 1 1581 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 41 42 N 2 1581 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 45 47 N 2 3076 3700 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 51 55 N 2 5484 5026 1326 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 56 61 N 5 6609 6003 2303 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 61 67 N 5 7955 7242 3542 Blue 22
1 PM Fri 65 72 N 5 9763 8958 5258 Blue 27
2 PM Fri 69 75 N 9 10677 9698 5998 Blue 30
3 PM Fri 71 76 N 9 11342 9943 6243 White 31
4 PM Fri 72 76 N 9 11342 9943 6243 White 31
5 PM Fri 71 73 NW 9 10009 9206 5506 Blue 28
6 PM Fri 69 70 NW 9 9267 7904 4204 Blue 25
7 PM Fri 65 65 NW 9 7504 6798 3098 Blue 20
8 PM Fri 61 61 N 8 6609 6003 2303 Blue 16
9 PM Fri 56 56 N 8 5699 5203 1503 Blue 11
10 PM Fri 51 51 N 8 4859 3700 0 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 47 47 NW 3 3076 3700 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 NW 3 1581 3700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 42 42 NW 3 1581 3700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 41 41 N 2 1581 3700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 N 2 1581 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 38 38 N 2 1581 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 38 38 NE 1 1581 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 39 NE 1 1581 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 41 NE 1 1581 3700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 45 NE 1 2007 3700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 52 NE 1 5044 3982 282 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 56 60 NE 1 6383 5879 2179 Blue 15
11 AM Sat 62 66 N 5 7726 7021 3321 Blue 21
12 Noon Sat 67 72 N 5 9763 8958 5258 Blue 27
1 PM Sat 71 77 N 5 11543 10246 6546 White 32
2 PM Sat 73 78 N 5 11746 10578 6878 White 33
3 PM Sat 75 80 N 5 12150 11910 8210 White 35
4 PM Sat 76 79 N 5 11948 10907 7207 White 34
5 PM Sat 75 77 NW 6 11543 10246 6546 White 32
6 PM Sat 73 74 NW 6 10341 9453 5753 Blue 29
7 PM Sat 70 70 NW 6 9267 7904 4204 Blue 25
8 PM Sat 66 66 NW 6 7726 7021 3321 Blue 21
9 PM Sat 61 61 NW 6 6609 6003 2303 Blue 16
10 PM Sat 57 57 NW 6 5895 5360 1660 Blue 12
11 PM Sat 54 54 N 2 5373 4840 1140 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sun 51 51 N 2 4859 3700 0 Blue 6
1 AM Sun 50 50 N 2 4465 3700 0 Blue 5
2 AM Sun 49 49 N 2 4012 3700 0 Blue 4
3 AM Sun 47 47 N 2 3076 3700 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sun 45 45 N 2 2007 3700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 45 E 1 2007 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 46 E 1 2579 3700 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sun 48 48 E 1 3549 3700 0 Blue 3
8 AM Sun 51 51 E 1 4859 3700 0 Blue 6
9 AM Sun 56 57 E 1 5895 5360 1660 Blue 12
10 AM Sun 62 64 E 1 7282 6574 2874 Blue 19
11 AM Sun 68 70 W 3 9267 7904 4204 Blue 25
12 Noon Sun 74 77 W 3 11543 10246 6546 White 32
1 PM Sun 78 81 W 3 12350 12191 8491 White 36
2 PM Sun 81 84 W 3 12948 12948 9248 White 39
3 PM Sun 83 85 W 3 13145 13145 9445 White 40
4 PM Sun 83 84 W 3 12948 12948 9248 White 39
5 PM Sun 81 82 NW 8 12549 12414 8714 White 37
6 PM Sun 79 79 NW 8 11948 10907 7207 White 34
7 PM Sun 75 75 NW 8 10677 9698 5998 Blue 30
8 PM Sun 71 71 NW 8 9516 8427 4727 Blue 26
9 PM Sun 67 67 NW 8 7955 7242 3542 Blue 22
10 PM Sun 62 62 NW 8 6834 6127 2427 Blue 17
11 PM Sun 58 58 NW 3 6019 5472 1772 Blue 13
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 NW 3 5699 5203 1503 Blue 11
1 AM Mon 55 55 NW 3 5484 5026 1326 Blue 10
2 AM Mon 54 54 NW 3 5373 4840 1140 Blue 9
3 AM Mon 52 52 NW 3 5044 3982 282 Blue 7
4 AM Mon 51 51 NW 3 4859 3700 0 Blue 6
5 AM Mon 50 50 SW 2 4465 3700 0 Blue 5
6 AM Mon 50 50 SW 2 4465 3700 0 Blue 5
7 AM Mon 51 51 SW 2 4859 3700 0 Blue 6
8 AM Mon 52 52 SW 2 5044 3982 282 Blue 7
9 AM Mon 55 56 SW 2 5699 5203 1503 Blue 11
10 AM Mon 59 61 SW 2 6609 6003 2303 Blue 16
11 AM Mon 63 64 W 3 7282 6574 2874 Blue 19
12 Noon Mon 66 67 W 3 7955 7242 3542 Blue 22
1 PM Mon 69 70 W 3 9267 7904 4204 Blue 25
2 PM Mon 70 71 W 3 9516 8427 4727 Blue 26
3 PM Mon 71 72 W 3 9763 8958 5258 Blue 27
4 PM Mon 70 71 W 3 9516 8427 4727 Blue 26
5 PM Mon 69 69 NW 6 9017 7684 3984 Blue 24
6 PM Mon 68 68 NW 6 8555 7464 3764 Blue 23
7 PM Mon 65 65 NW 6 7504 6798 3098 Blue 20
8 PM Mon 62 62 NW 6 6834 6127 2427 Blue 17
9 PM Mon 59 59 NW 6 6156 5655 1955 Blue 14
10 PM Mon 56 56 NW 6 5699 5203 1503 Blue 11
11 PM Mon 54 54 W 1 5373 4840 1140 Blue 9
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 W 1 5044 3982 282 Blue 7
1 AM Tue 51 51 W 1 4859 3700 0 Blue 6
2 AM Tue 50 50 W 1 4465 3700 0 Blue 5
3 AM Tue 48 48 W 1 3549 3700 0 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 47 47 W 1 3076 3700 0 Blue 2
5 AM Tue 47 47 W 2 3076 3700 0 Blue 2
6 AM Tue 47 47 W 2 3076 3700 0 Blue 2
7 AM Tue 48 48 W 2 3549 3700 0 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 50 50 W 2 4465 3700 0 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 53 53 W 2 5222 4429 729 Blue 8
10 AM Tue 57 57 W 2 5895 5360 1660 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 61 63 W 5 7058 6350 2650 Blue 18
12 Noon Tue 65 68 W 5 8555 7464 3764 Blue 23
1 PM Tue 67 70 W 5 9267 7904 4204 Blue 25
2 PM Tue 69 72 W 5 9763 8958 5258 Blue 27
3 PM Tue 71 74 W 5 10341 9453 5753 Blue 29
4 PM Tue 71 73 W 5 10009 9206 5506 Blue 28
5 PM Tue 70 71 NW 9 9516 8427 4727 Blue 26
6 PM Tue 68 68 NW 9 8555 7464 3764 Blue 23
7 PM Tue 65 65 NW 9 7504 6798 3098 Blue 20
8 PM Tue 62 62 NW 9 6834 6127 2427 Blue 17
9 PM Tue 59 59 NW 9 6156 5655 1955 Blue 14
10 PM Tue 55 55 NW 9 5484 5026 1326 Blue 10
11 PM Tue 53 53 N 5 5222 4429 729 Blue 8
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 N 5 4859 3700 0 Blue 6
1 AM Wed 50 50 N 5 4465 3700 0 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 49 49 N 5 4012 3700 0 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 47 47 N 5 3076 3700 0 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 46 46 N 5 2579 3700 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 45 45 NW 3 2007 3700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 NW 3 2007 3700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 47 NW 3 3076 3700 0 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 49 49 NW 3 4012 3700 0 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 53 53 NW 3 5222 4429 729 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 57 58 NW 3 6019 5472 1772 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 61 64 N 6 7282 6574 2874 Blue 19
12 Noon Wed 64 67 N 6 7955 7242 3542 Blue 22
1 PM Wed 67 71 N 6 9516 8427 4727 Blue 26
2 PM Wed 69 72 N 6 9763 8958 5258 Blue 27
3 PM Wed 71 74 N 6 10341 9453 5753 Blue 29
4 PM Wed 72 74 N 6 10341 9453 5753 Blue 29
5 PM Wed 72 73 N 9 10009 9206 5506 Blue 28
6 PM Wed 70 70 N 9 9267 7904 4204 Blue 25
7 PM Wed 67 67 N 9 7955 7242 3542 Blue 22
8 PM Wed 64 64 N 9 7282 6574 2874 Blue 19
9 PM Wed 59 59 N 9 6156 5655 1955 Blue 14
10 PM Wed 55 55 N 9 5484 5026 1326 Blue 10
11 PM Wed 51 51 NW 3 4859 3700 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 NW 3 4012 3700 0 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 47 47 NW 3 3076 3700 0 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 46 46 NW 3 2579 3700 0 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 45 45 NW 3 2007 3700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 43 43 NW 3 1581 3700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com