Detailed Predictions for: Jean Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 3304
LZ Altitude (f): 2844
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 41 41 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 41 41 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 39 39 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 39 39 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 42 42 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 48 48 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 51 51 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 55 56 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 57 58 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 57 58 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 58 58 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 57 57 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 56 56 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 51 51 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 48 48 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 47 47 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 46 46 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 44 44 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 44 44 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 43 43 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 43 43 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 44 44 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 43 43 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 43 43 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 43 43 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 42 42 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 43 43 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 45 45 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 51 51 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 53 53 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 55 55 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 57 57 S 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 57 57 S 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 58 58 S 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 57 57 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 56 56 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 54 54 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 53 53 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 51 51 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 51 51 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 50 50 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 49 49 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 48 48 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 46 46 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 45 45 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 44 44 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 43 43 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 42 42 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 40 40 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 38 38 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 38 38 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 42 42 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 47 47 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 52 53 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 55 57 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 57 59 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 57 59 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 57 58 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 56 56 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 55 55 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 52 52 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 49 49 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 46 46 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 44 44 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 42 42 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 41 41 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 40 40 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 39 39 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 38 38 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 37 37 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 36 36 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 36 36 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 34 34 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 34 34 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 35 35 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 39 39 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 45 46 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 50 51 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 52 54 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 54 56 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 55 56 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 56 57 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 56 56 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 55 55 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 52 52 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 48 48 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 44 44 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 43 43 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 42 42 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 41 41 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 40 40 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 39 39 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 38 38 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 37 37 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 37 37 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 36 36 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 35 35 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 34 34 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 35 35 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 40 40 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 46 46 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 52 53 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 55 56 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 57 58 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 59 60 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 60 60 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 60 60 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 59 59 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 55 55 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 51 51 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 47 47 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 45 45 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 44 44 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 44 44 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 43 43 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 41 41 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 41 41 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 40 40 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 39 39 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 37 37 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 36 36 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 37 37 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 40 40 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 46 46 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 50 51 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 53 55 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 55 57 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 55 57 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 55 56 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 54 54 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 52 52 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 49 49 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 46 46 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 43 43 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 42 42 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 40 40 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 39 39 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 38 38 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 37 37 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 36 36 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 36 36 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 35 35 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com