Detailed Predictions for: Jean Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.8093, -115.2139, 3304
LZ Altitude (f): 2844
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

23 JAN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 SW 21 5455 4974 1670 White 1
1 AM Sat 40 40 SW 18 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 39 39 SW 17 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 37 37 SW 16 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 37 37 SW 15 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 37 37 SW 14 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 35 35 SW 13 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 35 35 SW 12 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 36 36 SW 12 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 41 41 SW 10 5455 4974 1670 White 1
10 AM Sat 44 44 SW 10 6102 5907 2603 White 4
11 AM Sat 47 48 SW 10 6956 6956 3652 White 8
12 Noon Sat 49 50 SW 9 7382 7382 4078 White 10
1 PM Sat 49 50 SW 9 7382 7382 4078 White 10
2 PM Sat 50 51 SSW 8 7594 7594 4290 White 11
3 PM Sat 50 50 SSW 8 7382 7382 4078 White 10
4 PM Sat 49 49 S 7 7170 7170 3866 White 9
5 PM Sat 48 48 S 6 6956 6956 3652 White 8
6 PM Sat 45 45 SSE 6 6316 6316 3012 White 5
7 PM Sat 44 44 SE 5 6102 5907 2603 White 4
8 PM Sat 42 42 SSE 5 5672 4974 1670 White 2
9 PM Sat 39 39 S 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 38 38 S 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 37 37 S 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 36 36 SSW 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 35 35 SSW 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 34 34 SSW 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 31 31 SW 3 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 32 32 WSW 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 32 32 WSW 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 30 30 WSW 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 30 30 W 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 33 33 W 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 38 39 W 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 43 45 W 7 6316 6316 3012 White 5
11 AM Sun 46 48 W 8 6956 6956 3652 White 8
12 Noon Sun 48 50 W 9 7382 7382 4078 White 10
1 PM Sun 49 51 WSW 10 7594 7594 4290 White 11
2 PM Sun 50 51 WSW 10 7594 7594 4290 White 11
3 PM Sun 50 50 WSW 12 7382 7382 4078 White 10
4 PM Sun 49 49 WSW 13 7170 7170 3866 White 9
5 PM Sun 48 48 SW 12 6956 6956 3652 White 8
6 PM Sun 45 45 SW 12 6316 6316 3012 White 5
7 PM Sun 43 43 SSW 12 5887 4974 1670 White 3
8 PM Sun 41 41 SSW 12 5455 4974 1670 White 1
9 PM Sun 40 40 SSW 13 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 39 39 SSW 13 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 38 38 SSW 12 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 37 37 SSW 12 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 37 37 S 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 37 37 S 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 37 37 S 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 37 37 S 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 36 36 SSE 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 35 35 SSE 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 35 35 SSE 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 36 36 SSE 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 39 39 S 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 40 40 S 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 41 41 S 10 5455 4974 1670 White 1
12 Noon Mon 41 41 S 12 5455 4974 1670 White 1
1 PM Mon 40 40 S 12 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 41 41 S 12 5455 4974 1670 White 1
3 PM Mon 41 41 SSW 12 5455 4974 1670 White 1
4 PM Mon 40 40 SSW 12 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 39 39 SSW 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 38 38 SW 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 36 36 SW 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 36 36 SW 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 36 36 SW 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 35 35 SW 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 33 33 SW 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 31 31 SW 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 30 30 SW 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 29 29 SW 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 30 30 SW 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 30 30 SW 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 29 29 SW 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 27 27 WSW 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 27 27 WSW 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 29 29 WSW 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 31 31 WSW 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 34 35 W 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 37 38 W 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 38 39 W 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 39 40 W 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 40 41 WSW 9 5455 4974 1670 White 1
3 PM Tue 40 40 WSW 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 39 39 WSW 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 37 37 SW 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 35 35 SW 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 32 32 SSW 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 31 31 SSW 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 29 29 SSW 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 28 28 S 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 26 26 S 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 25 25 S 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 24 24 S 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 25 25 S 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 26 26 SSE 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 27 27 SSE 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 26 26 SSE 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 25 25 SSE 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 25 25 SSE 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 28 28 SSE 12 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 33 33 SSE 12 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 37 37 SSE 13 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 40 40 SSE 13 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 42 42 SSE 14 5672 4974 1670 White 2
1 PM Wed 43 43 SSE 14 5887 4974 1670 White 3
2 PM Wed 43 43 SSE 14 5887 4974 1670 White 3
3 PM Wed 43 43 SSE 13 5887 4974 1670 White 3
4 PM Wed 43 43 SSE 13 5887 4974 1670 White 3
5 PM Wed 42 42 SSE 13 5672 4974 1670 White 2
6 PM Wed 41 41 SSE 12 5455 4974 1670 White 1
7 PM Wed 40 40 SSE 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 39 39 SSE 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 37 37 SSE 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 36 36 SSE 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 35 35 SE 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 34 34 SE 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 33 33 SE 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 33 33 SE 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 33 33 ESE 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 32 32 ESE 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 31 31 E 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 30 30 E 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 31 31 E 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 34 34 E 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 38 38 E 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 42 42 E 8 5672 4974 1670 White 2
11 AM Thu 44 44 E 8 6102 5907 2603 White 4
12 Noon Thu 46 46 E 8 6529 6529 3225 White 6
1 PM Thu 46 46 E 8 6529 6529 3225 White 6
2 PM Thu 47 47 ESE 8 6744 6744 3440 White 7
3 PM Thu 47 47 ESE 8 6744 6744 3440 White 7
4 PM Thu 46 46 ESE 8 6529 6529 3225 White 6

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com