Detailed Predictions for: Jean Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 3304
LZ Altitude (f): 2844
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

18 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 49 49 W 6 5035 4974 1670 Blue 2
6 AM Sat 48 48 W 5 4997 4974 1670 Blue 1
7 AM Sat 51 51 NW 5 5124 4995 1691 Blue 4
8 AM Sat 56 58 NW 3 7347 6103 2799 Blue 10
9 AM Sat 60 63 N 3 9537 7802 4498 White 15
10 AM Sat 65 70 E 2 11004 10594 7290 White 22
11 AM Sat 68 74 E 3 11827 11827 8523 White 26
12 Noon Sat 72 78 SE 5 12640 12640 9336 White 30
1 PM Sat 73 79 S 6 12843 12843 9539 White 31
2 PM Sat 75 80 S 8 13044 13044 9740 White 32
3 PM Sat 77 81 S 10 13245 13245 9941 White 33
4 PM Sat 76 78 SW 12 12640 12640 9336 White 30
5 PM Sat 76 77 SW 14 12439 12439 9135 White 29
6 PM Sat 74 74 SW 15 11827 11827 8523 White 26
7 PM Sat 72 72 SW 16 11417 11015 7711 White 24
8 PM Sat 69 69 SW 17 10797 10422 7118 White 21
9 PM Sat 67 67 SW 18 10381 10079 6775 White 19
10 PM Sat 65 65 SW 20 9962 8437 5133 White 17
11 PM Sat 63 63 SW 20 9537 7802 4498 White 15
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 SW 22 8609 7627 4323 Blue 14
1 AM Sun 60 60 SW 23 7829 6717 3413 Blue 12
2 AM Sun 58 58 SW 25 7347 6103 2799 Blue 10
3 AM Sun 57 57 SW 25 6790 5901 2597 Blue 9
4 AM Sun 56 56 SW 26 6263 5551 2247 Blue 8
5 AM Sun 55 55 SW 28 6117 5196 1892 Blue 7
6 AM Sun 53 53 SW 28 5579 5071 1767 Blue 5
7 AM Sun 53 53 SW 29 5579 5071 1767 Blue 5
8 AM Sun 55 56 SW 30 6263 5551 2247 Blue 8
9 AM Sun 57 60 SW 30 7829 6717 3413 Blue 12
10 AM Sun 60 64 SW 30 9750 7976 4672 White 16
11 AM Sun 63 69 SW 30 10797 10422 7118 White 21
12 Noon Sun 66 73 SW 30 11621 11232 7928 White 25
1 PM Sun 67 74 SW 30 11827 11827 8523 White 26
2 PM Sun 68 74 SW 30 11827 11827 8523 White 26
3 PM Sun 68 72 SW 29 11417 11015 7711 White 24
4 PM Sun 68 71 SW 29 11211 10797 7493 White 23
5 PM Sun 66 67 SW 28 10381 10079 6775 White 19
6 PM Sun 64 64 SW 26 9750 7976 4672 White 16
7 PM Sun 61 61 SW 26 8005 7287 3983 Blue 13
8 PM Sun 57 57 W 25 6790 5901 2597 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 55 55 SW 25 6117 5196 1892 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 53 53 SW 24 5579 5071 1767 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 52 52 SW 23 5221 5033 1729 Blue 5
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 SW 22 5073 4974 1670 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 49 49 SW 20 5035 4974 1670 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 47 47 SW 18 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 W 16 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 45 W 15 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 45 45 W 13 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 W 12 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 48 W 10 4997 4974 1670 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 51 52 W 9 5221 5033 1729 Blue 5
9 AM Mon 54 56 W 8 6263 5551 2247 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 58 62 NW 8 8609 7627 4323 Blue 14
11 AM Mon 62 67 NW 8 10381 10079 6775 White 19
12 Noon Mon 64 69 NW 8 10797 10422 7118 White 21
1 PM Mon 66 71 W 9 11211 10797 7493 White 23
2 PM Mon 68 72 W 10 11417 11015 7711 White 24
3 PM Mon 69 72 W 13 11417 11015 7711 White 24
4 PM Mon 70 72 W 15 11417 11015 7711 White 24
5 PM Mon 70 71 W 16 11211 10797 7493 White 23
6 PM Mon 68 68 W 16 10590 10251 6947 White 20
7 PM Mon 65 65 W 16 9962 8437 5133 White 17
8 PM Mon 62 62 SW 15 8609 7627 4323 Blue 14
9 PM Mon 60 60 SW 15 7829 6717 3413 Blue 12
10 PM Mon 58 58 SW 15 7347 6103 2799 Blue 10
11 PM Mon 57 57 SW 15 6790 5901 2597 Blue 9
12 Midnight Tue 55 55 SW 16 6117 5196 1892 Blue 7
1 AM Tue 53 53 SW 16 5579 5071 1767 Blue 5
2 AM Tue 51 51 SW 16 5124 4995 1691 Blue 4
3 AM Tue 49 49 SW 16 5035 4974 1670 Blue 2
4 AM Tue 48 48 SW 16 4997 4974 1670 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 48 48 SW 16 4997 4974 1670 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 49 49 SW 17 5035 4974 1670 Blue 2
7 AM Tue 51 51 SW 20 5124 4995 1691 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 54 55 SW 21 6117 5196 1892 Blue 7
9 AM Tue 57 60 SW 21 7829 6717 3413 Blue 12
10 AM Tue 61 65 SW 21 9962 8437 5133 White 17
11 AM Tue 64 70 SW 21 11004 10594 7290 White 22
12 Noon Tue 66 72 SW 20 11417 11015 7711 White 24
1 PM Tue 68 74 W 18 11827 11827 8523 White 26
2 PM Tue 69 74 W 18 11827 11827 8523 White 26
3 PM Tue 70 74 W 18 11827 11827 8523 White 26
4 PM Tue 70 72 W 18 11417 11015 7711 White 24
5 PM Tue 69 70 W 18 11004 10594 7290 White 22
6 PM Tue 66 66 W 15 10173 9329 6025 White 18
7 PM Tue 62 62 W 12 8609 7627 4323 Blue 14
8 PM Tue 59 59 W 9 7653 6248 2944 Blue 11
9 PM Tue 57 57 W 8 6790 5901 2597 Blue 9
10 PM Tue 56 56 W 8 6263 5551 2247 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 55 55 W 9 6117 5196 1892 Blue 7
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 W 8 5579 5071 1767 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 52 52 W 7 5221 5033 1729 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 50 50 W 6 5073 4974 1670 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 49 49 W 6 5035 4974 1670 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 48 48 W 6 4997 4974 1670 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 47 47 W 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 47 W 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 W 6 5035 4974 1670 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 51 51 W 6 5124 4995 1691 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 55 56 W 5 6263 5551 2247 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 58 60 W 5 7829 6717 3413 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 62 64 W 6 9750 7976 4672 White 16
12 Noon Wed 64 67 W 7 10381 10079 6775 White 19
1 PM Wed 66 68 W 8 10590 10251 6947 White 20
2 PM Wed 67 69 SW 9 10797 10422 7118 White 21
3 PM Wed 68 69 SW 9 10797 10422 7118 White 21
4 PM Wed 69 70 SW 9 11004 10594 7290 White 22
5 PM Wed 68 68 SW 9 10590 10251 6947 White 20
6 PM Wed 66 66 SW 9 10173 9329 6025 White 18
7 PM Wed 64 64 SW 9 9750 7976 4672 White 16
8 PM Wed 61 61 SW 9 8005 7287 3983 Blue 13
9 PM Wed 59 59 SW 9 7653 6248 2944 Blue 11
10 PM Wed 58 58 SW 9 7347 6103 2799 Blue 10
11 PM Wed 57 57 SW 9 6790 5901 2597 Blue 9
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 SW 9 6117 5196 1892 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 54 54 SW 8 5934 5119 1815 Blue 6
2 AM Thu 52 52 SW 8 5221 5033 1729 Blue 5
3 AM Thu 51 51 SW 8 5124 4995 1691 Blue 4
4 AM Thu 49 49 SW 8 5035 4974 1670 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 49 49 SW 8 5035 4974 1670 Blue 2
6 AM Thu 50 50 S 8 5073 4974 1670 Blue 3
7 AM Thu 52 52 S 8 5221 5033 1729 Blue 5
8 AM Thu 55 56 S 8 6263 5551 2247 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 59 61 S 8 8005 7287 3983 Blue 13
10 AM Thu 63 66 S 8 10173 9329 6025 White 18
11 AM Thu 67 71 S 8 11211 10797 7493 White 23
12 Noon Thu 70 74 S 7 11827 11827 8523 White 26
1 PM Thu 72 76 S 7 12236 12236 8932 White 28
2 PM Thu 73 77 S 7 12439 12439 9135 White 29
3 PM Thu 74 77 S 7 12439 12439 9135 White 29
4 PM Thu 74 76 S 7 12236 12236 8932 White 28
5 PM Thu 73 74 S 7 11827 11827 8523 White 26
6 PM Thu 71 71 SW 7 11211 10797 7493 White 23
7 PM Thu 68 68 SW 8 10590 10251 6947 White 20
8 PM Thu 65 65 SW 8 9962 8437 5133 White 17
9 PM Thu 63 63 SW 8 9537 7802 4498 White 15
10 PM Thu 61 61 SW 9 8005 7287 3983 Blue 13
11 PM Thu 60 60 SW 8 7829 6717 3413 Blue 12
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 SW 7 7347 6103 2799 Blue 10
1 AM Fri 57 57 SW 5 6790 5901 2597 Blue 9
2 AM Fri 55 55 SW 2 6117 5196 1892 Blue 7
3 AM Fri 54 54 SW 2 5934 5119 1815 Blue 6
4 AM Fri 52 52 SW 2 5221 5033 1729 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com