Detailed Predictions for: Jean Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 3304
LZ Altitude (f): 2844
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

25 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 47 47 NW 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 49 49 NW 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 47 47 N 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 52 52 N 2 3577 3577 273 White 0
9 AM Mon 59 61 N 3 5530 5530 2226 White 13
10 AM Mon 62 65 NE 3 6390 6390 3086 White 17
11 AM Mon 66 69 NE 3 7242 7242 3938 White 21
12 Noon Mon 69 73 NE 3 8090 8090 4786 White 24
1 PM Mon 70 76 E 3 8718 8718 5414 White 27
2 PM Mon 72 77 E 5 8927 8927 5623 White 28
3 PM Mon 73 77 E 5 8927 8927 5623 White 28
4 PM Mon 73 75 SE 5 8509 8509 5205 White 26
5 PM Mon 73 74 SE 5 8300 8300 4996 White 25
6 PM Mon 72 72 SE 5 7880 7880 4576 White 23
7 PM Mon 67 67 S 3 6817 6817 3513 White 19
8 PM Mon 64 64 S 3 6176 6176 2872 White 16
9 PM Mon 62 62 S 3 5746 5746 2442 White 14
10 PM Mon 60 60 SW 2 5313 5313 2009 White 12
11 PM Mon 58 58 SW 2 4881 4881 1577 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 SW 2 4665 4665 1361 White 0
1 AM Tue 55 55 SW 2 4231 4231 927 White 0
2 AM Tue 53 53 SW 2 3796 3796 492 White 0
3 AM Tue 52 52 SW 2 3577 3577 273 White 0
4 AM Tue 51 51 SW 2 3359 3359 55 White 0
5 AM Tue 52 52 SW 2 3577 3577 273 White 0
6 AM Tue 50 50 SW 2 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 51 51 SW 3 3359 3359 55 White 0
8 AM Tue 55 55 SW 3 4231 4231 927 White 0
9 AM Tue 62 62 S 5 5746 5746 2442 White 14
10 AM Tue 66 67 S 5 6817 6817 3513 White 19
11 AM Tue 70 72 S 6 7880 7880 4576 White 23
12 Noon Tue 73 76 S 7 8718 8718 5414 White 27
1 PM Tue 75 78 S 8 9136 9136 5832 White 29
2 PM Tue 76 79 SW 8 9346 9346 6042 White 30
3 PM Tue 77 79 SW 9 9346 9346 6042 White 30
4 PM Tue 77 78 SW 10 9136 9136 5832 White 29
5 PM Tue 76 76 SW 10 8718 8718 5414 White 27
6 PM Tue 73 73 SW 10 8090 8090 4786 White 24
7 PM Tue 69 69 SW 9 7242 7242 3938 White 21
8 PM Tue 65 65 SW 8 6390 6390 3086 White 17
9 PM Tue 62 62 SW 8 5746 5746 2442 White 14
10 PM Tue 59 59 SW 7 5097 5097 1793 White 11
11 PM Tue 58 58 SW 7 4881 4881 1577 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 SW 7 4448 4448 1144 White 0
1 AM Wed 55 55 SW 8 4231 4231 927 White 0
2 AM Wed 53 53 SW 9 3796 3796 492 White 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 SW 10 3577 3577 273 White 0
4 AM Wed 52 52 SW 12 3577 3577 273 White 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 SW 13 3359 3359 55 White 0
6 AM Wed 51 51 SW 14 3359 3359 55 White 0
7 AM Wed 52 52 SW 15 3577 3577 273 White 0
8 AM Wed 54 54 SW 16 4013 4013 709 White 0
9 AM Wed 59 59 SW 18 5097 5097 1793 White 11
10 AM Wed 64 65 SW 20 6390 6390 3086 White 17
11 AM Wed 69 71 SW 21 7668 7668 4364 White 22
12 Noon Wed 73 76 SW 22 8718 8718 5414 White 27
1 PM Wed 74 77 SW 24 8927 8927 5623 White 28
2 PM Wed 75 78 SW 25 9136 9136 5832 White 29
3 PM Wed 75 78 SW 28 9136 9136 5832 White 29
4 PM Wed 74 76 SW 28 8718 8718 5414 White 27
5 PM Wed 73 74 SW 29 8300 8300 4996 White 25
6 PM Wed 71 71 SW 29 7668 7668 4364 White 22
7 PM Wed 68 68 SW 29 7030 7030 3726 White 20
8 PM Wed 65 65 SW 28 6390 6390 3086 White 17
9 PM Wed 62 62 SW 26 5746 5746 2442 White 14
10 PM Wed 59 59 W 25 5097 5097 1793 White 11
11 PM Wed 57 57 W 24 4665 4665 1361 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 W 23 4231 4231 927 White 0
1 AM Thu 54 54 SW 21 4013 4013 709 White 0
2 AM Thu 52 52 SW 20 3577 3577 273 White 0
3 AM Thu 51 51 SW 17 3359 3359 55 White 0
4 AM Thu 49 49 SW 16 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 SW 15 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 50 50 SW 14 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 51 51 SW 14 3359 3359 55 White 0
8 AM Thu 53 53 SW 13 3796 3796 492 White 0
9 AM Thu 56 57 SW 12 4665 4665 1361 White 0
10 AM Thu 60 62 W 10 5746 5746 2442 White 14
11 AM Thu 63 66 W 10 6604 6604 3300 White 18
12 Noon Thu 65 69 W 12 7242 7242 3938 White 21
1 PM Thu 67 71 W 13 7668 7668 4364 White 22
2 PM Thu 68 71 W 15 7668 7668 4364 White 22
3 PM Thu 69 72 W 16 7880 7880 4576 White 23
4 PM Thu 69 70 W 17 7455 7455 4151 White 22
5 PM Thu 68 68 W 17 7030 7030 3726 White 20
6 PM Thu 66 66 W 17 6604 6604 3300 White 18
7 PM Thu 63 63 W 17 5961 5961 2657 White 15
8 PM Thu 60 60 W 17 5313 5313 2009 White 12
9 PM Thu 58 58 W 17 4881 4881 1577 White 0
10 PM Thu 56 56 W 16 4448 4448 1144 White 0
11 PM Thu 54 54 W 15 4013 4013 709 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 W 12 3577 3577 273 White 0
1 AM Fri 50 50 W 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 49 49 W 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 NW 8 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 47 47 NW 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 47 47 NW 12 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 47 47 NW 13 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 49 49 N 14 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 51 51 N 14 3359 3359 55 White 0
9 AM Fri 54 56 N 14 4448 4448 1144 White 0
10 AM Fri 58 61 N 13 5530 5530 2226 White 13
11 AM Fri 62 67 N 12 6817 6817 3513 White 19
12 Noon Fri 64 70 N 10 7455 7455 4151 White 22
1 PM Fri 66 72 N 9 7880 7880 4576 White 23
2 PM Fri 67 72 N 9 7880 7880 4576 White 23
3 PM Fri 68 72 N 9 7880 7880 4576 White 23
4 PM Fri 68 70 N 10 7455 7455 4151 White 22
5 PM Fri 67 68 N 10 7030 7030 3726 White 20
6 PM Fri 65 65 N 9 6390 6390 3086 White 17
7 PM Fri 63 63 N 9 5961 5961 2657 White 15
8 PM Fri 60 60 N 8 5313 5313 2009 White 12
9 PM Fri 58 58 N 8 4881 4881 1577 White 0
10 PM Fri 56 56 N 8 4448 4448 1144 White 0
11 PM Fri 54 54 N 8 4013 4013 709 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 N 8 3577 3577 273 White 0
1 AM Sat 51 51 N 9 3359 3359 55 White 0
2 AM Sat 50 50 N 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 49 49 N 9 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 48 48 N 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 48 48 N 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 48 48 N 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 N 10 3166 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 51 51 N 10 3359 3359 55 White 0
9 AM Sat 54 56 N 10 4448 4448 1144 White 0
10 AM Sat 58 61 N 12 5530 5530 2226 White 13
11 AM Sat 62 66 NE 12 6604 6604 3300 White 18
12 Noon Sat 65 70 NE 12 7455 7455 4151 White 22
1 PM Sat 67 72 N 12 7880 7880 4576 White 23
2 PM Sat 68 73 N 12 8090 8090 4786 White 24
3 PM Sat 69 73 N 10 8090 8090 4786 White 24
4 PM Sat 69 71 N 10 7668 7668 4364 White 22
5 PM Sat 68 69 N 9 7242 7242 3938 White 21
6 PM Sat 66 66 N 8 6604 6604 3300 White 18
7 PM Sat 64 64 N 8 6176 6176 2872 White 16
8 PM Sat 61 61 N 7 5530 5530 2226 White 13
9 PM Sat 59 59 N 7 5097 5097 1793 White 11
10 PM Sat 57 57 N 7 4665 4665 1361 White 0
11 PM Sat 55 55 N 7 4231 4231 927 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 N 7 3796 3796 492 White 0
1 AM Sun 52 52 NW 7 3577 3577 273 White 0
2 AM Sun 51 51 NW 7 3359 3359 55 White 0
3 AM Sun 50 50 NW 7 3166 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 49 49 N 7 3166 3304 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com