Detailed Predictions for: Jean Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 3304
LZ Altitude (f): 2844
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

21 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 73 73 SW 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 74 74 SW 7 4998 4974 1670 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 72 72 SW 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 80 81 W 6 5666 5219 1915 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 86 88 W 5 7505 7127 3823 Blue 14
10 AM Wed 92 96 NW 3 12901 8467 5163 Blue 22
11 AM Wed 95 101 NW 2 16629 15403 12099 Blue 27
12 Noon Wed 98 105 NW 2 17187 16739 13435 Blue 31
1 PM Wed 102 110 W 3 18315 17306 14002 Blue 36
2 PM Wed 103 110 SW 5 18315 17306 14002 Blue 36
3 PM Wed 103 109 SW 7 17983 17228 13924 Blue 35
4 PM Wed 104 108 SW 9 17646 17150 13846 Blue 34
5 PM Wed 102 104 SW 12 17109 16555 13251 Blue 30
6 PM Wed 100 100 SW 12 16465 13402 10098 Blue 26
7 PM Wed 97 97 SW 12 13637 9024 5720 Blue 23
8 PM Wed 92 92 SW 10 8033 7609 4305 Blue 18
9 PM Wed 89 89 SW 9 7626 7248 3944 Blue 15
10 PM Wed 85 85 SW 8 7142 6282 2978 Blue 11
11 PM Wed 83 83 SW 8 6748 5331 2027 Blue 9
12 Midnight Thu 81 81 SW 9 5666 5219 1915 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 79 79 SW 9 5279 5107 1803 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 78 78 SW 10 5223 5051 1747 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 77 77 SW 10 5167 4994 1690 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 74 74 SW 9 4998 4974 1670 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 73 73 SW 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 73 73 SW 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 74 74 SW 9 4998 4974 1670 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 81 82 SW 9 6348 5275 1971 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 87 89 SW 9 7626 7248 3944 Blue 15
10 AM Thu 92 96 SW 10 12901 8467 5163 Blue 22
11 AM Thu 96 102 SW 12 16883 16011 12707 Blue 28
12 Noon Thu 99 106 SW 13 17266 16993 13689 Blue 32
1 PM Thu 101 107 SW 14 17344 17072 13768 Blue 33
2 PM Thu 102 108 SW 15 17646 17150 13846 Blue 34
3 PM Thu 102 106 SW 15 17266 16993 13689 Blue 32
4 PM Thu 101 103 SW 15 17030 16329 13025 Blue 29
5 PM Thu 99 100 SW 14 16465 13402 10098 Blue 26
6 PM Thu 95 95 SW 12 9921 7970 4666 Blue 21
7 PM Thu 92 92 SW 9 8033 7609 4305 Blue 18
8 PM Thu 88 88 SW 8 7505 7127 3823 Blue 14
9 PM Thu 85 85 SW 9 7142 6282 2978 Blue 11
10 PM Thu 83 83 S 10 6748 5331 2027 Blue 9
11 PM Thu 82 82 S 12 6348 5275 1971 Blue 8
12 Midnight Fri 80 80 S 10 5335 5163 1859 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 78 78 SW 9 5223 5051 1747 Blue 4
2 AM Fri 76 76 SW 8 5111 4974 1670 Blue 2
3 AM Fri 74 74 SW 8 4998 4974 1670 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 72 72 S 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 71 71 S 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 72 72 S 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 75 75 S 7 5054 4974 1670 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 80 81 S 7 5666 5219 1915 Blue 7
9 AM Fri 84 86 S 8 7263 6725 3421 Blue 12
10 AM Fri 88 92 S 9 8033 7609 4305 Blue 18
11 AM Fri 92 98 S 10 15719 9847 6543 Blue 24
12 Noon Fri 95 102 S 12 16883 16011 12707 Blue 28
1 PM Fri 97 105 S 13 17187 16739 13435 Blue 31
2 PM Fri 98 105 S 13 17187 16739 13435 Blue 31
3 PM Fri 98 103 S 13 17030 16329 13025 Blue 29
4 PM Fri 98 101 S 13 16629 15403 12099 Blue 27
5 PM Fri 97 99 S 12 16150 12300 8996 Blue 25
6 PM Fri 94 94 S 10 9212 7850 4546 Blue 20
7 PM Fri 91 91 S 10 7868 7489 4185 Blue 17
8 PM Fri 88 88 S 9 7505 7127 3823 Blue 14
9 PM Fri 85 85 S 8 7142 6282 2978 Blue 11
10 PM Fri 83 83 S 8 6748 5331 2027 Blue 9
11 PM Fri 81 81 S 8 5666 5219 1915 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sat 79 79 S 8 5279 5107 1803 Blue 5
1 AM Sat 78 78 S 9 5223 5051 1747 Blue 4
2 AM Sat 76 76 S 9 5111 4974 1670 Blue 2
3 AM Sat 74 74 SW 9 4998 4974 1670 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 72 72 SW 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 71 71 SW 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 72 72 SW 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 76 76 SW 8 5111 4974 1670 Blue 2
8 AM Sat 80 81 SW 8 5666 5219 1915 Blue 7
9 AM Sat 84 86 SW 8 7263 6725 3421 Blue 12
10 AM Sat 88 92 S 9 8033 7609 4305 Blue 18
11 AM Sat 91 97 S 9 13637 9024 5720 Blue 23
12 Noon Sat 94 101 S 10 16629 15403 12099 Blue 27
1 PM Sat 96 104 SW 10 17109 16555 13251 Blue 30
2 PM Sat 98 105 SW 12 17187 16739 13435 Blue 31
3 PM Sat 99 105 SW 12 17187 16739 13435 Blue 31
4 PM Sat 99 103 SW 12 17030 16329 13025 Blue 29
5 PM Sat 98 100 SW 12 16465 13402 10098 Blue 26
6 PM Sat 95 95 SW 10 9921 7970 4666 Blue 21
7 PM Sat 92 92 SW 10 8033 7609 4305 Blue 18
8 PM Sat 89 89 SW 9 7626 7248 3944 Blue 15
9 PM Sat 86 86 SW 9 7263 6725 3421 Blue 12
10 PM Sat 84 84 SW 9 6953 5612 2308 Blue 10
11 PM Sat 82 82 S 9 6348 5275 1971 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sun 81 81 SW 9 5666 5219 1915 Blue 7
1 AM Sun 79 79 SW 10 5279 5107 1803 Blue 5
2 AM Sun 77 77 SW 10 5167 4994 1690 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 75 75 SW 10 5054 4974 1670 Blue 1
4 AM Sun 73 73 SW 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 73 73 SW 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 74 74 SW 9 4998 4974 1670 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 77 77 SW 10 5167 4994 1690 Blue 3
8 AM Sun 81 82 SW 10 6348 5275 1971 Blue 8
9 AM Sun 86 88 SW 10 7505 7127 3823 Blue 14
10 AM Sun 90 94 SW 9 9212 7850 4546 Blue 20
11 AM Sun 94 99 SW 9 16150 12300 8996 Blue 25
12 Noon Sun 97 103 SW 9 17030 16329 13025 Blue 29
1 PM Sun 98 104 SW 10 17109 16555 13251 Blue 30
2 PM Sun 100 106 SW 10 17266 16993 13689 Blue 32
3 PM Sun 101 106 SW 10 17266 16993 13689 Blue 32
4 PM Sun 101 104 SW 12 17109 16555 13251 Blue 30
5 PM Sun 100 101 SW 12 16629 15403 12099 Blue 27
6 PM Sun 97 97 SW 12 13637 9024 5720 Blue 23
7 PM Sun 94 94 SW 10 9212 7850 4546 Blue 20
8 PM Sun 90 90 SW 10 7747 7368 4064 Blue 16
9 PM Sun 87 87 SW 10 7384 6929 3625 Blue 13
10 PM Sun 85 85 SW 10 7142 6282 2978 Blue 11
11 PM Sun 84 84 SW 10 6953 5612 2308 Blue 10
12 Midnight Mon 82 82 SW 10 6348 5275 1971 Blue 8
1 AM Mon 80 80 SW 12 5335 5163 1859 Blue 6
2 AM Mon 78 78 SW 12 5223 5051 1747 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 76 76 SW 12 5111 4974 1670 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 75 75 SW 10 5054 4974 1670 Blue 1
5 AM Mon 74 74 SW 9 4998 4974 1670 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 75 75 SW 9 5054 4974 1670 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 77 77 SW 8 5167 4994 1690 Blue 3
8 AM Mon 81 81 SW 8 5666 5219 1915 Blue 7
9 AM Mon 85 86 SW 7 7263 6725 3421 Blue 12
10 AM Mon 90 92 SW 6 8033 7609 4305 Blue 18
11 AM Mon 94 97 SW 6 13637 9024 5720 Blue 23
12 Noon Mon 97 100 SW 6 16465 13402 10098 Blue 26
1 PM Mon 99 103 SW 7 17030 16329 13025 Blue 29
2 PM Mon 101 105 SW 8 17187 16739 13435 Blue 31
3 PM Mon 102 105 SW 8 17187 16739 13435 Blue 31
4 PM Mon 102 104 SW 9 17109 16555 13251 Blue 30
5 PM Mon 101 102 SW 9 16883 16011 12707 Blue 28
6 PM Mon 98 98 SW 9 15719 9847 6543 Blue 24
7 PM Mon 94 94 SW 9 9212 7850 4546 Blue 20
8 PM Mon 91 91 SW 9 7868 7489 4185 Blue 17
9 PM Mon 88 88 SW 9 7505 7127 3823 Blue 14
10 PM Mon 86 86 SW 8 7263 6725 3421 Blue 12
11 PM Mon 84 84 SW 8 6953 5612 2308 Blue 10
12 Midnight Tue 82 82 SW 8 6348 5275 1971 Blue 8
1 AM Tue 80 80 SW 9 5335 5163 1859 Blue 6
2 AM Tue 78 78 SW 9 5223 5051 1747 Blue 4
3 AM Tue 77 77 SW 9 5167 4994 1690 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 75 75 SW 9 5054 4974 1670 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com