Detailed Predictions for: Jean Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.8093, -115.2139, 3304
LZ Altitude (f): 2844
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

28 OCT 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 NNW 2 4 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 57 NNE 2 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 57 NNE 4 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 56 NNE 4 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 55 NNE 4 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 NNE 3 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 NNE 3 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 54 NNE 3 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 57 NE 4 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 63 64 NE 5 6 3291 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 66 68 NE 7 8 3357 3357 53 White 0
11 AM Thu 71 74 NE 9 10 4655 4655 1351 White 0
12 Noon Thu 73 77 NE 11 13 5301 5301 1997 White 8
1 PM Thu 75 79 NE 12 14 5732 5732 2428 White 10
2 PM Thu 76 79 NE 13 15 5732 5732 2428 White 10
3 PM Thu 77 79 NE 13 15 5732 5732 2428 White 10
4 PM Thu 77 78 NE 13 15 5516 5516 2212 White 9
5 PM Thu 75 75 NE 11 13 4870 4870 1566 White 0
6 PM Thu 69 69 ENE 5 8 3574 3574 270 White 0
7 PM Thu 67 67 ENE 2 4 3291 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 63 63 NNE 1 2 3291 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 62 62 N 2 4 0 3304 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 62 62 NNE 3 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 61 61 NNE 3 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 NNE 3 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 59 59 NNE 3 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 59 NNE 3 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 58 NNE 3 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 58 NNE 3 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 57 57 NE 3 7 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 56 NNE 3 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 55 NE 3 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 59 59 NE 2 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 66 67 NE 2 3 3291 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 69 71 NE 3 3 4008 4008 704 White 0
11 AM Fri 73 76 NE 4 4 5085 5085 1781 White 5
12 Noon Fri 75 79 NE 3 4 5732 5732 2428 White 10
1 PM Fri 77 81 ENE 2 3 6160 6160 2856 White 12
2 PM Fri 78 81 ENE 1 1 6160 6160 2856 White 12
3 PM Fri 79 81 ESE 0 0 6160 6160 2856 White 12
4 PM Fri 79 80 NNW 0 0 5946 5946 2642 White 11
5 PM Fri 78 78 NE 1 1 5516 5516 2212 White 9
6 PM Fri 73 73 ENE 3 5 4440 4440 1136 White 0
7 PM Fri 68 68 ENE 2 4 3357 3357 53 White 0
8 PM Fri 66 66 ESE 2 4 3291 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Fri 64 64 SSE 2 4 3291 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Fri 63 63 S 2 5 3291 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Fri 63 63 SSW 3 6 3291 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 62 62 SSW 3 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 62 62 SSW 4 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 61 61 SW 4 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 61 61 SSW 5 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 60 60 SSW 5 11 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 59 59 SSW 5 11 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 59 59 SSW 5 11 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 58 SSW 5 12 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 61 61 SSW 5 11 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 68 69 SW 5 6 3574 3574 270 White 0
10 AM Sat 72 74 SW 6 6 4655 4655 1351 White 0
11 AM Sat 76 79 SW 7 8 5732 5732 2428 White 10
12 Noon Sat 77 81 WSW 9 10 6160 6160 2856 White 12
1 PM Sat 80 83 WSW 11 13 6587 6587 3283 White 14
2 PM Sat 80 83 WSW 14 16 6587 6587 3283 White 14
3 PM Sat 77 77 WSW 15 18 5301 5301 1997 White 8
4 PM Sat 76 76 WSW 16 18 5085 5085 1781 White 5
5 PM Sat 75 75 WSW 14 16 4870 4870 1566 White 0
6 PM Sat 70 70 WSW 11 17 3791 3791 487 White 0
7 PM Sat 68 68 SW 8 15 3357 3357 53 White 0
8 PM Sat 66 66 SW 7 13 3291 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 66 66 SW 7 13 3291 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 66 66 SW 7 13 3291 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 65 65 SW 7 13 3291 3304 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com