Detailed Predictions for: Jean Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 3304
LZ Altitude (f): 2844
Sounding

Station:

 KREV

Date/Time:

 4 FEB 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
4 AM Sat 37 37 E 3 3165 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 37 37 E 3 3165 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 37 37 E 3 3165 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 37 37 NE 3 3165 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 40 40 NE 3 3165 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 46 47 NE 3 3165 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 48 50 N 13 3165 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 50 52 N 13 3165 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Sat 52 55 N 13 3165 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Sat 54 56 NE 15 3165 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Sat 54 56 NE 15 3165 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Sat 53 54 NE 15 3165 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Sat 51 51 N 14 3165 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Sat 49 49 N 14 3165 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 46 46 N 14 3165 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 44 44 N 10 3165 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 44 44 N 10 3165 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 42 42 N 10 3165 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 43 43 N 9 3165 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 43 43 N 9 3165 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 N 9 3165 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 39 39 N 9 3165 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 39 39 N 9 3165 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 38 38 N 9 3165 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 38 38 NE 5 3165 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 38 38 NE 5 3165 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 38 38 NE 5 3165 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 37 37 NE 6 3165 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 41 41 NE 6 3165 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 48 49 NE 6 3165 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 49 50 N 14 3165 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 52 54 N 14 3165 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 54 56 N 14 3165 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 56 58 N 15 3165 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 56 57 N 15 3165 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Sun 55 55 N 15 3165 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Sun 53 53 NE 10 3165 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Sun 51 51 NE 10 3165 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Sun 47 47 NE 10 3165 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Sun 45 45 NE 10 3165 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 45 45 NE 10 3165 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 43 43 NE 10 3165 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 43 43 SE 7 3165 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 43 43 SE 7 3165 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 SE 7 3165 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 40 40 SE 7 3165 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 39 39 SE 7 3165 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 38 38 SE 7 3165 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 38 38 SE 5 3165 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 38 38 SE 5 3165 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 38 38 SE 5 3165 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 37 37 SE 5 3165 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 41 41 SE 5 3165 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 48 49 SE 5 3165 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 49 50 N 7 3165 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 52 54 N 7 3165 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 54 56 N 7 3165 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Mon 56 58 N 7 3165 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Mon 56 57 N 7 3165 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Mon 55 55 N 7 3165 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Mon 53 53 NE 8 3165 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Mon 51 51 NE 8 3165 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 48 48 NE 8 3165 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 46 46 NE 8 3165 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 45 45 NE 8 3165 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 44 44 NE 8 3165 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 44 44 N 7 3165 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 44 44 N 7 3165 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 43 43 N 7 3165 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 41 41 N 7 3165 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 40 40 N 7 3165 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 39 39 N 7 3165 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 39 39 N 7 3165 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 39 39 N 7 3165 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 39 39 N 7 3165 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 39 39 N 7 3165 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 42 42 N 7 3165 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 49 49 N 7 3165 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 50 51 NE 6 3165 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 52 53 NE 6 3165 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 54 55 NE 6 3165 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 56 57 NE 6 3165 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 57 58 NE 6 3165 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Tue 55 55 NE 6 3165 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 54 54 E 5 3165 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 52 52 E 5 3165 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 48 48 E 5 3165 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Tue 46 46 E 5 3165 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Tue 46 46 E 5 3165 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 44 44 E 5 3165 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 45 45 NE 3 3165 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 45 45 NE 3 3165 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 43 43 NE 3 3165 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 41 41 NE 3 3165 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 41 41 NE 3 3165 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 40 40 NE 3 3165 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 39 39 N 7 3165 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 39 39 N 7 3165 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 39 39 N 7 3165 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 39 39 N 7 3165 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 42 42 N 7 3165 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 49 49 N 7 3165 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 51 52 N 10 3165 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 53 54 N 10 3165 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 55 56 N 10 3165 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 57 58 N 10 3165 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 58 58 N 10 3165 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 56 56 N 10 3165 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 55 55 N 13 3165 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 53 53 N 13 3165 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 49 49 N 13 3165 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 47 47 N 13 3165 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 47 47 N 13 3165 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 45 45 N 13 3165 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 46 46 N 9 3165 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 46 46 N 9 3165 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 44 44 N 9 3165 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 42 42 N 9 3165 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 42 42 N 9 3165 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 41 41 N 9 3165 3304 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 40 40 N 9 3165 3304 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 40 40 N 9 3165 3304 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 41 41 N 9 3165 3304 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 N 9 3165 3304 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 44 44 N 9 3165 3304 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 51 52 N 9 3165 3304 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 53 55 N 9 3165 3304 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 56 58 N 9 3165 3304 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 58 60 N 9 3165 3304 0 White 0
1 PM Thu 60 62 N 9 3165 3304 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 61 62 N 9 3165 3304 0 White 0
3 PM Thu 59 59 N 9 3165 3304 0 White 0
4 PM Thu 57 57 NE 9 3165 3304 0 White 0
5 PM Thu 55 55 NE 9 3165 3304 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 51 51 NE 9 3165 3304 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 49 49 NE 9 3165 3304 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 48 48 NE 9 3165 3304 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 47 47 NE 9 3165 3304 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 47 47 N 6 3165 3304 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 47 47 N 6 3165 3304 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 45 45 N 6 3165 3304 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 N 6 3165 3304 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 43 43 N 6 3165 3304 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 42 42 N 6 3165 3304 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com