Detailed Predictions for: Jean Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 3304
LZ Altitude (f): 2844
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

26 OCT 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 39 39 N 25 6016 5039 1735 White 4
6 AM Mon 36 36 N 26 5044 4974 1670 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 32 32 N 26 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 34 34 N 26 0 3304 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 38 39 N 26 6016 5039 1735 White 4
10 AM Mon 41 43 N 28 6875 6875 3571 White 8
11 AM Mon 43 46 N 28 7509 7509 4205 White 11
12 Noon Mon 46 49 N 28 8141 8067 4763 White 14
1 PM Mon 49 52 N 26 8771 8710 5406 White 16
2 PM Mon 51 54 N 25 8984 8815 5511 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 52 54 N 24 8984 8815 5511 Blue 18
4 PM Mon 52 53 N 23 8931 8763 5459 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 52 52 NE 21 8771 8710 5406 White 16
6 PM Mon 50 50 N 17 8351 8351 5047 White 14
7 PM Mon 48 48 N 13 7931 7931 4627 White 13
8 PM Mon 46 46 N 10 7509 7509 4205 White 11
9 PM Mon 43 43 N 10 6875 6875 3571 White 8
10 PM Mon 42 42 NE 10 6662 6299 2995 White 7
11 PM Mon 41 41 NE 9 6446 5274 1970 White 6
12 Midnight Tue 40 40 NE 9 6231 5132 1828 White 5
1 AM Tue 39 39 N 8 6016 5039 1735 White 4
2 AM Tue 40 40 N 8 6231 5132 1828 White 5
3 AM Tue 39 39 N 8 6016 5039 1735 White 4
4 AM Tue 40 40 N 9 6231 5132 1828 White 5
5 AM Tue 42 42 N 9 6662 6299 2995 White 7
6 AM Tue 39 39 N 9 6016 5039 1735 White 4
7 AM Tue 37 37 N 9 5138 4974 1670 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 42 42 N 9 6662 6299 2995 White 7
9 AM Tue 46 47 N 10 7721 7721 4417 White 12
10 AM Tue 51 53 N 13 8931 8763 5459 Blue 17
11 AM Tue 54 57 N 14 9554 8974 5670 Blue 21
12 Noon Tue 56 59 N 15 10188 9210 5906 Blue 23
1 PM Tue 58 61 N 15 10666 9800 6496 White 25
2 PM Tue 60 63 N 14 11078 10425 7121 White 27
3 PM Tue 61 63 N 13 11078 10425 7121 White 27
4 PM Tue 61 62 NE 10 10872 10113 6809 White 26
5 PM Tue 60 60 NE 8 10459 9485 6181 White 24
6 PM Tue 57 57 N 7 9554 8974 5670 Blue 21
7 PM Tue 53 53 N 5 8931 8763 5459 Blue 17
8 PM Tue 50 50 NW 3 8351 8351 5047 White 14
9 PM Tue 47 47 NW 3 7721 7721 4417 White 12
10 PM Tue 45 45 NW 5 7298 7298 3994 White 10
11 PM Tue 44 44 NW 5 7086 7086 3782 White 9
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 NW 5 6662 6299 2995 White 7
1 AM Wed 41 41 NW 5 6446 5274 1970 White 6
2 AM Wed 40 40 NW 5 6231 5132 1828 White 5
3 AM Wed 39 39 NW 5 6016 5039 1735 White 4
4 AM Wed 38 38 NW 3 5285 4974 1670 Blue 3
5 AM Wed 38 38 NW 3 5285 4974 1670 Blue 3
6 AM Wed 37 37 NW 5 5138 4974 1670 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 37 37 NW 5 5138 4974 1670 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 40 40 NW 6 6231 5132 1828 White 5
9 AM Wed 45 46 NW 6 7509 7509 4205 White 11
10 AM Wed 52 54 N 7 8984 8815 5511 Blue 18
11 AM Wed 59 62 N 7 10872 10113 6809 White 26
12 Noon Wed 63 66 N 7 11694 11345 8041 White 30
1 PM Wed 65 68 N 7 12100 11841 8537 White 32
2 PM Wed 67 70 N 6 12506 12223 8919 White 34
3 PM Wed 68 70 N 6 12506 12223 8919 White 34
4 PM Wed 68 69 NE 5 12303 12032 8728 White 33
5 PM Wed 67 67 NE 5 11898 11646 8342 White 31
6 PM Wed 64 64 N 5 11284 10734 7430 White 28
7 PM Wed 60 60 W 3 10459 9485 6181 White 24
8 PM Wed 55 55 SW 3 9102 8868 5564 Blue 19
9 PM Wed 52 52 SW 3 8771 8710 5406 White 16
10 PM Wed 50 50 W 3 8351 8351 5047 White 14
11 PM Wed 48 48 W 3 7931 7931 4627 White 13
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 W 3 7509 7509 4205 White 11
1 AM Thu 44 44 W 3 7086 7086 3782 White 9
2 AM Thu 43 43 W 3 6875 6875 3571 White 8
3 AM Thu 42 42 W 3 6662 6299 2995 White 7
4 AM Thu 41 41 W 3 6446 5274 1970 White 6
5 AM Thu 40 40 W 3 6231 5132 1828 White 5
6 AM Thu 39 39 NW 3 6016 5039 1735 White 4
7 AM Thu 40 40 NW 3 6231 5132 1828 White 5
8 AM Thu 43 43 NW 3 6875 6875 3571 White 8
9 AM Thu 50 51 N 5 8561 8561 5257 White 15
10 AM Thu 58 60 N 6 10459 9485 6181 White 24
11 AM Thu 65 68 NE 6 12100 11841 8537 White 32
12 Noon Thu 69 72 NE 7 12909 12603 9299 White 36
1 PM Thu 71 74 NE 7 13313 12981 9677 White 38
2 PM Thu 71 74 NE 7 13313 12981 9677 White 38
3 PM Thu 72 74 NE 7 13313 12981 9677 White 38
4 PM Thu 72 73 NE 6 13111 12792 9488 White 37
5 PM Thu 70 70 NE 5 12506 12223 8919 White 34
6 PM Thu 66 66 N 3 11694 11345 8041 White 30
7 PM Thu 62 62 W 3 10872 10113 6809 White 26
8 PM Thu 57 57 SW 3 9554 8974 5670 Blue 21
9 PM Thu 53 53 SW 3 8931 8763 5459 Blue 17
10 PM Thu 51 51 SW 3 8561 8561 5257 White 15
11 PM Thu 49 49 SW 3 8141 8067 4763 White 14
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 SW 3 7931 7931 4627 White 13
1 AM Fri 46 46 SW 3 7509 7509 4205 White 11
2 AM Fri 45 45 SW 3 7298 7298 3994 White 10
3 AM Fri 44 44 W 3 7086 7086 3782 White 9
4 AM Fri 43 43 W 3 6875 6875 3571 White 8
5 AM Fri 42 42 W 3 6662 6299 2995 White 7
6 AM Fri 41 41 W 3 6446 5274 1970 White 6
7 AM Fri 41 41 NW 3 6446 5274 1970 White 6
8 AM Fri 44 44 NW 3 7086 7086 3782 White 9
9 AM Fri 51 51 N 3 8561 8561 5257 White 15
10 AM Fri 59 60 NE 5 10459 9485 6181 White 24
11 AM Fri 67 69 NE 6 12303 12032 8728 White 33
12 Noon Fri 71 74 NE 6 13313 12981 9677 White 38
1 PM Fri 73 76 NE 7 13712 13357 10053 White 40
2 PM Fri 73 75 NE 7 13514 13169 9865 White 39
3 PM Fri 74 75 E 7 13514 13169 9865 White 39
4 PM Fri 74 74 E 6 13313 12981 9677 White 38
5 PM Fri 72 72 E 6 12909 12603 9299 White 36
6 PM Fri 69 69 SE 5 12303 12032 8728 White 33
7 PM Fri 64 64 S 5 11284 10734 7430 White 28
8 PM Fri 60 60 SW 3 10459 9485 6181 White 24
9 PM Fri 56 56 SW 3 9238 8921 5617 Blue 20
10 PM Fri 54 54 SW 3 8984 8815 5511 Blue 18
11 PM Fri 52 52 SW 3 8771 8710 5406 White 16
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 SW 5 8351 8351 5047 White 14
1 AM Sat 49 49 SW 5 8141 8067 4763 White 14
2 AM Sat 48 48 SW 5 7931 7931 4627 White 13
3 AM Sat 47 47 SW 5 7721 7721 4417 White 12
4 AM Sat 46 46 SW 5 7509 7509 4205 White 11
5 AM Sat 45 45 SW 3 7298 7298 3994 White 10
6 AM Sat 44 44 SW 3 7086 7086 3782 White 9
7 AM Sat 44 44 W 3 7086 7086 3782 White 9
8 AM Sat 47 47 W 3 7721 7721 4417 White 12
9 AM Sat 53 53 NW 5 8931 8763 5459 Blue 17
10 AM Sat 61 62 N 5 10872 10113 6809 White 26
11 AM Sat 68 70 NE 6 12506 12223 8919 White 34
12 Noon Sat 72 74 NE 6 13313 12981 9677 White 38
1 PM Sat 74 77 NE 7 13912 13740 10436 White 41
2 PM Sat 75 77 NE 7 13912 13740 10436 White 41
3 PM Sat 75 76 NE 7 13712 13357 10053 White 40
4 PM Sat 74 74 N 7 13313 12981 9677 White 38
5 PM Sat 73 73 N 6 13111 12792 9488 White 37
6 PM Sat 69 69 N 5 12303 12032 8728 White 33
7 PM Sat 65 65 NW 3 11489 11041 7737 White 29
8 PM Sat 61 61 W 3 10666 9800 6496 White 25
9 PM Sat 57 57 W 3 9554 8974 5670 Blue 21
10 PM Sat 54 54 W 3 8984 8815 5511 Blue 18
11 PM Sat 51 51 W 3 8561 8561 5257 White 15
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 W 3 8351 8351 5047 White 14
1 AM Sun 50 50 W 3 8351 8351 5047 White 14
2 AM Sun 49 49 W 3 8141 8067 4763 White 14
3 AM Sun 48 48 W 3 7931 7931 4627 White 13
4 AM Sun 47 47 NW 3 7721 7721 4417 White 12

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com