Detailed Predictions for: Goodsprings
Launch Altitude (f): 6168
LZ Altitude (f): 4652
Sounding

Station:

 KREV

Date/Time:

 4 FEB 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
4 AM Sat 34 34 NE 14 7500 6168 0 Blue 3
5 AM Sat 32 32 NE 14 6697 6168 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sat 34 34 NE 14 7500 6168 0 Blue 3
7 AM Sat 34 34 NE 15 7500 6168 0 Blue 3
8 AM Sat 40 40 NE 15 8823 8394 2226 Blue 9
9 AM Sat 43 44 NE 15 9414 8915 2747 Blue 13
10 AM Sat 42 44 NE 16 9414 8915 2747 Blue 13
11 AM Sat 42 44 NE 16 9414 8915 2747 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 43 46 NE 16 9843 9168 3000 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 43 45 NE 16 9631 9020 2852 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 42 44 NE 16 9414 8915 2747 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 42 43 NE 16 9196 8811 2643 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 42 42 NE 16 9033 8674 2506 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 37 37 NE 16 8408 7476 1308 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 33 33 NE 16 7149 6168 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 32 32 NE 15 6697 6168 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 36 36 NE 15 8192 7128 960 Blue 5
9 PM Sat 36 36 NE 15 8192 7128 960 Blue 5
10 PM Sat 36 36 NE 17 8192 7128 960 Blue 5
11 PM Sat 37 37 NE 17 8408 7476 1308 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sun 36 36 NE 17 8192 7128 960 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 35 35 NE 17 7848 6670 502 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 37 37 NE 17 8408 7476 1308 Blue 6
3 AM Sun 36 36 NE 17 8192 7128 960 Blue 5
4 AM Sun 35 35 NE 16 7848 6670 502 Blue 4
5 AM Sun 33 33 NE 16 7149 6168 0 Blue 2
6 AM Sun 34 34 NE 16 7500 6168 0 Blue 3
7 AM Sun 35 35 NE 16 7848 6670 502 Blue 4
8 AM Sun 41 41 NE 16 8928 8534 2366 Blue 10
9 AM Sun 44 45 NE 16 9631 9020 2852 Blue 14
10 AM Sun 43 44 NE 17 9414 8915 2747 Blue 13
11 AM Sun 44 46 NE 17 9843 9168 3000 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 45 47 NE 17 9988 9384 3216 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 45 47 NE 15 9988 9384 3216 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 43 44 NE 15 9414 8915 2747 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 44 44 NE 15 9414 8915 2747 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 44 44 NE 12 9414 8915 2747 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 37 37 NE 12 8408 7476 1308 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 33 33 NE 12 7149 6168 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 32 32 NE 12 6697 6168 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 37 37 NE 12 8408 7476 1308 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 36 36 NE 12 8192 7128 960 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 36 36 NE 6 8192 7128 960 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 37 37 NE 6 8408 7476 1308 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 36 36 NE 6 8192 7128 960 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 36 36 NE 6 8192 7128 960 Blue 5
2 AM Mon 37 37 NE 6 8408 7476 1308 Blue 6
3 AM Mon 36 36 NE 6 8192 7128 960 Blue 5
4 AM Mon 35 35 E 5 7848 6670 502 Blue 4
5 AM Mon 33 33 E 5 7149 6168 0 Blue 2
6 AM Mon 35 35 E 5 7848 6670 502 Blue 4
7 AM Mon 35 35 E 5 7848 6670 502 Blue 4
8 AM Mon 42 42 E 5 9033 8674 2506 Blue 11
9 AM Mon 46 47 E 5 9988 9384 3216 Blue 16
10 AM Mon 45 46 NE 6 9843 9168 3000 Blue 15
11 AM Mon 46 48 NE 6 10104 9600 3432 Blue 17
12 Noon Mon 46 48 NE 6 10104 9600 3432 Blue 17
1 PM Mon 46 48 NE 6 10104 9600 3432 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 45 46 NE 6 9843 9168 3000 Blue 15
3 PM Mon 45 45 NE 6 9631 9020 2852 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 45 45 NE 5 9631 9020 2852 Blue 14
5 PM Mon 38 38 NE 5 8549 7820 1652 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 34 34 NE 5 7500 6168 0 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 32 32 NE 5 6697 6168 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 37 37 NE 5 8408 7476 1308 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 36 36 NE 5 8192 7128 960 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 36 36 NE 10 8192 7128 960 Blue 5
11 PM Mon 37 37 NE 10 8408 7476 1308 Blue 6
12 Midnight Tue 36 36 NE 10 8192 7128 960 Blue 5
1 AM Tue 36 36 NE 10 8192 7128 960 Blue 5
2 AM Tue 38 38 NE 10 8549 7820 1652 Blue 7
3 AM Tue 36 36 NE 10 8192 7128 960 Blue 5
4 AM Tue 36 36 E 7 8192 7128 960 Blue 5
5 AM Tue 33 33 E 7 7149 6168 0 Blue 2
6 AM Tue 35 35 E 7 7848 6670 502 Blue 4
7 AM Tue 35 35 E 7 7848 6670 502 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 42 42 E 7 9033 8674 2506 Blue 11
9 AM Tue 46 46 E 7 9843 9168 3000 Blue 15
10 AM Tue 45 46 E 7 9843 9168 3000 Blue 15
11 AM Tue 45 46 E 7 9843 9168 3000 Blue 15
12 Noon Tue 46 47 E 7 9988 9384 3216 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 46 47 E 7 9988 9384 3216 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 45 46 E 7 9843 9168 3000 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 45 45 E 7 9631 9020 2852 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 45 45 SE 5 9631 9020 2852 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 38 38 SE 5 8549 7820 1652 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 34 34 SE 5 7500 6168 0 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 32 32 SE 5 6697 6168 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 37 37 SE 5 8408 7476 1308 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 37 37 SE 5 8408 7476 1308 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 36 36 E 5 8192 7128 960 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 37 37 E 5 8408 7476 1308 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 36 36 E 5 8192 7128 960 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 36 36 E 5 8192 7128 960 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 38 38 E 5 8549 7820 1652 Blue 7
3 AM Wed 36 36 E 5 8192 7128 960 Blue 5
4 AM Wed 36 36 NE 8 8192 7128 960 Blue 5
5 AM Wed 33 33 NE 8 7149 6168 0 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 35 35 NE 8 7848 6670 502 Blue 4
7 AM Wed 36 36 NE 8 8192 7128 960 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 43 43 NE 8 9196 8811 2643 Blue 12
9 AM Wed 46 46 NE 8 9843 9168 3000 Blue 15
10 AM Wed 45 46 NE 10 9843 9168 3000 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 46 47 NE 10 9988 9384 3216 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 47 48 NE 10 10104 9600 3432 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 46 47 NE 10 9988 9384 3216 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 45 46 NE 10 9843 9168 3000 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 46 46 NE 10 9843 9168 3000 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 45 45 NE 12 9631 9020 2852 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 40 40 NE 12 8823 8394 2226 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 36 36 NE 12 8192 7128 960 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 35 35 NE 12 7848 6670 502 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 40 40 NE 12 8823 8394 2226 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 40 40 NE 12 8823 8394 2226 Blue 9
10 PM Wed 39 39 NE 12 8689 8160 1992 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 40 40 NE 12 8823 8394 2226 Blue 9
12 Midnight Thu 39 39 NE 12 8689 8160 1992 Blue 8
1 AM Thu 39 39 NE 12 8689 8160 1992 Blue 8
2 AM Thu 41 41 NE 12 8928 8534 2366 Blue 10
3 AM Thu 39 39 NE 12 8689 8160 1992 Blue 8
4 AM Thu 39 39 NE 9 8689 8160 1992 Blue 8
5 AM Thu 36 36 NE 9 8192 7128 960 Blue 5
6 AM Thu 38 38 NE 9 8549 7820 1652 Blue 7
7 AM Thu 38 38 NE 9 8549 7820 1652 Blue 7
8 AM Thu 46 46 NE 9 9843 9168 3000 Blue 15
9 AM Thu 50 51 NE 9 10384 10088 3920 Blue 20
10 AM Thu 48 49 NE 9 10204 9815 3647 Blue 18
11 AM Thu 49 51 NE 9 10384 10088 3920 Blue 20
12 Noon Thu 50 52 NE 9 10465 10188 4020 Blue 21
1 PM Thu 50 52 NE 9 10465 10188 4020 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 49 50 NE 9 10303 9966 3798 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 49 49 NE 9 10204 9815 3647 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 49 49 N 9 10204 9815 3647 Blue 18
5 PM Thu 42 42 N 9 9033 8674 2506 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 38 38 N 9 8549 7820 1652 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 36 36 N 9 8192 7128 960 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 41 41 N 9 8928 8534 2366 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 41 41 N 9 8928 8534 2366 Blue 10
10 PM Thu 40 40 NE 7 8823 8394 2226 Blue 9
11 PM Thu 42 42 NE 7 9033 8674 2506 Blue 11
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 NE 7 8928 8534 2366 Blue 10
1 AM Fri 40 40 NE 7 8823 8394 2226 Blue 9
2 AM Fri 42 42 NE 7 9033 8674 2506 Blue 11
3 AM Fri 41 41 NE 7 8928 8534 2366 Blue 10

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com