Detailed Predictions for: Goodsprings
Launch Altitude (f): 6168
LZ Altitude (f): 4652
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

26 OCT 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 34 34 N 36 8074 7612 1444 Blue 6
6 AM Mon 34 34 N 37 8074 7612 1444 Blue 6
7 AM Mon 32 32 N 37 7832 7158 990 Blue 4
8 AM Mon 33 33 N 37 7952 7385 1217 Blue 5
9 AM Mon 34 35 N 36 8413 7822 1654 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 36 38 N 33 8773 8379 2211 Blue 10
11 AM Mon 38 41 N 31 8935 8767 2599 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 41 44 N 29 9286 8929 2761 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 42 45 NE 26 9618 8983 2815 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 43 46 NE 24 9947 9102 2934 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 43 45 NE 23 9618 8983 2815 Blue 17
4 PM Mon 43 44 NE 23 9286 8929 2761 Blue 16
5 PM Mon 42 42 NE 22 8990 8821 2653 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 39 39 NE 21 8827 8659 2491 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 38 38 NE 20 8773 8379 2211 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 37 37 NE 18 8719 8061 1893 Blue 9
9 PM Mon 37 37 NE 17 8719 8061 1893 Blue 9
10 PM Mon 38 38 N 15 8773 8379 2211 Blue 10
11 PM Mon 38 38 N 15 8773 8379 2211 Blue 10
12 Midnight Tue 38 38 N 15 8773 8379 2211 Blue 10
1 AM Tue 38 38 NE 15 8773 8379 2211 Blue 10
2 AM Tue 39 39 NE 15 8827 8659 2491 Blue 11
3 AM Tue 39 39 N 16 8827 8659 2491 Blue 11
4 AM Tue 39 39 N 17 8827 8659 2491 Blue 11
5 AM Tue 41 41 N 16 8935 8767 2599 Blue 13
6 AM Tue 38 38 N 15 8773 8379 2211 Blue 10
7 AM Tue 39 39 NE 14 8827 8659 2491 Blue 11
8 AM Tue 41 41 NE 13 8935 8767 2599 Blue 13
9 AM Tue 44 45 NE 13 9618 8983 2815 Blue 17
10 AM Tue 46 48 NE 13 10599 9571 3403 Blue 20
11 AM Tue 48 51 NE 13 11556 10542 4374 Blue 23
12 Noon Tue 50 53 NE 13 11991 11177 5009 Blue 25
1 PM Tue 52 55 NE 12 12386 11749 5581 Blue 27
2 PM Tue 53 56 NE 12 12584 11946 5778 Blue 28
3 PM Tue 53 55 NE 10 12386 11749 5581 Blue 27
4 PM Tue 52 53 NE 9 11991 11177 5009 Blue 25
5 PM Tue 50 50 NE 8 11240 10219 4051 Blue 22
6 PM Tue 48 48 NE 8 10599 9571 3403 Blue 20
7 PM Tue 45 45 N 8 9618 8983 2815 Blue 17
8 PM Tue 43 43 N 8 9120 8875 2707 Blue 15
9 PM Tue 43 43 N 8 9120 8875 2707 Blue 15
10 PM Tue 43 43 N 8 9120 8875 2707 Blue 15
11 PM Tue 43 43 N 8 9120 8875 2707 Blue 15
12 Midnight Wed 43 43 N 7 9120 8875 2707 Blue 15
1 AM Wed 43 43 N 7 9120 8875 2707 Blue 15
2 AM Wed 43 43 N 7 9120 8875 2707 Blue 15
3 AM Wed 43 43 N 7 9120 8875 2707 Blue 15
4 AM Wed 42 42 N 7 8990 8821 2653 Blue 14
5 AM Wed 42 42 N 7 8990 8821 2653 Blue 14
6 AM Wed 42 42 N 7 8990 8821 2653 Blue 14
7 AM Wed 43 43 NE 8 9120 8875 2707 Blue 15
8 AM Wed 44 44 NE 8 9286 8929 2761 Blue 16
9 AM Wed 48 49 NE 7 10921 9896 3728 Blue 21
10 AM Wed 51 53 NE 7 11991 11177 5009 Blue 25
11 AM Wed 55 58 NE 7 12976 12339 6171 Blue 30
12 Noon Wed 58 61 N 7 13782 12925 6757 Blue 33
1 PM Wed 60 63 NW 8 14581 13313 7145 Blue 35
2 PM Wed 61 64 W 8 14854 13664 7496 Blue 36
3 PM Wed 61 63 W 7 14581 13313 7145 Blue 35
4 PM Wed 60 61 SW 7 13782 12925 6757 Blue 33
5 PM Wed 57 57 SW 6 12780 12143 5975 Blue 29
6 PM Wed 54 54 SW 6 12189 11490 5322 Blue 26
7 PM Wed 51 51 W 7 11556 10542 4374 Blue 23
8 PM Wed 49 49 W 7 10921 9896 3728 Blue 21
9 PM Wed 48 48 W 7 10599 9571 3403 Blue 20
10 PM Wed 47 47 NW 7 10273 9242 3074 Blue 19
11 PM Wed 47 47 N 7 10273 9242 3074 Blue 19
12 Midnight Thu 47 47 N 7 10273 9242 3074 Blue 19
1 AM Thu 47 47 E 6 10273 9242 3074 Blue 19
2 AM Thu 46 46 E 6 9947 9102 2934 Blue 18
3 AM Thu 46 46 E 6 9947 9102 2934 Blue 18
4 AM Thu 46 46 NE 6 9947 9102 2934 Blue 18
5 AM Thu 46 46 NE 6 9947 9102 2934 Blue 18
6 AM Thu 46 46 NE 7 9947 9102 2934 Blue 18
7 AM Thu 47 47 NE 7 10273 9242 3074 Blue 19
8 AM Thu 48 48 NE 7 10599 9571 3403 Blue 20
9 AM Thu 52 53 NE 7 11991 11177 5009 Blue 25
10 AM Thu 56 58 NE 6 12976 12339 6171 Blue 30
11 AM Thu 60 63 E 6 14581 13313 7145 Blue 35
12 Noon Thu 62 65 E 7 15095 14063 7895 Blue 37
1 PM Thu 63 66 E 7 15335 14455 8287 Blue 38
2 PM Thu 64 67 E 8 15796 14774 8606 Blue 39
3 PM Thu 64 66 E 8 15335 14455 8287 Blue 38
4 PM Thu 63 64 E 7 14854 13664 7496 Blue 36
5 PM Thu 61 61 E 7 13782 12925 6757 Blue 33
6 PM Thu 57 57 E 6 12780 12143 5975 Blue 29
7 PM Thu 53 53 NE 6 11991 11177 5009 Blue 25
8 PM Thu 49 49 NE 5 10921 9896 3728 Blue 21
9 PM Thu 48 48 NE 5 10599 9571 3403 Blue 20
10 PM Thu 48 48 NE 5 10599 9571 3403 Blue 20
11 PM Thu 48 48 NE 5 10599 9571 3403 Blue 20
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 NE 5 10921 9896 3728 Blue 21
1 AM Fri 49 49 NE 5 10921 9896 3728 Blue 21
2 AM Fri 48 48 NE 5 10599 9571 3403 Blue 20
3 AM Fri 48 48 NE 5 10599 9571 3403 Blue 20
4 AM Fri 48 48 NE 6 10599 9571 3403 Blue 20
5 AM Fri 47 47 NE 6 10273 9242 3074 Blue 19
6 AM Fri 47 47 NE 6 10273 9242 3074 Blue 19
7 AM Fri 48 48 E 6 10599 9571 3403 Blue 20
8 AM Fri 50 50 E 6 11240 10219 4051 Blue 22
9 AM Fri 53 53 E 6 11991 11177 5009 Blue 25
10 AM Fri 58 59 E 6 13172 12535 6367 Blue 31
11 AM Fri 61 63 E 6 14581 13313 7145 Blue 35
12 Noon Fri 64 67 E 6 15796 14774 8606 Blue 39
1 PM Fri 65 68 SE 7 16268 15013 8845 Blue 40
2 PM Fri 65 67 SE 8 15796 14774 8606 Blue 39
3 PM Fri 65 66 SE 7 15335 14455 8287 Blue 38
4 PM Fri 64 64 SE 7 14854 13664 7496 Blue 36
5 PM Fri 62 62 SE 6 14185 13119 6951 Blue 34
6 PM Fri 58 58 E 6 12976 12339 6171 Blue 30
7 PM Fri 55 55 E 6 12386 11749 5581 Blue 27
8 PM Fri 52 52 E 6 11792 10861 4693 Blue 24
9 PM Fri 51 51 SE 6 11556 10542 4374 Blue 23
10 PM Fri 51 51 SW 6 11556 10542 4374 Blue 23
11 PM Fri 51 51 W 6 11556 10542 4374 Blue 23
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 W 5 11556 10542 4374 Blue 23
1 AM Sat 51 51 N 5 11556 10542 4374 Blue 23
2 AM Sat 51 51 N 5 11556 10542 4374 Blue 23
3 AM Sat 51 51 N 5 11556 10542 4374 Blue 23
4 AM Sat 50 50 NE 6 11240 10219 4051 Blue 22
5 AM Sat 50 50 NE 6 11240 10219 4051 Blue 22
6 AM Sat 50 50 NE 6 11240 10219 4051 Blue 22
7 AM Sat 51 51 NE 6 11556 10542 4374 Blue 23
8 AM Sat 52 52 NE 6 11792 10861 4693 Blue 24
9 AM Sat 55 55 E 6 12386 11749 5581 Blue 27
10 AM Sat 59 60 E 6 13371 12730 6562 Blue 32
11 AM Sat 62 64 E 6 14854 13664 7496 Blue 36
12 Noon Sat 64 66 SE 7 15335 14455 8287 Blue 38
1 PM Sat 65 68 SE 8 16268 15013 8845 Blue 40
2 PM Sat 65 67 SE 8 15796 14774 8606 Blue 39
3 PM Sat 65 66 S 8 15335 14455 8287 Blue 38
4 PM Sat 64 64 S 8 14854 13664 7496 Blue 36
5 PM Sat 62 62 S 7 14185 13119 6951 Blue 34
6 PM Sat 58 58 SE 7 12976 12339 6171 Blue 30
7 PM Sat 55 55 NE 6 12386 11749 5581 Blue 27
8 PM Sat 52 52 N 6 11792 10861 4693 Blue 24
9 PM Sat 51 51 N 6 11556 10542 4374 Blue 23
10 PM Sat 51 51 N 6 11556 10542 4374 Blue 23
11 PM Sat 52 52 N 6 11792 10861 4693 Blue 24
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 N 6 11792 10861 4693 Blue 24
1 AM Sun 52 52 N 6 11792 10861 4693 Blue 24
2 AM Sun 52 52 N 6 11792 10861 4693 Blue 24
3 AM Sun 52 52 N 7 11792 10861 4693 Blue 24
4 AM Sun 51 51 N 7 11556 10542 4374 Blue 23

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com