Detailed Predictions for: Goodsprings
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.8945, -115.4874, 6168
LZ Altitude (f): 4652
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

21 APR 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 68 68 SSW 12 22 17208 17208 11040 White 21
1 AM Wed 64 64 SSW 11 20 16409 14524 8356 White 17
2 AM Wed 59 59 SSW 10 17 13984 11568 5400 Blue 12
3 AM Wed 56 56 SSW 10 18 11821 9345 3177 Blue 9
4 AM Wed 54 54 SSW 10 19 9505 8673 2505 Blue 7
5 AM Wed 52 52 SSW 10 21 9084 6168 0 Blue 5
6 AM Wed 53 53 SSW 9 17 9364 8304 2136 Blue 6
7 AM Wed 55 55 SW 8 13 10535 9037 2869 Blue 8
8 AM Wed 56 57 SW 7 8 12900 9485 3317 Blue 10
9 AM Wed 59 62 SW 9 10 14943 13887 7719 Blue 15
10 AM Wed 62 67 WSW 10 12 17010 17010 10842 White 20
11 AM Wed 65 71 WSW 12 14 17800 17800 11632 White 24
12 Noon Wed 67 74 W 13 15 18425 18425 12257 White 27
1 PM Wed 70 77 W 14 16 19002 19002 12834 White 30
2 PM Wed 73 80 W 15 18 19575 19575 13407 White 33
3 PM Wed 72 77 W 15 18 19002 19002 12834 White 30
4 PM Wed 72 75 W 15 18 18617 18617 12449 White 28
5 PM Wed 72 73 W 15 18 18218 18218 12050 White 26
6 PM Wed 70 70 WSW 12 14 17603 17603 11435 White 23
7 PM Wed 68 68 WSW 8 11 17208 17208 11040 White 21
8 PM Wed 66 66 SW 4 7 16811 15148 8980 White 19
9 PM Wed 63 63 SW 4 7 15256 14207 8039 Blue 16
10 PM Wed 60 60 SSW 5 7 14307 12636 6468 Blue 13
11 PM Wed 57 57 S 5 7 12900 9485 3317 Blue 10
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 S 4 7 10535 9037 2869 Blue 8
1 AM Thu 53 53 S 4 7 9364 8304 2136 Blue 6
2 AM Thu 51 51 S 3 7 8716 6168 0 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 50 50 S 3 6 8343 6168 0 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 49 49 SSE 2 5 5971 6168 0 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 48 48 SSE 2 4 5610 6168 0 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 52 52 SSW 2 3 9084 6168 0 Blue 5
7 AM Thu 55 55 WSW 1 2 10535 9037 2869 Blue 8
8 AM Thu 59 60 WNW 1 1 14307 12636 6468 Blue 13
9 AM Thu 62 65 WNW 1 1 16610 14838 8670 White 18
10 AM Thu 64 69 NW 1 1 17405 17405 11237 White 22
11 AM Thu 67 73 NW 1 1 18218 18218 12050 White 26
12 Noon Thu 69 76 NW 3 3 18810 18810 12642 White 29
1 PM Thu 71 78 WNW 5 6 19194 19194 13026 White 31
2 PM Thu 72 79 WNW 6 8 19385 19385 13217 White 32
3 PM Thu 73 78 WNW 7 9 19194 19194 13026 White 31
4 PM Thu 73 76 WNW 8 10 18810 18810 12642 White 29
5 PM Thu 73 74 NW 9 11 18425 18425 12257 White 27
6 PM Thu 72 72 W 7 9 18005 18005 11837 White 25
7 PM Thu 70 70 SW 5 7 17603 17603 11435 White 23
8 PM Thu 68 68 S 2 6 17208 17208 11040 White 21
9 PM Thu 67 67 S 3 7 17010 17010 10842 White 20
10 PM Thu 66 66 S 4 8 16811 15148 8980 White 19
11 PM Thu 64 64 S 4 10 16409 14524 8356 White 17
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 S 4 9 14307 12636 6468 Blue 13
1 AM Fri 56 56 SSW 4 8 11821 9345 3177 Blue 9
2 AM Fri 52 52 SSW 3 7 9084 6168 0 Blue 5
3 AM Fri 51 51 SSW 3 7 8716 6168 0 Blue 4
4 AM Fri 50 50 SW 3 7 8343 6168 0 Blue 3
5 AM Fri 49 49 SW 3 8 5971 6168 0 Blue 2
6 AM Fri 53 53 SW 3 6 9364 8304 2136 Blue 6
7 AM Fri 57 57 SW 3 5 12900 9485 3317 Blue 10
8 AM Fri 61 62 SW 3 3 14943 13887 7719 Blue 15
9 AM Fri 65 68 WSW 4 4 17208 17208 11040 White 21
10 AM Fri 69 74 WSW 5 6 18425 18425 12257 White 27
11 AM Fri 72 78 WSW 6 7 19194 19194 13026 White 31
12 Noon Fri 74 81 WSW 9 10 19764 19764 13596 White 34
1 PM Fri 77 84 WSW 12 14 20328 20328 14160 White 37
2 PM Fri 79 86 WSW 15 17 20701 20701 14533 White 39
3 PM Fri 79 84 WSW 15 18 20328 20328 14160 White 37
4 PM Fri 78 81 WSW 16 18 19764 19764 13596 White 34
5 PM Fri 78 79 WSW 16 19 19385 19385 13217 White 32
6 PM Fri 77 77 SW 16 23 19002 19002 12834 White 30
7 PM Fri 76 76 SW 17 27 18810 18810 12642 White 29
8 PM Fri 75 75 SW 17 32 18617 18617 12449 White 28
9 PM Fri 73 73 SW 13 26 18218 18218 12050 White 26
10 PM Fri 71 71 SSW 10 21 17800 17800 11632 White 24
11 PM Fri 69 69 SSW 7 15 17405 17405 11237 White 22

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com