Detailed Predictions for: Goodsprings
Launch Altitude (f): 6168
LZ Altitude (f): 4652
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

25 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 43 43 NE 10 6340 6168 0 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 42 42 NE 12 5756 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 42 NE 12 5756 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 45 NE 13 6621 6168 0 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 49 51 E 13 8555 7205 1037 Blue 9
10 AM Mon 51 54 E 14 10406 8488 2320 Blue 12
11 AM Mon 53 56 E 14 11769 9707 3539 Blue 14
12 Noon Mon 56 60 E 14 13563 12528 6360 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 58 64 E 15 14764 13631 7463 Blue 22
2 PM Mon 59 64 SE 15 14764 13631 7463 Blue 22
3 PM Mon 60 64 SE 15 14764 13631 7463 Blue 22
4 PM Mon 60 62 SE 14 14064 13441 7273 Blue 20
5 PM Mon 60 61 SE 14 13658 13056 6888 Blue 19
6 PM Mon 58 58 SE 13 13171 10929 4761 Blue 16
7 PM Mon 54 54 SE 12 10406 8488 2320 Blue 12
8 PM Mon 51 51 SE 10 8555 7205 1037 Blue 9
9 PM Mon 51 51 SE 9 8555 7205 1037 Blue 9
10 PM Mon 50 50 SE 9 7883 6877 709 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 49 49 SE 8 7552 6726 558 Blue 7
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 S 8 7224 6617 449 Blue 6
1 AM Tue 48 48 S 8 7224 6617 449 Blue 6
2 AM Tue 46 46 S 9 6731 6323 155 Blue 4
3 AM Tue 46 46 SW 9 6731 6323 155 Blue 4
4 AM Tue 46 46 SW 10 6731 6323 155 Blue 4
5 AM Tue 46 46 SW 12 6731 6323 155 Blue 4
6 AM Tue 46 46 SW 13 6731 6323 155 Blue 4
7 AM Tue 46 46 SW 14 6731 6323 155 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 48 48 SW 15 7224 6617 449 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 52 52 S 16 9195 7529 1361 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 54 55 S 17 11045 9118 2950 Blue 13
11 AM Tue 57 59 S 18 13467 11547 5379 Blue 17
12 Noon Tue 60 63 S 20 14531 13536 7368 Blue 21
1 PM Tue 62 65 S 21 15546 13922 7754 White 23
2 PM Tue 63 66 SW 22 15749 14394 8226 White 24
3 PM Tue 63 65 SW 22 15546 13922 7754 White 23
4 PM Tue 63 64 SW 23 14764 13631 7463 Blue 22
5 PM Tue 62 62 SW 23 14064 13441 7273 Blue 20
6 PM Tue 59 59 SW 23 13467 11547 5379 Blue 17
7 PM Tue 57 57 SW 23 12756 10298 4130 Blue 15
8 PM Tue 54 54 SW 22 10406 8488 2320 Blue 12
9 PM Tue 53 53 SW 22 9790 7850 1682 Blue 11
10 PM Tue 52 52 SW 21 9195 7529 1361 Blue 10
11 PM Tue 51 51 SW 20 8555 7205 1037 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 SW 18 7883 6877 709 Blue 8
1 AM Wed 49 49 SW 17 7552 6726 558 Blue 7
2 AM Wed 48 48 W 16 7224 6617 449 Blue 6
3 AM Wed 47 47 W 15 6893 6508 340 Blue 5
4 AM Wed 46 46 W 14 6731 6323 155 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 46 46 W 14 6731 6323 155 Blue 4
6 AM Wed 46 46 W 16 6731 6323 155 Blue 4
7 AM Wed 47 47 W 18 6893 6508 340 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 49 49 W 21 7552 6726 558 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 52 52 W 23 9195 7529 1361 Blue 10
10 AM Wed 55 56 SW 26 11769 9707 3539 Blue 14
11 AM Wed 57 58 SW 29 13171 10929 4761 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 59 61 SW 30 13658 13056 6888 Blue 19
1 PM Wed 60 63 SW 32 14531 13536 7368 Blue 21
2 PM Wed 60 63 SW 33 14531 13536 7368 Blue 21
3 PM Wed 61 64 SW 33 14764 13631 7463 Blue 22
4 PM Wed 61 63 SW 35 14531 13536 7368 Blue 21
5 PM Wed 60 61 SW 35 13658 13056 6888 Blue 19
6 PM Wed 59 59 SW 35 13467 11547 5379 Blue 17
7 PM Wed 56 56 SW 35 11769 9707 3539 Blue 14
8 PM Wed 54 54 SW 35 10406 8488 2320 Blue 12
9 PM Wed 52 52 SW 33 9195 7529 1361 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 50 50 W 32 7883 6877 709 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 48 48 W 31 7224 6617 449 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 47 47 W 30 6893 6508 340 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 46 46 W 28 6731 6323 155 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 44 44 W 25 6512 6168 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 43 43 W 23 6340 6168 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 42 42 W 20 5756 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 42 42 W 22 5756 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 43 43 W 20 6340 6168 0 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 44 44 W 17 6512 6168 0 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 45 45 W 15 6621 6168 0 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 47 48 W 14 7224 6617 449 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 48 50 W 13 7883 6877 709 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 50 53 W 13 9790 7850 1682 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 52 56 W 14 11769 9707 3539 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 53 57 W 15 12756 10298 4130 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 54 58 W 17 13171 10929 4761 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 55 58 W 18 13171 10929 4761 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 55 56 W 21 11769 9707 3539 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 54 54 W 22 10406 8488 2320 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 53 53 W 24 9790 7850 1682 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 51 51 W 25 8555 7205 1037 Blue 9
8 PM Thu 49 49 W 25 7552 6726 558 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 48 48 W 22 7224 6617 449 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 46 46 W 18 6731 6323 155 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 45 45 W 15 6621 6168 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 W 14 6512 6168 0 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 43 43 NW 14 6340 6168 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 42 42 NW 15 5756 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 41 41 N 15 5595 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 41 41 N 16 5595 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 41 41 N 16 5595 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 41 N 16 5595 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 42 N 16 5756 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 43 43 N 15 6340 6168 0 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 45 47 N 13 6893 6508 340 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 48 51 N 10 8555 7205 1037 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 50 55 N 8 11045 9118 2950 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 52 58 NW 8 13171 10929 4761 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 53 59 NW 9 13467 11547 5379 Blue 17
2 PM Fri 54 59 W 10 13467 11547 5379 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 55 59 W 10 13467 11547 5379 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 55 57 NW 10 12756 10298 4130 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 55 56 NW 10 11769 9707 3539 Blue 14
6 PM Fri 53 53 NW 9 9790 7850 1682 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 51 51 N 9 8555 7205 1037 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 49 49 N 9 7552 6726 558 Blue 7
9 PM Fri 48 48 N 10 7224 6617 449 Blue 6
10 PM Fri 47 47 N 13 6893 6508 340 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 46 46 N 14 6731 6323 155 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 45 45 N 15 6621 6168 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 44 44 N 15 6512 6168 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 43 43 N 16 6340 6168 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 42 42 N 17 5756 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 42 42 N 17 5756 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 N 18 5756 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 42 N 20 5756 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 43 43 NE 20 6340 6168 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sat 44 44 NE 20 6512 6168 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sat 46 48 NE 20 7224 6617 449 Blue 6
10 AM Sat 49 52 NE 18 9195 7529 1361 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 51 55 NE 17 11045 9118 2950 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 53 58 NE 16 13171 10929 4761 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 54 59 NE 14 13467 11547 5379 Blue 17
2 PM Sat 55 60 NE 13 13563 12528 6360 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 56 60 N 10 13563 12528 6360 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 56 58 NW 9 13171 10929 4761 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 56 57 NW 8 12756 10298 4130 Blue 15
6 PM Sat 55 55 NW 8 11045 9118 2950 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 53 53 N 9 9790 7850 1682 Blue 11
8 PM Sat 51 51 NE 10 8555 7205 1037 Blue 9
9 PM Sat 49 49 NE 10 7552 6726 558 Blue 7
10 PM Sat 48 48 N 10 7224 6617 449 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 47 47 N 10 6893 6508 340 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 N 10 6731 6323 155 Blue 4
1 AM Sun 46 46 N 10 6731 6323 155 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 45 45 N 10 6621 6168 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 44 44 N 12 6512 6168 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sun 43 43 N 12 6340 6168 0 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com