Detailed Predictions for: Goodsprings
Launch Altitude (f): 6168
LZ Altitude (f): 4652
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

18 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 45 45 NW 8 7232 6168 0 Blue 3
6 AM Sat 44 44 NW 7 6596 6168 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sat 48 48 N 6 7976 7197 1029 Blue 6
8 AM Sat 52 54 N 5 10652 10089 3921 Blue 12
9 AM Sat 54 57 NE 5 11585 10620 4452 White 15
10 AM Sat 56 61 SE 5 12431 12341 6173 White 19
11 AM Sat 58 63 S 6 12851 12760 6592 White 21
12 Noon Sat 60 66 S 8 13477 13383 7215 White 24
1 PM Sat 62 68 SW 10 13889 13889 7721 White 26
2 PM Sat 62 67 SW 13 13683 13683 7515 White 25
3 PM Sat 63 66 SW 15 13477 13383 7215 White 24
4 PM Sat 63 65 SW 17 13269 13176 7008 White 23
5 PM Sat 62 63 SW 18 12851 12760 6592 White 21
6 PM Sat 61 61 SW 20 12431 12341 6173 White 19
7 PM Sat 60 60 SW 21 12221 11406 5238 White 18
8 PM Sat 58 58 SW 22 11797 10838 4670 White 16
9 PM Sat 56 56 SW 22 11106 10444 4276 Blue 14
10 PM Sat 55 55 SW 23 10880 10267 4099 Blue 13
11 PM Sat 53 53 SW 23 10474 9337 3169 Blue 11
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 SW 24 10296 8391 2223 Blue 10
1 AM Sun 50 50 SW 25 9457 7781 1613 Blue 8
2 AM Sun 49 49 SW 26 8492 7600 1432 Blue 7
3 AM Sun 48 48 SW 26 7976 7197 1029 Blue 6
4 AM Sun 47 47 SW 26 7795 6571 403 Blue 5
5 AM Sun 46 46 SW 26 7613 6208 40 Blue 4
6 AM Sun 45 45 SW 26 7232 6168 0 Blue 3
7 AM Sun 45 45 SW 28 7232 6168 0 Blue 3
8 AM Sun 46 47 SW 28 7795 6571 403 Blue 5
9 AM Sun 49 51 SW 29 10117 7961 1793 Blue 9
10 AM Sun 49 52 SW 30 10296 8391 2223 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 51 56 SW 31 11106 10444 4276 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 53 59 SW 31 12009 11063 4895 White 17
1 PM Sun 53 59 SW 31 12009 11063 4895 White 17
2 PM Sun 53 58 SW 31 11797 10838 4670 White 16
3 PM Sun 54 58 SW 31 11797 10838 4670 White 16
4 PM Sun 54 57 SW 31 11585 10620 4452 White 15
5 PM Sun 53 54 SW 30 10652 10089 3921 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 52 52 SW 30 10296 8391 2223 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 49 49 W 30 8492 7600 1432 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 47 47 W 29 7795 6571 403 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 46 46 W 28 7613 6208 40 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 44 44 W 25 6596 6168 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 43 43 W 23 6211 6168 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 W 21 6061 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 41 41 W 18 5786 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 40 40 W 16 5417 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 39 39 W 15 5194 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 39 39 W 14 5194 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 39 39 W 13 5194 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 40 W 12 5417 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 41 41 W 10 5786 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 43 43 W 9 6211 6168 0 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 45 46 W 9 7613 6208 40 Blue 4
10 AM Mon 47 50 W 9 9457 7781 1613 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 50 54 W 9 10652 10089 3921 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 52 57 W 12 11585 10620 4452 White 15
1 PM Mon 54 58 W 14 11797 10838 4670 White 16
2 PM Mon 55 59 W 16 12009 11063 4895 White 17
3 PM Mon 57 60 W 17 12221 11406 5238 White 18
4 PM Mon 57 59 W 18 12009 11063 4895 White 17
5 PM Mon 57 58 W 18 11797 10838 4670 White 16
6 PM Mon 55 55 W 17 10880 10267 4099 Blue 13
7 PM Mon 53 53 W 16 10474 9337 3169 Blue 11
8 PM Mon 51 51 SW 15 10117 7961 1793 Blue 9
9 PM Mon 50 50 SW 15 9457 7781 1613 Blue 8
10 PM Mon 49 49 SW 15 8492 7600 1432 Blue 7
11 PM Mon 48 48 SW 15 7976 7197 1029 Blue 6
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 SW 15 7795 6571 403 Blue 5
1 AM Tue 46 46 SW 16 7613 6208 40 Blue 4
2 AM Tue 44 44 SW 16 6596 6168 0 Blue 2
3 AM Tue 43 43 SW 16 6211 6168 0 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 43 43 SW 16 6211 6168 0 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 43 43 SW 16 6211 6168 0 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 44 44 SW 17 6596 6168 0 Blue 2
7 AM Tue 45 45 SW 18 7232 6168 0 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 47 48 W 20 7976 7197 1029 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 49 51 W 20 10117 7961 1793 Blue 9
10 AM Tue 51 55 W 20 10880 10267 4099 Blue 13
11 AM Tue 53 58 W 20 11797 10838 4670 White 16
12 Noon Tue 54 60 W 20 12221 11406 5238 White 18
1 PM Tue 55 61 W 20 12431 12341 6173 White 19
2 PM Tue 55 60 W 20 12221 11406 5238 White 18
3 PM Tue 56 60 W 21 12221 11406 5238 White 18
4 PM Tue 56 58 W 21 11797 10838 4670 White 16
5 PM Tue 55 56 W 20 11106 10444 4276 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 53 53 W 16 10474 9337 3169 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 51 51 W 13 10117 7961 1793 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 49 49 W 9 8492 7600 1432 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 48 48 W 8 7976 7197 1029 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 47 47 W 8 7795 6571 403 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 47 47 W 9 7795 6571 403 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 W 8 7795 6571 403 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 46 46 W 7 7613 6208 40 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 45 45 W 7 7232 6168 0 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 44 44 W 7 6596 6168 0 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 43 43 W 7 6211 6168 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 43 43 W 7 6211 6168 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 44 44 W 7 6596 6168 0 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 46 46 W 8 7613 6208 40 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 48 48 W 9 7976 7197 1029 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 49 50 W 9 9457 7781 1613 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 50 51 W 8 10117 7961 1793 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 51 52 W 9 10296 8391 2223 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 52 54 W 10 10652 10089 3921 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 53 55 W 12 10880 10267 4099 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 55 56 W 13 11106 10444 4276 Blue 14
3 PM Wed 56 57 W 14 11585 10620 4452 White 15
4 PM Wed 56 56 W 14 11106 10444 4276 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 56 56 W 13 11106 10444 4276 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 55 55 W 13 10880 10267 4099 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 53 53 W 13 10474 9337 3169 Blue 11
8 PM Wed 52 52 SW 12 10296 8391 2223 Blue 10
9 PM Wed 51 51 SW 12 10117 7961 1793 Blue 9
10 PM Wed 51 51 SW 12 10117 7961 1793 Blue 9
11 PM Wed 50 50 SW 12 9457 7781 1613 Blue 8
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 SW 10 8492 7600 1432 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 48 48 SW 8 7976 7197 1029 Blue 6
2 AM Thu 47 47 SW 7 7795 6571 403 Blue 5
3 AM Thu 46 46 SW 7 7613 6208 40 Blue 4
4 AM Thu 46 46 SW 7 7613 6208 40 Blue 4
5 AM Thu 46 46 SW 7 7613 6208 40 Blue 4
6 AM Thu 48 48 SW 8 7976 7197 1029 Blue 6
7 AM Thu 49 49 S 8 8492 7600 1432 Blue 7
8 AM Thu 51 52 S 9 10296 8391 2223 Blue 10
9 AM Thu 53 55 S 9 10880 10267 4099 Blue 13
10 AM Thu 54 57 S 9 11585 10620 4452 White 15
11 AM Thu 55 59 S 9 12009 11063 4895 White 17
12 Noon Thu 57 61 S 9 12431 12341 6173 White 19
1 PM Thu 58 62 S 9 12641 12551 6383 White 20
2 PM Thu 59 62 SW 9 12641 12551 6383 White 20
3 PM Thu 60 62 SW 9 12641 12551 6383 White 20
4 PM Thu 60 61 SW 9 12431 12341 6173 White 19
5 PM Thu 59 59 SW 9 12009 11063 4895 White 17
6 PM Thu 57 57 S 9 11585 10620 4452 White 15
7 PM Thu 55 55 S 9 10880 10267 4099 Blue 13
8 PM Thu 53 53 S 9 10474 9337 3169 Blue 11
9 PM Thu 52 52 S 9 10296 8391 2223 Blue 10
10 PM Thu 52 52 S 9 10296 8391 2223 Blue 10
11 PM Thu 51 51 S 9 10117 7961 1793 Blue 9
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 S 7 9457 7781 1613 Blue 8
1 AM Fri 49 49 SW 6 8492 7600 1432 Blue 7
2 AM Fri 48 48 SW 5 7976 7197 1029 Blue 6
3 AM Fri 47 47 SW 3 7795 6571 403 Blue 5
4 AM Fri 47 47 SW 5 7795 6571 403 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com