Detailed Predictions for: Goodsprings
Launch Altitude (f): 6168
LZ Altitude (f): 4652
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

21 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 71 71 NW 10 6879 6168 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 69 69 NW 8 6054 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 69 69 NW 6 6054 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 75 76 NW 5 7600 7220 1052 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 80 82 W 6 9921 7963 1795 Blue 12
10 AM Wed 82 86 SW 8 16252 12670 6502 Blue 16
11 AM Wed 84 90 SW 10 17065 16461 10293 Blue 20
12 Noon Wed 87 94 SW 12 17496 17114 10946 Blue 24
1 PM Wed 89 97 SW 12 18536 17355 11187 Blue 27
2 PM Wed 90 97 SW 13 18536 17355 11187 Blue 27
3 PM Wed 91 97 SW 14 18536 17355 11187 Blue 27
4 PM Wed 90 94 SW 15 17496 17114 10946 Blue 24
5 PM Wed 90 92 SW 16 17226 16890 10722 Blue 22
6 PM Wed 88 88 SW 15 16691 15663 9495 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 84 84 W 13 13760 9043 2875 Blue 14
8 PM Wed 79 79 W 12 7972 7591 1423 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 78 78 W 12 7848 7467 1299 Blue 8
10 PM Wed 77 77 W 12 7724 7343 1175 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 76 76 W 12 7600 7220 1052 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 75 75 W 12 7475 7079 911 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 74 74 W 12 7351 6869 701 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 73 73 W 12 7227 6659 491 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 73 73 W 10 7227 6659 491 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 72 72 W 10 7090 6168 0 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 71 71 W 9 6879 6168 0 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 70 70 W 9 6667 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 72 72 W 9 7090 6168 0 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 77 78 W 10 7848 7467 1299 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 80 82 SW 13 9921 7963 1795 Blue 12
10 AM Thu 81 85 SW 15 15918 9872 3704 Blue 15
11 AM Thu 84 90 S 18 17065 16461 10293 Blue 20
12 Noon Thu 86 92 SW 21 17226 16890 10722 Blue 22
1 PM Thu 87 93 SW 21 17307 17034 10866 Blue 23
2 PM Thu 88 93 SW 21 17307 17034 10866 Blue 23
3 PM Thu 88 92 SW 21 17226 16890 10722 Blue 22
4 PM Thu 88 91 SW 21 17146 16628 10460 Blue 21
5 PM Thu 87 88 SW 20 16691 15663 9495 Blue 18
6 PM Thu 83 83 SW 16 13020 8460 2292 Blue 13
7 PM Thu 80 80 W 13 8489 7715 1547 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 76 76 W 10 7600 7220 1052 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 74 74 W 9 7351 6869 701 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 73 73 W 10 7227 6659 491 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 72 72 SW 10 7090 6168 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 72 72 W 10 7090 6168 0 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 71 71 W 9 6879 6168 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 70 70 W 9 6667 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 69 69 W 8 6054 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 68 68 W 7 5367 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 68 68 W 7 5367 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 69 69 SW 7 6054 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 71 71 S 7 6879 6168 0 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 73 74 S 8 7351 6869 701 Blue 4
9 AM Fri 76 78 S 9 7848 7467 1299 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 78 82 S 12 9921 7963 1795 Blue 12
11 AM Fri 81 86 S 14 16252 12670 6502 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 83 90 S 15 17065 16461 10293 Blue 20
1 PM Fri 85 92 S 16 17226 16890 10722 Blue 22
2 PM Fri 86 93 S 17 17307 17034 10866 Blue 23
3 PM Fri 87 92 S 17 17226 16890 10722 Blue 22
4 PM Fri 87 91 SW 17 17146 16628 10460 Blue 21
5 PM Fri 85 87 SW 16 16523 13570 7402 Blue 17
6 PM Fri 82 82 SW 14 9921 7963 1795 Blue 12
7 PM Fri 78 78 SW 13 7848 7467 1299 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 75 75 SW 10 7475 7079 911 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 73 73 SW 9 7227 6659 491 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 72 72 S 8 7090 6168 0 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 72 72 S 8 7090 6168 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 71 71 SW 7 6879 6168 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 70 70 SW 7 6667 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 69 69 W 7 6054 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 69 69 W 7 6054 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 68 68 W 8 5367 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 68 68 W 8 5367 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 69 69 W 8 6054 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 71 71 W 9 6879 6168 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sat 74 75 SW 9 7475 7079 911 Blue 5
9 AM Sat 76 78 SW 10 7848 7467 1299 Blue 8
10 AM Sat 78 82 SW 12 9921 7963 1795 Blue 12
11 AM Sat 80 86 SW 13 16252 12670 6502 Blue 16
12 Noon Sat 82 89 SW 14 16985 16134 9966 Blue 19
1 PM Sat 84 92 SW 15 17226 16890 10722 Blue 22
2 PM Sat 86 93 SW 16 17307 17034 10866 Blue 23
3 PM Sat 87 93 SW 17 17307 17034 10866 Blue 23
4 PM Sat 87 91 SW 17 17146 16628 10460 Blue 21
5 PM Sat 86 88 SW 16 16691 15663 9495 Blue 18
6 PM Sat 83 83 SW 15 13020 8460 2292 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 80 80 SW 13 8489 7715 1547 Blue 10
8 PM Sat 77 77 SW 10 7724 7343 1175 Blue 7
9 PM Sat 75 75 SW 9 7475 7079 911 Blue 5
10 PM Sat 74 74 SW 8 7351 6869 701 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 73 73 SW 8 7227 6659 491 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sun 73 73 SW 9 7227 6659 491 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 72 72 W 10 7090 6168 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 71 71 W 12 6879 6168 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 70 70 W 12 6667 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 70 70 W 12 6667 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 70 70 W 12 6667 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 72 72 W 12 7090 6168 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sun 74 74 W 10 7351 6869 701 Blue 4
8 AM Sun 76 77 SW 10 7724 7343 1175 Blue 7
9 AM Sun 79 81 SW 10 9164 7839 1671 Blue 11
10 AM Sun 81 84 SW 10 13760 9043 2875 Blue 14
11 AM Sun 83 88 SW 12 16691 15663 9495 Blue 18
12 Noon Sun 85 91 SW 13 17146 16628 10460 Blue 21
1 PM Sun 86 92 SW 14 17226 16890 10722 Blue 22
2 PM Sun 87 93 SW 15 17307 17034 10866 Blue 23
3 PM Sun 88 93 SW 15 17307 17034 10866 Blue 23
4 PM Sun 88 91 SW 15 17146 16628 10460 Blue 21
5 PM Sun 87 88 SW 15 16691 15663 9495 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 84 84 SW 14 13760 9043 2875 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 81 81 SW 13 9164 7839 1671 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 77 77 SW 12 7724 7343 1175 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 76 76 SW 12 7600 7220 1052 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 75 75 SW 12 7475 7079 911 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 74 74 SW 12 7351 6869 701 Blue 4
12 Midnight Mon 74 74 W 12 7351 6869 701 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 73 73 W 12 7227 6659 491 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 72 72 W 12 7090 6168 0 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 71 71 W 12 6879 6168 0 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 71 71 W 10 6879 6168 0 Blue 1
5 AM Mon 71 71 W 10 6879 6168 0 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 72 72 W 9 7090 6168 0 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 74 74 SW 8 7351 6869 701 Blue 4
8 AM Mon 77 77 SW 8 7724 7343 1175 Blue 7
9 AM Mon 79 80 SW 8 8489 7715 1547 Blue 10
10 AM Mon 82 84 SW 9 13760 9043 2875 Blue 14
11 AM Mon 84 87 SW 10 16523 13570 7402 Blue 17
12 Noon Mon 85 89 SW 12 16985 16134 9966 Blue 19
1 PM Mon 87 91 SW 13 17146 16628 10460 Blue 21
2 PM Mon 88 92 SW 14 17226 16890 10722 Blue 22
3 PM Mon 89 93 SW 14 17307 17034 10866 Blue 23
4 PM Mon 89 92 SW 14 17226 16890 10722 Blue 22
5 PM Mon 88 89 SW 13 16985 16134 9966 Blue 19
6 PM Mon 86 86 SW 12 16252 12670 6502 Blue 16
7 PM Mon 83 83 SW 10 13020 8460 2292 Blue 13
8 PM Mon 80 80 SW 9 8489 7715 1547 Blue 10
9 PM Mon 78 78 SW 8 7848 7467 1299 Blue 8
10 PM Mon 77 77 SW 8 7724 7343 1175 Blue 7
11 PM Mon 76 76 SW 8 7600 7220 1052 Blue 6
12 Midnight Tue 75 75 W 8 7475 7079 911 Blue 5
1 AM Tue 74 74 W 9 7351 6869 701 Blue 4
2 AM Tue 73 73 W 9 7227 6659 491 Blue 3
3 AM Tue 73 73 W 9 7227 6659 491 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 72 72 W 9 7090 6168 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com