Detailed Predictions for: Goodsprings
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.8945, -115.4874, 6168
LZ Altitude (f): 4652
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

28 OCT 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 NNE 11 17 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 52 NNE 13 20 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 51 NNE 14 21 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 52 NNE 14 23 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 51 NNE 14 23 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 51 NE 14 23 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 51 NNE 16 23 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 51 NNE 14 23 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 52 NE 14 24 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 57 NE 14 24 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 59 61 NE 13 23 9796 8052 1884 White 3
11 AM Thu 62 65 NE 12 21 10694 10097 3929 White 6
12 Noon Thu 63 66 NE 13 19 10909 10397 4229 White 7
1 PM Thu 64 68 NE 13 18 11339 10767 4599 White 9
2 PM Thu 64 67 NE 13 18 11125 10591 4423 White 8
3 PM Thu 64 66 NE 13 18 10909 10397 4229 White 7
4 PM Thu 63 64 NE 13 18 10479 9767 3599 White 5
5 PM Thu 63 63 NNE 11 17 10231 9433 3265 White 5
6 PM Thu 60 60 NNE 10 16 9477 6168 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 60 60 NNE 10 16 9477 6168 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 59 59 NNE 10 14 9136 6168 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 55 55 NNE 10 16 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 55 55 NNE 11 17 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 55 55 NNE 11 17 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 NNE 11 17 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 54 NNE 11 17 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 54 NNE 11 17 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 53 NNE 11 17 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 52 NNE 11 17 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 NNE 10 16 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 53 NNE 9 14 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 52 NNE 9 14 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 52 NNE 9 13 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 56 NE 9 13 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 59 61 NE 8 12 9796 8052 1884 White 3
11 AM Fri 63 66 ENE 8 12 10909 10397 4229 White 7
12 Noon Fri 65 69 ENE 8 11 11553 11269 5101 White 10
1 PM Fri 65 69 E 6 11 11553 11269 5101 White 10
2 PM Fri 65 68 ESE 6 10 11339 10767 4599 White 9
3 PM Fri 65 67 ESE 6 10 11125 10591 4423 White 8
4 PM Fri 65 66 SE 5 9 10909 10397 4229 White 7
5 PM Fri 64 64 SE 5 9 10479 9767 3599 White 5
6 PM Fri 63 63 ESE 5 8 10231 9433 3265 White 5
7 PM Fri 61 61 ENE 4 6 9796 8052 1884 White 3
8 PM Fri 59 59 NE 4 6 9136 6168 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 57 57 NNE 4 6 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 55 N 5 6 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 54 N 5 8 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 N 5 9 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 54 NNW 6 9 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 54 NNW 6 10 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 53 NNW 6 11 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 53 NNW 8 11 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 NNW 8 11 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 52 N 8 11 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 52 ENE 6 10 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 53 E 6 10 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 57 ESE 6 11 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 60 62 SSE 8 12 10014 9095 2927 White 4
11 AM Sat 63 66 S 9 13 10909 10397 4229 White 7
12 Noon Sat 64 67 S 10 14 11125 10591 4423 White 8
1 PM Sat 65 68 SSW 11 16 11339 10767 4599 White 9
2 PM Sat 65 67 SW 11 17 11125 10591 4423 White 8
3 PM Sat 65 66 SW 11 17 10909 10397 4229 White 7
4 PM Sat 65 65 SW 11 16 10694 10097 3929 White 6
5 PM Sat 64 64 SW 10 14 10479 9767 3599 White 5
6 PM Sat 63 63 SW 9 13 10231 9433 3265 White 5
7 PM Sat 61 61 SW 9 12 9796 8052 1884 White 3
8 PM Sat 59 59 SW 8 11 9136 6168 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 57 57 SW 8 11 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 55 55 SW 8 12 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 54 SW 8 12 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 SW 8 12 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 52 SW 8 12 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 52 SW 8 12 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 52 SW 8 12 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 51 SW 9 13 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 51 SW 9 13 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 SW 9 13 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 50 SW 9 13 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 51 SW 9 13 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 53 SW 9 14 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 56 57 SW 10 14 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 58 61 SW 10 16 9796 8052 1884 White 3
12 Noon Sun 60 63 SW 10 16 10231 9433 3265 White 5
1 PM Sun 61 64 SW 10 16 10479 9767 3599 White 5
2 PM Sun 61 63 SW 10 16 10231 9433 3265 White 5
3 PM Sun 61 63 SW 10 14 10231 9433 3265 White 5
4 PM Sun 61 62 WSW 9 14 10014 9095 2927 White 4
5 PM Sun 60 60 WSW 9 13 9477 6168 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 59 59 WSW 9 12 9136 6168 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 57 57 SW 8 11 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 55 55 SW 8 11 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 53 53 SW 8 11 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 51 51 WSW 9 12 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 50 50 WSW 9 13 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 WSW 9 14 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 49 WSW 10 14 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 49 WSW 10 14 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 49 WSW 10 14 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 49 WSW 9 13 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 49 49 WSW 9 13 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 49 WSW 9 13 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 48 WSW 9 13 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 49 49 SW 9 13 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 51 51 SW 9 13 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 54 55 SSW 9 13 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 57 58 SSW 9 13 8246 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 59 61 SSW 9 13 9796 8052 1884 White 3
1 PM Mon 60 62 SSW 9 13 10014 9095 2927 White 4
2 PM Mon 60 61 SSW 9 13 9796 8052 1884 White 3
3 PM Mon 60 61 SW 9 13 9796 8052 1884 White 3
4 PM Mon 59 59 SW 8 12 9136 6168 0 Blue 1
5 PM Mon 58 58 SW 8 12 8246 6168 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 57 57 SW 8 12 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 55 55 SW 8 11 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 54 54 SW 8 11 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 53 53 SW 8 11 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 51 51 WSW 9 12 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 50 WSW 9 13 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 WSW 9 14 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 48 48 WSW 10 14 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 47 47 WSW 10 14 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 47 47 W 10 14 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 47 W 9 13 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 W 9 13 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 47 W 9 13 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 48 WNW 8 12 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 49 49 WNW 8 12 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 52 WNW 8 12 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 54 55 WNW 8 11 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 57 59 WNW 8 11 9136 6168 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 58 60 WNW 8 11 9477 6168 0 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 59 61 W 8 12 9796 8052 1884 White 3
2 PM Tue 59 61 W 8 12 9796 8052 1884 White 3
3 PM Tue 59 60 W 8 12 9477 6168 0 Blue 2
4 PM Tue 59 59 WNW 8 11 9136 6168 0 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 58 58 WNW 8 11 8246 6168 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 57 57 WNW 8 11 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 55 55 WNW 6 10 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 53 53 WNW 6 10 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 51 51 WNW 6 10 5292 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 50 WNW 8 10 5292 6168 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com