Detailed Predictions for: Goodsprings
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.8945, -115.4874, 6168
LZ Altitude (f): 4652
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

23 JAN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Sat 36 36 WSW 24 8565 8122 1954 White 8
1 AM Sat 35 35 WSW 24 8344 7691 1523 White 7
2 AM Sat 34 34 WSW 22 8123 7195 1027 White 6
3 AM Sat 34 34 WSW 18 8123 7195 1027 White 6
4 AM Sat 33 33 WSW 16 7901 6685 517 White 5
5 AM Sat 33 33 WSW 14 7901 6685 517 White 5
6 AM Sat 33 33 W 13 7901 6685 517 White 5
7 AM Sat 32 32 W 12 7680 6168 0 White 4
8 AM Sat 33 33 WSW 10 7901 6685 517 White 5
9 AM Sat 34 34 WSW 9 8123 7195 1027 White 6
10 AM Sat 35 35 WSW 8 8344 7691 1523 White 7
11 AM Sat 37 37 WSW 8 8785 8541 2373 White 9
12 Noon Sat 38 39 SW 9 9225 9225 3057 White 11
1 PM Sat 39 40 SW 9 9444 9444 3276 White 12
2 PM Sat 39 39 SW 9 9225 9225 3057 White 11
3 PM Sat 39 39 SW 8 9225 9225 3057 White 11
4 PM Sat 38 38 SW 7 9005 8953 2785 White 10
5 PM Sat 36 36 W 7 8565 8122 1954 White 8
6 PM Sat 33 33 NNW 7 7901 6685 517 White 5
7 PM Sat 33 33 N 7 7901 6685 517 White 5
8 PM Sat 35 35 N 6 8344 7691 1523 White 7
9 PM Sat 35 35 N 6 8344 7691 1523 White 7
10 PM Sat 33 33 N 6 7901 6685 517 White 5
11 PM Sat 35 35 N 6 8344 7691 1523 White 7
12 Midnight Sun 33 33 N 6 7901 6685 517 White 5
1 AM Sun 33 33 N 6 7901 6685 517 White 5
2 AM Sun 32 32 N 6 7680 6168 0 White 4
3 AM Sun 32 32 N 6 7680 6168 0 White 4
4 AM Sun 32 32 N 6 7680 6168 0 White 4
5 AM Sun 32 32 NNW 6 7680 6168 0 White 4
6 AM Sun 31 31 NW 6 7226 6168 0 Blue 3
7 AM Sun 31 31 NW 6 7226 6168 0 Blue 3
8 AM Sun 33 33 WNW 7 7901 6685 517 White 5
9 AM Sun 35 36 W 7 8565 8122 1954 White 8
10 AM Sun 38 40 W 8 9444 9444 3276 White 12
11 AM Sun 39 41 W 9 9663 9663 3495 White 13
12 Noon Sun 40 42 W 10 9876 9876 3708 White 14
1 PM Sun 41 43 W 12 10086 10086 3918 White 15
2 PM Sun 41 42 W 12 9876 9876 3708 White 14
3 PM Sun 41 41 WSW 13 9663 9663 3495 White 13
4 PM Sun 39 39 WSW 13 9225 9225 3057 White 11
5 PM Sun 37 37 WSW 13 8785 8541 2373 White 9
6 PM Sun 35 35 WSW 12 8344 7691 1523 White 7
7 PM Sun 34 34 SW 12 8123 7195 1027 White 6
8 PM Sun 34 34 SW 12 8123 7195 1027 White 6
9 PM Sun 34 34 SW 13 8123 7195 1027 White 6
10 PM Sun 35 35 SW 14 8344 7691 1523 White 7
11 PM Sun 35 35 SW 14 8344 7691 1523 White 7
12 Midnight Mon 35 35 SSW 13 8344 7691 1523 White 7
1 AM Mon 35 35 SSW 12 8344 7691 1523 White 7
2 AM Mon 36 36 SSW 12 8565 8122 1954 White 8
3 AM Mon 36 36 S 12 8565 8122 1954 White 8
4 AM Mon 36 36 S 10 8565 8122 1954 White 8
5 AM Mon 36 36 S 10 8565 8122 1954 White 8
6 AM Mon 35 35 S 10 8344 7691 1523 White 7
7 AM Mon 35 35 S 10 8344 7691 1523 White 7
8 AM Mon 32 32 S 10 7680 6168 0 White 4
9 AM Mon 33 33 S 12 7901 6685 517 White 5
10 AM Mon 32 32 SSE 12 7680 6168 0 White 4
11 AM Mon 31 31 S 12 7226 6168 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 31 31 S 12 7226 6168 0 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 31 31 SSW 12 7226 6168 0 Blue 3
2 PM Mon 30 30 SSW 12 6707 6168 0 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 30 30 SW 10 6707 6168 0 Blue 2
4 PM Mon 30 30 SW 10 6707 6168 0 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 30 30 SW 9 6707 6168 0 Blue 2
6 PM Mon 30 30 WSW 9 6707 6168 0 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 31 31 WSW 9 7226 6168 0 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 31 31 WSW 9 7226 6168 0 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 32 32 WSW 10 7680 6168 0 White 4
10 PM Mon 32 32 WSW 10 7680 6168 0 White 4
11 PM Mon 31 31 WSW 10 7226 6168 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 31 31 WSW 10 7226 6168 0 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 31 31 WSW 9 7226 6168 0 Blue 3
2 AM Tue 31 31 WSW 10 7226 6168 0 Blue 3
3 AM Tue 31 31 W 10 7226 6168 0 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 31 31 W 10 7226 6168 0 Blue 3
5 AM Tue 30 30 W 12 6707 6168 0 Blue 2
6 AM Tue 29 29 W 12 6174 6168 0 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 29 29 W 12 6174 6168 0 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 28 28 W 13 5483 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 28 28 W 13 5483 6168 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 29 30 W 13 6707 6168 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 30 31 W 13 7226 6168 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 31 32 W 12 7680 6168 0 White 4
1 PM Tue 31 32 W 10 7680 6168 0 White 4
2 PM Tue 30 31 W 10 7226 6168 0 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 29 29 W 9 6174 6168 0 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 28 28 WSW 9 5483 6168 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 27 27 WSW 9 5161 6168 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 27 27 SW 10 5161 6168 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 27 27 SW 10 5161 6168 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 27 27 SW 10 5161 6168 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 28 28 SSW 10 5483 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 28 28 SSW 12 5483 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 29 29 S 12 6174 6168 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 29 29 S 12 6174 6168 0 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 29 29 S 12 6174 6168 0 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 30 30 S 13 6707 6168 0 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 30 30 SSE 13 6707 6168 0 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 31 31 SSE 13 7226 6168 0 Blue 3
5 AM Wed 30 30 SSE 13 6707 6168 0 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 30 30 SSE 14 6707 6168 0 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 31 31 SSE 14 7226 6168 0 Blue 3
8 AM Wed 31 31 SSE 15 7226 6168 0 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 32 32 SSE 15 7680 6168 0 White 4
10 AM Wed 33 33 SSE 15 7901 6685 517 White 5
11 AM Wed 34 34 SSE 15 8123 7195 1027 White 6
12 Noon Wed 34 34 SSE 14 8123 7195 1027 White 6
1 PM Wed 34 34 SSE 13 8123 7195 1027 White 6
2 PM Wed 34 34 SSE 13 8123 7195 1027 White 6
3 PM Wed 33 33 SSE 13 7901 6685 517 White 5
4 PM Wed 33 33 SSE 14 7901 6685 517 White 5
5 PM Wed 33 33 SSE 13 7901 6685 517 White 5
6 PM Wed 33 33 SSE 13 7901 6685 517 White 5
7 PM Wed 33 33 SSE 13 7901 6685 517 White 5
8 PM Wed 34 34 SE 13 8123 7195 1027 White 6
9 PM Wed 34 34 SE 14 8123 7195 1027 White 6
10 PM Wed 35 35 SE 14 8344 7691 1523 White 7
11 PM Wed 35 35 SE 14 8344 7691 1523 White 7
12 Midnight Thu 36 36 SE 13 8565 8122 1954 White 8
1 AM Thu 36 36 ESE 13 8565 8122 1954 White 8
2 AM Thu 36 36 ESE 13 8565 8122 1954 White 8
3 AM Thu 36 36 ESE 13 8565 8122 1954 White 8
4 AM Thu 36 36 ESE 13 8565 8122 1954 White 8
5 AM Thu 35 35 ESE 13 8344 7691 1523 White 7
6 AM Thu 34 34 ESE 13 8123 7195 1027 White 6
7 AM Thu 34 34 ESE 13 8123 7195 1027 White 6
8 AM Thu 35 35 ESE 13 8344 7691 1523 White 7
9 AM Thu 36 36 ESE 13 8565 8122 1954 White 8
10 AM Thu 37 37 ESE 13 8785 8541 2373 White 9
11 AM Thu 38 38 ESE 13 9005 8953 2785 White 10
12 Noon Thu 38 38 ESE 12 9005 8953 2785 White 10
1 PM Thu 38 38 ESE 12 9005 8953 2785 White 10
2 PM Thu 37 37 ESE 12 8785 8541 2373 White 9
3 PM Thu 36 36 ESE 12 8565 8122 1954 White 8
4 PM Thu 35 35 ESE 12 8344 7691 1523 White 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com