Detailed Predictions for: Goodsprings
Launch Altitude (f): 6168
LZ Altitude (f): 4652
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 39 39 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 39 39 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 37 37 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 37 37 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 39 39 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 40 40 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 40 40 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 45 46 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 45 46 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 46 47 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 46 46 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 46 46 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 44 44 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 41 41 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 41 41 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 41 41 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 41 41 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 41 41 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 41 41 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 41 41 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 43 43 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 43 43 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 43 43 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 43 43 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 44 44 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 43 43 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 44 44 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 44 44 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 44 44 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 44 44 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 44 44 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 46 46 SW 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 46 46 SW 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 46 46 SW 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 46 46 SW 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 46 46 SW 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 44 44 SW 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 44 44 SW 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 45 45 SW 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 46 46 SW 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 46 46 SW 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 45 45 SW 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 45 45 SW 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 44 44 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 43 43 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 42 42 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 40 40 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 39 39 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 38 38 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 37 37 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 37 37 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 39 39 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 42 42 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 44 45 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 46 48 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 47 49 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 47 49 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 46 47 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 45 45 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 44 44 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 43 43 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 41 41 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 40 40 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 39 39 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 38 38 N 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 37 37 N 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 36 36 N 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 36 36 N 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 36 36 N 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 36 36 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 36 36 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 36 36 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 35 35 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 35 35 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 36 36 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 37 37 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 39 39 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 42 43 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 44 46 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 45 47 NE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 46 47 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 46 47 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 45 45 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 44 44 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 42 42 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 41 41 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 40 40 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 39 39 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 39 39 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 39 39 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 39 39 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 39 39 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 39 39 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 39 39 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 38 38 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 38 38 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 37 37 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 37 37 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 38 38 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 40 40 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 43 43 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 46 46 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 47 48 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 48 49 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 49 49 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 49 49 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 49 49 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 48 48 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 46 46 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 44 44 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 42 42 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 41 41 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 41 41 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 40 40 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 40 40 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 40 40 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 41 41 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 41 41 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 40 40 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 39 39 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 37 37 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 37 37 NW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 38 38 NW 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 40 40 N 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 41 42 N 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 42 44 N 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 43 45 N 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 43 45 N 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 43 44 N 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 42 42 N 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 40 40 N 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 39 39 N 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 37 37 N 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 36 36 N 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 35 35 N 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 35 35 N 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 34 34 N 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 34 34 N 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 34 34 N 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 33 33 N 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 33 33 N 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 32 32 N 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com