Detailed Predictions for: Tollhouse
Launch Altitude (f): 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 4 FEB 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
4 AM Sat 41 41 NE 6 3261 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 41 41 NE 6 3261 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 41 NE 6 3261 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 42 NE 3 3261 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 44 NE 3 3790 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 47 48 NE 3 5008 4222 222 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 50 51 NW 2 5553 5001 1001 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 51 53 NW 2 5915 5363 1363 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 51 54 NW 2 6096 5543 1543 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 51 53 W 6 5915 5363 1363 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 52 54 W 6 6096 5543 1543 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 52 53 W 6 5915 5363 1363 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 52 52 W 1 5734 5182 1182 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 49 49 W 1 5190 4638 638 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 46 46 W 1 4643 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 43 43 E 2 3344 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 43 43 E 2 3344 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 43 43 E 2 3344 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 43 43 E 3 3344 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 43 43 E 3 3344 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 E 3 3261 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 E 3 3261 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 41 41 E 3 3261 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 41 41 E 3 3261 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 40 40 NE 3 3261 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 NE 3 3261 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 NE 3 3261 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 42 42 NE 2 3261 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 45 NE 2 4227 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 49 49 NE 2 5190 4638 638 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 52 53 W 2 5915 5363 1363 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 54 56 W 2 6512 5903 1903 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 55 57 W 2 6612 6082 2082 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 55 57 W 3 6612 6082 2082 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 55 56 W 3 6512 5903 1903 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 55 56 W 3 6512 5903 1903 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 54 54 W 5 6096 5543 1543 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 51 51 W 5 5553 5001 1001 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 48 48 W 5 5008 4222 222 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 46 46 NE 2 4643 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 45 45 NE 2 4227 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 45 45 NE 2 4227 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 45 45 E 1 4227 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 45 45 E 1 4227 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 E 1 4227 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 45 E 2 4227 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 44 44 E 2 3790 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 44 E 2 3790 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 44 E 2 3790 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 44 E 2 3790 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 45 E 2 4227 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 E 2 4643 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 49 49 E 2 5190 4638 638 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 52 52 E 2 5734 5182 1182 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 55 56 W 2 6512 5903 1903 Blue 10
11 AM Mon 56 57 W 2 6612 6082 2082 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 56 58 W 2 6712 6285 2285 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 56 57 W 2 6612 6082 2082 Blue 11
2 PM Mon 56 57 W 2 6612 6082 2082 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 56 56 W 2 6512 5903 1903 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 55 55 E 1 6303 5723 1723 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 53 53 E 1 5915 5363 1363 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 51 51 E 1 5553 5001 1001 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 50 50 E 1 5372 4820 820 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 50 50 E 1 5372 4820 820 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 50 50 E 1 5372 4820 820 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 51 51 E 5 5553 5001 1001 Blue 5
11 PM Mon 50 50 E 5 5372 4820 820 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 E 5 5372 4820 820 Blue 4
1 AM Tue 50 50 E 5 5372 4820 820 Blue 4
2 AM Tue 50 50 E 5 5372 4820 820 Blue 4
3 AM Tue 50 50 E 5 5372 4820 820 Blue 4
4 AM Tue 50 50 SE 6 5372 4820 820 Blue 4
5 AM Tue 50 50 SE 6 5372 4820 820 Blue 4
6 AM Tue 50 50 SE 6 5372 4820 820 Blue 4
7 AM Tue 50 50 SE 6 5372 4820 820 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 50 50 SE 6 5372 4820 820 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 47 47 SE 6 4826 4000 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 47 47 SE 9 4826 4000 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 47 47 SE 9 4826 4000 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 47 47 SE 9 4826 4000 0 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 47 47 SE 9 4826 4000 0 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 47 47 SE 9 4826 4000 0 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 47 47 SE 9 4826 4000 0 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 47 47 SE 6 4826 4000 0 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 47 47 SE 6 4826 4000 0 Blue 1
6 PM Tue 47 47 SE 6 4826 4000 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 46 46 SE 6 4643 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 46 46 SE 6 4643 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 46 46 SE 6 4643 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 45 45 NE 2 4227 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 45 45 NE 2 4227 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 45 45 NE 2 4227 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 45 45 NE 2 4227 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 44 44 NE 2 3790 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 44 NE 2 3790 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 44 N 3 3790 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 44 44 N 3 3790 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 N 3 3790 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 N 3 3790 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 45 45 N 3 4227 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 46 46 N 3 4643 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 48 49 W 3 5190 4638 638 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 48 49 W 3 5190 4638 638 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 48 50 W 3 5372 4820 820 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 48 50 W 3 5372 4820 820 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 49 50 W 3 5372 4820 820 Blue 4
3 PM Wed 49 49 W 3 5190 4638 638 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 49 49 NW 7 5190 4638 638 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 48 48 NW 7 5008 4222 222 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 46 46 NW 7 4643 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 45 45 NW 7 4227 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 44 44 NW 7 3790 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 44 44 NW 7 3790 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 44 44 NE 7 3790 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 44 44 NE 7 3790 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 43 43 NE 7 3344 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 43 43 NE 7 3344 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 43 43 NE 7 3344 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 43 43 NE 7 3344 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 43 43 NE 7 3344 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 42 42 NE 7 3261 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 42 NE 7 3261 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 43 43 NE 7 3344 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 45 45 NE 7 4227 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 49 50 NE 7 5372 4820 820 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 52 54 W 2 6096 5543 1543 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 52 54 W 2 6096 5543 1543 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 53 56 W 2 6512 5903 1903 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 53 55 W 2 6303 5723 1723 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 53 55 W 2 6303 5723 1723 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 53 54 W 2 6096 5543 1543 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 52 52 W 5 5734 5182 1182 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 50 50 W 5 5372 4820 820 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 49 49 W 5 5190 4638 638 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 47 47 W 5 4826 4000 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 47 47 W 5 4826 4000 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 47 47 W 5 4826 4000 0 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 47 47 NE 7 4826 4000 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 47 47 NE 7 4826 4000 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 47 47 NE 7 4826 4000 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 46 46 NE 7 4643 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 46 46 NE 7 4643 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 46 NE 7 4643 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com