Detailed Predictions for: Tollhouse
Launch Altitude (f): 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 10 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
7 AM Wed 34 34 E 6 5859 4000 0 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 37 37 E 6 7118 5827 1827 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 40 40 E 6 7862 7061 3061 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 40 41 NW 1 8039 7483 3483 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 41 42 NW 1 8212 7660 3660 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 41 43 NW 1 8381 7837 3837 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 41 42 W 5 8212 7660 3660 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 42 43 W 5 8381 7837 3837 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 42 42 W 5 8212 7660 3660 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 40 40 W 5 7862 7061 3061 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 39 39 W 5 7684 6540 2540 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 37 37 W 5 7118 5827 1827 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 36 36 W 2 6589 5344 1344 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 35 35 W 2 6301 5020 1020 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 34 34 W 2 5859 4000 0 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 33 33 N 8 5369 4000 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 33 33 N 8 5369 4000 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 33 33 N 8 5369 4000 0 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 32 32 E 4 5033 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 32 32 E 4 5033 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 33 33 E 4 5369 4000 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 31 31 E 4 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 32 32 E 4 5033 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 30 30 E 4 3071 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 30 30 E 4 3071 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 38 38 E 4 7506 6286 2286 Blue 6
9 AM Thu 48 49 E 4 9392 8858 4858 Blue 17
10 AM Thu 48 51 SW 4 9635 9193 5193 Blue 19
11 AM Thu 50 54 SW 4 9812 9623 5623 Blue 22
12 Noon Thu 51 56 SW 4 9921 9742 5742 Blue 24
1 PM Thu 49 53 S 3 9754 9527 5527 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 52 55 S 3 9866 9682 5682 Blue 23
3 PM Thu 53 55 S 3 9866 9682 5682 Blue 23
4 PM Thu 51 52 SW 6 9694 9360 5360 Blue 20
5 PM Thu 50 50 SW 6 9560 9026 5026 Blue 18
6 PM Thu 48 48 SW 6 9224 8691 4691 Blue 16
7 PM Thu 47 47 SW 6 9056 8523 4523 Blue 15
8 PM Thu 46 46 SW 6 8888 8355 4355 Blue 14
9 PM Thu 45 45 SW 6 8719 8187 4187 Blue 13
10 PM Thu 44 44 E 5 8550 8014 4014 Blue 12
11 PM Thu 44 44 E 5 8550 8014 4014 Blue 12
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 E 5 8550 8014 4014 Blue 12
1 AM Fri 43 43 E 5 8381 7837 3837 Blue 11
2 AM Fri 43 43 E 5 8381 7837 3837 Blue 11
3 AM Fri 44 44 E 5 8550 8014 4014 Blue 12
4 AM Fri 42 42 E 6 8212 7660 3660 Blue 10
5 AM Fri 43 43 E 6 8381 7837 3837 Blue 11
6 AM Fri 41 41 E 6 8039 7483 3483 Blue 9
7 AM Fri 41 41 E 6 8039 7483 3483 Blue 9
8 AM Fri 45 45 E 6 8719 8187 4187 Blue 13
9 AM Fri 51 51 E 6 9635 9193 5193 Blue 19
10 AM Fri 50 51 S 5 9635 9193 5193 Blue 19
11 AM Fri 51 52 S 5 9694 9360 5360 Blue 20
12 Noon Fri 52 53 S 5 9754 9527 5527 Blue 21
1 PM Fri 51 52 S 5 9694 9360 5360 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 52 53 S 5 9754 9527 5527 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 53 53 S 5 9754 9527 5527 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 51 51 S 3 9635 9193 5193 Blue 19
5 PM Fri 51 51 S 3 9635 9193 5193 Blue 19
6 PM Fri 50 50 S 3 9560 9026 5026 Blue 18
7 PM Fri 49 49 S 3 9392 8858 4858 Blue 17
8 PM Fri 48 48 S 3 9224 8691 4691 Blue 16
9 PM Fri 47 47 S 3 9056 8523 4523 Blue 15
10 PM Fri 47 47 NE 2 9056 8523 4523 Blue 15
11 PM Fri 47 47 NE 2 9056 8523 4523 Blue 15
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 NE 2 8888 8355 4355 Blue 14
1 AM Sat 46 46 NE 2 8888 8355 4355 Blue 14
2 AM Sat 45 45 NE 2 8719 8187 4187 Blue 13
3 AM Sat 46 46 NE 2 8888 8355 4355 Blue 14
4 AM Sat 45 45 N 2 8719 8187 4187 Blue 13
5 AM Sat 45 45 N 2 8719 8187 4187 Blue 13
6 AM Sat 44 44 N 2 8550 8014 4014 Blue 12
7 AM Sat 44 44 N 2 8550 8014 4014 Blue 12
8 AM Sat 47 47 N 2 9056 8523 4523 Blue 15
9 AM Sat 50 51 N 2 9635 9193 5193 Blue 19
10 AM Sat 50 51 SW 3 9635 9193 5193 Blue 19
11 AM Sat 51 53 SW 3 9754 9527 5527 Blue 21
12 Noon Sat 51 53 SW 3 9754 9527 5527 Blue 21
1 PM Sat 51 53 SW 3 9754 9527 5527 Blue 21
2 PM Sat 52 53 SW 3 9754 9527 5527 Blue 21
3 PM Sat 52 53 SW 3 9754 9527 5527 Blue 21
4 PM Sat 50 50 W 3 9560 9026 5026 Blue 18
5 PM Sat 49 49 W 3 9392 8858 4858 Blue 17
6 PM Sat 48 48 W 3 9224 8691 4691 Blue 16
7 PM Sat 47 47 W 3 9056 8523 4523 Blue 15
8 PM Sat 46 46 W 3 8888 8355 4355 Blue 14
9 PM Sat 46 46 W 3 8888 8355 4355 Blue 14
10 PM Sat 45 45 E 3 8719 8187 4187 Blue 13
11 PM Sat 45 45 E 3 8719 8187 4187 Blue 13
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 E 3 8550 8014 4014 Blue 12
1 AM Sun 44 44 E 3 8550 8014 4014 Blue 12
2 AM Sun 44 44 E 3 8550 8014 4014 Blue 12
3 AM Sun 44 44 E 3 8550 8014 4014 Blue 12
4 AM Sun 43 43 E 2 8381 7837 3837 Blue 11
5 AM Sun 43 43 E 2 8381 7837 3837 Blue 11
6 AM Sun 42 42 E 2 8212 7660 3660 Blue 10
7 AM Sun 42 42 E 2 8212 7660 3660 Blue 10
8 AM Sun 46 47 E 2 9056 8523 4523 Blue 15
9 AM Sun 52 54 E 2 9812 9623 5623 Blue 22
10 AM Sun 51 55 S 3 9866 9682 5682 Blue 23
11 AM Sun 52 57 S 3 9994 9800 5800 Blue 25
12 Noon Sun 53 58 S 3 10168 9855 5855 Blue 26
1 PM Sun 52 57 S 3 9994 9800 5800 Blue 25
2 PM Sun 53 57 S 3 9994 9800 5800 Blue 25
3 PM Sun 54 56 S 3 9921 9742 5742 Blue 24
4 PM Sun 52 53 W 3 9754 9527 5527 Blue 21
5 PM Sun 51 51 W 3 9635 9193 5193 Blue 19
6 PM Sun 50 50 W 3 9560 9026 5026 Blue 18
7 PM Sun 49 49 W 3 9392 8858 4858 Blue 17
8 PM Sun 48 48 W 3 9224 8691 4691 Blue 16
9 PM Sun 48 48 W 3 9224 8691 4691 Blue 16
10 PM Sun 47 47 E 3 9056 8523 4523 Blue 15
11 PM Sun 47 47 E 3 9056 8523 4523 Blue 15
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 E 3 8888 8355 4355 Blue 14
1 AM Mon 46 46 E 3 8888 8355 4355 Blue 14
2 AM Mon 46 46 E 3 8888 8355 4355 Blue 14
3 AM Mon 46 46 E 3 8888 8355 4355 Blue 14
4 AM Mon 45 45 SE 3 8719 8187 4187 Blue 13
5 AM Mon 45 45 SE 3 8719 8187 4187 Blue 13
6 AM Mon 44 44 SE 3 8550 8014 4014 Blue 12
7 AM Mon 44 44 SE 3 8550 8014 4014 Blue 12
8 AM Mon 49 50 SE 3 9560 9026 5026 Blue 18
9 AM Mon 54 56 SE 3 9921 9742 5742 Blue 24
10 AM Mon 54 58 SW 3 10168 9855 5855 Blue 26
11 AM Mon 55 60 SW 3 11386 9964 5964 Blue 28
12 Noon Mon 56 61 SW 3 12181 10130 6130 Blue 29
1 PM Mon 55 60 SW 3 11386 9964 5964 Blue 28
2 PM Mon 56 60 SW 3 11386 9964 5964 Blue 28
3 PM Mon 57 59 SW 3 10514 9909 5909 Blue 27
4 PM Mon 54 55 S 8 9866 9682 5682 Blue 23
5 PM Mon 53 53 S 8 9754 9527 5527 Blue 21
6 PM Mon 52 52 S 8 9694 9360 5360 Blue 20
7 PM Mon 50 50 S 8 9560 9026 5026 Blue 18
8 PM Mon 48 48 S 8 9224 8691 4691 Blue 16
9 PM Mon 48 48 S 8 9224 8691 4691 Blue 16
10 PM Mon 47 47 S 11 9056 8523 4523 Blue 15
11 PM Mon 47 47 S 11 9056 8523 4523 Blue 15
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 S 11 8888 8355 4355 Blue 14
1 AM Tue 46 46 S 11 8888 8355 4355 Blue 14
2 AM Tue 45 45 S 11 8719 8187 4187 Blue 13
3 AM Tue 46 46 S 11 8888 8355 4355 Blue 14
4 AM Tue 45 45 S 12 8719 8187 4187 Blue 13
5 AM Tue 45 45 S 12 8719 8187 4187 Blue 13
6 AM Tue 43 43 S 12 8381 7837 3837 Blue 11

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com