Detailed Predictions for: Timberline
Launch Altitude (f): 5810
LZ Altitude (f): 1840
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 4 FEB 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
4 AM Sat 37 37 E 8 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 36 36 E 8 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 35 35 E 8 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 36 36 E 8 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 38 38 E 8 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 41 41 E 8 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 44 45 E 7 5350 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 46 48 E 7 5900 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 48 50 E 7 6291 5810 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 48 50 SE 6 6291 5810 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 48 49 SE 6 6083 5810 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 47 48 SE 6 5900 5810 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 46 46 SE 5 5534 5810 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 43 43 SE 5 4982 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 41 41 SE 5 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 39 39 NE 3 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 38 38 NE 3 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 38 38 NE 3 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 38 38 E 5 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 38 38 E 5 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 37 37 E 5 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 37 37 E 5 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 37 37 E 5 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 37 37 E 5 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 36 36 E 5 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 35 35 E 5 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 35 35 E 5 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 35 35 E 3 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 38 38 E 3 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 42 42 E 3 4798 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 45 46 E 3 5534 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 48 49 E 3 6083 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 49 51 E 3 6508 5894 84 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 50 52 SE 3 6609 6075 265 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 50 51 SE 3 6508 5894 84 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 49 50 SE 3 6291 5810 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 48 48 E 3 5900 5810 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 45 45 E 3 5350 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 42 42 E 3 4798 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 40 40 E 3 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 39 39 E 3 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 38 38 E 3 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 38 38 E 6 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 38 38 E 6 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 37 37 E 6 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 37 37 E 6 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 37 37 E 6 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 36 36 E 6 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 36 36 SE 7 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 36 36 SE 7 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 36 36 SE 7 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 37 37 SE 7 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 39 39 SE 7 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 42 42 SE 7 4798 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 44 45 SE 10 5350 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 47 48 SE 10 5900 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 48 49 SE 10 6083 5810 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 49 50 SE 10 6291 5810 0 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 49 50 SE 10 6291 5810 0 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 48 48 SE 10 5900 5810 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 46 46 SE 12 5534 5810 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 43 43 SE 12 4982 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 41 41 SE 12 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 39 39 SE 12 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 38 38 SE 12 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 38 38 SE 12 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 39 39 SE 8 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 39 39 SE 8 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 38 38 SE 8 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 38 38 SE 8 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 38 38 SE 8 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 38 38 SE 8 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 38 38 SE 13 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 38 38 SE 13 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 38 38 SE 13 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 37 37 SE 13 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 37 37 SE 13 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 37 37 SE 13 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 36 36 SE 8 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 36 36 SE 8 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 35 35 SE 8 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 35 35 SE 8 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 34 34 SE 8 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 34 34 SE 8 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 33 33 S 3 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 33 33 S 3 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 33 33 S 3 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 32 32 S 3 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 32 32 S 3 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 32 32 S 3 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 31 31 NE 5 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 31 31 NE 5 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 31 31 NE 5 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 31 31 NE 5 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 32 32 NE 5 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 32 32 NE 5 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 33 33 N 3 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 32 32 N 3 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 32 32 N 3 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 32 32 N 3 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 35 35 N 3 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 39 39 N 3 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 42 43 N 3 4982 5810 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 45 46 N 3 5534 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 46 48 N 3 5900 5810 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 47 48 N 3 5900 5810 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 47 48 N 3 5900 5810 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 48 49 N 3 6083 5810 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 47 47 N 2 5717 5810 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 44 44 N 2 5166 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 42 42 N 2 4798 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 40 40 N 2 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 40 40 N 2 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 40 40 N 2 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 41 41 NE 3 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 41 41 NE 3 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 40 40 NE 3 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 40 40 NE 3 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 40 40 NE 3 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 40 40 NE 3 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 40 40 N 5 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 39 39 N 5 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 39 39 N 5 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 39 39 N 5 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 42 N 5 4798 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 46 N 5 5534 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 49 50 NE 3 6291 5810 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 52 54 NE 3 6811 6502 692 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 53 55 NE 3 6945 6603 793 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 54 56 NE 3 7089 6703 893 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 54 55 NE 3 6945 6603 793 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 53 54 NE 3 6811 6502 692 Blue 4
4 PM Thu 51 51 W 1 6508 5894 84 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 48 48 W 1 5900 5810 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 45 45 W 1 5350 5810 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 42 42 W 1 4798 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 41 41 W 1 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 42 42 W 1 4798 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 42 42 S 2 4798 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 42 42 S 2 4798 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 S 2 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 41 41 S 2 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 41 41 S 2 4633 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 41 41 S 2 4633 5810 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com