Detailed Predictions for: Timberline
Launch Altitude (f): 5810
LZ Altitude (f): 1840
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

16 AUG 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 63 63 E 8 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 63 63 E 8 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 63 63 E 8 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 65 65 SE 8 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 68 69 SE 8 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 71 74 SE 8 5704 5810 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 74 79 S 7 8951 6946 1136 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 76 82 S 7 10790 8888 3078 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 77 84 S 7 12686 9826 4016 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 78 85 S 8 13502 10589 4779 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 79 85 S 8 13502 10589 4779 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 79 83 S 8 11791 9362 3552 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 78 81 SW 6 9931 8398 2588 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 76 77 SW 6 7925 5810 0 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 72 72 SW 6 4856 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 69 69 W 3 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 67 67 W 3 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 66 66 W 3 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 66 66 N 3 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 N 3 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 65 65 N 3 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 64 64 NE 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 64 64 NE 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 64 64 NE 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 63 63 NE 3 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 63 63 NE 3 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 63 63 NE 3 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 65 65 NE 3 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 68 70 NE 3 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 72 75 NE 3 6188 5810 0 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 76 81 SE 3 9931 8398 2588 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 79 86 SE 3 14080 11582 5772 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 81 88 SE 3 14505 13282 7472 White 16
2 PM Fri 82 89 S 5 14712 13965 8155 White 17
3 PM Fri 83 89 S 5 14712 13965 8155 White 17
4 PM Fri 83 88 S 5 14505 13282 7472 White 16
5 PM Fri 82 85 SW 3 13502 10589 4779 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 79 80 SW 3 9432 7872 2062 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 75 75 SW 3 6188 5810 0 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 71 71 SW 3 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 69 69 SW 3 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 68 68 SW 3 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 67 67 E 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 67 67 E 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 66 66 E 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 66 66 E 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 65 65 E 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 65 65 E 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 64 64 NE 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 64 64 NE 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 64 64 NE 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 66 66 NE 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 70 72 NE 5 4856 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 75 78 NE 5 8459 6166 356 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 79 84 S 1 12686 9826 4016 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 81 88 S 1 14505 13282 7472 White 16
1 PM Sat 83 90 S 1 14918 14197 8387 White 18
2 PM Sat 84 91 S 1 15124 15124 9314 White 19
3 PM Sat 85 91 S 1 15124 15124 9314 White 19
4 PM Sat 85 90 S 1 14918 14197 8387 White 18
5 PM Sat 83 86 W 7 14080 11582 5772 Blue 14
6 PM Sat 80 81 W 7 9931 8398 2588 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 75 75 W 7 6188 5810 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 71 71 W 7 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 69 69 W 7 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 68 68 W 7 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 68 68 N 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 67 67 N 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 66 66 N 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 65 65 N 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 65 65 N 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 65 65 N 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 65 65 NE 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 64 64 NE 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 64 NE 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 65 65 NE 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 68 70 NE 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 71 74 NE 5 5704 5810 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 75 80 SE 5 9432 7872 2062 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 77 84 SE 5 12686 9826 4016 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 79 86 SE 5 14080 11582 5772 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 80 87 SE 5 14250 12470 6660 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 80 86 SE 5 14080 11582 5772 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 80 85 SE 5 13502 10589 4779 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 78 81 W 9 9931 8398 2588 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 76 77 W 9 7925 5810 0 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 72 72 W 9 4856 5810 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 69 69 W 9 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 67 67 W 9 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 66 66 W 9 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 65 65 W 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 65 65 W 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 64 64 W 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 63 63 W 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 63 63 W 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 63 63 W 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 62 62 E 6 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 62 62 E 6 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 62 62 E 6 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 64 64 E 6 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 67 69 E 6 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 72 75 E 6 6188 5810 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 76 81 E 7 9931 8398 2588 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 79 86 E 7 14080 11582 5772 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 80 87 E 7 14250 12470 6660 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 81 88 E 7 14505 13282 7472 White 16
3 PM Mon 82 88 E 7 14505 13282 7472 White 16
4 PM Mon 82 87 E 7 14250 12470 6660 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 81 84 SW 7 12686 9826 4016 Blue 12
6 PM Mon 78 79 SW 7 8951 6946 1136 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 75 75 SW 7 6188 5810 0 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 72 72 SW 7 4856 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 69 69 SW 7 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 68 68 SW 7 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 67 67 NW 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 66 66 NW 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 66 66 NW 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 66 66 NW 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 65 65 NW 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 65 65 NW 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 64 64 E 7 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 64 64 E 7 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 64 64 E 7 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 66 66 E 7 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 69 71 E 7 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 73 76 E 7 7055 5810 0 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 77 82 SE 6 10790 8888 3078 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 79 86 SE 6 14080 11582 5772 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 81 88 SE 6 14505 13282 7472 White 16
2 PM Tue 82 89 SE 6 14712 13965 8155 White 17
3 PM Tue 83 89 SE 6 14712 13965 8155 White 17
4 PM Tue 83 88 SE 6 14505 13282 7472 White 16
5 PM Tue 82 85 SW 6 13502 10589 4779 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 79 80 SW 6 9432 7872 2062 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 74 74 SW 6 5704 5810 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 71 71 SW 6 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 69 69 SW 6 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 68 68 SW 6 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 68 68 NE 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 67 67 NE 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 67 67 NE 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 66 66 NE 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 65 65 NE 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 65 NE 5 4734 5810 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com