Detailed Predictions for: Timberline
Launch Altitude (f): 5810
LZ Altitude (f): 1840
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

15 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 53 53 NE 21 4511 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 50 NE 21 3081 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 50 NE 21 3081 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 51 NE 17 3270 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 53 53 NE 17 4511 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 56 57 NE 17 4927 5810 0 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 59 62 NE 12 6071 5810 0 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 61 64 NE 12 6587 5810 0 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 63 67 NE 12 7230 6575 765 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 65 69 NE 9 7612 7001 1191 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 66 69 NE 9 7612 7001 1191 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 66 68 NE 9 7444 6788 978 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 64 64 NE 7 6587 5810 0 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 60 60 NE 7 5205 5810 0 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 55 55 NE 7 4849 5810 0 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 52 52 N 10 3903 5810 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 51 N 10 3270 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 51 51 N 10 3270 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 52 52 NE 10 3903 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 NE 10 3270 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 50 NE 10 3081 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 N 10 3081 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 49 N 10 3081 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 49 N 10 3081 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 50 N 9 3081 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 49 N 9 3081 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 49 N 9 3081 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 49 49 NE 10 3081 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 51 51 NE 10 3270 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 54 55 NE 10 4849 5810 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 57 60 NE 10 5205 5810 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 60 63 NE 10 6372 5810 0 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 64 68 NE 10 7444 6788 978 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 66 70 NE 8 7734 7214 1404 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 67 70 NE 8 7734 7214 1404 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 66 68 NE 8 7444 6788 978 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 64 64 NE 8 6587 5810 0 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 61 61 NE 8 5642 5810 0 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 58 58 NE 8 4966 5810 0 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 55 55 NE 8 4849 5810 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 55 55 NE 8 4849 5810 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 55 55 NE 8 4849 5810 0 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 55 55 E 7 4849 5810 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 E 7 4811 5810 0 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 53 53 E 7 4511 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 51 E 7 3270 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 51 51 E 7 3270 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 50 E 7 3081 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 50 NE 6 3081 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 49 NE 6 3081 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 NE 6 3081 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 50 NE 6 3081 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 52 NE 6 3903 5810 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 56 57 NE 6 4927 5810 0 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 59 62 SE 3 6071 5810 0 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 63 66 SE 3 7017 6360 550 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 65 69 SE 3 7612 7001 1191 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 67 71 SE 3 7898 7425 1615 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 67 70 SE 3 7734 7214 1404 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 66 68 SE 3 7444 6788 978 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 64 64 W 5 6587 5810 0 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 61 61 W 5 5642 5810 0 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 58 58 W 5 4966 5810 0 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 55 55 W 5 4849 5810 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 53 53 W 5 4511 5810 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 52 W 5 3903 5810 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 52 NE 5 3903 5810 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 NE 5 4511 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 53 NE 5 4511 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 52 NE 5 3903 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 52 NE 5 3903 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 51 NE 5 3270 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 50 NE 3 3081 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 50 NE 3 3081 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 51 NE 3 3270 5810 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 52 NE 3 3903 5810 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 54 NE 3 4811 5810 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 56 57 NE 3 4927 5810 0 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 58 61 S 5 5642 5810 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 60 63 S 5 6372 5810 0 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 62 66 S 5 7017 6360 550 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 64 68 S 5 7444 6788 978 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 65 68 S 5 7444 6788 978 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 66 68 S 5 7444 6788 978 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 66 66 W 6 7017 6360 550 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 65 65 W 6 6802 6053 243 Blue 12
7 PM Thu 63 63 W 6 6372 5810 0 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 61 61 W 6 5642 5810 0 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 59 59 W 6 5005 5810 0 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 57 57 W 6 4927 5810 0 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 54 54 N 6 4811 5810 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 N 6 4511 5810 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 52 N 6 3903 5810 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 51 N 6 3270 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 51 51 N 6 3270 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 51 51 N 6 3270 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 52 NE 2 3903 5810 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 53 NE 2 4511 5810 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 54 NE 2 4811 5810 0 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 56 56 NE 2 4888 5810 0 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 57 57 NE 2 4927 5810 0 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 59 60 NE 2 5205 5810 0 Blue 7
11 AM Fri 61 63 N 2 6372 5810 0 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 63 66 N 2 7017 6360 550 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 65 69 N 2 7612 7001 1191 Blue 16
2 PM Fri 66 70 N 2 7734 7214 1404 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 67 70 N 2 7734 7214 1404 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 68 69 N 2 7612 7001 1191 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 68 68 W 2 7444 6788 978 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 67 67 W 2 7230 6575 765 Blue 14
7 PM Fri 65 65 W 2 6802 6053 243 Blue 12
8 PM Fri 63 63 W 2 6372 5810 0 Blue 10
9 PM Fri 61 61 W 2 5642 5810 0 Blue 8
10 PM Fri 58 58 W 2 4966 5810 0 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 56 56 NE 5 4888 5810 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 55 55 NE 5 4849 5810 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 54 54 NE 5 4811 5810 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 53 53 NE 5 4511 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 53 NE 5 4511 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 53 NE 5 4511 5810 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 54 NE 3 4811 5810 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sat 55 55 NE 3 4849 5810 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sat 56 56 NE 3 4888 5810 0 Blue 3
8 AM Sat 57 57 NE 3 4927 5810 0 Blue 4
9 AM Sat 58 58 NE 3 4966 5810 0 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 60 61 NE 3 5642 5810 0 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 62 64 NE 2 6587 5810 0 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 64 67 NE 2 7230 6575 765 Blue 14
1 PM Sat 65 69 NE 2 7612 7001 1191 Blue 16
2 PM Sat 67 71 NE 2 7898 7425 1615 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 68 71 NE 2 7898 7425 1615 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 68 69 NE 2 7612 7001 1191 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 68 68 W 2 7444 6788 978 Blue 15
6 PM Sat 67 67 W 2 7230 6575 765 Blue 14
7 PM Sat 65 65 W 2 6802 6053 243 Blue 12
8 PM Sat 63 63 W 2 6372 5810 0 Blue 10
9 PM Sat 61 61 W 2 5642 5810 0 Blue 8
10 PM Sat 59 59 W 2 5005 5810 0 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 57 57 E 3 4927 5810 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 E 3 4888 5810 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 54 54 E 3 4811 5810 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 53 53 E 3 4511 5810 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 52 E 3 3903 5810 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 52 E 3 3903 5810 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com