Detailed Predictions for: St John
Launch Altitude (f): 6350
LZ Altitude (f): 1185
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

15 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 46 46 N 13 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 N 13 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 N 13 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 46 N 10 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 47 47 N 10 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 49 50 N 10 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 51 54 NE 10 3964 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 54 58 NE 10 4891 6350 0 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 56 60 NE 10 4969 6350 0 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 58 62 NE 10 5232 6350 0 Blue 7
3 PM Mon 60 63 NE 10 5666 6350 0 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 61 63 NE 10 5666 6350 0 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 61 61 NE 7 5008 6350 0 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 58 58 NE 7 4891 6350 0 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 55 55 NE 7 4566 6350 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 53 53 N 9 3338 6350 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 52 52 N 9 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 51 51 N 9 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 51 51 NE 9 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 NE 9 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 48 48 NE 9 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 47 47 N 9 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 47 47 N 9 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 47 N 9 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 N 9 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 N 9 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 N 9 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 45 45 N 9 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 47 47 N 9 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 50 51 N 9 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 53 56 NE 10 4814 6350 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 57 60 NE 10 4969 6350 0 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 59 63 NE 10 5666 6350 0 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 62 66 NE 9 6596 6350 0 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 63 66 NE 9 6596 6350 0 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 64 65 NE 9 6381 6350 0 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 64 64 NE 8 6092 6350 0 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 62 62 NE 8 5232 6350 0 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 60 60 NE 8 4969 6350 0 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 58 58 NE 8 4891 6350 0 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 56 56 NE 8 4814 6350 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 55 55 NE 8 4566 6350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 54 54 NE 8 3964 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 NE 8 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 51 51 NE 8 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 50 50 NE 8 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 49 NE 8 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 49 NE 8 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 48 N 6 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 47 N 6 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 46 46 N 6 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 46 N 6 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 47 47 N 6 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 49 50 N 6 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 52 55 NE 6 4566 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 55 59 NE 6 4930 6350 0 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 58 62 NE 6 5232 6350 0 Blue 7
2 PM Wed 61 65 NE 6 6381 6350 0 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 62 65 NE 6 6381 6350 0 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 63 65 NE 6 6381 6350 0 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 63 63 SW 3 5666 6350 0 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 61 61 SW 3 5008 6350 0 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 58 58 SW 3 4891 6350 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 56 56 SW 3 4814 6350 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 53 53 SW 3 3338 6350 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 52 SW 3 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 51 51 N 3 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 N 3 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 49 N 3 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 48 N 3 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 48 N 3 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 47 N 3 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 46 46 NE 3 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 46 46 NE 3 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 46 NE 3 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 47 47 NE 3 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 48 48 NE 3 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 50 51 NE 3 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 52 55 NW 3 4566 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 54 58 NW 3 4891 6350 0 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 56 60 NW 3 4969 6350 0 Blue 5
2 PM Thu 59 63 NW 3 5666 6350 0 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 61 64 NW 3 6092 6350 0 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 62 64 NW 3 6092 6350 0 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 63 63 SW 3 5666 6350 0 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 63 63 SW 3 5666 6350 0 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 61 61 SW 3 5008 6350 0 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 59 59 SW 3 4930 6350 0 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 57 57 SW 3 4853 6350 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 55 55 SW 3 4566 6350 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 52 N 5 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 N 5 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 49 N 5 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 49 N 5 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 N 5 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 48 N 5 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 48 N 5 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 49 49 N 5 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 49 N 5 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 50 50 N 5 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 52 N 5 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 53 54 N 5 3964 6350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 55 58 N 5 4891 6350 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 58 61 N 5 5008 6350 0 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 60 64 N 5 6092 6350 0 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 62 66 N 5 6596 6350 0 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 64 67 N 5 6810 6350 0 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 65 66 N 5 6596 6350 0 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 66 66 N 2 6596 6350 0 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 65 65 N 2 6381 6350 0 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 64 64 N 2 6092 6350 0 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 61 61 N 2 5008 6350 0 Blue 6
9 PM Fri 59 59 N 2 4930 6350 0 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 56 56 N 2 4814 6350 0 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 53 53 NE 6 3338 6350 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 NE 6 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 50 NE 6 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 49 NE 6 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 48 48 NE 6 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 48 NE 6 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 48 N 5 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 48 N 5 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 48 N 5 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 49 N 5 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 50 N 5 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 51 52 N 5 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 53 56 N 3 4814 6350 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 56 59 N 3 4930 6350 0 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 58 62 N 3 5232 6350 0 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 61 65 N 3 6381 6350 0 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 63 66 N 3 6596 6350 0 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 65 66 N 3 6596 6350 0 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 66 66 N 1 6596 6350 0 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 66 66 N 1 6596 6350 0 Blue 11
7 PM Sat 65 65 N 1 6381 6350 0 Blue 10
8 PM Sat 63 63 N 1 5666 6350 0 Blue 8
9 PM Sat 61 61 N 1 5008 6350 0 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 59 59 N 1 4930 6350 0 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 57 57 E 3 4853 6350 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 E 3 4566 6350 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 53 53 E 3 3338 6350 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 52 E 3 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 50 E 3 3081 6350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 49 E 3 3081 6350 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com