Detailed Predictions for: Noel Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 4950
LZ Altitude (f): 1070
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 18 MAY 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 46 46 N 9 3848 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 47 N 9 3848 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 48 48 N 9 3848 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 50 51 N 8 3848 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 53 55 N 8 7586 4950 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 57 61 N 8 8792 7970 3020 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 60 66 NE 7 11143 9961 5011 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 62 69 NE 7 12851 11010 6060 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 63 70 NE 7 13085 11622 6672 Blue 17
2 PM Fri 64 71 NE 5 13317 12208 7258 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 65 71 NE 5 13317 12208 7258 Blue 18
4 PM Fri 65 69 NE 5 12851 11010 6060 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 64 66 E 5 11143 9961 5011 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 61 62 E 5 9805 8133 3183 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 58 58 E 5 7983 7551 2601 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 54 54 N 3 7008 4950 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 52 52 N 3 3848 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 51 51 N 3 3848 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 50 50 N 2 3848 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 N 2 3848 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 51 N 2 3848 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 51 SE 1 3848 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 50 SE 1 3848 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 48 SE 1 3848 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 48 N 3 3848 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 50 N 3 3848 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 N 3 7008 4950 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sat 58 59 NE 2 8168 7789 2839 Blue 6
9 AM Sat 61 63 NE 2 9993 8444 3494 Blue 10
10 AM Sat 63 67 NE 2 11762 10165 5215 Blue 14
11 AM Sat 65 71 E 3 13317 12208 7258 Blue 18
12 Noon Sat 67 74 E 3 14010 13250 8300 Blue 21
1 PM Sat 67 74 E 3 14010 13250 8300 Blue 21
2 PM Sat 68 75 SE 7 14583 13481 8531 Blue 22
3 PM Sat 68 74 SE 7 14010 13250 8300 Blue 21
4 PM Sat 68 72 SE 7 13549 12771 7821 Blue 19
5 PM Sat 67 69 SE 3 12851 11010 6060 Blue 16
6 PM Sat 65 66 SE 3 11143 9961 5011 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 62 62 SE 3 9805 8133 3183 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 59 59 SE 3 8168 7789 2839 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 57 57 SE 3 7880 6947 1997 Blue 4
10 PM Sat 57 57 SE 3 7880 6947 1997 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 57 57 NW 2 7880 6947 1997 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 NW 2 7880 6947 1997 Blue 4
1 AM Sun 57 57 NW 2 7880 6947 1997 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 58 58 NW 2 7983 7551 2601 Blue 5
3 AM Sun 57 57 NW 2 7880 6947 1997 Blue 4
4 AM Sun 55 55 NW 2 7586 4950 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sun 55 55 N 2 7586 4950 0 Blue 2
6 AM Sun 57 57 N 2 7880 6947 1997 Blue 4
7 AM Sun 60 60 N 2 8482 7872 2922 Blue 7
8 AM Sun 63 64 N 2 10204 8752 3802 Blue 11
9 AM Sun 67 69 N 2 12851 11010 6060 Blue 16
10 AM Sun 70 74 N 2 14010 13250 8300 Blue 21
11 AM Sun 71 75 S 0 14583 13481 8531 Blue 22
12 Noon Sun 71 76 S 0 15323 13710 8760 Blue 23
1 PM Sun 71 77 S 0 15798 13938 8988 Blue 24
2 PM Sun 70 75 S 0 14583 13481 8531 Blue 22
3 PM Sun 71 75 S 0 14583 13481 8531 Blue 22
4 PM Sun 71 74 S 0 14010 13250 8300 Blue 21
5 PM Sun 70 72 S 8 13549 12771 7821 Blue 19
6 PM Sun 67 68 S 8 12354 10383 5433 Blue 15
7 PM Sun 63 63 S 8 9993 8444 3494 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 60 60 S 8 8482 7872 2922 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 57 57 S 8 7880 6947 1997 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 55 55 S 8 7586 4950 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 54 54 S 7 7008 4950 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 S 7 7008 4950 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 55 55 S 7 7586 4950 0 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 56 56 S 7 7797 4950 0 Blue 3
3 AM Mon 55 55 S 7 7586 4950 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 54 54 S 7 7008 4950 0 Blue 1
5 AM Mon 54 54 W 5 7008 4950 0 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 56 56 W 5 7797 4950 0 Blue 3
7 AM Mon 59 59 W 5 8168 7789 2839 Blue 6
8 AM Mon 61 61 W 5 8792 7970 3020 Blue 8
9 AM Mon 62 63 W 5 9993 8444 3494 Blue 10
10 AM Mon 62 64 W 5 10204 8752 3802 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 62 66 W 5 11143 9961 5011 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 62 66 W 5 11143 9961 5011 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 62 67 W 5 11762 10165 5215 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 62 66 W 5 11143 9961 5011 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 62 66 W 5 11143 9961 5011 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 61 64 W 5 10204 8752 3802 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 60 61 W 13 8792 7970 3020 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 57 57 W 13 7880 6947 1997 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 54 54 W 13 7008 4950 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 51 51 W 13 3848 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 50 50 W 13 3848 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 49 W 13 3848 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 49 49 NW 10 3848 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 NW 10 3848 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 49 49 NW 10 3848 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 NW 10 3848 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 49 NW 10 3848 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 49 NW 10 3848 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 49 NW 12 3848 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 51 NW 12 3848 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 53 53 NW 12 4444 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 56 56 NW 12 7797 4950 0 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 57 58 NW 12 7983 7551 2601 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 58 61 NW 12 8792 7970 3020 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 59 65 NW 8 10494 9773 4823 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 59 66 NW 8 11143 9961 5011 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 58 65 NW 8 10494 9773 4823 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 58 65 NW 8 10494 9773 4823 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 59 65 NW 8 10494 9773 4823 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 60 64 NW 8 10204 8752 3802 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 60 62 N 3 9805 8133 3183 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 58 59 N 3 8168 7789 2839 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 55 55 N 3 7586 4950 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 53 53 N 3 4444 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 51 51 N 3 3848 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 51 51 N 3 3848 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 51 51 N 10 3848 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 N 10 3848 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 50 50 N 10 3848 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 50 50 N 10 3848 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 50 N 10 3848 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 50 N 10 3848 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 50 N 16 3848 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 N 16 3848 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 53 N 16 4444 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 57 N 16 7880 6947 1997 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 58 60 N 16 8482 7872 2922 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 61 65 N 16 10494 9773 4823 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 62 67 N 15 11762 10165 5215 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 63 69 N 15 12851 11010 6060 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 63 69 N 15 12851 11010 6060 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 62 68 N 15 12354 10383 5433 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 63 68 N 15 12354 10383 5433 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 63 66 N 15 11143 9961 5011 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 63 65 N 10 10494 9773 4823 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 61 62 N 10 9805 8133 3183 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 59 59 N 10 8168 7789 2839 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 57 57 N 10 7880 6947 1997 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 56 56 N 10 7797 4950 0 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 56 56 N 10 7797 4950 0 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 55 55 N 14 7586 4950 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 N 14 7586 4950 0 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 56 56 N 14 7797 4950 0 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 55 55 N 14 7586 4950 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 54 54 N 14 7008 4950 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 52 52 N 14 3848 4950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com