Detailed Predictions for: Mt Diablo
Launch Altitude (f): 3000
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 10 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
7 AM Wed 34 34 NW 15 2582 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 34 34 NW 15 2582 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 36 37 NW 15 3861 3000 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 37 39 N 10 5507 3000 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 37 39 N 10 5507 3000 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 38 41 N 10 6344 5104 2104 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 39 41 N 8 6344 5104 2104 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 40 42 N 8 6710 5464 2464 Blue 6
3 PM Wed 39 40 N 8 5984 3798 798 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 39 40 N 7 5984 3798 798 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 37 37 N 7 3861 3000 0 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 36 36 N 7 2881 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 36 36 NW 6 2881 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 36 36 NW 6 2881 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 36 36 NW 6 2881 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 35 35 NW 7 2582 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 35 35 NW 7 2582 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 34 34 NW 7 2582 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 34 34 NW 6 2582 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 33 33 NW 6 2582 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 33 33 NW 6 2582 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 35 35 NW 4 2582 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 34 34 NW 4 2582 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 35 35 NW 4 2582 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 38 38 N 4 5128 3000 0 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 39 39 N 4 5507 3000 0 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 42 43 N 4 7140 5934 2934 White 7
10 AM Thu 45 47 W 2 7985 7511 4511 White 11
11 AM Thu 43 46 W 2 7774 7149 4149 White 10
12 Noon Thu 47 50 W 2 8567 8034 5034 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 49 52 SW 2 8900 8369 5369 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 50 53 SW 2 9066 8534 5534 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 49 51 SW 2 8734 8203 5203 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 49 49 SW 3 8401 7859 4859 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 46 46 SW 3 7774 7149 4149 White 10
6 PM Thu 45 45 SW 3 7563 6641 3641 White 9
7 PM Thu 44 44 SW 3 7352 6323 3323 White 8
8 PM Thu 44 44 SW 3 7352 6323 3323 White 8
9 PM Thu 44 44 SW 3 7352 6323 3323 White 8
10 PM Thu 43 43 S 4 7140 5934 2934 White 7
11 PM Thu 43 43 S 4 7140 5934 2934 White 7
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 S 4 6710 5464 2464 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 42 42 S 4 6710 5464 2464 Blue 6
2 AM Fri 41 41 S 4 6344 5104 2104 Blue 5
3 AM Fri 40 40 S 4 5984 3798 798 Blue 4
4 AM Fri 41 41 S 5 6344 5104 2104 Blue 5
5 AM Fri 40 40 S 5 5984 3798 798 Blue 4
6 AM Fri 41 41 S 5 6344 5104 2104 Blue 5
7 AM Fri 43 43 S 5 7140 5934 2934 White 7
8 AM Fri 43 43 S 5 7140 5934 2934 White 7
9 AM Fri 45 45 S 5 7563 6641 3641 White 9
10 AM Fri 46 46 S 8 7774 7149 4149 White 10
11 AM Fri 46 46 S 8 7774 7149 4149 White 10
12 Noon Fri 47 47 S 8 7985 7511 4511 White 11
1 PM Fri 49 49 S 8 8401 7859 4859 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 49 49 S 8 8401 7859 4859 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 48 48 S 8 8195 7685 4685 White 12
4 PM Fri 48 48 SW 14 8195 7685 4685 White 12
5 PM Fri 45 45 SW 14 7563 6641 3641 White 9
6 PM Fri 45 45 SW 14 7563 6641 3641 White 9
7 PM Fri 44 44 SW 14 7352 6323 3323 White 8
8 PM Fri 43 43 SW 14 7140 5934 2934 White 7
9 PM Fri 44 44 SW 14 7352 6323 3323 White 8
10 PM Fri 43 43 W 10 7140 5934 2934 White 7
11 PM Fri 42 42 W 10 6710 5464 2464 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 W 10 6710 5464 2464 Blue 6
1 AM Sat 42 42 W 10 6710 5464 2464 Blue 6
2 AM Sat 40 40 W 10 5984 3798 798 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 40 40 W 10 5984 3798 798 Blue 4
4 AM Sat 41 41 NW 8 6344 5104 2104 Blue 5
5 AM Sat 40 40 NW 8 5984 3798 798 Blue 4
6 AM Sat 41 41 NW 8 6344 5104 2104 Blue 5
7 AM Sat 42 42 NW 8 6710 5464 2464 Blue 6
8 AM Sat 42 42 NW 8 6710 5464 2464 Blue 6
9 AM Sat 43 44 NW 8 7352 6323 3323 White 8
10 AM Sat 45 46 N 8 7774 7149 4149 White 10
11 AM Sat 44 46 N 8 7774 7149 4149 White 10
12 Noon Sat 45 47 N 8 7985 7511 4511 White 11
1 PM Sat 46 48 N 8 8195 7685 4685 White 12
2 PM Sat 47 48 N 8 8195 7685 4685 White 12
3 PM Sat 46 47 N 8 7985 7511 4511 White 11
4 PM Sat 45 45 NW 9 7563 6641 3641 White 9
5 PM Sat 43 43 NW 9 7140 5934 2934 White 7
6 PM Sat 43 43 NW 9 7140 5934 2934 White 7
7 PM Sat 42 42 NW 9 6710 5464 2464 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 42 42 NW 9 6710 5464 2464 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 42 42 NW 9 6710 5464 2464 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 41 41 NW 9 6344 5104 2104 Blue 5
11 PM Sat 41 41 NW 9 6344 5104 2104 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sun 40 40 NW 9 5984 3798 798 Blue 4
1 AM Sun 40 40 NW 9 5984 3798 798 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 39 39 NW 9 5507 3000 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 39 39 NW 9 5507 3000 0 Blue 3
4 AM Sun 40 40 NW 5 5984 3798 798 Blue 4
5 AM Sun 40 40 NW 5 5984 3798 798 Blue 4
6 AM Sun 41 41 NW 5 6344 5104 2104 Blue 5
7 AM Sun 43 43 NW 5 7140 5934 2934 White 7
8 AM Sun 44 44 NW 5 7352 6323 3323 White 8
9 AM Sun 46 47 NW 5 7985 7511 4511 White 11
10 AM Sun 49 52 NW 4 8900 8369 5369 Blue 16
11 AM Sun 48 52 NW 4 8900 8369 5369 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 50 54 NW 4 9232 8700 5700 Blue 18
1 PM Sun 52 56 NW 4 9562 9030 6030 Blue 20
2 PM Sun 53 56 NW 4 9562 9030 6030 Blue 20
3 PM Sun 52 54 NW 4 9232 8700 5700 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 52 53 W 7 9066 8534 5534 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 49 49 W 7 8401 7859 4859 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 48 48 W 7 8195 7685 4685 White 12
7 PM Sun 47 47 W 7 7985 7511 4511 White 11
8 PM Sun 47 47 W 7 7985 7511 4511 White 11
9 PM Sun 47 47 W 7 7985 7511 4511 White 11
10 PM Sun 46 46 NW 3 7774 7149 4149 White 10
11 PM Sun 46 46 NW 3 7774 7149 4149 White 10
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 NW 3 7563 6641 3641 White 9
1 AM Mon 45 45 NW 3 7563 6641 3641 White 9
2 AM Mon 44 44 NW 3 7352 6323 3323 White 8
3 AM Mon 43 43 NW 3 7140 5934 2934 White 7
4 AM Mon 44 44 SW 4 7352 6323 3323 White 8
5 AM Mon 44 44 SW 4 7352 6323 3323 White 8
6 AM Mon 45 45 SW 4 7563 6641 3641 White 9
7 AM Mon 46 46 SW 4 7774 7149 4149 White 10
8 AM Mon 47 47 SW 4 7985 7511 4511 White 11
9 AM Mon 49 50 SW 4 8567 8034 5034 Blue 14
10 AM Mon 50 52 S 5 8900 8369 5369 Blue 16
11 AM Mon 50 53 S 5 9066 8534 5534 Blue 17
12 Noon Mon 51 55 S 5 9397 8865 5865 Blue 19
1 PM Mon 53 56 S 5 9562 9030 6030 Blue 20
2 PM Mon 54 57 S 5 9635 9195 6195 Blue 21
3 PM Mon 52 54 S 5 9232 8700 5700 Blue 18
4 PM Mon 52 53 SW 7 9066 8534 5534 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 49 49 SW 7 8401 7859 4859 Blue 13
6 PM Mon 48 48 SW 7 8195 7685 4685 White 12
7 PM Mon 47 47 SW 7 7985 7511 4511 White 11
8 PM Mon 47 47 SW 7 7985 7511 4511 White 11
9 PM Mon 47 47 SW 7 7985 7511 4511 White 11
10 PM Mon 46 46 W 9 7774 7149 4149 White 10
11 PM Mon 46 46 W 9 7774 7149 4149 White 10
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 W 9 7563 6641 3641 White 9
1 AM Tue 45 45 W 9 7563 6641 3641 White 9
2 AM Tue 43 43 W 9 7140 5934 2934 White 7
3 AM Tue 43 43 W 9 7140 5934 2934 White 7
4 AM Tue 44 44 W 7 7352 6323 3323 White 8
5 AM Tue 43 43 W 7 7140 5934 2934 White 7
6 AM Tue 44 44 W 7 7352 6323 3323 White 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com