Detailed Predictions for: Mt Diablo
Launch Altitude (f): 3000
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 15 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Mon 42 42 NE 7 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 42 42 NE 7 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 42 NE 7 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 46 NE 5 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 46 47 NE 5 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 47 49 NE 5 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 51 54 E 9 3277 3000 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 53 58 E 9 3937 3439 439 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 57 62 E 9 4593 4094 1094 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 58 63 E 8 4757 4258 1258 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 59 63 E 8 4757 4258 1258 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 60 62 E 8 4593 4094 1094 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 59 60 SE 4 4265 3767 767 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 54 54 SE 4 3277 3000 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 52 52 SE 4 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 50 50 S 3 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 50 50 S 3 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 50 50 S 3 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 50 S 5 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 S 5 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 49 49 S 5 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 48 S 7 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 47 47 S 7 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 47 S 7 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 S 6 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 47 S 6 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 47 S 6 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 S 5 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 50 50 S 5 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 51 52 S 5 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 53 56 S 6 3607 3000 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 55 58 S 6 3937 3439 439 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 57 61 S 6 4429 3931 931 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 58 62 SW 9 4593 4094 1094 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 59 62 SW 9 4593 4094 1094 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 59 61 SW 9 4429 3931 931 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 58 59 W 8 4101 3603 603 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 54 54 W 8 3277 3000 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 52 52 W 8 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 49 49 W 8 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 49 49 W 8 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 50 W 8 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 50 50 NW 6 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 NW 6 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 48 NW 6 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 48 NW 6 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 47 NW 6 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 NW 6 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 47 47 N 7 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 47 N 7 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 47 N 7 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 50 N 7 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 50 N 7 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 50 52 N 7 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 53 56 N 7 3607 3000 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 54 58 N 7 3937 3439 439 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 57 61 N 7 4429 3931 931 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 58 62 N 7 4593 4094 1094 Blue 9
3 PM Wed 59 62 N 7 4593 4094 1094 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 59 61 N 7 4429 3931 931 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 58 59 NW 7 4101 3603 603 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 54 54 NW 7 3277 3000 0 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 52 52 NW 7 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 49 49 NW 7 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 49 49 NW 7 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 49 49 NW 7 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 49 49 N 7 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 N 7 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 48 N 7 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 47 N 7 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 46 N 7 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 46 N 7 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 46 46 N 8 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 46 46 N 8 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 46 N 8 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 49 N 8 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 51 N 8 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 50 52 N 8 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 53 56 N 6 3607 3000 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 55 60 N 6 4265 3767 767 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 58 63 N 6 4757 4258 1258 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 59 64 N 6 4921 4421 1421 Blue 11
3 PM Thu 60 64 N 6 4921 4421 1421 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 61 64 N 6 4921 4421 1421 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 59 60 N 8 4265 3767 767 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 54 54 N 8 3277 3000 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 52 52 N 8 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 49 49 N 8 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 49 49 N 8 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 50 N 8 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 50 N 12 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 N 12 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 47 47 N 12 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 47 47 N 12 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 46 N 12 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 45 N 12 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 46 N 12 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 46 N 12 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 46 N 12 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 49 49 N 12 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 50 N 12 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 50 52 N 12 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 53 56 N 6 3607 3000 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 55 59 N 6 4101 3603 603 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 59 64 N 6 4921 4421 1421 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 60 64 N 6 4921 4421 1421 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 61 64 N 6 4921 4421 1421 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 61 63 N 6 4757 4258 1258 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 60 61 NW 6 4429 3931 931 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 55 55 NW 6 3442 3000 0 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 53 53 NW 6 2987 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 50 50 NW 6 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 49 49 NW 6 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 50 50 NW 6 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 50 50 NW 5 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 49 49 NW 5 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 48 NW 5 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 47 47 NW 5 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 46 NW 5 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 46 NW 5 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 46 NW 6 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 47 NW 6 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 46 NW 6 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 49 NW 6 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 49 49 NW 6 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 50 52 NW 6 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 52 55 SE 3 3442 3000 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 53 57 SE 3 3772 3275 275 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 56 61 SE 3 4429 3931 931 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 57 61 SE 3 4429 3931 931 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 58 61 SE 3 4429 3931 931 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 58 60 SE 3 4265 3767 767 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 57 58 W 7 3937 3439 439 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 52 52 W 7 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 50 50 W 7 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 47 47 W 7 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 47 47 W 7 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 48 48 W 7 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 48 W 5 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 W 5 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 46 46 W 5 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 45 W 5 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 45 W 5 2739 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 44 44 W 5 2739 3000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com