Detailed Predictions for: Mt Diablo
Launch Altitude (f): 3000
LZ Altitude (f): 1000
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 4 FEB 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
4 AM Sat 45 45 E 9 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 E 9 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 45 E 9 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 SE 12 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 46 SE 12 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 50 SE 12 3935 3000 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 51 52 SE 9 4697 3490 490 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 52 54 SE 9 5057 4341 1341 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 53 55 SE 9 5236 4686 1686 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 54 56 S 5 5415 4865 1865 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 54 56 S 5 5415 4865 1865 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 53 54 S 5 5057 4341 1341 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 52 52 E 2 4697 3490 490 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 48 48 E 2 3120 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 46 46 E 2 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 46 46 E 6 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 46 46 E 6 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 45 45 E 6 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 45 45 E 7 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 45 45 E 7 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 E 7 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 45 E 7 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 45 E 7 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 44 E 7 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 45 45 E 8 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 44 44 E 8 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 E 8 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 44 E 8 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 46 E 8 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 51 51 E 8 4362 3117 117 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 52 53 E 8 4877 3919 919 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 53 55 E 8 5236 4686 1686 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 54 56 E 8 5415 4865 1865 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 56 58 E 8 5772 5222 2222 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 56 57 E 8 5594 5043 2043 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 55 56 E 8 5415 4865 1865 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 54 54 E 7 5057 4341 1341 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 50 50 E 7 3935 3000 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 48 48 E 7 3120 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 48 48 E 7 3120 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 47 47 E 7 2812 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 47 47 E 7 2812 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 47 47 E 8 2812 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 47 47 E 8 2812 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 47 47 E 8 2812 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 47 E 8 2812 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 47 E 8 2812 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 E 8 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 SE 9 2812 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 SE 9 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 47 SE 9 2812 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 SE 9 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 48 SE 9 3120 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 51 51 SE 9 4362 3117 117 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 52 53 SE 9 4877 3919 919 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 53 54 SE 9 5057 4341 1341 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 54 55 SE 9 5236 4686 1686 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 55 56 SE 9 5415 4865 1865 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 55 56 SE 9 5415 4865 1865 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 54 54 SE 9 5057 4341 1341 Blue 6
4 PM Mon 53 53 SW 5 4877 3919 919 Blue 5
5 PM Mon 49 49 SW 5 3500 3000 0 Blue 1
6 PM Mon 47 47 SW 5 2812 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 47 47 SW 5 2812 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 46 46 SW 5 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 46 46 SW 5 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 46 46 SE 14 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 46 46 SE 14 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 SE 14 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 SE 14 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 SE 14 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 45 SE 14 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 45 45 S 14 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 45 45 S 14 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 45 45 S 14 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 S 14 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 46 46 S 14 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 48 48 S 14 3120 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 48 48 S 20 3120 3000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 49 49 S 20 3500 3000 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 49 49 S 20 3500 3000 0 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 50 50 S 20 3935 3000 0 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 50 50 S 20 3935 3000 0 Blue 2
3 PM Tue 49 49 S 20 3500 3000 0 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 47 47 S 10 2812 3000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 44 44 S 10 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 42 42 S 10 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 42 42 S 10 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 41 41 S 10 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 41 41 S 10 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 41 41 SE 3 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 41 41 SE 3 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 41 41 SE 3 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 41 41 SE 3 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 41 41 SE 3 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 40 40 SE 3 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 41 41 NE 8 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 40 40 NE 8 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 41 41 NE 8 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 40 NE 8 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 42 42 NE 8 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 47 47 NE 8 2812 3000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 48 49 N 10 3500 3000 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 50 51 N 10 4362 3117 117 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 51 52 N 10 4697 3490 490 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 52 53 N 10 4877 3919 919 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 52 53 N 10 4877 3919 919 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 52 52 N 10 4697 3490 490 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 51 51 N 12 4362 3117 117 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 48 48 N 12 3120 3000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 46 46 N 12 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 46 46 N 12 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 46 46 N 12 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 45 45 N 12 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 45 45 N 12 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 45 45 N 12 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 45 45 N 12 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 45 45 N 12 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 45 45 N 12 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 45 45 N 12 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 46 N 10 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 N 10 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 46 46 N 10 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 45 45 N 10 2612 3000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 47 47 N 10 2812 3000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 51 N 10 4362 3117 117 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 52 53 NE 9 4877 3919 919 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 53 55 NE 9 5236 4686 1686 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 54 56 NE 9 5415 4865 1865 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 56 58 NE 9 5772 5222 2222 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 56 58 NE 9 5772 5222 2222 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 55 56 NE 9 5415 4865 1865 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 54 54 N 6 5057 4341 1341 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 50 50 N 6 3935 3000 0 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 48 48 N 6 3120 3000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 48 48 N 6 3120 3000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 47 47 N 6 2812 3000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 47 47 N 6 2812 3000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 47 47 NE 3 2812 3000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 47 47 NE 3 2812 3000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 47 47 NE 3 2812 3000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 47 47 NE 3 2812 3000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 47 47 NE 3 2812 3000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 46 NE 3 2612 3000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com