Detailed Predictions for: Marina Beach
Launch Altitude (f): 60
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 3 SEP 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 56 36 W 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 36 W 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 36 W 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 57 37 W 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 57 37 W 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 57 37 W 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 58 41 W 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 59 43 W 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 61 45 W 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 63 47 W 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 64 47 W 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 64 46 W 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 64 45 SW 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 63 43 SW 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 63 43 SW 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 61 41 SW 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 59 39 SW 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 58 38 SW 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 57 37 W 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 35 W 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 35 W 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 35 W 1 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 35 W 1 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 35 W 1 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 35 SW 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 35 SW 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 35 SW 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 36 W 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 36 W 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 36 W 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 57 40 W 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 58 42 W 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 60 44 W 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 62 46 NW 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 63 46 NW 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 63 45 NW 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 63 44 W 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 62 42 W 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 62 42 W 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 60 40 W 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 59 39 W 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 58 38 W 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 56 36 NW 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 35 NW 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 34 NW 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 55 35 NW 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 35 NW 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 34 NW 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 35 NW 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 35 NW 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 34 NW 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 35 NW 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 35 NW 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 56 36 NW 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 56 39 W 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 57 41 W 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 59 43 W 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 60 44 W 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 61 44 W 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 61 43 W 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 61 42 W 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 60 40 W 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 60 40 W 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 59 39 W 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 57 37 W 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 36 W 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 55 35 NE 1 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 34 NE 1 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 34 NE 1 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 34 NE 1 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 34 NE 1 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 34 NE 1 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 34 N 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 34 N 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 34 N 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 35 N 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 55 35 N 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 56 36 N 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 56 39 W 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 58 42 W 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 60 45 W 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 62 46 W 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 63 47 W 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 63 46 W 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 63 44 W 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 63 43 W 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 62 42 W 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 61 41 W 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 59 39 W 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 58 38 W 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 56 36 NW 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 35 NW 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 35 NW 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 55 35 NW 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 35 NW 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 55 35 NW 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 35 W 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 35 W 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 34 W 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 35 W 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 35 W 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 55 35 W 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 56 39 W 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 57 41 W 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 58 42 W 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 59 43 W 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 59 42 W 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 59 41 W 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 59 40 W 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 59 39 W 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 58 38 W 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 58 38 W 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 57 37 W 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 36 W 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 36 NW 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 35 NW 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 35 NW 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 35 NW 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 35 NW 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 35 NW 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 35 NW 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 35 NW 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 35 NW 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 35 NW 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 55 35 NW 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 55 35 NW 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 55 38 W 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 56 40 W 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 56 40 W 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 57 41 W 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 57 40 W 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 57 39 W 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 57 38 W 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 56 36 W 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 56 36 W 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 55 35 W 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 54 34 W 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 53 33 W 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 32 NW 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 51 31 NW 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 30 NW 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 31 NW 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 31 NW 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 30 NW 6 0 60 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com