Detailed Predictions for: Marina Beach
Launch Altitude (f): 60
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 19 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 54 34 NE 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 34 NE 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 33 NE 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 34 E 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 36 E 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 40 E 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 58 42 E 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 61 46 E 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 62 48 E 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 64 49 SW 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 65 49 SW 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 65 48 SW 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 67 48 SW 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 67 47 SW 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 67 47 SW 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 64 44 S 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 63 43 S 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 62 42 S 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 61 41 E 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 59 39 E 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 58 38 E 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 56 36 E 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 34 E 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 33 E 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 32 E 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 31 E 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 30 E 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 30 S 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 33 S 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 55 37 S 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 55 39 W 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 58 43 W 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 59 45 W 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 61 46 SW 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 62 46 SW 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 63 46 SW 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 64 45 W 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 65 45 W 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 65 45 W 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 62 42 W 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 60 40 W 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 60 40 W 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 59 39 N 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 36 N 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 36 N 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 34 N 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 31 N 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 50 30 N 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 28 N 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 28 N 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 27 N 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 27 N 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 48 28 N 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 51 32 N 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 52 34 NW 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 54 37 NW 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 55 38 NW 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 57 40 NW 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 58 40 NW 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 59 40 NW 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 61 42 NW 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 61 41 NW 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 61 41 NW 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 59 39 NW 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 58 38 NW 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 37 NW 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 36 NW 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 35 NW 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 34 NW 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 33 NW 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 31 NW 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 50 30 NW 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 49 29 N 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 29 N 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 28 N 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 28 N 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 49 29 N 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 52 33 N 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 52 34 N 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 54 37 N 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 55 38 N 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 57 40 N 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 58 41 N 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 59 41 N 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 60 41 NW 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 60 40 NW 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 60 40 NW 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 58 38 NW 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 57 37 NW 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 57 37 NW 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 56 36 N 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 34 N 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 33 N 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 32 N 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 30 N 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 29 N 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 28 N 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 28 N 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 27 N 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 28 N 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 49 30 N 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 52 34 N 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 52 35 N 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 55 39 N 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 56 40 N 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 58 42 N 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 59 42 N 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 60 42 N 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 61 42 NW 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 61 41 NW 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 61 41 NW 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 59 39 NW 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 38 NW 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 58 38 NW 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 36 N 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 35 N 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 34 N 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 32 N 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 30 N 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 29 N 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 28 N 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 28 N 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 27 N 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 27 N 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 49 29 N 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 52 33 N 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 52 34 N 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 55 38 N 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 56 39 N 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 58 41 N 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 59 42 N 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 60 42 N 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 61 42 W 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 62 42 W 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 62 42 W 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 60 40 W 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 38 W 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 58 38 W 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 57 37 NW 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 35 NW 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 34 NW 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 33 NW 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 31 NW 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 30 NW 2 0 60 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com