Detailed Predictions for: Marina Beach
Launch Altitude (f): 60
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 11 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
7 AM Thu 46 26 E 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 47 27 E 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 47 29 E 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 50 33 N 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 52 36 N 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 53 37 N 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 53 37 NW 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 54 37 NW 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 56 38 NW 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 57 37 W 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 57 37 W 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 55 35 W 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 54 34 W 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 53 33 W 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 51 31 W 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 51 31 W 1 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 31 W 1 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 30 W 1 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 30 E 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 28 E 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 28 E 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 29 E 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 27 E 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 26 E 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 48 28 SE 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 49 29 SE 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 49 29 SE 3 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 51 31 S 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 53 34 S 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 53 34 S 8 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 53 34 S 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 54 34 S 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 55 35 S 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 56 36 S 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 56 36 S 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 55 35 S 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 54 34 S 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 53 33 S 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 32 S 14 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 51 31 W 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 31 W 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 51 31 W 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 31 W 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 29 W 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 49 29 W 11 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 30 N 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 28 N 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 27 N 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 29 N 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 30 N 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 31 N 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 52 34 NW 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 54 37 NW 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 54 37 NW 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 54 37 NW 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 55 37 NW 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 56 37 NW 9 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 57 38 NW 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 57 37 NW 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 55 35 NW 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 54 34 NW 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 53 33 NW 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 51 31 NW 17 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 51 31 N 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 30 N 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 50 30 N 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 30 N 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 28 N 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 28 N 12 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 29 N 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 47 27 N 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 25 N 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 28 N 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 29 N 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 49 30 N 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 52 35 NE 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 54 38 NE 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 54 38 NE 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 55 39 NE 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 56 39 NE 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 57 39 NE 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 58 39 NW 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 58 38 NW 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 56 36 NW 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 55 35 NW 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 54 34 NW 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 53 33 NW 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 52 32 N 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 32 N 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 51 31 N 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 31 N 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 29 N 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 29 N 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 50 30 NE 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 28 NE 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 27 NE 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 30 NE 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 30 NE 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 50 32 NE 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 53 36 NE 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 56 40 NE 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 57 41 NE 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 57 41 NE 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 58 41 NE 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 59 41 NE 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 60 41 W 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 60 40 W 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 58 38 W 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 57 37 W 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 36 W 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 34 W 4 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 34 NE 1 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 53 33 NE 1 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 53 33 NE 1 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 33 NE 1 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 31 NE 1 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 30 NE 1 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 51 31 N 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 29 N 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 28 N 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 30 N 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 31 N 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 51 32 N 2 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 53 35 NW 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 55 38 NW 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 55 39 NW 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 55 38 NW 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 56 39 NW 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 57 39 NW 6 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 58 38 NW 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 58 38 NW 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 57 37 NW 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 55 35 NW 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 54 34 NW 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 53 33 NW 10 0 60 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 32 NW 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 52 32 NW 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 32 NW 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 32 NW 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 50 30 NW 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 30 NW 7 0 60 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 30 NE 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 29 NE 5 0 60 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 28 NE 5 0 60 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com