Detailed Predictions for: Goat Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 2500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

17 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 30 30 NW 9 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 30 30 NW 9 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 31 31 NW 9 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 30 30 SW 8 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 31 31 SW 8 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 33 33 SW 8 3279 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 35 35 NW 15 4332 4000 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 36 37 NW 15 5082 4000 0 White 3
12 Noon Sun 37 38 NW 15 5298 4320 320 White 4
1 PM Sun 38 39 NW 16 5516 4695 695 White 5
2 PM Sun 37 38 NW 16 5298 4320 320 White 4
3 PM Sun 37 37 NW 16 5082 4000 0 White 3
4 PM Sun 36 36 N 18 4711 4000 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 34 34 N 18 3947 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 30 30 N 18 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 29 29 N 14 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 27 27 N 14 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 26 26 N 14 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 26 26 N 12 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 26 26 N 12 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 25 25 N 12 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 27 27 N 15 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 29 29 N 15 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 28 28 N 15 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 28 28 N 14 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 28 28 N 14 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 28 28 N 14 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 27 27 N 16 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 28 28 N 16 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 31 32 N 16 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 35 37 N 17 5082 4000 0 White 3
11 AM Mon 38 41 N 17 5948 5948 1948 White 7
12 Noon Mon 40 44 N 17 6592 6592 2592 White 10
1 PM Mon 41 45 NW 16 6805 6805 2805 White 11
2 PM Mon 40 43 NW 16 6378 6378 2378 White 9
3 PM Mon 40 42 NW 16 6164 6164 2164 White 8
4 PM Mon 39 39 NW 16 5516 4695 695 White 5
5 PM Mon 36 36 NW 16 4711 4000 0 Blue 2
6 PM Mon 32 32 NW 16 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 30 30 N 15 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 28 28 N 15 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 27 27 N 15 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 26 26 N 14 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 26 26 N 14 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 26 26 N 14 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 28 28 N 8 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 30 30 N 8 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 29 29 N 8 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 28 28 N 7 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 28 28 N 7 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 28 28 N 7 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 27 27 N 8 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 29 29 N 8 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 32 33 N 8 3279 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 36 38 NW 9 5298 4320 320 White 4
11 AM Tue 39 42 NW 9 6164 6164 2164 White 8
12 Noon Tue 42 45 NW 9 6805 6805 2805 White 11
1 PM Tue 42 45 N 12 6805 6805 2805 White 11
2 PM Tue 42 44 N 12 6592 6592 2592 White 10
3 PM Tue 42 43 N 12 6378 6378 2378 White 9
4 PM Tue 40 40 N 10 5732 5732 1732 White 6
5 PM Tue 37 37 N 10 5082 4000 0 White 3
6 PM Tue 34 34 N 10 3947 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 32 32 N 7 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 30 30 N 7 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 29 29 N 7 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 28 28 N 7 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 28 28 N 7 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 28 28 N 7 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 29 29 N 7 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 31 31 N 7 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 31 31 N 7 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 30 30 N 7 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 30 30 N 7 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 30 30 N 7 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 29 29 N 7 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 31 31 N 7 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 34 34 N 7 3947 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 37 38 W 7 5298 4320 320 White 4
11 AM Wed 40 42 W 7 6164 6164 2164 White 8
12 Noon Wed 42 44 W 7 6592 6592 2592 White 10
1 PM Wed 43 45 W 7 6805 6805 2805 White 11
2 PM Wed 43 44 W 7 6592 6592 2592 White 10
3 PM Wed 43 44 W 7 6592 6592 2592 White 10
4 PM Wed 41 41 NW 12 5948 5948 1948 White 7
5 PM Wed 39 39 NW 12 5516 4695 695 White 5
6 PM Wed 35 35 NW 12 4332 4000 0 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 34 34 NW 12 3947 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 31 31 NW 12 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 31 31 NW 12 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 30 30 W 13 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 30 30 W 13 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 30 30 W 13 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 31 31 NW 12 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 32 32 NW 12 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 32 32 NW 12 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 31 31 W 13 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 31 31 W 13 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 31 31 W 13 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 30 30 NW 10 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 32 32 NW 10 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 34 34 NW 10 3947 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 36 37 NW 13 5082 4000 0 White 3
11 AM Thu 38 39 NW 13 5516 4695 695 White 5
12 Noon Thu 40 41 NW 13 5948 5948 1948 White 7
1 PM Thu 40 41 NW 14 5948 5948 1948 White 7
2 PM Thu 40 41 NW 14 5948 5948 1948 White 7
3 PM Thu 40 40 NW 14 5732 5732 1732 White 6
4 PM Thu 39 39 NW 13 5516 4695 695 White 5
5 PM Thu 36 36 NW 13 4711 4000 0 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 32 32 NW 13 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 31 31 NW 12 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 29 29 NW 12 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 28 28 NW 12 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 27 27 NW 10 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 27 27 NW 10 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 27 27 NW 10 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 29 29 NW 9 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 31 31 NW 9 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 30 30 NW 9 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 30 30 N 9 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 30 30 N 9 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 29 29 N 9 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 28 28 N 9 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 30 30 N 9 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 33 34 N 9 3947 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 37 39 N 9 5516 4695 695 White 5
11 AM Fri 40 42 N 9 6164 6164 2164 White 8
12 Noon Fri 42 45 N 9 6805 6805 2805 White 11
1 PM Fri 43 46 N 12 7017 7017 3017 White 12
2 PM Fri 42 44 N 12 6592 6592 2592 White 10
3 PM Fri 42 43 N 12 6378 6378 2378 White 9
4 PM Fri 41 41 N 9 5948 5948 1948 White 7
5 PM Fri 38 38 N 9 5298 4320 320 White 4
6 PM Fri 35 35 N 9 4332 4000 0 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 33 33 N 9 3279 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 31 31 N 9 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 30 30 N 9 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 30 30 N 9 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 30 30 N 9 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 29 29 N 9 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 31 31 N 9 2579 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 33 33 N 9 3279 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 33 33 N 9 3279 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com