Detailed Predictions for: Goat Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 2500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

15 OCT 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 53 53 E 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 E 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 E 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 54 NW 5 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 58 NW 5 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 63 65 NW 5 4948 4831 831 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 67 70 N 9 6248 5032 1032 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 69 73 N 9 6882 6215 2215 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 71 75 N 9 7302 6649 2649 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 72 76 N 10 7511 6858 2858 Blue 15
3 PM Mon 72 75 N 10 7302 6649 2649 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 71 73 N 10 6882 6215 2215 Blue 12
5 PM Mon 68 68 NE 13 5412 4946 946 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 62 62 NE 13 4833 4000 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 56 56 NE 13 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 52 52 NE 13 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 51 NE 13 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 50 50 NE 13 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 50 N 8 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 N 8 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 49 49 N 8 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 48 NE 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 48 48 NE 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 47 NE 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 N 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 N 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 46 N 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 48 NW 5 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 54 NW 5 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 60 62 NW 5 4833 4000 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 65 68 W 8 5412 4946 946 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 68 72 W 8 6671 5803 1803 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 70 74 W 8 7092 6439 2439 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 71 75 W 8 7302 6649 2649 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 72 75 W 8 7302 6649 2649 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 70 72 W 8 6671 5803 1803 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 68 68 N 9 5412 4946 946 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 62 62 N 9 4833 4000 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 56 56 N 9 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 53 53 N 9 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 51 51 N 9 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 51 51 N 9 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 50 50 E 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 E 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 50 50 E 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 49 E 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 49 E 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 48 E 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 48 E 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 47 E 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 47 E 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 50 E 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 55 55 E 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 62 64 E 6 4909 4793 793 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 66 69 SW 8 5836 4984 984 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 69 73 SW 8 6882 6215 2215 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 71 75 SW 8 7302 6649 2649 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 72 76 SW 8 7511 6858 2858 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 73 76 SW 8 7511 6858 2858 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 72 74 SW 8 7092 6439 2439 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 69 69 SE 8 5836 4984 984 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 64 64 SE 8 4909 4793 793 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 57 57 SE 8 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 55 55 SE 8 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 53 SE 8 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 53 53 SE 8 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 52 E 7 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 E 7 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 51 E 7 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 51 E 7 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 50 E 7 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 49 E 7 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 NE 7 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 49 NE 7 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 49 NE 7 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 51 NE 7 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 57 57 NE 7 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 63 65 NE 7 4948 4831 831 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 68 71 NE 7 6460 5385 1385 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 70 74 NE 7 7092 6439 2439 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 72 76 NE 7 7511 6858 2858 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 73 77 NE 7 7649 7067 3067 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 74 77 NE 7 7649 7067 3067 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 73 75 NE 7 7302 6649 2649 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 70 70 NE 6 6248 5032 1032 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 64 64 NE 6 4909 4793 793 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 58 58 NE 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 56 56 NE 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 54 NE 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 54 54 NE 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 53 N 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 N 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 52 N 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 52 N 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 51 51 N 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 50 N 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 50 NE 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 50 NE 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 50 NE 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 52 NE 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 58 NE 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 64 66 NE 6 4986 4869 869 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 69 72 NE 7 6671 5803 1803 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 71 75 NE 7 7302 6649 2649 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 73 77 NE 7 7649 7067 3067 Blue 16
2 PM Fri 74 78 NE 7 7768 7276 3276 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 76 79 NE 7 7994 7483 3483 Blue 18
4 PM Fri 74 76 NE 7 7511 6858 2858 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 71 71 NW 7 6460 5385 1385 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 66 66 NW 7 4986 4869 869 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 60 60 NW 7 4276 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 57 57 NW 7 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 55 55 NW 7 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 55 NW 7 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 54 N 5 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 N 5 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 53 N 5 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 53 N 5 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 52 N 5 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 51 N 5 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 51 E 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 51 E 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 51 E 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 53 E 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 59 59 E 6 3675 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 65 67 E 6 5041 4907 907 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 70 73 E 9 6882 6215 2215 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 72 76 E 9 7511 6858 2858 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 74 78 E 9 7768 7276 3276 Blue 17
2 PM Sat 75 79 E 9 7994 7483 3483 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 76 79 E 9 7994 7483 3483 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 75 77 E 9 7649 7067 3067 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 72 72 W 6 6671 5803 1803 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 66 66 W 6 4986 4869 869 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 60 60 W 6 4276 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 58 58 W 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 56 W 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 56 W 6 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 55 55 N 5 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 N 5 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 54 N 5 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 54 N 5 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 53 53 N 5 3081 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 52 N 5 3081 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com