Detailed Predictions for: Goat Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 2500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

16 AUG 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 72 72 SE 3 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 71 71 SE 3 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 72 72 SE 3 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 75 75 S 5 3231 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 78 80 S 5 5003 4000 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 84 87 S 5 9145 7566 3566 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 86 92 W 9 12901 10040 6040 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 86 93 W 9 13678 10883 6883 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 88 96 W 9 15419 13428 9428 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 89 96 NW 12 15419 13428 9428 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 90 96 NW 12 15419 13428 9428 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 90 95 NW 12 14589 12654 8654 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 89 92 W 13 12901 10040 6040 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 87 88 W 13 9610 8088 4088 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 84 84 W 13 7637 5453 1453 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 78 78 N 6 3896 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 76 76 N 6 3453 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 75 75 N 6 3231 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 74 74 N 5 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 74 74 N 5 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 74 74 N 5 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 74 74 N 3 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 73 73 N 3 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 73 73 N 3 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 73 73 NE 2 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 72 72 NE 2 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 74 74 NE 2 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 77 77 W 5 3675 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 80 82 W 5 5962 4112 112 Blue 3
10 AM Fri 86 90 W 5 11125 9060 5060 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 88 94 W 10 14114 11813 7813 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 88 95 W 10 14589 12654 8654 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 90 98 W 10 16124 14222 10222 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 90 97 W 14 15596 14039 10039 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 92 98 W 14 16124 14222 10222 Blue 19
4 PM Fri 91 95 W 14 14589 12654 8654 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 91 94 W 15 14114 11813 7813 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 89 90 W 15 11125 9060 5060 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 85 85 W 15 8166 5925 1925 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 79 79 W 15 4117 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 77 77 W 15 3675 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 76 76 W 15 3453 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 75 75 N 5 3231 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 75 75 N 5 3231 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 75 75 N 5 3231 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 74 74 N 5 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 74 74 N 5 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 74 74 N 5 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 74 74 NW 7 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 73 73 NW 7 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 74 74 NW 7 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 77 77 NW 7 3675 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 81 83 NW 7 6429 4991 991 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 86 90 NW 7 11125 9060 5060 Blue 11
11 AM Sat 88 94 W 14 14114 11813 7813 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 89 96 W 14 15419 13428 9428 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 90 98 W 14 16124 14222 10222 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 91 98 W 14 16124 14222 10222 Blue 19
3 PM Sat 92 98 W 14 16124 14222 10222 Blue 19
4 PM Sat 92 96 W 14 15419 13428 9428 Blue 17
5 PM Sat 91 94 W 14 14114 11813 7813 Blue 15
6 PM Sat 89 90 W 14 11125 9060 5060 Blue 11
7 PM Sat 85 85 W 14 8166 5925 1925 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 79 79 W 14 4117 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 76 76 W 14 3453 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 75 75 W 14 3231 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 74 74 N 5 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 74 74 N 5 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 74 74 N 5 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 73 73 N 5 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 73 73 N 5 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 73 73 N 5 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 73 73 N 2 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 72 72 N 2 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 73 73 N 2 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 76 76 N 2 3453 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 80 82 N 2 5962 4112 112 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 86 90 N 2 11125 9060 5060 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 88 94 SW 8 14114 11813 7813 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 88 95 SW 8 14589 12654 8654 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 90 98 SW 8 16124 14222 10222 Blue 19
2 PM Sun 91 98 SW 8 16124 14222 10222 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 92 98 SW 8 16124 14222 10222 Blue 19
4 PM Sun 92 96 SW 8 15419 13428 9428 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 91 94 W 10 14114 11813 7813 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 89 90 W 10 11125 9060 5060 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 85 85 W 10 8166 5925 1925 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 78 78 W 10 3896 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 75 75 W 10 3231 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 74 74 W 10 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 73 73 W 2 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 73 73 W 2 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 73 73 W 2 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 72 72 W 2 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 72 72 W 2 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 72 72 W 2 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 71 71 W 2 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 71 71 W 2 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 72 72 W 2 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 75 75 W 2 3231 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 79 81 W 2 5484 4000 0 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 84 87 W 2 9145 7566 3566 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 87 93 SW 9 13678 10883 6883 Blue 14
12 Noon Mon 87 94 SW 9 14114 11813 7813 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 89 97 SW 9 15596 14039 10039 Blue 18
2 PM Mon 90 97 SW 9 15596 14039 10039 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 91 97 SW 9 15596 14039 10039 Blue 18
4 PM Mon 91 95 SW 9 14589 12654 8654 Blue 16
5 PM Mon 90 93 W 10 13678 10883 6883 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 88 89 W 10 10194 8590 4590 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 84 84 W 10 7637 5453 1453 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 77 77 W 10 3675 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 74 74 W 10 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 73 73 W 10 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 72 72 W 3 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 72 72 W 3 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 72 72 W 3 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 72 72 W 3 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 71 71 W 3 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 71 71 W 3 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 71 71 W 2 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 70 70 W 2 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 72 72 W 2 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 75 75 W 2 3231 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 78 80 W 2 5003 4000 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 84 87 W 2 9145 7566 3566 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 86 92 SW 9 12901 10040 6040 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 87 94 SW 9 14114 11813 7813 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 88 96 SW 9 15419 13428 9428 Blue 17
2 PM Tue 89 96 SW 9 15419 13428 9428 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 90 96 SW 9 15419 13428 9428 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 90 94 SW 9 14114 11813 7813 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 89 92 W 9 12901 10040 6040 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 88 89 W 9 10194 8590 4590 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 84 84 W 9 7637 5453 1453 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 78 78 W 9 3896 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 76 76 W 9 3453 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 74 74 W 9 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 74 74 W 2 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 74 74 W 2 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 74 74 W 2 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 73 73 W 2 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 73 73 W 2 3153 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 73 73 W 2 3153 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com