Detailed Predictions for: Goat Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 4000
LZ Altitude (f): 2500
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

11 DEC 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 36 36 N 12 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 35 35 N 12 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 35 35 N 12 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 35 35 N 12 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 39 39 N 12 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 42 42 N 12 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 47 48 N 12 5007 4000 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 51 53 N 12 5490 5284 1284 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 53 55 N 12 5969 5410 1410 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 53 55 N 12 5969 5410 1410 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 52 53 N 12 5490 5284 1284 Blue 6
3 PM Tue 49 49 N 12 5225 4000 0 Blue 2
4 PM Tue 46 46 N 15 3809 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 41 41 N 15 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 40 40 N 15 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 38 38 N 16 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 38 38 N 16 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 38 38 N 16 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 38 38 N 15 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 38 38 N 15 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 37 37 N 15 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 38 38 N 14 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 37 37 N 14 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 37 37 N 14 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 37 37 N 17 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 36 36 N 17 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 36 36 N 17 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 36 36 N 15 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 39 39 N 15 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 43 43 N 15 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 48 49 N 14 5225 4000 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 51 52 N 14 5414 5221 1221 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 54 55 N 14 5969 5410 1410 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 53 54 N 10 5589 5347 1347 Blue 7
2 PM Wed 52 53 N 10 5490 5284 1284 Blue 6
3 PM Wed 50 50 N 10 5288 4293 293 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 46 46 N 12 3809 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 41 41 N 12 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 39 39 N 12 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 38 38 N 12 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 38 38 N 12 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 38 38 N 12 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 38 38 N 6 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 38 38 N 6 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 37 37 N 6 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 38 38 N 6 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 37 37 N 6 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 37 37 N 6 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 36 36 E 3 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 36 36 E 3 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 36 36 E 3 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 36 36 E 3 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 40 40 E 3 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 44 44 E 3 2770 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 51 52 S 8 5414 5221 1221 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 55 57 S 8 6922 5582 1582 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 58 60 S 8 7419 6868 2868 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 58 60 S 8 7419 6868 2868 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 56 57 S 8 6922 5582 1582 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 54 54 S 8 5589 5347 1347 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 49 49 SE 12 5225 4000 0 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 45 45 SE 12 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 43 43 SE 12 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 42 42 SE 12 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 41 41 SE 12 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 41 41 SE 12 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 41 41 SE 14 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 41 41 SE 14 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 40 40 SE 14 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 41 41 SE 14 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 40 40 SE 14 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 40 40 SE 14 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 40 40 S 13 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 39 39 S 13 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 39 39 S 13 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 39 39 S 13 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 42 42 S 13 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 45 45 S 13 3297 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 50 50 S 12 5288 4293 293 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 53 53 S 12 5490 5284 1284 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 55 55 S 12 5969 5410 1410 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 54 54 S 12 5589 5347 1347 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 53 53 S 12 5490 5284 1284 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 51 51 S 12 5351 4970 970 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 47 47 S 9 4308 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 43 43 S 9 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 42 42 S 9 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 41 41 S 9 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 40 40 S 9 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 40 40 S 9 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 40 40 W 8 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 40 40 W 8 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 40 40 W 8 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 40 40 W 8 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 40 40 W 8 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 W 8 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 39 39 N 6 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 38 38 N 6 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 38 38 N 6 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 38 38 N 6 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 41 41 N 6 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 44 44 N 6 2770 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 47 47 SE 8 4308 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 50 51 SE 8 5351 4970 970 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 52 53 SE 8 5490 5284 1284 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 52 53 SE 8 5490 5284 1284 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 51 51 SE 8 5351 4970 970 Blue 4
3 PM Sat 49 49 SE 8 5225 4000 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 46 46 SE 7 3809 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 43 43 SE 7 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 42 42 SE 7 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 41 41 SE 7 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 40 40 SE 7 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 41 41 SE 7 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 41 41 S 10 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 41 41 S 10 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 40 40 S 10 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 41 41 S 10 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 40 40 S 10 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 40 40 S 10 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 40 40 S 10 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 39 39 S 10 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 39 39 S 10 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 39 39 S 10 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 42 42 S 10 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 44 S 10 2770 4000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 47 47 S 16 4308 4000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 49 49 S 16 5225 4000 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 51 51 S 16 5351 4970 970 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 51 51 S 16 5351 4970 970 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 50 50 S 16 5288 4293 293 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 48 48 S 16 5007 4000 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 46 46 S 14 3809 4000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 43 43 S 14 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 42 42 S 14 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 41 41 S 14 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 41 41 S 14 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 41 41 S 14 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 41 41 S 13 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 41 41 S 13 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 S 13 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 41 41 S 13 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 40 40 S 13 2739 4000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 40 40 S 13 2739 4000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com