Detailed Predictions for: Ft Funston
Launch Altitude (f): 200
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

16 AUG 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Thu 55 35 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 35 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 35 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 35 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 35 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 56 36 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 56 39 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 57 41 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 58 43 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 58 42 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 59 43 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 59 42 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 58 40 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 58 39 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 57 37 W 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 56 36 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 56 36 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 36 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 36 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 55 35 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 35 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 34 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 34 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 34 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 34 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 34 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 34 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 34 SW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 34 SW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 55 35 SW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 56 40 SW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 56 41 SW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 57 42 SW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 58 43 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 59 44 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 59 42 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 59 41 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 58 39 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 57 37 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 56 36 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 36 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 36 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 56 36 SW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 35 SW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 35 SW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 34 SW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 33 SW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 33 SW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 53 33 SW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 33 SW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 53 33 SW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 33 SW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 33 SW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 54 34 SW 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 56 40 SW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 56 41 SW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 58 43 SW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 59 44 SW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 60 45 SW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 61 44 SW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 60 42 SW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 60 41 SW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 58 38 SW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 57 37 SW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 57 37 SW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 57 37 SW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 56 36 SW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 36 SW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 55 35 SW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 34 SW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 34 SW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 33 SW 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 33 SW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 33 SW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 33 SW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 33 SW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 33 SW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 54 34 SW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 55 39 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 56 41 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 57 42 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 58 43 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 59 44 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 59 42 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 59 41 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 58 39 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 57 37 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 56 36 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 36 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 36 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 36 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 35 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 35 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 34 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 34 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 33 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 33 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 33 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 33 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 33 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 53 33 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 54 34 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 55 39 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 56 41 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 57 42 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 57 42 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 58 42 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 58 41 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 58 40 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 58 39 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 57 37 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 36 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 36 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 36 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 56 36 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 35 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 35 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 34 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 34 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 34 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 34 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 33 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 53 33 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 33 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 34 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 54 34 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 55 39 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 56 41 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 57 42 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 58 43 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 58 42 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 59 42 W 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 58 40 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 58 39 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 57 37 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 56 36 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 36 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 36 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 36 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 35 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 35 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 34 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 34 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 34 W 7 0 200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com