Detailed Predictions for: Ft Funston
Launch Altitude (f): 200
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 11 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
7 AM Thu 41 21 SW 2 125 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 43 23 SW 2 125 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 27 SW 2 125 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 49 31 W 3 125 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 53 35 W 3 125 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 55 38 W 3 125 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 59 42 S 4 125 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 59 41 S 4 125 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 59 40 S 4 125 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 57 37 SW 7 125 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 56 36 SW 7 125 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 54 34 SW 7 125 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 53 33 SW 5 125 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 52 32 SW 5 125 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 51 31 SW 5 125 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 51 31 SW 3 125 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 30 SW 3 125 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 29 SW 3 125 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 30 S 4 125 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 29 S 4 125 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 28 S 4 125 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 28 S 6 125 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 27 S 6 125 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 27 S 6 125 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 27 S 6 125 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 28 S 6 125 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 49 29 S 6 125 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 51 31 S 13 125 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 53 33 S 13 125 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 54 34 S 13 125 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 55 35 S 13 125 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 56 36 S 13 125 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 55 35 S 13 125 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 54 34 SW 12 125 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 53 33 SW 12 125 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 52 32 SW 12 125 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 50 30 SW 12 125 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 50 30 SW 12 125 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 49 29 SW 12 125 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 48 28 W 8 125 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 48 28 W 8 125 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 47 27 W 8 125 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 28 W 8 125 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 47 27 W 8 125 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 26 W 8 125 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 26 NW 5 125 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 26 NW 5 125 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 26 NW 5 125 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 25 NW 5 125 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 47 27 NW 5 125 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 48 29 NW 5 125 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 51 33 N 6 125 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 54 37 N 6 125 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 55 38 N 6 125 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 58 41 N 6 125 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 58 40 N 6 125 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 58 40 N 6 125 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 56 37 NW 10 125 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 55 35 NW 10 125 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 53 33 NW 10 125 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 51 31 NW 10 125 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 51 31 NW 10 125 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 49 29 NW 10 125 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 48 28 NW 9 125 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 28 NW 9 125 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 47 27 NW 9 125 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 47 27 NW 9 125 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 47 27 NW 9 125 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 25 NW 9 125 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 45 25 NW 5 125 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 25 NW 5 125 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 25 NW 5 125 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 24 NW 5 125 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 26 NW 5 125 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 48 29 NW 5 125 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 51 34 N 2 125 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 55 38 N 2 125 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 57 41 N 2 125 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 61 45 N 2 469 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 62 45 N 2 469 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 61 43 N 2 218 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 59 40 W 5 125 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 58 38 W 5 125 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 56 36 W 5 125 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 54 34 W 5 125 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 53 33 W 5 125 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 32 W 5 125 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 51 31 W 4 125 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 50 30 W 4 125 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 30 W 4 125 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 30 W 4 125 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 29 W 4 125 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 28 W 4 125 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 28 NE 1 125 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 27 NE 1 125 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 27 NE 1 125 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 47 27 NE 1 125 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 28 NE 1 125 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 50 31 NE 1 125 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 54 36 E 5 125 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 57 40 E 5 125 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 59 43 E 5 218 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 63 47 E 5 730 343 143 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 63 46 E 5 595 218 18 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 62 44 E 5 344 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 60 41 S 2 125 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 60 40 S 2 125 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 58 38 S 2 125 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 56 36 S 2 125 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 36 S 2 125 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 34 S 2 125 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 53 33 W 3 125 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 53 33 W 3 125 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 52 32 W 3 125 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 52 32 W 3 125 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 32 W 3 125 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 30 W 3 125 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 30 W 3 125 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 30 W 3 125 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 30 W 3 125 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 29 W 3 125 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 31 W 3 125 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 33 W 3 125 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 54 36 W 7 125 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 57 40 W 7 125 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 59 42 W 7 125 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 61 44 W 7 344 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 62 44 W 7 344 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 61 42 W 7 125 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 59 39 NW 7 125 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 58 38 NW 7 125 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 56 36 NW 7 125 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 55 35 NW 7 125 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 54 34 NW 7 125 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 53 33 NW 7 125 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 32 NW 7 125 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 52 32 NW 7 125 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 51 31 NW 7 125 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 51 31 NW 7 125 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 31 NW 7 125 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 29 NW 7 125 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 29 W 4 125 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 29 W 4 125 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 29 W 4 125 200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com