Detailed Predictions for: Ft Funston
Launch Altitude (f): 200
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 3 SEP 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 57 37 W 2 20 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 36 W 2 20 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 57 37 W 2 20 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 59 39 S 1 20 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 64 45 S 1 20 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 68 51 S 1 20 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 71 56 SE 7 42 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 74 60 SE 7 338 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 77 64 SE 7 634 412 212 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 79 65 W 6 708 486 286 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 80 65 W 6 708 486 286 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 80 64 W 6 634 412 212 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 78 60 W 8 338 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 76 57 W 8 116 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 72 52 W 8 20 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 68 48 SW 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 64 44 SW 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 63 43 SW 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 61 41 SW 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 60 40 SW 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 59 39 SW 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 37 W 2 20 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 57 37 W 2 20 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 35 W 2 20 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 35 W 1 20 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 34 W 1 20 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 35 W 1 20 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 37 SE 3 20 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 61 42 SE 3 20 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 64 47 SE 3 20 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 67 51 SE 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 70 55 SE 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 71 57 SE 7 116 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 73 59 SW 8 264 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 74 59 SW 8 264 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 74 57 SW 8 116 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 73 55 W 9 20 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 71 51 W 9 20 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 68 48 W 9 20 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 64 44 W 9 20 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 62 42 W 9 20 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 61 41 W 9 20 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 59 39 W 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 38 W 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 37 W 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 36 W 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 36 W 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 35 W 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 35 W 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 34 W 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 34 W 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 37 W 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 61 41 W 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 65 46 W 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 68 52 W 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 71 56 W 5 42 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 73 59 W 5 264 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 75 61 W 5 413 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 76 61 W 5 413 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 76 59 W 5 264 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 75 57 W 7 116 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 73 53 W 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 70 50 W 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 66 46 W 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 64 44 W 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 62 42 W 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 61 41 NW 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 40 NW 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 59 39 NW 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 58 38 NW 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 38 NW 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 37 NW 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 57 37 NW 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 36 NW 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 36 NW 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 59 39 NW 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 63 43 NW 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 67 48 NW 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 69 54 SW 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 73 59 SW 5 264 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 75 62 SW 5 486 264 64 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 76 63 SW 5 560 338 138 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 78 64 SW 5 634 412 212 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 77 61 SW 5 413 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 76 58 W 9 190 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 74 55 W 9 20 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 71 51 W 9 20 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 67 47 W 9 20 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 64 44 W 9 20 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 62 42 W 9 20 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 61 41 W 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 60 40 W 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 59 39 W 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 37 W 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 37 W 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 36 W 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 36 W 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 35 W 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 35 W 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 37 W 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 39 W 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 42 W 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 63 47 SW 8 20 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 65 50 SW 8 20 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 66 52 SW 8 20 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 67 53 SW 8 20 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 68 53 SW 8 20 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 68 51 SW 8 20 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 67 49 W 16 20 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 65 45 W 16 20 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 64 44 W 16 20 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 61 41 W 16 20 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 60 40 W 16 20 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 59 39 W 16 20 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 38 W 10 20 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 37 W 10 20 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 37 W 10 20 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 36 W 10 20 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 36 W 10 20 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 35 W 10 20 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 35 W 9 20 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 35 W 9 20 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 35 W 9 20 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 36 W 9 20 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 38 W 9 20 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 41 W 9 20 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 62 45 W 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 64 48 W 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 65 49 W 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 66 50 W 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 67 50 W 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 67 49 W 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 66 47 W 10 20 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 64 44 W 10 20 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 63 43 W 10 20 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 60 40 W 10 20 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 38 W 10 20 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 37 W 10 20 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 36 W 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 36 W 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 35 W 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 34 W 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 34 W 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 33 W 5 20 200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com