Detailed Predictions for: Ft Funston
Launch Altitude (f): 200
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

11 DEC 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 50 30 NE 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 29 NE 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 29 NE 3 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 29 NW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 49 29 NW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 32 NW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 54 35 NW 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 56 37 NW 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 58 40 NW 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 59 40 NW 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 59 40 NW 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 58 38 NW 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 57 37 NW 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 56 36 NW 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 55 35 NW 21 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 54 34 NW 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 54 34 NW 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 53 33 NW 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 53 33 NW 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 53 33 NW 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 32 NW 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 32 NW 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 33 NW 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 32 NW 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 32 NW 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 32 NW 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 32 NW 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 32 NE 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 32 NE 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 34 NE 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 56 37 NE 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 57 38 NE 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 59 41 NE 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 59 40 NW 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 60 41 NW 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 58 38 NW 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 57 37 NW 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 55 35 NW 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 53 33 NW 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 52 32 NW 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 51 31 NW 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 51 31 NW 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 50 30 E 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 30 E 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 29 E 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 29 E 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 30 E 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 29 E 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 29 E 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 29 E 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 28 E 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 28 E 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 29 E 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 52 32 E 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 54 35 N 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 56 37 N 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 58 40 N 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 59 40 N 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 59 40 N 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 58 38 N 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 57 37 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 55 35 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 54 34 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 53 33 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 52 32 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 52 32 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 51 31 SW 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 31 SW 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 30 SW 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 31 SW 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 31 SW 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 51 31 SW 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 30 SW 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 30 SW 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 30 SW 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 30 SW 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 50 30 SW 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 53 33 SW 17 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 55 35 SW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 57 37 SW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 59 39 SW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 60 40 SW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 60 40 SW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 59 39 SW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 57 37 SW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 55 35 SW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 54 34 SW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 53 33 SW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 52 32 SW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 32 SW 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 51 31 SW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 31 SW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 30 SW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 30 SW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 30 SW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 30 SW 2 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 30 SE 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 30 SE 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 29 SE 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 29 SE 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 30 SE 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 32 SE 5 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 54 34 SE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 55 35 SE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 57 37 SE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 58 38 SE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 58 38 SE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 58 38 SE 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 57 37 S 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 56 36 S 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 55 35 S 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 54 34 S 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 54 34 S 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 54 34 S 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 53 33 S 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 53 33 S 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 33 S 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 53 33 S 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 33 S 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 53 33 S 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 33 S 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 32 S 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 32 S 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 32 S 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 33 S 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 35 S 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 56 36 S 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 57 37 S 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 59 39 S 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 59 39 S 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 60 40 S 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 59 39 S 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 58 38 S 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 56 36 S 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 55 35 S 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 54 34 S 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 54 34 S 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 54 34 S 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 33 S 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 33 S 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 32 S 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 32 S 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 33 S 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 32 S 7 0 200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com