Detailed Predictions for: Ft Funston
Launch Altitude (f): 200
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time:

 20 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Sat 48 28 W 3 20 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 27 W 3 20 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 26 W 3 20 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 47 27 W 2 20 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 30 W 2 20 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 53 34 W 2 20 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 56 38 W 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 60 43 W 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 63 46 W 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 65 48 SW 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 66 48 SW 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 67 49 SW 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 66 47 W 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 63 43 W 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 60 40 W 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 57 37 W 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 55 35 W 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 54 34 W 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 34 W 3 20 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 32 W 3 20 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 32 W 3 20 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 51 31 W 3 20 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 30 W 3 20 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 29 W 3 20 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 28 W 3 20 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 27 W 3 20 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 27 W 3 20 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 27 W 4 20 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 50 30 W 4 20 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 52 33 W 4 20 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 55 37 W 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 57 40 W 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 60 43 W 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 61 44 W 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 62 44 W 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 63 44 W 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 62 42 W 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 60 40 W 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 57 37 W 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 55 35 W 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 54 34 W 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 33 W 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 32 W 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 32 W 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 31 W 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 30 W 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 30 W 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 29 W 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 28 W 4 20 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 28 W 4 20 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 47 27 W 4 20 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 28 W 4 20 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 51 31 W 4 20 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 54 35 W 4 20 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 57 39 N 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 61 44 N 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 64 47 N 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 65 48 N 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 67 49 N 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 67 48 N 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 66 47 NW 10 20 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 64 44 NW 10 20 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 60 40 NW 10 20 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 58 38 NW 10 20 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 35 NW 10 20 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 34 NW 10 20 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 34 NW 8 20 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 52 32 NW 8 20 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 52 32 NW 8 20 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 31 NW 8 20 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 30 NW 8 20 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 29 NW 8 20 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 28 N 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 27 N 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 27 N 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 27 N 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 51 32 N 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 53 35 N 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 57 40 N 9 20 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 60 44 N 9 20 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 63 48 N 9 20 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 65 49 N 9 20 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 67 51 N 9 20 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 67 49 N 9 20 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 66 47 NW 10 20 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 64 44 NW 10 20 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 60 40 NW 10 20 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 58 38 NW 10 20 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 55 35 NW 10 20 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 34 NW 10 20 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 54 34 NW 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 32 NW 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 32 NW 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 31 NW 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 30 NW 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 29 NW 7 20 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 28 N 4 20 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 27 N 4 20 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 27 N 4 20 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 27 N 4 20 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 30 N 4 20 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 52 33 N 4 20 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 54 37 SE 2 20 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 57 40 SE 2 20 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 59 43 SE 2 20 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 60 44 SE 2 20 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 61 44 SE 2 20 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 62 44 SE 2 20 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 61 42 W 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 59 39 W 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 57 37 W 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 55 35 W 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 33 W 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 32 W 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 32 W 4 20 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 51 31 W 4 20 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 30 W 4 20 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 30 W 4 20 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 29 W 4 20 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 28 W 4 20 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 28 SW 3 20 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 27 SW 3 20 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 27 SW 3 20 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 47 27 SW 3 20 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 30 SW 3 20 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 52 33 SW 3 20 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 55 37 SW 2 20 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 58 41 SW 2 20 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 60 43 SW 2 20 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 61 44 SW 2 20 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 62 44 SW 2 20 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 63 44 SW 2 20 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 62 43 SW 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 60 40 SW 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 57 37 SW 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 34 SW 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 33 SW 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 32 SW 6 20 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 31 W 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 30 W 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 29 W 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 29 W 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 28 W 5 20 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 27 W 5 20 200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com