Detailed Predictions for: Ft Funston
Launch Altitude (f): 200
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KOAK

Date/Time:

17 FEB 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 45 25 NW 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 25 NW 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 25 NW 23 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 25 NW 29 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 26 NW 29 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 48 28 NW 29 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 49 30 NW 32 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 50 31 NW 32 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 50 32 NW 32 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 51 33 NW 35 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 51 32 NW 35 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 52 33 NW 35 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 51 31 NW 32 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 50 30 NW 32 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 49 29 NW 32 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 49 29 NW 22 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 48 28 NW 22 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 47 27 NW 22 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 26 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 45 25 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 45 25 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 26 N 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 26 N 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 25 N 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 24 N 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 24 N 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 23 N 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 22 N 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 24 N 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 48 29 N 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 50 32 N 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 51 34 N 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 52 36 N 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 54 37 NW 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 54 37 NW 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 54 36 NW 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 54 34 NW 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 53 33 NW 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 52 32 NW 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 51 31 NW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 50 30 NW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 49 29 NW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 47 27 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 46 26 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 46 26 N 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 47 27 NE 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 47 27 NE 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 26 NE 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 45 25 NE 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 44 24 NE 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 23 NE 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 22 NE 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 44 24 NE 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 47 28 NE 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 49 31 N 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 50 33 N 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 51 34 N 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 53 36 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 53 35 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 53 34 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 53 33 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 52 32 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 51 31 W 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 51 31 NW 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 50 30 NW 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 49 29 NW 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 48 28 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 47 27 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 47 27 NW 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 28 NE 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 27 NE 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 27 NE 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 26 NE 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 25 NE 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 24 NE 12 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 24 NW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 45 25 NW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 48 28 NW 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 50 31 NW 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 51 33 NW 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 52 34 NW 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 53 35 NW 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 54 35 NW 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 54 35 NW 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 53 33 NW 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 52 32 NW 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 52 32 NW 20 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 51 31 NW 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 51 31 NW 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 50 30 NW 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 48 28 NW 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 48 28 NW 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 28 NW 18 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 28 NW 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 28 NW 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 27 NW 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 26 NW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 46 26 NW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 25 NW 15 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 24 NW 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 45 25 NW 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 48 28 NW 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 50 31 N 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 51 33 N 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 51 33 N 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 52 34 N 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 53 34 N 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 53 34 N 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 52 32 NW 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 52 32 NW 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 50 30 NW 16 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 50 30 NW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 50 30 NW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 49 29 NW 14 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 47 27 N 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 46 26 N 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 46 26 N 13 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 47 27 N 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 47 27 N 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 26 N 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 25 N 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 24 N 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 24 N 10 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 23 N 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 24 N 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 47 28 N 7 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 49 31 N 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 50 32 N 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 51 34 N 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 52 35 N 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 53 35 N 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 53 34 N 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 53 33 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 52 32 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 51 31 W 9 0 200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 51 31 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 50 30 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 49 29 W 8 0 200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 48 28 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 48 28 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 47 27 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 28 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 28 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 47 27 N 6 0 200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com